Submission by the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance to the Intergovernmental Committee on Drug’s Draft National Tobacco Strategy 2012 – 2018 Introduction 1. The following is a submission to the Intergovernmental Committee on Drug’s draft National Tobacco Strategy 2012 – 2018 by the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance. 2. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA) was launched on 1 May as a grassroots activist organisations dedicated to protecting the rights of taxpayers against undue governmental interference. The ATA presently counts over 25,000 members. 3. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance is dedicated to firmly opposing excessive taxation, over-regulation, maladministration of taxpayer funds, and the everencroaching nanny state. For further information, please visit Australian Taxpayers Alliance website 4. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance receives is NOT affiliated with and receives NO funding from tobacco or associated industries. Summary 5. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance expresses its unreserved opposition to the proposed recommendations of the National Tobacco Strategy 2012: A Strategy to improve the health of all Australians by reducing the prevalence of smoking and its associated health, social and economic costs, and the inequalities it causes. 6. It is submitted that if enacted, these recommendations would violate accepted standards of medical ethics, and shall unduly burden Australian taxpayers, particularly low income earners, through further increases in taxation and expenditure, and shall unfairly restrict the freedom of choice of Australian consumers. 7. It is further submitted that these recommendations have no sound basis in evidence, and shall not achieve any public health benefits or lead to a reduction in smoking rates. 8. The ATA also wishes to note its concern that the Draft Report was not made more widely available, and that there was no effort made to provide the document to the public for discussion. Such an approach results in only the most vehement vested interests submitting comments, with resulting poor governance outcomes. 9. The ATA furthermore wishes to note the extreme hypocrisy that all persons and/or organisations who lodge comments are required to disclose whether they receive tobacco funding as a way of smearing their integrity or the validity of their arguments. The ATA firmly believes that prior to impugning someone’s motives, their argument must be answered, and this does not seem to be the case in this instance. Furthermore, the ATA wishes to express its concerns at the double standard applied by the Intergovernmental Committee, and that neither taxpayer funded tobacco-control activists, nor bodies sponsored by pharmaceutical industry with a vested interest in promoting taxpayer subsidies of smoking cession drugs, are required to disclose funding. Overall aims and objectives 10. It is submitted that the entire basis of the National Tobacco Strategy as an article of social engineering to remove individuals’ choice and manipulate their behaviour is fundamentally flawed. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance recognises the need for appropriate information and awareness of the harms associated with the use of tobacco. However, as such harms are well established, persons should be free to choose whether to use tobacco products and accept personal responsibility for the consequences. The role of government ought not include the micro-management of personal behaviour 11. It is further submitted that the stated aims of reducing smoking rates to 0% over the long term discounts the fact that individuals can make the rational choice that their personal enjoyment of tobacco products outweighs the health costs that they may suffer as a result. The ATA strongly argues that government bureaucrats ought not have the right to impose their value preferences on Australian consumers without exception. As such, the inability of Australians to choose to ‘opt out ‘ of these health measures, and to exercise their own freedom of choice in regards to their bodies, is gravely disturbing; the concept of “my body, my choice” is a fundamental principle in all other areas of health policy, it ought apply here also. 12. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance further notes its alarm that many of the policies used initially to restrict citizens choice regarding tobacco are being used to regulate other industries, such as alcohol and various foods and beverages. There is no doubt whatsoever that the slippery slope argument once derided by tobacco-control advocates has been conclusively proven. As such, if this draft is enacted, empirical evidence from other campaigns suggests that its recommendations shall be expanded to other industries. Medical ethics & public health intervention 13. It is submitted that within the field of medical ethics, the principle of autonomy has established itself as the guiding principle for any health intervention 14. We note the words of Feiring writing in the Journal of Medical Ethics as expressing the core underpinnings of the field of medical ethics as it pertains to public health intervention: Given that respect for the autonomous choices of patients runs deep in modern healthcare, there are strong reasons to value the claim that competent and well-informed individuals are the best interpreters of their own interest and that they should be free to make choices others would regard as non-beneficial to them (Feiring E, Lifestyle, responsibility and justice. Journal of Medical Ethics 2008 34: 33–36.) 15. In determining when public health outcomes may justify over-riding the principle of autonomy, two criteria are commonly used by proponents of intervention: 1) That individuals lack the capacity to choose, and 2)That health care costs justify the intrusion. 