My Five Favorite MIT
Frontiers
"Top 5 Cutting Edge Technologies Currently Under Research At
MIT Which Could Impact The World in a Large Way"
17 September 2002
Joost Bonsen
jpbonsen@alum.mit.edu
617.930.0415
5 Strategic MIT Technology Thrusts
1. Information Technologies = Ever more
sophisticated computation & communication,
leveraging mind & media.
2. Biomedical Technologies = Medical engineering,
perfecting the health & life sciences.
3. Tiny Technologies = Investigating and fabricating
ever smaller systems, at scales from micro thru
nano
4. Complex Systems = Large scale, socio-political
& econo-technological systems.
5. Developmental Innovations = Appropriate and
leapfrog technologies for tackling challenges in
developing & emerging regions
MIT Technology Biz Matrix
1. Info
2. Bio
3. Tiny 4.Cmplex 5. DevelSystems opmental
MIT
Research
LCS/AI,
Media, 6
HST,
BEH, 7
MTL, 3, 5, SDM, Aero,
6, 8, 16
6, 15, 14, 13
Digital Nations,
1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11
Sloan
Research
eBiz,
Mkting
POPI, ?
?
System
Dynamics,
Tech Strat
Econ, Global
Entrepreneurs
hip
Sloan
Courses
Sloan
Extracur
MIT Alum
Startups
ITBT,
eBiz
Bioventure
TES
SysDyn,
Strat, OR,
Global E-lab,
DE
MediaTech
HealthTech
TinyTech
OR, SDK12,
etc
SEID
Akamai,
DirectHit
Amgen,
Biogen
Gen’tec
Surface,
eink,
Angstr’m
HP,
Raytheon,
Teradyne
AfricaOnline,
Evergreen
Solar
http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm
1. Information Technologies
a.k.a Software
NASA
Source: Donna Coveney,
MIT / Cynthia Breazeal
•
•
•
•
•
•
Computation
Communication
Intelligence
Automation
Encryption
Media
Chan LIDS
http://www.caida.org/
SensAble Technologies
within IT…
Pervasive
Computing
Project Oxygen
• Human
Centered
Computing
• Acer, Delta,
HP, NTT,
Nokia,
Philips, darpa
http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/
MIT Media Lab Wearables
http://www.media.mit.edu/wearables/wearfolk-sam-big.jpg
http://www.media.mit.edu/wearables/mithril/index.html
Media Lab Smart Nametags
http://web.media.mit.edu/~fredm/projects/memetag/mtsmall.jpg
http://el.www.media.mit.edu/groups/el/papers/mres/lifelongk/Image26.gif
http://www.microopticalcorp.com/
Pervasive Implications
• Immersive Info – Remembrance
agents, face reminders, seamless
PDAs
• Premier Digital Infospace – Next
generation libraries, info databases &
visualization environments
• Evocative Architectural Innovations
– Digital Glass, Organic HVAC controls
http://www.emperorlinux.com/acc_network.html
http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/wireless/2001/06/08/xircom_review.html
http://www.handspring.com/
http://www.futurelooks.com/features/Lifestyle/Wearable_comps/page1_frame.htm
http://www-5.ibm.com/se/news/archive/images/computers/wearable-pc/wearable-pc-closseup-guy.jpg
2. Biomedical Technologies
•
•
•
•
•
a.k.a Wetware
Applied Biology,
Biotechnology
Diagnostics,
imaging
Therapeutics,
pharmaceuticals
Invasive or NonInvasive Devices
Instrumentation
http://gn.www.media.mit.edu/resenv/telemed/
http://www.media.mit.edu/nanoscale/research/sensors.html
Source: John Santini
within BioMedical…
Neurotechnology
Brain & Cognitive Sciences;
Increasingly, Neurotechnology
McGovern Institute for Brain Research
Martinos Imaging Center
Picower Center for Learning & Memory
BCS Department
RLE, AI Lab…
Patrick McGovern & Lore Harp McGovern
http://idg.com/www/docs.nsf/docs/McGoverns?OpenDocument&region=WW
Neurodiagnostic Imaging & Probes
http://rabi.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/~adunn/speckle/index.html
http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/
Decision, Emotion, Addiction,
& Habit Analysis
Affective Computing
Psychophysiology of
Real-time Trading
http://lfe.mit.edu/media/snow04-08-02.htm
http://affect.media.mit.edu/AC_research/images/AC_system_sketch2.jpg
http://web.mit.edu/alo/www/Papers/repin.pdf
Artificial Senses
http://rleweb.mit.edu/graphics/oculimp.jpg
