The Limits of Biology and
The Promise of Technology:
Understanding and Guiding the Life Sciences
in a World of Accelerating Technological Change
ICISTS at KAIST
July 2007  Daejeon, Korea
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides
Outline
1. Futures Studies
2. Evolutionary Development
3. Accelerating Change
4. Limits of Foresight
5. Limits of Biology
6. Promise of Technology
7. Priorities for the Future
Futures Studies
An Emerging Discipline
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

ASF (Accelerating.org), founded in 2003, is a
nonprofit community of scholars exploring
accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society
(STBS), at
2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and
Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) futures studies, a model of change that
proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and
trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we
may use to create unique paths (many of which will fail) on
the way to these highly probable developmental
destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic
features of complexity development on Earth include:
–
–
–
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Brief History of Futures Studies:
A Century of Minimal Formal Scholarship
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit













Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto


1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations
1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration
1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.)
1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International)
1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future
1967, World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation
Institute for the Future
1970, Rand Graduate Institute (PhD in Policy Analysis);
Alvin Toffler, Future Shock
1971, U. of Hawaii, PhD in Futures Studies (Poli. Sci.)
1974, U. of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S.
1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden; Inst. for Alternative Futures
1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation
1987, Global Business Network
1995, Tamkang U., Center for Futures Studies
1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines
2003, Acceleration Studies Foundation
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Foresight Development:
Twelve Types of Futures Thinking
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
\Fu"tur*ist\, n.
One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.
Social Types






Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Preconventional Futurist
Personal Futurist
Imaginative Futurist
Agenda-driven Futurist
Consensus-driven Futurist
Professional Futurist
Methodological Types






Critical Futurist
Alternative Futurist
Predictive Futurist
Evo-devo Futurist
Validating Futurist
Epistemological Futurist
See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Foresight Development:
Future Discovery, Management, and Creation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or
Probable, Preferable, and Possible futures, plus Wildcards
(low-probability but high-impact events).
In other words, futurists try to predict, manage, and create the
future.
 Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)
– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of
prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems
theory, risk analysis, marketing research
 Management (“Preferable”)
– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,
scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging,
enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and
time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
 Creation (“Possible”)
– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies
for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation,
exploratory research and development, creative thinking,
social networking
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Global Primary Futures Studies Programs:
Four PhD’s, Nine Masters – An Emerging Discipline
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
AUSTRALIA
1. Swinburne U. of Tech., MS,PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.).
FINLAND
2. Turku School of Econ. and Finland Futures Academy.
MS in Futures Studies (Econ. and Bus. Admin.).
FRANCE
3. CNAM, PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin, Engrg).
MEXICO
4. Monterrey Inst. of Tech,
MS in Strategic Foresight (Humanities & Soc. Sciences)
SOUTH AFRICA
5. U. Stellenbosch and Inst. for Futures Resrch.
M.Phil,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ/Mgmt).
TAIWAN
6. Tamkang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies.
MA in Futures Studies (Education).
7. Fo Guang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies,
MA in Futures Studies (Sociology)
UNITED STATES
8. Regent University, MA in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.)
9. U. Hawaii and Hawaii Rsrch Ctr for FS. MA,PhD in Alternative Futures (Pol Sci).
10. U. Houston, MS in Studies of the Future (Technology).
See: accelerating.org/gradprograms.html
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Century of Foresight Scholarship,
But Still No General Theory of Foresight
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Fundamental Questions Remain:
 What is predictable?
 What is intrinsically unpredictable?
 What long-range forces act on complex
systems, besides natural selection?
 Does history have directionality?
Evo devo theory is beginning to provide
answers to such questions.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What Today Would Have Surprised
Most Americans Living in 1950?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
1. Electronics Miniaturization, Digitization, and Virtualization
–
Transistor, IC, laser, fiber optics, cell phones, personal computers, internet, comm.
satellites, transparency technology, computer graphics, virtual worlds. Could we have
imagined the power and pervasiveness of digital life?
2. Decline of U.S. Mfg., Rise and Resiliency of Services and Intangibles Sector
–
Economic resiliency (no major depression since 1930’s), intangible assets, microcredit.
Could we have imagined the U.S. with less than 15% employment in manufacturing (12%)
and agriculture (1.4%) and still the leading world power?
3. Egalitarianism, Pluralism, and Globalization (Network Society)
–
Civil rights movement, women’s rights and work parity, contraception, reproductive rights,
sexual revolution, gay rights, youth rights, 100,000 Global NGOs, multiculturalism,
multireligiosity, undocumented immigration, global trade interdependence, EU, NAFTA
4. Peaceful End of Communism, Decline of Militarism and Violence
–
State capitalism (China, Singapore), nuclear disarmament, WMD nonproliferation, loss of
superpower influence, European postimilitarism, decline of wars, genocides, homicide,
crime, rise of asymmetric (non-state) conflict
5. Limits to Growth, Environmentalism and Health Movements
–
Global population explosion, MDC population decline, nuclear power limitations, no return
to Moon for almost 50 years (1972-2017), ocean overfishing, global CO2 spike, sustainable
business, fundamentalist backlash/Terrorism, smoking decline, health care cost burden
6. Consequences of Increased Personal Freedom and Affluence
–
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Obesity/diet industry, drug addiction, prolonged adolescence/youth culture, decline of
marriage, celebrity/entertainment culture, public education standards erosion, ADD/ADHD,
consumer debt
Yet each of these was eloquently anticipated by someone. Today, we have wisdom
of the crowds/networks/early wikis, collab. intelligence, prediction markets, etc.
[Adapted from Mar 2007 APF Survey, Peter Bishop. Profuturists.com]
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What Would Not Have Surprised
1950’s Americans?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Age of Automation
–