16. It is submitted that neither of these conditions ought be considered valid in this case for the reasons articulated by Dr. Michael Keane, a member of the ATA Board of Advisers and Adjunct Lecturer School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University: What standard should be used when judging people’s competence to autonomously choose to consume a product? Electing to do something that may lead to a harmful outcome does not define a lack of understanding of the consequences. (Keane, M. Public Health Interventions Need to Meet the Same Standards of Medical Ethics as Individual Health Interventions. American Journal of Bioethics. Volume 10, Number 3 2012 p37) 17. Dr. Keane further developed these thoughts in a submission to the Public Consultation on Plain Packaging of Tobacco Products: In order to justify such proposals, it would need to be convincingly demonstrated that adult smokers do not have the capacity to understand the adverse effects of smoking. This is clearly not the case. Secondly, although some may believe the argument that smoking is due to a nicotine addiction and people, therefore, cannot make a voluntary decision, this is factually inaccurate. While it may be difficult for persons to cease smoking, it is a decision that rests with the individual. All international psychiatric classifications come to the same agreement. If it was not ultimately a voluntary behaviour it would be classified as a psychotic condition. This is not the case. 18. As such, it is submitted that the argument that individuals lack the capacity to choose, and as such there ought be governmental intervention, is invalid. 19. In examining the argument that the cost of health care ought over-ride autonomy, it is firstly submitted that the evidence demonstrates that through a combination of higher taxation and lower lifespan expenditure, smokers are not a net cost on the Australian taxpayer. It is secondly submitted that even if that were not the case, this line of argument is not ethically valid. 20. Numerous international studies have examined the cost to taxpayers of smokers and demonstrated that smokers, on net¸ save taxpayers money. Obviously, it is not the position of the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance that smoking is a positive due to the cost savings. However, the evidence (as listed by Christopher Snowdon) does demonstrate that the premise underlying the argument that autonomy ought be curtailed due to the cost of healthcare is factually inaccurate: A more complete accounting of the health costs of smoking not only increases the size of the costs, but also reallocates costs and implies net financial benefits for some parties. Governments save on the costs of old-age medical care, social security, and nursing home care due to the earlier death of smokers. (This result does not mean that it is desirable that people die early; it means that in determining financial cost, if that is the justification for a payment, a correct measure of the loss will only be calculated if these effects are included.) Smoking has apparently brought financial gain to both the federal and state governments, especially when tobacco taxes are taken into account. In general, smokers do not appear to currently impose net financial costs on the rest of society. - The Proposed Tobacco Settlement: Who Pays for the Health Costs of Smoking? Gravelle, 1998 Net additional external costs borne by non-smokers worked out to $244 million for Canada in 1986. However, smokers are responsible for a much larger flow in the other direction. In the pension area alone, non-smokers benefit from a transfer of $1.4 billion mainly because smokers tend to die before non-smokers do if we use risk coefficients established by the medical profession. Finally, the massive tax burden borne by smokers alone means that they account for a further transfer of close to $3.2 billion to the benefit of non-smokers. Smokers' burden on society: Myth and reality in Canada, Raynauld, 1992 Despite the higher annual costs of the obese and smoking cohorts, the healthy-living cohort incurs highest lifetime costs, due to its higher life expectancy, as shown in Table 1. Furthermore, the greatest differences in health-care costs are not caused by smoking- and obesity-related diseases, but by the other, unrelated, diseases that occur as life-years are gained (Table 1). Therefore, successful prevention of obesity and smoking would result in lower health-care costs in the short run (assuming no costs of prevention), but in the long run they would result in higher costs. Lifetime Medical Costs of Obesity: Prevention No Cure for Increasing Health Expenditure, van Baal, 2008 The widespread belief that smokers do not pay their own way is the result of repeated assertions that are totally lacking in empirical support. There is simply no evidence that smokers impose costs on others by making more use of medical care than do nonsmokers. Social cost and the cigarette excise tax: A misguided rationale for an inefficient and unfair policy, D. Lee, 1995 The proper goal of tobacco taxation policy should be to recoup only the extra costs that smokers place on others (at most a $1/pack tax on cigarettes) Risk perception, addiction, and costs to others: An assessment of cigarette taxes and other antismoking policies, Menzel, 2005 On balance, most studies find that smokers cost the government less in terms of health care outlays than the sum of what they save the government in unclaimed retirement benefits and pay the government in tobacco taxes at existing tax rates. Confusing, misleading CDC figures on economic costs of smoking, Entin, 2002 Although nonsmokers subsidize smokers' medical care and group life insurance, smokers subsidize nonsmokers' pensions and nursing home payments. On balance, smokers probably pay their way at the current level of excise taxes on cigarettes; but one may, nonetheless, wish to raise those taxes to reduce the number of adolescent smokers. In contrast, drinkers do not pay their way: current excise taxes on alcohol cover only about half the costs imposed on others. The Taxes of Sin: Do Smokers and Drinkers pay their way?, Manning, 1989 The results imply that lifetime expenditure is higher for nonsmokers than for smokers because smokers' higher annual utilization rates are overcompensated for by nonsmokers' higher life expectancy. Population simulation, taking into account the effects of past smoking on present population size and composition, suggests that 1976 expenditure would have been the same if no male born since 1876 had ever smoked. The male population would have been larger, particularly at older ages, increasing medical care expenditure, but this increase would have been offset by lower annual medical care utilization rates. Thus the results imply that smoking does not increase medical care expenditure and, therefore, reducing smoking is unlikely to decrease it. Does smoking increase medical care expenditure? Leu, 1982 Results: Health care costs for smokers at a given age are as much as 40 percent higher than those for nonsmokers, but in a population in which no one smoked the costs would be 7 percent higher among men and 4 percent higher among womenthan the costs in the current mixed population of