http://rleweb.mit.edu/Publications/currents/9-2cov.htm
Retina
Cochlea
http://rleweb.mit.edu/graphics/ph97-71a.jpg
Nerve Regeneration
Neurons grown on Peptide Scaffold
http://web.mit.edu/bcs/brainlunch/schedule/schneider.gif
http://web.mit.edu/lms/www/images/shuguang.jpg
3. Tiny Technologies
a.k.a Hardware
• MicroPhotonics
• Materials: smart,
active, living, rugged
Kerrebrock Group
• MEMS: micro-electromechanical
• NEMS: nanotechnology,
NanoStructures
• NanoMedia
Lieber Science 289: 94-97
• Quantum Dots,
Computing
• Fabrication techniques
Joe Jacobson
http://amsl.mit.edu/research/projects.gif
Montemagno Group
within TinyTech…
Nanobiotechnology
Engineering at Different Scales: Dimensions in
diatom
Silicon
and
in
Biology
30 m
DNA
Simple
red blood cell
~5 m (SEM)
proteins
nm
molecules
<1nm
bacteria
1 m
10-10
10-9
10-8
10-7
10-6
m
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
SOI transistor
width 0.12m
semiconductor
nanocrystal (CdSe)
Nanometer memory element
5nm
(Lieber)
1012 bits/cm2 (1Tbit/cm2)
Source: Molecular Machines (Jacobson) Group
Circuit design
Copper wiring
width 0.2m
IBM PowerPC 750TM
Microprocessor
7.56mm×8.799mm
6.35×106 transistors
Active
Materials
Source:
http://amsl.mit.edu/
research/projects.gif
Prostheses
&
ExoSkeletons
http://www.discover.com/images/apr01_ft1.jpg
http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/images/prototype11201.jpg
Drawing Inspiration & More
from Biology
• Ribosomes
• Flagellar
Motors
• Muscles
• …
http://www.rcsb.org/pdb/molecules/pdb10_1.html
http://www.rae.org/revev6.html
http://www.kapili.com/f/art/filament1.gif
http://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/biophysics/Intro.html
http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/ce/flagella-s.gif
http://gened.emc.maricopa.edu/bio/bio181/BIOBK/BioBookAnimalTS.html
What Might the Future Soldier Wear?
Institute for
Soldier
Nanotechnology
• Protective
Suits
• Human
Augmentation
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isn.html
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jun2001/200105153a.jpg
Thomas
“It looks a lot like
Science Fiction!”
http://www.horizoncomics.com/radix/
-- MIT Student & Comic Book Fan
Protective Suits,
Living Suits
http://www.cnn.com/2000/TECH/space/07/14/contaminated.spacesuit.02/nasa.spacesuit.jpg
http://web.mit.edu/jblaya/www/project/seireg1.jpg
http://www.robots.org/images/exoskeleton-4.jpg
http://www.eig.net/level%20one/technical.html
Life-Like
Automata
http://www.ai.mit.edu/projects/living-machines/projects/self-feeding.shtml
http://www.ai.mit.edu/projects/humanoid-robotics-group/cog/current-projects.html
Cellular
Robotics
http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/ce/microbial-engineering.html
http://web.mit.edu/biophysics/movies/vort2.AVI
4. Complex Systems
a.k.a. Messyware
• Environmental
• Big Systems: space, air
traffic, 777, power grid,
internet
• Social: Organizational,
entrepreneurial, business,
cultural
http://www.nasm.si.edu/apollo/FIGURES/Fig42a.jpg
within Complex Systems…
Sociotechnology
Sensing, Modeling &
Understanding Social Systems…
•
•
•
•
•
Supply Chains
Business Cycles
Economies
Urban Dynamics
World Dynamics
…Enough to Improve their
Dynamics!
Social Net Analysis & Facilitation
Dynamic Visualization
• Understanding social
relationshiops
• Guiding flows of
information
• Real knowledge
management
• Orchestrating
Facilitator
Serendipity
Room
http://www.netvis.org/
http://whitechapel.media.mit.edu/facilitator/introduction.html
Predictive Microcosms
http://www.cothink.com/Papers/phdthesis.pdf
Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:
“The Bullwhip Effect”
Customer
Retailer
Distributor
Information lags
Delivery lags
Over- and underordering
Misperceptions of feedback
Lumpiness in ordering
Chain accumulations
Factory
Tier 1 Supplier Equipment
SOLUTIONS:
Countercyclical Markets
Countercyclical Technologies
Collaborative channel mgmt.