Multinational Corporate Economy
–

Largest employer, special interest lobbies, campaign finance
dysfunction, national security industry, erosion of states rights
Urban Decline and Renewal Cycle
–
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
More powerful than most governments, able to grow faster, employ
technology more aggressively, periodic economic bubbles (Internet),
fraud (S&L, Enron), DJIA over 12,000, GNP growing 3-10% year and
accelerating.
Growth in Size and Plutocracy of Government
–

Process automation, industrial robotics, mega-scale engineering, and
material abundance (“The American Way”)
Suburbia, decline of urban core, gangs, gentrification, new urbanism
(Repeat of Manchester in 1800’s).
Is evolutionary surprise in the human social space decreasing?
Frank Fukuyama, John Horgan, myself would argue: Yes
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Thesis: Back to (Predictability of) the Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Predictability of the Future
– This belief was very strong and naïve in 1940’s and 1950’s
(reductionistic, engineered future), saw its nadir in the 1980’s
(Chaos Theory, “Great Disruption” of the 1960’s-70’s).
– It is reemerging today as a new type of prediction (evo devo
futures, integral futures).
– Developmental futures can see the trends and ends of things
(eg., Rock n’ Roll, Hip Hop), the standard attractors that define
a stable future state (eg., global capitalist social democracy),
and the saturation in innovation (of fundamentally new forms)
that occurs once a developmental attractor is reached
To the Network, human space is stabilizing as our technological
space sees ever more rapid changes which are increasingly:
1. Predictable in their general developmental trajectory.
2. Supportive of a common set of human values (net positive
economic and acceptable social impact).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Still, Evolutionary Chaos and Experimentation Always
Continue (this is the Path to Development)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Statistically predictable developmental trends provide no
guarantee that any particular individual, group,
nation, or culture will follow the network trend.
The plurality of individuals, groups, nations, and cultures
in a network must each chart unique local paths,
many of which will experience poor outcomes, and
only a few of which will create new global value.
To the Individual, the World Remains Evolutionarily
Competitive, Unpredictable, and Dangerous.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Also: Global Developmental Risk Always Remains
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Developmental processes can always fail, though failures are usually
less frequent and less severe the more advanced development
becomes (in biology, and perhaps in culture and tech as well).
Global Developmental Risks for the human species include:
 Overpopulation (our most fundamental social problem?)
 Pandemics and global health risks (incl. diseases of affluence)
 Inadequate global development (health, poverty, undereducation)
 Inequitable global development (plutocracy and loss of liberty)
 Ethnic, religious and political aggression, instability and war
 Environmental degradation and climate change
 Energy, water, food and other resource scarcity
 Terrorism and SIMADs (WMDs, homeland security)
 Inadequate S&T education, development and assessment
 Inadequate buffers (insurance) against unknown catastrophes
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Development:
In Physics, Biology, and Beyond
A New Paradigm for Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Replication & Variation
“Natural Selection”
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
Evolutionary Development:
The Left and Right Hands of Change
Left Hand
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
New Computat’l Phase Space ‘Opening’
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Right Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Differential
Multicellularity
Discovered
Complex Environmental Interaction
Cambrian Explosion (570 mya)
Bacteria 
Insects
Invertebrates
Selection/Emergence/
Phase Space Collapse/
MEST Collapse
Development
Vertebrates
35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since.
Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
See: Wallace Arthur, John Odling-Smee, Simon Conway Morris, Rudy Raff
© 2007 Accelerating.org
RVISC Life Cycle of
Evolutionary Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Replication
Spacetime stable structure, transmissible partially by internal
(DNA) template and partially by external (universal
environmental) template. Templates are more internal with time.

Variation
Ability to encode “requisite variety” of adaptive responses to
environmental challenges, to preserve integrity, create novelty.

Interaction (Complex, Spacetime Bounded)
Early exploration of the phase space favors natural selection, full
exploration (“canalization”) favor developmental selection.

Selection (“Natural/Evolutionary” Selection)
Information-producing, randomized, chaotic attractors.