smokers and nonsmokers. Conclusions: If people stopped smoking, there would be a savings in health care costs, but only in the short term. Eventually, smoking cessation would lead to increased health care costs. The Health Care Costs of Smoking, Barendregt 1997 There was no difference in sickness absence between smokers and non-smokers, however there was an increase in sickness absence with increasing Body Mass Index (BMI) (correlation coefficient 10.9 %-p=0.005) and perhaps surprisingly there was an increase in sickness absence with increasing exercise participation (correlation coefficient 7.7% p=0.045). Do smoking, body mass and exercise affect sickness absence and job satisfaction?, Critchley (2006) The study found that although annual health-care costs are highest for obese people earlier in life (until age 56 years), and are highest for smokers at older ages, the ultimate lifetime costs are highest for the healthy (nonsmoking, nonobese) people. Does Preventing Obesity Lead to Reduced Health-Care Costs?, McPherson, 2008 21. It is further noted that since many of these studies were conducted, tobacco taxes have risen substantially and, therefore, the government's net profit from smokers has increased further, meaning the net effect regarding public health costs is even greater in terms of monies saved. 22. Even if the aforementioned studies were ignored, it is submitted that the costsavings line is morally and ethically invalid for the reasons articulated by Dr. Keane in the previously cited piece in the Journal of Bioethics: If the health care cost argument is accepted, then we have to accept the ethical precedent that this sets. It would then be ethically permissible to forcibly inflict medical treatment on a legally competent adult against that person’s will as long as that treatment would lower government expenditure. 23. It is submitted that such an argument is morally reprehensible and ought not be the basis of government action. 24. For the reasons outlined, is submitted that the recommendations of the Draft Report do not meet the necessary requirements for usurping established principles in medical ethics and do not meet the requirement to usurp the established concept of freedom and individual autonomy. Priority Areas 25. It is submitted that in the event that the ethical and public policy points presented above prove insufficient to overturn the recommendations, that the specific action items in the eight priority areas listed are fundamentally flawed, and that the recommendations are neither desirable nor feasible to attain. Strengthen social marketing campaigns to discourage uptake of smoking, motivating smokers to quit; prevent relapse; and reshape social norms about smoking 26. Actions 6.1.1 through 6.1.8 calls on further taxpayer expenditure on social engineering campaigns, both directly by Australian governments and through NGO’s. 27. The Australian Taxpayer’s Alliance strongly opposes the implementation of these recommendations. Australian taxpayers already pay for considerable expenditure on media campaigns, both directly and through NGO funding, and there is no justification for the burden on taxpayers to be increased. 28. It is further submitted that Australians are well aware of harm that tobacco may cause, and that that empirical evidence has demonstrated that the effectiveness of such campaigns has diminished to the point of being statistically nil, a point tacitly acknowledged in the report with the plateauing of a decline in smoker numbers. 29. Furthermore, research conducted at the University of Missouri published in the Journal of Medical Psychology in August 2011, has found that anti-smoking campaigns are not only ineffective, but may backfire and retard smoking cessation: A combination of disturbing images and threatening messages to prevent smoking is not effective and could potentially cause an unexpected reaction. . . . Showing viewers a combination of threatening and disgusting television public service announcements (PSAs) caused viewers to experience the beginnings of strong defensive reactions. The researchers found that when viewers saw the PSAs with both threatening and disgusting material, they tended to withdraw mental resources from processing the messages while simultaneously reducing the intensity of their emotional responses. Leshner says that these types of images could possibly have a “boomerang effect,” meaning the defensive reactions could be so strong that they cause viewers to stop processing the messages in the PSAs. 30. The writings of Dr. Michael Siegel, a long-time tobacco control advocate and Professor of Community Health Sciences at Boston University School of Public Health who previously worked in the office of Smoking and Health at the CDS Control researching tobacco advertising, prove instructive: The key problem with a defensive reaction is that the viewer no longer attends to the message and processing of the message ends abruptly. In addition, the message likely induces psychological reactance, a feeling of threatened loss of freedom and control which is best relieved by ignoring or dismissing the warning and smoking a cigarette. – For more information please visit Tobacco Analysis BlogSpot website 31. As such, as there is no convincing evidence of these campaigns being effective, despite their high cost to taxpayers, it is reiterated that these actions ought not be taken. Continue to Reduce the Affordability of Tobacco Products 32. Recommendations 6.2.1-6.2.10 revolve around increasing the burden on taxpayers, combined with taxpayer subsidies for pharmaceutical companies. 33. Australia presently has a relatively high tax on tobacco and tobacco products (Sijbren Cnossen, Excise Taxation in Australia, 2009), and one of the highest in the Asia-Pacific Region. 34. Tobacco excise tax and customs duties generated approximately $7.4 billion in government revenue during 2010-2011 (For more information please visit Australian Government Budget website,) 35. Research by the Institute of Public Affairs has revealed that low income earners are disproportionally hit by such taxes, paying three times more than higher income demographics (Nanny State Taxes: Soaking The Poor in 2012). As such, it is submitted that the attack on lower-income earners that these recommendations for a regressive tax represent are unconscionable as a matter of public policy fairness. 36. Furthermore, it is noted that, as demonstrated in the IPA report, increasing the tobacco tax will often lead not to a reduction in smoking, but in dispensable income that would otherwise be used to purchase other consumer products being used to purchase tobacco, hurting the retail sector and the Australian economy. 