Global forces shaping irregular migration
flows and state responses:
An Australian case study
Governing Irregular Migration Conference
Athens, 8–9 July 2015
Marie McAuliffe
Sir Roland Wilson PhD scholar
Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute
Presentation outline
• Australian irregular migration context
• Analytical framework
• Operational and policy responses
• Conclusions
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Irregular Migration Research Programme
• Drivers & determinants of irregular maritime
migration, especially migrant decision making
• AUD 6 mil over 3 years; 20 research projects
involving 30 academic, private sector, policy
think tank and NGO researchers
• International advisory groups
• Occasional paper series
• Article in Migration Policy Practice v5, n1
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Defining ‘irregular migration’
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Migrants who have illegally/irregularly entered the country, including by physically
evading formal immigration control or presenting false papers.
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Migrants who legally entered the
country for a fixed period which has
expired; they did not renew their
permission to stay and are therefore
unlawful overstayers.
Migrants who are lawfully entitled
to reside in the country, but are in
3 breach of some visa condition,
notably by working more than their
immigration status permits.
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Asylum seekers who legally entered
the country to pursue a case for
refugee status, but who remain despite
a final decision refusing them a
continuing right to remain.
Children born in the country to
such ‘irregular migrants’, who also
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lack a right to remain although
they are not themselves migrants.
Source: Gordon et al. 2009
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‘Irregular migration’ in Australia
• Small ‘irregular’ or ‘unlawful’ migrant population
• Focus on external border - no restrictions on internal
movement
• Air travel dominates
• Irregular maritime arrivals greater in number and
proportion compared with irregular air arrivals
– Differences in demographic characteristics & behaviour
• Definition limited to irregular migration flows rather than
stocks
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Proportion of detected irregular arrivals by region
and mode of travel (~2012)
Source: McAuliffe & Mence (2014)
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Detected irregular arrivals to Australia
Source: Derived from DIBP (2012)
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Source: UNODC
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Changing nature of irregular maritime flows to
Australia
• Increase in volume
• Increase in diversity of origin
• Changes in demography – citizenship, unaccompanied
minors & families
• Largely asylum seekers
– Indonesian crew
– Sri Lankan surge
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1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
Irregular maritime flows to Australia: 1976 to 2014
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2010s
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Changing nature of flows
• Transit migration through Thailand, Malaysia &
Indonesia
– Shift to direct movement by Sri Lankans alongside large
increases in volume
• Almost all migrants are smuggled using agents, people
smugglers and corrupt officials
• Smugglers need boats to be intercepted
– Extremely remote & harsh northern coastline
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State responses to irregular migration Analytical frameworks
• Hatton’s (2011) typology of three broad policy levers: ‘border
control’, ‘refugee claims processing/acceptance’ and
‘treatment of asylum seekers’.
• Hatziprokopiou &Triandafyllidou (2013) distinguish between
external and internal immigration policies, as well as between
‘fencing’ or ‘gate-keeping’ irregular migration control policies.
• McAuliffe & Mence (2014) geographic/spatial lines accounting
for origin, transit, physical border and destination country
responses.
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State responses to irregular migration in
international and transnational settings
- Informed by empirical research into migrant decision making
Direct control
Seek to influence
Outside of control
or influence
Origin factors (e.g. political/security,
economic, civil society, regional stability, etc)
Destination factors (e.g. asylum policy,
refugee recognition rates, political/security,
economic, civil society, diaspora, etc)
Enabling factors (e.g. ease of travel/access,
telecommunications, transport, smuggling,
diaspora, corruption, etc)
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Australia’s evolving operational and
policy response framework
• Increasing focus over time on ‘enabling’ factors
• Further restricting access to territory (destination & transit)
– Visa-on-arrival policy changes in Indonesia & Malaysia
– ‘Turnbacks’
– Enhanced screening and deportations
– Third country processing and resettlement
– Undermining smuggling operations (e.g. information release)
– Plus existing measures (e.g. immigration detention in Indonesia,
capacity building, counter people smuggling operations, etc)
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• Continued focus on destination country factors & deterrence
– Temporary protection
– Tightening review processes
– Differential treatment by arrival status (e.g. detention, RSD processes)
• Migrants continue to view Australia as a destination of choice
• Reduced emphasis on origin country factors
• Australian responses have relied on geography, bilateral
relationships, understanding of smuggling
operations/marketing, testing relationships & obligations.
– ‘flows within flows’
• Financial & other costs
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Conclusions
• Extraordinary responses becoming ordinary?
• Further significant efforts to restrict access to territory
• Sustainability?
– Global transformational forces
– Human displacement, relative deprivation, demographic change
– Potential migrants’ views of Australia as a destination of choice
• Replicability?
– High cost
– Reliance on geography, bilateral relationships, understanding of
smuggling operations, readiness to challenge norms
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Thank you
Questions?
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