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Convergence (“Developmental” Selection)
MEST-efficient, optimized, standard attractors.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolution vs. Development
“The Twin’s Thumbprints”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.
Development creates the predictable global patterns.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Understanding Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Just a few hundred
developmental genes “ride
herd” over massive molecular
evolutionary chaos.
Yet two genetic twins look, in
many respects, identical.
How is that?
They’ve been tuned, cyclically,
for a future-specific
convergent emergent order,
in a stable development niche.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Origination of Organismal Form, Müller and Newman, 2003
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Channels
(Evolution, Systems, and Development)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The marbles roll around on the landscape (system), each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points
(“attractors”) at the bottom of each basin. MEST
compression is a key feature of the attractors.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Developmental Biogenesis
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Eric Smith, Santa Fe Institute
 Potential prebiotic chemical reactions form a
vast ‘possibility space’ in the energy landscape.
 A subset of these make self-reproducing and
self-varying chemical cycles, producing
information and permanently modifying the
selection environment (“niche construction”).
 A series of low energy paths (“channels”)
emerge, constraining the landscape.
Q:“What was the problem with the prebiotic Earth
that was solved by the appearance of life?”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks)
still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
How Many Wheels on an Automobile are
Developmentally Optimal?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.
Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
“Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development):
Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid
forms as a standard attractor.
A number of small dinosaurs
(raptors and oviraptors) developed
bipedalism, binocular vision,
complex hands with opposable
thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios
equivalent to modern birds. They
were intelligent pack-hunters of
both large and small animals
(including our mammalian
precursors) both diurnally and
nocturnally. They would likely
have become the dominant
planetary species due to their
superior intelligence, hunting, and
manipulation skills without the K-T
event 65 million years ago.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development:
Two Universal Systems Processes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Evolution
Development
Creativity
Chance
Randomness
Variety/Many
Possibilities
Uniqueness
Uncertainty
Accident
Bottom-up
Divergent
Differentiation
Discovery
Necessity
Determinism
Unity/One
Constraints
Sameness
Predictability
Design (self-organized or other)
Top-Down
Convergent
Integration
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting
models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that
both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The deepest question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities:
Innovation vs. Sustainability
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to
Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without generativity creates
sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive
weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without
sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that
is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis:
Evo Devo Organisms, Evo Devo Universe
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Devo (Germline, Parameters) vs. Evo (Bodies, Universes)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Protected Germline Cells,
Mortal Somas (Bodies)
(Kirkwood, 1999)
Protected Parameters,
Mortal Universes
(Smolin, 1999)© 2007 Accelerating.org
Our Universe Appears to Have Both
Evolutionary Possibility and Developmental Purpose
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The more we study the dual processes of Evo-Devo, the
better we discover how the simple yet specially tuned
background allows creation of a complex foreground.