37. It is further submitted that any increase in tobacco taxes will cause a shift to illicit tobacco, sourced either via counterfeiting or smuggling. 38. Recent increases in the tobacco excise has already caused a sharp increase in the illicit trade in tobacco products from an estimated 12.3% of the legal Tobacco market in 2009 to 15.9% in 2010 (Deloitte, Illicit trade of tobacco in Australia – June 2011 Update, June 2011, p 3). 39. Although the draft report notes the problem of illicit tobacco, its premise that only 1.5% of smokers use unbranded tobacco is faulty, as it does not factor in the fact that many persons do so unknowingly, do not report their use of it, or purchase branded tobacco from overseas. It is further submitted that the comments regarding tobacco smuggling in the report may only lip service to the issue, and shall do nothing to reduce its prevalence. 40. It is submitted that there can be no health benefits from a policy which shall lead to persons switching from a regulated tobacco product to an unregulated counterfeit one. According to the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, there are an estimated 600 billion counterfeited and smuggled cigarettes crossing national borders each year ( For more information please visit Science 2.0 website) 41. In 2009, the UK government reported the loss of 2 billion pounds in tax revenue through illegal cigarette smuggling (For more information Please visit Telegraph website). 42. The inferior quality of counterfeit cigarettes will lead to a worsening of health outcomes if taxation is increased: a 2003 report by the BBC noted that counterfeit cigarettes contain 75% more tar, 28% more nicotine and about 63% more carbon monoxide than genuine cigarettes 43. Furthermore, smuggling is a serious crime, with severe consequences. In its 2009/10 Annual Report, The Australian Customs and Border Protection Service also recognised the growing involvement of organised crime in tobacco smuggling stating: “Transnational organised crime is growing in its reach and sophistication. The high profits associated with illicit drug, precursor and tobacco trafficking ensure that these commodities will continue to attract organised crime involvement.” Beyond the revenue risk, the report explained, tobacco smuggling “poses public health risks and the majority of criminal entities involved are experienced, highly organised and extensively networked.” 44. The Australian Crime Commission has made similar comments in its report, Organised Crime in Australia 2011 at page 18: Organised crime networks have been linked to the importation of counterfeit cigarettes and loose tobacco. Significant government revenue is avoided through the activities of groups involved in illicit tobacco importation and illicit growing, curing, manufacture and sale of tobacco products. The successful interdiction of illicit tobacco products at the border, the high illicit profits and increases in the excise duty on tobacco products are likely to increasingly attract organised crime groups to the illicit tobacco market. 45. The ATA is concerned that for all the lip service paid to tobacco smuggling, the draft report does not place sufficient emphasis upon the negative impact of tobacco smuggling, or the fact that people die as a result of the illegal cigarette trade, just as they do as a result of drug and human trafficking (For more information Please visit Reporting Project website). 46. In the 1990’s, the smuggling of cigarettes in Berlin caused “a surge in ganglandstyle executions and turf wars that made Berlin streets more dangerous than at any time since World War II”: “Turf battles between the Vietnamese gangs that control street-level sales have been blamed for the deaths of 40 Vietnamese, 15 in Berlin alone. These killings are the latest episode in a bloody gang war over Berlin's lucrative trade in smuggled cigarettes.” In the Balkans, “high-profile killings connected to illicit tobacco networks have claimed journalists, intelligence officers, politicians and the criminals themselves”. In 2009, police just outside Washington DC arrested 14 members of a contraband cigarette ring for attempting to murder their competition. 47. Furthermore, the shift from legal to illicit tobacco shall create significant opportunities for illegal and terrorist organisations to benefit. A 2003 report by the US-based non-partisan Cato Institute concludes that “a wide range of terrorist groups are known to use the proceeds from cigarette smuggling to fund their operation. For example, counterfeit cigarette tax stamps were found in an apartment used by members of the Egyptian Jihad cell that carried out the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.” 48. In 2008, a U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee report concluded that “Law enforcement officials in New York State [alone!] estimate that well-organized cigarette smuggling networks generate between $200,000$300,000 per week. A large percentage of the money is believed to be sent back to the Middle East, where it directly or indirectly finances groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and al-Qaeda.” Examples of terrorism being financed by tobacco smuggling are numerous. In 2001, Aref Ahmed was convicted of smuggling tobacco to finance the infamous “Lackawanna Six” Islamic-terror cell’s attendance at al-Qaeda’s al Farooq training camp in Afghanistan. In 2002, 26 Hezbollah terrorist cell agents in North Carolina were convicted for selling $7 million worth of bootleg tobacco, planning to use the funds to buy advanced aircraft analysis and design software, blasting equipment, ultrasonic dog repellents, munitions and other military hardware. At least $1.5 million dollars in tobacco smuggling proceeds was directly forwarded to Hezbollah by Mohamad Hammoud, along with laptops, night-vision goggles, stun guns, blasting equipment, and more. Finally, in 2010, Hazam Ali Ahmed pled guilty for raising approximately half a million dollars through tobacco smuggling, while an FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force wiretap caught Ahmed recruiting for al-Qaeda and discussing blowing up a shopping centre. 49. Australia’s close proximity to South East Asia, where tobacco smuggling is particularly rife, combined with the rapid increase in online-based cigarette smugglers (where cartons can be bought for under $20AUD), make it guaranteed that if these recommendations are enacted, the sale of illicit tobacco will increase, leading to worsening outcomes for all. 50. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance further submits that taxpayer subsidies to pharmaceutical multi-nationals constitute an invalid use of taxpayer funds. If persons choose to consume tobacco-cessession products, then they – and not the taxpayer – ought be financially liable for their decision. Bolster and build on existing programs and partnerships to reduce smoking rates among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people 51. It is submitted that the racist paternalism as detailed in this report to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community, with the underlying theme that indigenous Australians are unable to choose for themselves how to act, is a morally abhorrent legacy of generations of post-colonial racism in Australia. 52. Recommendations 6.3.1-6.3.11 are premised on nothing short of blatant racism, and the mindset that indigenous Australians can’t look after themselves. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance rejects this notion, and believes that indigenous Australians should and should not be singled out for demeaning programs on the basis of their race. Strengthen efforts to reduce smoking among people in disadvantaged populations with high smoking prevalence 53. Recommendations 6.4.1-6.4.11 involve further expenditure by Australian taxpayers, and the funnelling of funds to NGO’s. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance strongly submits that taxpayers should not be forced to foot the bill for even more services, and even more funding to NGO’s. It is submitted that if NGO’s wish to take part in welfare delivery services to reduce smoking then they ought pay for it themselves, rather than forcing taxpayers to foot the bill. 54. The ATA also notes that the draft report provides no definition of disadvantage, nor that when discussing disadvantage, examines the root issues underlying it. As such, it is submitted that it is imperative for the Intergovernmental Committee to identify on what basis such “disadvantaged” persons are unable to assert their right to cease smoking. Such baseless condescension in the Draft Report is accepted without critical appraisal of what the concept actually implies. 55. It is further submitted that persons in lower socio-economic groups are not mentally disadvantaged, as implied in the Draft Report, and the patronising attitude of the Draft Report is an insult to hundreds of thousands of Australians. 56. It is further submitted that recommendation 6.4.6 – to ensure mental health services and drug treatment agencies are smoke free – can cause serious problems and ought not be acted upon: "Many prior studies have found an association of ceasing smoking and suicide (Leistikow & Shipley 1999). In addition, a recent review cited some evidence that smoking cessation could precipitate a clinical depression (Hughes 2006) and, thus, might lead to increased suicide." - John R. Hughes, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT. For more information please visit National Center for Biotechnology Information website "Nicotine has some positive effects on symptoms of psychiatric disorders… several studies have shown that some symptoms of psychiatric disorders may be exacerbated by nicotine withdrawal. Therefore, attempts to quit smoking pose additional problems to patients with mental health problems." Fagerstrom K and Aubin HJ. Management of smoking cessation in patients with psychiatric disorders. Current Medical Research and Opinion. 2009;25:511-8 57. It is noted that in the UK a survey showed that 90% of staff members in mental health care service providers were opposed to a total smoking ban due to the effects that this would cause (For more information Please visit Psych Minded website). Eliminate remaining advertising, promotion, and sponsorship of tobacco products 58. Recommendations 6.5.1-6.5.11 deal with further regulations on the sale of tobacco. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance submits that these are immoral, shall hurt businesses, and will do nothing to reduce smoking rates. 59. Recommendations 6.5.1-6.5.4 revolve around the passing of the Plain Packaging legislation. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance is strongly opposed to plain packaging legislation in that it is a) blatant theft of intellectual property, b)potentially unconstitutional, and c)a violation of our international obligations, and d) that there is no impartial evidence whatsoever it will reduce smoking rates. 60. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance endorses the submission by the Property Rights Alliance in February 2010 to the Senate Standing Committee on Community Affairs as representative of its position on plain packaging and states its belief that this policy ought be reversed. 61. It is noted that even prior to the passing of plain packaging legislation, Australia already has some of the most draconian restrictions on tobacco products in the world. These include prohibition on tobacco advertising & sponsorship, display bans, and graphic health warnings occupying 30% of the front of a cigarette pack, and 90% of the back of the pack. To increase this to cover 75% of the front of the packet, as well as 90% of the back, is unsubstantiated by any empirical evidence, and is opposed by the ATA. 62. It is submitted that the evidence that increasing such warnings will reduce smoking rates is simply non-existent. Indeed, almost no scientific studies support the hypothesis that graphic warning labels will cause smokers to quit, and a wide range of evidence suggests that this intervention is unlikely to be effective. 63. A 2012 study published in published in Tobacco Control, entitled “The emotional impact of European tobacco-warning images”, offers a qualitative examination of the emotional impact of graphic cigarette warning labels. Volunteers were shown 35 different graphic cigarette warning labels developed by the European Commission and rated their emotional reactions. The study found that very few of the warnings (only 4 of the 35) elicited strong emotional reactions, and among youth, the messages were even less effective. A significant number of images (17%) elicited positive responses. 