(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)
Source: Fine, MIT
Management “Flight Simulators”
Urban
Dynamics
http://www.glasswings.com.au/reviews/simcity2.jpg
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/SDG/beergame.html
“Beer Game”
http://www.gamespot.com/features/maxis/screens/wright.jpg
Transistors per chip
Moore’s Law
109
?
108
Pentium 80786
Pro
107
80486
Pentium
106
80386
80286
105
8086
8080
104
4004
103
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999
Source: Fine, MIT
Roadmap for Electronic Devices
Number of chip components
295oK
1018
Classical Age
Quantum Age
1016
77oK
1014
4oK
2010
SIA Roadmap 2005
Quantum State Switch
2000
1995
1012
1010
108 Historical Trend
1990
6
10
1980
104
CMOS
1970
102
101
100
10-1
Feature size (microns)
Horst D. Simon
10-2
10-3
Source: Fine, MIT
Components of MIT’s Interwoven
Technology Roadmapping Effort
1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamicslike models of the bullwhip effect)
2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version
of the double helix in Fine’s Clockspeed book)
3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize
Porter-like analyses for players in the value chain)
4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor
Industry Association's roadmap built around
Moore's law)
5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National,
Cross Sector
Source: Fine, MIT
Performance in
Organizations
http://web.mit.edu/nelsonr/www/NobodyEverV2_0-sub_doc.pdf
5. Developmental Innovations
a.k.a Everywhere
• Development
Technologies
• MicroFinance
• Developmental
Entrepreneurship
• Sensible Policy
Ravi Kuchimanchi, AID-India
http://www.thinkcycle.org
http://www.simputer.org/
Murcott Group, Civil Engineering
http://www.thinkcycle.org
Evergreen Solar
within Development…
Exponential
Technologies
Exponential
Technologies
Hi-Leverage & Transformative
e.g. Portable Computers
for the people
e.g. Cellphones per village
e.g. Intellectual capital development
via school or innovator network
system
e.g. Financial & Legal infrastructure
Exponentially
Growing,
Accelerating;
Leapfrog
Quality
Two Dimensions
PERFORMANCE
• PENETRATION
• Functionality goes
• Diffusion is
exponential for a given exponential and
amount of money
fast, possibly viral
• Price plummets
exponentially for a
given amount of
functionality or
performance
Infocom: Webios
• Web analog to
transistor radio
• Simputer
http://www.simputer.org/
http://www.picopeta.com/
http://history.acusd.edu/gen/recording/transistor.html
http://www.lanka.net/lakehouse/2001/06/03/fea10.html
http://www.media.mit.edu/windup/
Infocom: Universal Translator
• Reduce
misunderstandings
• Increase flow of
trade
• Teaching tool
http://www.zdnet.com/computershopper/edit/cshopper/content/9806/309164.html
http://www.via-pc.com/
Infocom: Printed Electronics
• Printed PCs?
• Printed PDAs?
• Electronic Ink
applications
Eink, Media Lab Spinoff
Nishi Group, Media Lab
Jacobson Group, Media Lab
http://www.media.mit.edu/molecular/projects.html
http://www.eink.com/
Health: Penny Diagnostics
• Disease
• Contamination
• Analogous to pH or
Litmus paper
• Telediagnostics
http://gn.www.media.mit.edu/resenv/telemed/
http://www.media.mit.edu/nanoscale/research/sensors.html
Finance: MicroCredit,
MicroFinance, MicroVC
• Credit = loans and
lines of credit, debt
• Finance = more
general financial
services
• VC = risk capital,
equity
• Monetizing Social
Capital
http://www.accion.org/main.asp
http://www.endeavor.org/
http://www.grameen.org
http://www.uncdf.org/sum/
…
Education: OpenSource
Ideation & Training
e.g.OpenCourseWare / Distance Learning
• Bringing MIT to the
world instead of the
world to MIT
• Generalizing
• Talent identification
http://web.mit.edu/afs/athena/org/o/ocw/
Richly Interwoven MIT Themes
1. InfoTech
2. BioTech
4. Complex
Systems
3. TinyTech
5. Developmental
Innovations
Fin