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Evolutionary variation is generally increasing and
becomes more MEST efficient with time and substrate.
Development (in special systems) is on an accelerating
local trajectory to an intelligent destination.
Humans are both evolutionary & developmental actors,
creating and catalyzing a new substrate transition.
We need both adequate evolutionary generativity,
(emergent uniqueness) and adequate developmental
sustainability (niche construction) in this extraordinary
journey.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Change
A Universal Developmental Process
Historical Context:
The Challenge of Accelerating Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
I. Universal Timescale
1. Birth of the Universe to Life On Earth (13.7 bya to 4.5 bya)
II. Geologic Timescale
1. Precambrian Supereon (4500 mya to 550 mya)
2. Proterozoic Eon (550 mya to 65 mya)
3. Cenozoic Eon (65 mya to 2.5 mya)
III. Anthropologic Timescale
1. Early Civilization (2.5M yrs)
Stone Age (Paleolithic) (2.5 mya to 8,000 BC)
New Stone Age (Neolithic) (8,000 BC to 3,500 BC)
Bronze Age (3500 BC to 1200 BC). (1st writing at 3300 BC)
Iron Age (12th Century BC to 700 BC)
2. Classical Era (1200 yrs)
Classical Antiquity (Greece & Rome, 700 BC to 500 AD)
3. The Middle Era (900 yrs)
Early Middle Ages (6th to 10th Centuries: AD 500-1000)
High Middle Ages (11th, 12th, and 13th Centuries: 1001-1300)
Late Middle Ages (14th, 15th, and 16th Centuries: 1301-1600)
4. The Modern Era (450 yrs?)
Age of Enlightenment (17th and 18th Centuries: 1601-1800)
Industrial Age (19th to Mid-20th Centuries: 1800-1950)
Information Age (Mid-20th to Mid-21st Centuries: 1950-2050)
5. The Noosphere Era (200 yrs?)
Symbiotic Age (2050-2100?)
Autonomy Age (2100-2125?)
9,700,000,000 years
4,000,000,000 years
485,000,000 years
63,000,000 years
2,500,000 years
4500 years
2300 years
1900 years
1200 years
300 years
300 years
300 years
200 years
150 years
100 years?
50 years?
25 years?
We Are
Here
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teihard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
© 2007 Accelerating.org
De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The Developmental Spiral
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
physics or information theory texts…)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The J Curve (Phases LEH)
DRIVER:
Intelligence (Negentropy)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
ENGINE:
MEST Compression
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
HyperbolicAppearing
Phase
(Not to Scale)
DYNAMIC:
Evolutionary Development
CONSTRAINT:
First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
Some aspects of post-emergence
and post-limit systems can’t be
understood or guided by presingularity systems
HP
= Emergence Singularities
EP = Exponential Point (Knee)
HP = Hyperbolic Point (Wall)
Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Exponential-Appearing
Phase
with Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
EP
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Examples:
Chaisson’s Phi
Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
Szathmary’s Megatransitions
Linear-Appearing Phase
© 2007 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks
quite smooth on a
macroscopic scale.
Note the “knee of the
curve” occurs circa
1850, at the Industrial
Revolution.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Emergence Acceleration:
Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Ray Kurzweil,
2006
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the
commercial digital world emerged.
New problems have emerged (population, human rights,
asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions
for each in coming waves of technological globalization.
“Human nature may not change, but our house
becomes exponentially more intelligent.”
We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their
human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,
who realized the core acceleration is due to
the intrinsic properties of technological systems.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Conversational Interface (CI):
Circa 2015-2020 Developmental Attractor
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel is a much more
efficient communication
modality.
Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in
face to face human conversation
is nonverbal.
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2002
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Post 2015: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
 A time
when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Limits of Foresight
How Do We Fail in our Futures Models?
Anthropic Errors in Foresight:
A Humbling and Very Incomplete List
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Linear Futures – “The future continues as before.”
Failure to see a new trend, exponential trend, or trend disruption.
Monolithic Futures – “One trend/value/event dominates all”.
Isolated trend extrapolation. We see a trend/value/event but fail to
see Hidden Limits and Competitive Alternatives to it.
Egoic Futures – “The future conforms to me/my group/humanity.”
Vision limited to the “Skin-Encapsulated Ego” (Personal-, Group-,
or Species-Identity). Eg., I will waste my local resources regardless
of the global consequences (Preconventional Futurist).
Manic Futures – “In the future we will be as Gods.”
Hope and Hype. Aspiration-based. The best of these become
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and advance global human welfare.
The worst are illusions, or are harmful to the culture or species.
Depressive Futures – “The future is a catastrophe (due to us).”
Doom and Gloom. Fear-based. The best of these are
Self-Preventing Prophecies (Silent Spring, Limits to Growth, etc.),
and save us from error. Current Catastrophic Candidates:
Environment, Population, Globalization, Terrorism/WMD
Peak Oil, Resources, Pandemic, Climate Change
© 2007 Accelerating.org
“Flying-Car Futures”:
Manic Plus Monolithic Anthropic Errors
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“In the future we will see mass adoption of flying cars.”
This idea is…
A. Manic.



Characterized by “Technological Wonder.” (Fantasy)
Promise of “freedom and unpredictability.”
Fails to see Hidden Limits. “Nothing can stop this.”
B. Monolithic.



Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Lack model diversity. Monotrend/value/event extrapolation.
Lack cognitive diversity. One charismatic advocate,
one type of thinking or expert background.
Fails to see Competitive Alternatives. “Nothing beats this.”
Example: TRW’s “Future Probe,” 1960’s.
Embarassingly poor technological foresight.
Schnaars in Megamistakes:
“The best technological forecasts get only 50% of their
predictions right.” (That’s quite respectable, actually.)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What are Today’s Flying Car Futures?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In the 1930’s it was Flying Cars (an Airplane in
Every Garage)
In the 1950’s it was Jet Packs and
Atomic Cars (Ford Nucleon).
In the 1970’s it was Moon Bases and
Manned Missions to Mars
What technologies are we overpromising today?
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Today’s Flying Car Futures?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Nootropics (neuropharmacology)
Human Germline Engineering
Biological Ultralongevity (>120 yr average lifespan)
Nanobots (human-controlled)
Humans in Space (for any significant purpose)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Today’s Realistic Challenges
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Public Health
- Population Control
- Clean Water, Adequate Food, and Sanitation
- Infectious Disease
Preventive Medicine
- Diet (Caloric Restriction, Semi-Vegetarianism)
- Stress and Immunity
Diseases of Affluence
- Obesity
- Diabetes
- Heart Disease
- Cancer
Mental Disorders
- Addictions (drugs, smoking, gambling, violence, sex)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Harder Challenges
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Education
- Child Development
- Self-Actualization
Politics
- Peace and Security
- Human Rights and Entitlements
- Participatory Democracy
Environment
- Sustainability
- Climate Control
Post-2020, with the Conversational Interface, the
Metaverse, and Global Transparency, our Cultural
Technology can educate a generation to face these
challenges in ways today’s world simply cannot.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me)
Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Each of us sees only “a piece of the elephant” and is
easily wrong.
A multi-biased network gives you a wider and
deeper map of the possibility space. This will
make you more adaptive, and may make you
more foresighted.
Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and
present, but very little thinking about personal,
organizational, societal, and global futures.
Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias.
Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies,
have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak
signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical.
Consult the crowd but make your own decisions.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“You can’t get an unbiased education, so
the next best thing is a multi-biased one.”
 Buckminster Fuller
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Limits of Biology
What Comes After the Human Species?
Development and
and Neoteny
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Humans had to go backwards
developmentally from our
two closest cousins
(common and bonobo
chimpanzees).
We are more juvenile (neoteny), and far more
altricial (helpless at birth, dependent on
imprinting from culture and technology) as
well as slightly precocial (large brains at
birth).
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Lessons:
 Genes do not encode for superior
intelligence, culture (memetics and
technology) does!
 Choose carefully the ideas and technologies
© 2007 Accelerating.org
HAR1: The Last Big Genetic Change for Humans?
Preparation for Our Great Leap Forward?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit



Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Human Accelerated Regions (HAR) DNA (which make functional
RNA, not protein) developed 49 differences from chimp DNA over
a just few million years (6Mya, Africa’s Rift Valley)
Our brain (and cerebral cortex) are three times larger in modern
humans vs. predecessors.
HAR1 is a gene active in special nerve cells (Cajal-Retzius
neurons) active in early embryonic cortical development.
C-R neurons produce reelin, which guides neural connection.
Did HAR1 start the juvenile human?
This may well have been the last significant
genetic change for humans. Cultural variation
begins in earnest at that time.
About 60-70,000 years ago (“Great Leap Forward”)
HAR1 mutants may have killed off other nonaccelerated humans (Neanderthals, etc.)
What was the start of human civilization?
Complex tool use? Collective rock throwing?
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Limits to Biological Complexity:
Increasing Antagonistic Pleiotropy in Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Antagonistic Pleiotropy:
“Working against, with many (pleio) changes tropos”
In Aging:
Genes which are beneficial in youth are
damaging in adulthood (eg., testosterone).
In Development:
Genes which are useful for one purpose have
many negative global effects if changed.
More complex organisms have more AP.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Frietson Galis’s Hox Research: Developmental
Path Dependency via Antagonistic Pleiotropy
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Developmental Constraint: Seven Cervical Vertebrae. Despite 1% of humans having
six cervical vertebrae, these variants have neural problems, cancer, and greatly
increased stillbirths (55% of spontaneously aborted fetuses in some species).
Antagonistic plieotropy constrains further evolutionary creation.
Developmental Constraint: Five Fingers. Due to low-modularity plieotropy during the
phylotypic stage (in amniotes, less in amphibians).
How much evolutionary structure is developmentally constrained?
“Why Do Almost All Mammals Have Seven Cervical Vertebrae?,” F. Galis, J Exper Zool, 285:19-26 (1999);
“Why five fingers? Evolutionary constraints on digit numbers,” F. Galis et. al., TRENDS in Ecol Evol, 16:11
© 2007 (2001).
Accelerating.org
The Limits of Top-Down Control:
Growth Genes and Antagonistic Plieotropy
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Clip a promotor for a growth hormone gene into:
a frog and you get a bigger frog
a mouse and you get a bigger mouse with growth
dysregulation, including cancer
a pig and you get the same-sized pig with acromegaly
and arthritis.
Xenopus laevis
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Mus musculus
Sus domesticus
More complex organisms have more evolutionary but
fewer developmental differentiation abilities.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Limits of Top-Down Control:
Engineering Smartness is Very Hard to Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit


Los Angeles
New York
Domestic
Palo Alto
“Doogie Howser” Mouse. Extra copies of NMDA receptor 2B
(NR2B) improved long term potentiation (LTP). They had
better memories but were much more sensitive to pain.
Intelligence breeding in hunting dogs, horses, and other domestics has
had a very limited effect vs. wildtype animals (Pointer vs. Wild Dog).
All neuropharmacology always has a strong dose response and
receptor downregulation, and it all causes long-term damage.
Some of this damage is adaptive (anxiolytics, antidepressants, etc.)
Pointer
African Wild Dog
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Limits to Biological Complexity:
Declining Marginal Adaptation from Differentiation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The classic “S-curve”
x is the independent variable
(developmental differentiation), and
y is the dependent variable
(marginal adaptation), f(x).
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Only so much change can be built on top of DNA.
The further out one gets from the first living cell, the less
developmental freedom remains (legacy code/path dependency).
Are humans near the end of the line? Consider:
 They had to go developmentally “backward” to emerge
 They emerged due to a rare punctuated change (HAR) 4-6
million years ago, not an incremental succession of many small
changes.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Improbability of “Negligible Senescence”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Aubrey De Grey proposes “Strategies for Engineered
Negligible Senescence (SENS)” can be developed to
stop aging in seven areas:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Nuclear DNA mutations
Mitochondrial mutations
Intracellular junk accumulation
Extracellular junk accumulation
Cell loss
Cell senescence
Extracellular crosslinks
His Methuselah Foundation offers a $4.5M Prize for extending the life of
laboratory mice. Don’t expect anything significant, unfortunately. Why?
 This is all “top down” tinkering with a bottom-up optimized process.
 Complex animals are tuned for accelerating senescence after maturity.
 There are major antagonistic plieotropies with changing any process.
 The only strategies we know that would have any effect would slow down
our metabolism (making less effective humans) or take away our
sexuality (making less desirable humans).
For more, see Preston Estep et. al.’s eloquent critique of SENS:
http://www.technologyreview.com/sens/index.aspx
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Real Life Extension Challenge:
“Squaring the Curve” of Lifespan
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Rather than spending your career
(unsuccessfully) trying to create antiaging therapies that will let us live
beyond 100, think about how to use
infotech and biotech to cure the
diseases that kill us long before we
reach that age. Some examples:
Global
Developing World
Heart disease (17M/yr)
Respiratory infections (4M/yr)
Cancer (7M/yr)
HIV/AIDS (3M/yr)
Diabetes (3.2M/yr; 170M)
Malaria (1-5M/yr)
Obesity (1B overweight, 300M
clinically obese)
Diarrhea (2.2M/yr)
Alzheimers (26M afflicted)
Tuberculosis (2M/yr)
Attack the risk factors: Obesity, Unhealthy Diet (incl. too much meat),
Physical Inactivity, Smoking, Drinking, etc.,
See: World Health Organization, Chronic disease info sheets.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Biotech is a Charity Industry
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The industry as a whole has lost money almost every
year since its beginning.
"Investors have been very patient with the biotech
industry, which has been one of the biggest moneylosing industries in the history of mankind," Arthur
Levinson, the chief executive of Genentech, told
analysts last month. "The cumulative loss by this
industry from its inception in 1976 is nearing $100
billion."
This is an industry fueled on hope.
Agrobiotech, and the early entrants (Amgen,
Genentech) have done well (by acquisitions) but
human applications have had only modest success.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Biotech:
The Genetic Substrate
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Promise of Biological Science:
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
–
–
–
–
Disease elimination
Vital longevity (“squaring the survival curve”)
Optimal development
Information theory of the cell
Bad news: Biology is a saturated substrate.
 HAR & Heterochrony in H. Sapiens vs. Chimps
(“Going Backward to Go Forward”)
 Terminal Differentiation / Path Dependency in complex biology
 Bottom-up experiments not possible (too slow & unethical in biology).
Only half the bottom-up + top-down creativity pair remains.
 Bioengineering blocks (pharmacologic and genetic)
See also:
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html
2006
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Terminal Differentiation: Evo Devo in
Homo sapiens is a Saturated Substrate
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity
– Biologically-inspired computing. Structural mimicry.
But 21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t
accelerate biological complexity
– Neurohomeostasis fights all “top-down” interventions
– We are terminally differentiated and path dependent.
We’ll never biologically “redesign humans”
– No time, ability or motivation to do so.
– Expect “regression to mean” (elimination of disease)
instead.
We have strong cultural immunity to disruptive and
“dehumanizing” biointerventions
– Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity issues.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Phase Transition Hypothesis: Complexity is Built By
Mainly Bottom-Up, Weakly Top-Down Processes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Evolution and Development are mostly bottom-up
processes, guided only secondarily by top-down
(psychological, intentional) mechanisms.
Consciousness and cognition function much less to
make the world than to experience it.
This is humbling, but the history of science and
technology is one of mostly serendipity, not intention.
See Connections for more...
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Given the Way Evo Devo Phase Transitions Emerge,
How Do We Make a More Complex Human?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
By Very Weak Top-Down Guidance of Mostly BottomUp Processes.
But in what substrate?
Bottom-up biology is:
 Old, very slow, and resource intensive
 Subject to antagonistic plieotropy/DMA
 Subject to path dependency
Bottom-up technology is:
 New, very fast, and MEST efficient
 Far less antagonistic plieotropy, because of high
modularity
 Little path dependency early in its evolutionary
development.
Which would you bet on?
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Biologically-Inspired Technology and
Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Today we have weakly biologically-inspired computing
technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms,
developmental genetic programming, belief networks,
support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc.)
When such systems become:
 Strongly biologically-inspired
 Extensively self-improving (semi-autonomous)
 Leading strategies for creating complex systems
We will know that the technological singularity is near.
For more,
attend:
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Promise of Technology
What Does the Universe “Want” from It?
Smart’s Laws of Technology
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of
technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,
P2P as a proprietary or open source development)
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity,
and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of
Science and the Microcosm (Wigner and Mead)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the
Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960
After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on simple
universalities and symmetries in mathematical physics.
F=ma
E=mc2
W=(1/2mv2)
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics
in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
In 1968, Mead predicted we would create
much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million
chip transistors that would run far faster and
more efficiently. He later generalized this
observation to a number of other devices.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The MESTI Universe
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information
Increasingly Understood
 Poorly Known
MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency is the ever
decreasing MEST resources required for any
standard physical process or computation. The engine
of accelerating change. “More, Better, with Less.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Physics of a “MESTI” Universe
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Physical Driver:
 MEST Compression (Efficiency and Density)
Emergent Properties:
 Information Intelligence (World Models)
 Information Interdepence (Ethics)
 Information Immunity (Resiliency)
 Information Incompleteness (Search)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory:
↑ Entropy = ↑ Negentropy
Loss of Energy Potential fuels gain of Information
Potential. A hidden metapotential is conserved.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of
Resources” for Leading Edge Computation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit





Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Our machines are stunningly more MEST efficient
with each new generation.
Our main candidates for future computational
technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing,
reversible logic, etc.) require little or no energy.
We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient,
sustainable, and virtual cities.
Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed
Service Economies.
Global energy intensity (energy consumption per
capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the
developed world.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Leading-Edge Developmental Niches
are Increasingly Local in Space and Time
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Biogenesis required a cooling Earth-crust, and billennia.
Multicellular organisms required a Cambrian Explosion,
and millennia.
Human culture required a Linguistic Explosion, and tens
of thousands of years.
Science and technology revolutions required a Social
Enlightenment, a fraction of the preserved biomass of
Earth’s extinct species, and hundreds of years.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Intelligent computers will apparently be able to model
the birth and death of the universe with the refuse thrown
away annually by one American family. In tens of years?
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): Developmental
MEST Compression in Dissipative Structures
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate
Ф
(ergs/second/gram)
time
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Plants
Animals/Genetics
Brains (Human)
Culture (Human)
Int. Comb. Engines
Jets
Pentium Chips
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
0.5
2 (counterintuitive)
75
900
20,000(10^4)
150,000(10^5)
500,000(10^5)
(10^6)
(10^8)
(10^11)
Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Adrian Bejan’s Constructal Law:
MEST Compression as Thermodynamic Imperative
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“For a flow system to persist (i.e., live) it must over time
provide easier access [in space and time] to the
currents [matter and energy] that flow through it.”
See: Shape and Structure, From Engineering to Nature, Adrian Bejan, 2000; and
“Survival of the Likeliest,” John Whitfield, PLoS Biol. 2007 May; 5(5): e142
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Geerat Vermeij’s Escalation Hypothesis:
MEST Compression as Predator-Prey Macroevolution
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Macroevolution has directionality. Over time, species with high energy
requirements in general, and top predators with more sophisticated
means of modeling and obtaining their prey in particular, replace their
less metabolically intensive and less specialized predecessors.
See: Evolution and Escalantion, Geerat Vermeij, 1995;
“Inequality and the Directionality of History,” GJ Vermeij, American Naturalist, 153(3) 1999;
“Directionality in the History of Life,” AH Knoll and RK Bambach, Paleobiology, 26(4) 2000.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Roderick Dewar’s Maximum Entropy Production;
MEST Compression as Information Theory
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) (per MEST measure) is the most probable
behavior of an open, nonequilibrium system made up of many interacting
elements, provided the system is free to (evolutionarily) choose its state and not
subject to strong external forces.
Over evolutionary time, the leading organisms are those best at rapidly degrading
energy flows, converting them to nonlocal entropy, and increasing local order.
See: Maximum Entropy Production and Non-Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics; and
“Survival of the Likeliest,” John Whitfield, PLoS Biol. 2007 May; 5(5): e142
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Buckminster Fuller: MEST Compression as
Ephemeralization (Our ‘Weightless’ Economy)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath
Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing
that in nature, "all progressions are from material to
abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage."
(e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)
Due to principles like superposition, entanglement,
negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum
(electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than
the world of collective electricity.
In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical,
metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly
effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of
materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he
called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and
energy per each given level of functional performance”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and
Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression and Inner Space:
The Final Frontier?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998.
Real structures in spacetime (very large and very small) are:
• Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent)
• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
• A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
versus
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Non-Autonomous ISS
Autonomous Human Brain
© 2007 Accelerating.org
China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit







Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Annual average GDP growth of 9.5%
(Some urban areas up to 20%!)
Largest global producer of toys,
clothing, consumer electronics.
Moving into cars, computers,
biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc.
1.5 billion hard workers “greatest
natural resource on the planet.”
High savings, factory wages start at
40 cents/hour
45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories
20,000 European Contract Factories
15,000 U.S. Contract Factories
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36
million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's
population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us.

From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail e-commerce
(business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for
the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5
million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current
projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per
capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4X
higher than China’s.

In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than
6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China
already had the single largest population of online gamers.

Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the
future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future.”
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace:
User-Modified 3D Persistent Worlds
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Global Collaboration and
Coexperience Environments
Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others
Streaming video coming 2008.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future Salon in Second Life
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
“NISCB”: Five Substrates for Complexity
Development (Arranged “Fastest First”)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Nanotech (nanoscale science and technology)
Infotech (computing, comm., and engrg. technology)
Sociotech (org. and social technology)
Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors)
Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a
still-early technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older,
less centrally accelerating technologies.
Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and
diffusion. First and second mover advantages.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace:
Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Lasers today can made cheaply only in some
areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for
example, UV laser light for cancer detection
and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004
that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen
gas, a device known as a "photonic
crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the
wavelengths previously unavailable.
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit



Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic
array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle)
acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy
efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of
jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT
and networking revolutions.
Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in
physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why
they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we
remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression Implication:
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Technological (dominant since 1920-50)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in
itself, how easily it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 50,000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of
the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Good Infotech Intro Book: The Future of Technology
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit












Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
IT development
IT security
IT education and service
Outsourcing and telework
Metaverse (3D web)
Mobile devices
Digital home and work
Biotech and health
Energy
Nanotech
Robotics
Artificial Intelligence
The Future of Technology, Tom Standage, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Our Generation’s Theme
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
First World Saturating
Emerging Nations Gap-Closing
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Network Economy 1.0
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America as of
2003, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?
Remittances
(From Guest Workers in
U.S. and Canada)
Foreign Direct
Investment
(Corporate)
NGO’s
(Nonprofit Contribs)
Government Aid
(IMF, WB, G8, USAID)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Gapminder.org:
Statistics brought to life
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Global marginal income
distribution is normalizing.
Is this a technology trend?
1970: Isolated economies
2000: Connected, flattening
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Public Transparency:
Privacy vs. Anonymity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Wearcam.org’s
first-generation
‘sousveillance’
systems
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
David Brin’s “Panopticon”
The Transparent Society, 1998
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper
currency
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap:
Our New Global Defense Paradigm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Core Countries vs the Technologically,
Culturally, and Economically Disconnected
Gap Countries, which together form a
socio-computational “Ozone Hole.”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion:
Convergent Technology in a Network Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters)
Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins)
Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours)
Next Gen: Video recording.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Networked Transparent Weapons
(NTWs) convert security systems
from intrinsically offensive
intrinsically defensive assets.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground)
of our Global Network Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Sputnik (1957)
Humbot 0.1 (2005)
Humbot 1.0 (2030)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
Q: Will the U.S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1.0?
This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend Timing: Prioritizing Competing Views of the Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
The relative timing of trends is even more important than their speed or duration.
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: Which comes first: “World Wide Mind” or “Digital Symbionts?”
Rodolpho Llinas, NYU SOM. Threading
nanowires through the brain to record
and stimulate across blood vessels.
Prediction: We’ll link people globally
into a “World Wide Mind.”
22nd Century, PBS, 2007
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Vernor Vinge, SDSU. Science fiction
author. Prediction: The coming tech
singularity (circa 2030’s) will be
preceded in the 2020’s by a Wearable
Web, which will allow Avatar extensions
of our personality and symbiotic teams.
“Time is nature’s way of keeping everything from happening all at
once.”— Woody Allen
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Priorities for the Future
Responsible Life and Health Sciences Research
The Challenge in Managing
Technological Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Since the birth of civilization, humanity has been
learning to build special types of technological systems
that are progressively able to do more for us, in a more
networked and resilient fashion, using less resources
(matter, energy, space, time, human and economic
capital) to deliver any fixed amount of complexity,
productivity, or capability.
We are faced daily with many possible evolutionary
choices in which to invest our precious time, energy,
and resources, but only a few optimal developmental
pathways will clearly "do more, and better, with less."
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral (Balanced and Complete) Foresight:
Greeks, Pronouns, Skill Sets and Processes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
True
What Is
It/Its
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Greeks
Good
What ‘We’ Want
Pronouns
We/He/She/You
Beautiful
What ‘I’ Want
I/Me
Discovery
Global
Foresight Skill Sets
Management
Social/Organizational
Processes of Change
Creativity
Individual
Development
Convergence
System Dynamics
Laws/Emergences
Evolution
Divergence
© 2007 Accelerating.org
We Have a Universal Purpose
We Can Discover and Create It Every Day
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit









Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Be Kind, Help Each Other
Be Brave, Travel New Ground
Work Hard, Celebrate Excellence
Give TURTLES (Trust, Understanding, Respect,
Truthfulness, Love, Equity, Support)
Improve the Intelligence, Interdependence, Immunity,
and Intimacy of humanity and our technology.
Discover, Create, and Manage
Innovate, Plan, Benefit, and Study
Seek the Good, the True, and the Beautiful
Develop and Explore Inner Space (the Mind of
Humanity and the Nanospace of Science and Tech)
for Wisdom and Ability in Outer Space
© 2007 Accelerating.org
We Are Very Nearly Each Other,
But Importantly Unique
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Microsatellite Markers
Our Challenge:
 Increasing Brotherhood (Development)
 Celebrating Uniqueness (Evolution)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Discussion