64. It is submitted that the following conclusion of this study, although based upon a European sample, has considerable salience in Australia: "If the aim of the European anti-tobacco campaign, based on aversive warning images, is to prompt negative attitudes towards smoking and predispose smokers to quit smoking by activating the defensive-avoidance motivational system, our results question the effectiveness of most of the proposed images. ... Considering that young people are currently one of the main marketing targets of tobacco firms in the world, the proposed tobaccowarning images might be particularly ineffective for this target population unless more arousing unpleasant pictures are used. ... the present results suggest that the warning images proposed by the European Commission for tobacco packages might have limited effectiveness in reducing tobacco consumption in the general population because most of the proposed images were evaluated as [only] moderately unpleasant and arousing. Because such images may not be capable of inducing negative attitudes and avoidance behaviors, the question of their effectiveness remains open." (Munoz MA, et al.The emotional impact of European tobaccowarning images. Tobacco Control 2011 For more information please visit Tobacco Control website) 65. A 2011 report by the UK Based National Centre for Social Research in conjunction with the Institute for Social Marketing at the University of Sterling examined, through two waves of surveys, the impact of new graphic health warnings. The findings were: a) There was no observed effect of the graphic warning labels on cigarette smoking prevalence. b) There was no observed effect of the warning labels on cigarette consumption. c) There was no observed effect of the warning labels on smoking reduction (measured as forgoing cigarettes due to the warning labels). 66. In the United States, it is noted that the US Food and Drug Administration, a supporter of graphic health warnings, conceded in August 2011, in its Regulatory Impact Policy, that graphic warning labels will have very little impact, and perhaps no impact at all, on cigarette smoking. This analysis predicts that the graphic warning labels will only reduce smoking prevalence by 0.088 percentage points (less than 0.1 percentage points). Importantly, the 95% confidence interval for the effect includes zero, meaning that it is not statistically different from zero (Federal Register /Vol. 76, No. 120 /Wednesday, June 22, 2011). 67. It must be stressed that the US Food and Drug Administration further concedes its scientific evaluation concludes that the predicted effect of the graphic warning labels is not statistically different from zero: "FDA has had access to very small data sets, so our effectiveness estimates are in general not statistically distinguishable from zero; we therefore cannot reject, in a statistical sense, the possibility that the rule will not change the U.S. smoking rate. Therefore, the appropriate lower bound on benefits is zero." (Federal Register 76 at 36776) 68. The words of tobacco control advocate Dr. Michael Siegel on the FDA data are telling: The analysis is based on a comparison of smoking rates in the U.S. and Canada before and after the implementation of graphic warning labels in Canada. The analysis compares smoking rates after accounting for the effect of cigarette tax changes, and attributes all unaccounted for differences to the Canadian warning labels... In this case, there was no observed significant effect of the graphic warning labels on smoking prevalence in Canada, once the tax increase was accounted for. Were this a scientific paper instead of a regulatory impact analysis, the paper would be forced to conclude that there was no significant effect of the graphic warning labels in Canada on cigarette smoking prevalence over an 8-year follow-up period. In fact, if you delete the year 2001 from the analysis, the observed difference in unexplained smoking rates between the U.S. and Canada is -0.23 percentage points, indicating that after the initial year of the warning labels, this intervention actually increased smoking prevalence in Canada by 0.23 percentage points...Most significant, but shocking, of all, if the analysis is restricted to the period 1994-2008 (not including 2009), then the results show that the graphic warning labels in Canada increased smoking prevalence by 0.066 percentage points. Thus, had the same analysis been conducted one year ago, before 2009 prevalence data were available, the very same report would have been forced to conclude that the proposed regulation is predicted to increase smoking rates and cost the U.S. billions of dollars. The FDA's own analysis demonstrates no statistically significant impact of the graphic cigarette warning labels on smoking prevalence in Canada. This evidence - presented by the FDA itself - supports my earlier conclusion that the proposed graphic warning labels in the U.S. will likely have a minimal impact on cigarette smoking, and that this miminal effect will occur due to the immediate shock value of the warning change, not to any sustained effect of the warnings. For more information please visit Tobacco Analysis Blogspot website 69. It is submitted that recommendation 6.5.4, that tobacco companies may need to report regularly on promotional activities, has no science or evidence behind it, and can only be seen as a capricious undue burden on a legal business. 70. Recommendation 6.5.6, which is based upon the argument that sight of a product constitutes advertising imposes a burden to retailers (for instance struggling to locate products during peak hours without holding up sales), without any justification. Indeed, international evidence has demonstrated such bans to be ineffective at reducing smoking. 71. The ATA submits the evidence of what occurred in two international examples of smoking display bans: Canada and Iceland. 72. As noted in The Grocer journal: “The Icelandic ban, introduced in 2001, has failed to achieve its aim of reducing smoking rates in the country’s under 18s. In fact smoking prevalence among 15-19-year-olds actually increased from 14.4% to 17.5% in the year that the ban was introduced, official figures from Statistics Iceland reveal. In 2002, smoking prevalence among this age group was the highest it had been for five years at 17.%. Today at 15.2% it still remains higher than it had been before the ban” (http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/articles.aspx?page=articles&ID=194143). In conjunction with this, any overall decline in smoking rates in Iceland is exceeded by that over the same period of time in other countries where no display ban took place. 73. It is also shown that smoking display bans in Canada cannot plausibly be claimed to have been caused by display bans, and that there is no difference in a reduction in smoking between provinces which have instituted display bans, and those that have not. This also seems to be the experience to date in Australia, showing that smoking display bans do not reduce the incidence and uptake of smoking 74. Recommendation 6.5.7, to restrict the advertising products on the internet, is unenforceable, and an undue burden on governmental resources through attempting to censor and regulate the internet in a manner that will achieve nothing due to the nature of the online world, but burden taxpayers as the government uses funds to attempt to partake in this futile task. 75. The ATA expresses significant concerns also regarding the implementation of 6.5.10 which seeks to prevent tobacco companies from being represented in public health debate. It is submitted that not only is this an unnecessary violation of free speech, and essentially scientific censorship; indeed, it is beyond credulity to think that only vehement tobacco control activists ought to be given a place in public discourse. The hypocrisy is gravely disturbing due to its lack of applicability to taxpayer-funded tobacco control NGO’s, and also pharmaceutical multi-national corporations. 76. Numerous tobacco control NGO’s receive taxpayer funds in Australia, which are then used to lobby the government for further tobacco control. This creation of what is effectively government-controlled ‘sock puppets’ is an unconscionable misuse of taxpayer funds, and it is the position of the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance that any group that receives taxpayer funding should not then use said funding to lobby the government. 77. It is submitted that all relevant parties read the UK report “Sock Puppets: How the Government Lobbies Itself and Why” by the Institute of Economic Affairs, published in June 2012. The ATA strongly endorses its conclusions that include “banning government departments from using taxpayer’s money to engage in advertising campaigns, the abolition of unrestricted grants to charities and the creation of a new category of non-profit organisation, for organisations which receive substantial funds from statutory sources” (For more information Please visit Institute of Economic Affairs, UK website) . 78. It is also noted that corporations involved in the sale, distribution, and marketing of tobacco cessation products have a vested interest in the policy debate, and that this ought be factored into any consideration of their views on public health policies. 79. Recommendation 6.5.11, the “monitoring” of smoking in movies, is akin to artistic censorship, and is strongly opposed by the Taxpayers’ Alliance. Consider further regulation of the contents, product disclosure, and supply of tobacco products and non therapeutic nicotine delivery systems 80. Recommendations 6.6.1-6.6.8, which seek to regulate product disclosure, are also fundamentally flawed for a number of reasons. 81. Recommendation 6.6.1, which commissions research to inform the development of further regulatory policies on the disclosure of tobacco product ingredients, is unobjectionable on the proviso that the research is conducted by an independent and objective body, and not through a tobacco-control NGO. 82. It must be noted, however, that the evidence currently shows such research would be a waste of taxpayer dollars: The impact of disclosure of tobacco ingredients (which are freely available) was summed up by Dr. Michael Siegel as follows: This is a complete waste of time and resources. Is this the appropriate approach to dealing with a product that we already know is killing thousands of Americans each year? Study the additives to make sure the companies aren't adding anything "harmful" to the tobacco? God forbid if cigarettes don't deliver pure tobacco. There is also nothing new here. We already have a complete list of the cigarette additives and a list of the more than 4,000 known chemicals in tobacco smoke. Has that helped us to develop a safer cigarette? Frankly, this is complete stupidity. Actually, it's not stupidity. It's a political stunt, designed to make people feel like health groups and politicians are doing something, when they're really not. For more information please visit Tobacco Analysis Blogspot website 83. It is further noted that the “additives” added to tobacco are, in general, approved for – and commonly used in – foods and beverages and are considered “safe”. 84. It is also submitted that if companies were to “remove” additives from tobacco, it may convey the impression that such cigarettes are “safer”, leading to worsening health outcomes. Furthermore, as Dr. Siegel notes: There is scientific plausibility behind the notion that mandating noadditive cigarettes could result in a more hazardous product. Such a mandate would almost certainly result in higher use of fluecured, rather than burley tobacco in cigarettes because burley tobacco produces unpalatable smoke unless flavorings or sweeteners are used. Thus, such a mandate would cause tobacco manufacturers to shift towards higher amounts of flue-cured tobacco. However, there is scientific evidence that flue-cured tobacco yields higher levels of benzo[a]pyrene and tar than burley tobacco. Since tar and benzo[a]pyrene are associated with cancer risk, it is at least plausible that the FCTC working group's recommendation would increase the global burden of cancer, which is not exactly a health- or science-based policy objective. 85. Recommendation 6.6.2, which commissions research on the effect of flavourings in making tobacco products palatable, is also misguided. There can be no doubt that some tobacco flavourings enhance the smoking experience for some persons (otherwise they wouldn’t exist). To investigate this, however, is a waste of taxpayer money as this ultimately is not an issue of science, but of policy and ultimately, politics. 86. It is noted that there is no evidence in existence that flavoured cigarettes are any more harmful than other cigarettes. Secondly, there is no evidence that flavoured cigarettes are any more addictive or harder to quit smoking than other cigarettes. Indeed, these assertions have not even been made. Furthermore, there is strong evidence that young persons are far less likely to smoke flavoured cigarettes than the non-flavoured cigarettes on the market hence an objection based on smoking initiative and uptake is invalid. As such, this recommendation has no basis in health but rather is simply a political agenda being pushed. 87. Somewhat counterintuitively, it is also noted that a new study out of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products reported that the risk of lung cancer death is significantly and substantially lower among menthol cigarette smokers than among non-menthol smokers (Rostron B. Lung cancer mortality risk for U.S. menthol cigarette smokers. Nicotine & Tobacco Research 2012. March 1, 2012) 88. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance endorses recommendation 6.6.5 for further research on electronic cigarettes and other next generation tobacco delivery systems, however, this is made with the proviso that the research be genuinely independent and not by a vested tobacco-control interest group. The health benefits of smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes, snus, and so forth in comparison to cigarette products have been demonstrated in international academic literature, as have their use in smoking cessation (For more information please visit 7thSpace website) , and as such the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance is supportive of further research on their applicability in Australia. 89. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance strongly notes its objections to 6.6.8 which seeks to limit the number of tobacco outlets in the community as a recommendation that shall do nothing to reduce smoking rates, but place a burden on businesses reducing profitability, thus hurting not just the overall economy but local communities. Reduce exceptions to smoke free workplaces, public places and other settings 90. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance is strongly opposed to all smoking bans as an ineffective manner to reduce smoking, and as a violation of property rights. 91. The ATA reiterates the fundamental principle that private property is at the heart of any western society, and smoking bans in private property strongly goes against this principle. 92. It is further noted that smoking bans simply do not work to reduce smoking, as shown by numerous studies: A study published in earlier this year in Addiction found that the Italian smoking ban had no lasting effect on smoking prevalence and quit rates, concluding: “The impact of the Italian smoke-free policy on smoking and inequalities in smoking was short-term. Smoke-free policies may not achieve the secondary effect of reducing smoking prevalence in the long-term, and they may have limited effects on inequalities in smoking.” (Impact of the 2005 smoke-free policy in Italy on prevalence, cessation and intensity of smoking in the overall population and by educational group. Federico B et al. Addiction. 8 May 2012) A paper published in 2012 in PLoS “has found that Scotland's smoking ban had no effect on the country's smoking rate in the long term.” (Impact of Scottish Smoke-Free Legislation on Smoking Quit Attempts and Prevalence. MaKay et al. PLoS. 2012 For more information please visit PLOS one website) The International Journal of Nursing Studies found that there was no change in the number of nurses smoking in France after smoking was banned in the workplace. (Three-year follow-up of attitudes and smoking behaviour among hospital nurses following enactment of France's national smoke-free workplace law. Fathalla et al. International Journal of Nursing Studies. 18 February 2012. 93. It is further submitted that empirical evidence from studies on the effects of smoke-free legislation internationally has demonstrated that it has had no impact on overall health outcomes. 94. The most comprehensive study of the effect of smoking bans on heart attacks was commissioned in 2011 by the RAND Corporation, Center for Studying Health System Change, University of Wisconsin, and Stanford University, which examined the relationship between smoking bans and heart attack admissions and mortality trends in the entire nation, using national data (Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Study citation: Shetty KD, DeLeire T, White C, Bhattacharya J. Changes in U.S. hospitalization and mortality rates following smoking bans. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 2011; 30(1):6-28.) The key conclusion of the study is that: "In contrast with smaller regional studies, we find that smoking bans are not associated with statistically significant short-term declines in mortality or hospital admissions for myocardial infarction or other diseases. . . An analysis simulating smaller studies using subsamples reveals that large short-term increases in myocardial infarction incidence following a smoking ban are as common as the large decreases reported in the published literature." 95. Recommendation 6.7.4 which looks at restricting in homes and in cars is a further violation of private property rights that is opposed by the Taxpayers’ Alliance. The ATA specifically notes arguments used to support the banning of smoking in vehicles is based on a thoroughly debunked report that smoking in cars is 23 times more dangerous than indoors. This claim has been comprehensively refuted in a report in the Canadian Medical Association Journal by Ross MAcKenzie and Becky Freeman from the University of Sydney, which states plainly that “there is no evidence to support the fact that smoking in cars is 23 times more toxic than in other indoor environments.” (For more information please visit adafad organisation website) 96. The ATA also strongly opposes other recommendations to extend smoking bans to outside areas or to “restrict smoking outdoors where people gather” and in multiperson dwellings as having no basis in evidence in regards to health outcomes. 97. The ATA also notes its opposition to taxpayer funds being used to “support employees and employers” to quit smoking. Provide greater access to a range of evidence based cessation services to support smokers to quit 98. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance supports persons having the right to choose smoking cessation programs, and concedes the necessity of such programs at this present state. However, it is submitted that such programs are already adequately funded by the taxpayer, and there is no justification to increase their funding above present levels. Conclusion 99. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance strongly opposes the recommendations of the Draft Report as reducing freedom of choice, hurting taxpayers through both increases in taxation and public expenditure, and doing little to reduce the rates of smoking 100. The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance submits that the Draft National Tobacco Strategy 2012-2018 ought be rejected in its entirety. Timothy Andrews Executive Director Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance