MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 17 Issue 8 1 – 31 August 2012 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my HIGHLIGHTS FOKUS • Eurozone economy shrinks by 0.2% • G-7 countries call for increased oil output to meet demand • Malaysia diiktiraf pusat kewangan Islam • Germans say Malaysia one of the most attractive investment spots • RM112m boost for Sabah schools • Kota Belud pusat industri minyak, gas Sabah INTERNATIONAL ANTARABANGSA currency retreated and investors increased bets on an interest-rate cut. The jobless rate gained to 6.8 percent from 6.7 percent in the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said in a report today in Wellington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was 6.5 percent. Employment dropped by 0.1 percent, or 2,000 jobs, from the first quarter, when it increased 0.4 percent. (9 August, Bloomberg) Singapore trims growth forecast on global slowdown risks: Singapore cut the upper end of its economic growth forecast for 2012 as a global slowdown from Europe to China weighs on the island’s expansion. The Southeast Asian country’s gross domestic product will probably rise 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent this year, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in a televised message yesterday on the eve of the city state’s National Day. The government previously predicted growth of 1 percent to 3 percent. The economy grew 1.7 percent in the first half, he said. “Europe and the U.S. face serious economic problems,” Lee said. “Asia is doing better than other regions, but China and India are slowing down.” (9 August, Bloomberg) Russia holds rates for eighth month as inflation quickens: Russia’s central bank refrained from raising borrowing costs for an eighth month even as inflation accelerated, saying higher interbank rates were already subduing lending growth. Bank Rossii’s main refinancing rate was left at 8 percent, a quarter-point above the record low, the Moscowbased central bank said in a statement on its website today. The decision was predicted by 18 of 19 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The overnight auction-based repurchase rate was kept at 5.25 percent and the overnight deposit rate will stay at 4 percent. (10 August, Bloomberg) Australians’ confidence wanes, wages gain in conundrum: Economy: Australian consumer confidence fell by the most in five months even as wages climbed, sending mixed signals on the economy as the central bank weighs whether to hold interest rates at a developed-world high. The sentiment index dropped 2.5 percent to 96.6, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) and Melbourne Institute Aug. 6-10 survey of 1,200 consumers released in Sydney today. A government report showed the wage-price index, which measures hourly pay rates excluding bonuses, rose 3.7 percent in the second quarter from 12 months earlier as mine workers’ pay surged. (15 August, Bloomberg) German business confidence falls again, says IFO: German business confidence has fallen for the fourth month in a row to a 29-month low, according to the closely-watched IFO survey. The index compiled by the think tank fell to 102.3 in August from a downwardly revised 103.2 in July. The survey of 7,000 firms suggests businesses are increasingly nervous about Germany’s ability to withstand the weak eurozone economy. Growth in Europe’s largest economy slowed between April and June to 0.3%. “Enterprises are increasingly pessimistic about their business development,” IFO president Hans-Werner Sinn said. “The German economy is weakening further.” (27 August, BBC News) Japan cuts economic view amid slowing exports: The Japanese government cut its view of the economy in August for the first time in 10 months as slowing exports weighed on production and consumer spending failed to expand. In its monthly economic report released Tuesday, the government said the economy is “on the way to recovery at a moderate pace” but added that “weak movements have been seen recently.” The government expects reconstruction-related spending after the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami to continue to support domestic demand, but downside risks remain amid an unclear outlook for the global economy. (27 August, The Wall Street Journal) French leaders return—to worsening economic outlook: The French government returned from vacation on Wednesday facing the rising challenge of cutting the deficit and delivering on election promises, while acknowledging it may have been overly optimistic about the strength of the economy. Over the summer, France’s economic outlook has fallen sharply, and many economists now see gross-domesticproduct growth below the 1.2% the government has forecast for next year. The average 2013 GDP growth forecast in August of economists polled by Consensus Economics fell to 0.5% from 0.7% in July. (22 August, The Wall Street Journal) Eurozone economy shrinks by 0.2%: The economy of the eurozone shrank 0.2% in the three months from April to June compared with the previous quarter. The figures from Eurostat covering the 17 countries that use the euro followed zero growth in the previous quarter. Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, helped by exports and domestic consumption. France announced its economy had recorded zero growth in the period, which was better than had been expected. The French economy had also posted zero growth in the previous two quarters. (14 August, BBC News) G-7 countries call for increased oil output to meet demand: The Group of Seven nations called on oilproducing countries to increase output and are monitoring the threats to their economies posed by high oil prices, according to a joint statement issued today by the U.S. Treasury Department. “We remain vigilant of the risks to the global economy,” the G-7 said. “In this context and mindful of the substantial risks posed by elevated oil prices, we are monitoring the situation in oil markets closely.” The G-7 said it’s prepared to call upon the International Energy Agency, a 28-member group of oil consuming countries, “to take appropriate action to ensure that the market is fully and timely supplied.” (28 August, Bloomberg) N.Z. jobless rate rises to two-year high of 6.8%; Kiwi falls: New Zealand’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a two-year high last quarter, adding to evidence of a weak economic recovery. The local 1 – 31 August 2012 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 NATIONAL NASIONAL Malaysia diiktiraf pusat kewangan Islam: Jemputan Sudan untuk Malaysia menubuhkan bank kewangan Islam di negara itu membuktikan bahawa dunia mengiktiraf Malaysia sebagai pusat dan hub kewangan Islam. Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah berkata, kerajaan bagaimanapun perlu berbincang dengan bank yang terlibat berhubung jemputan itu. “Berhubung permohonan daripada negara Sudan, perkara ini kita perlu berbincang dengan pihak bank, sama ada mereka bersedia untuk pergi ke Sudan atau tidak,” katanya kepada pemberita selepas program membeli-belah bersama anak-anak yatim di sebuah pasar raya di Ipoh, semalam. (13 Ogos, Utusan Malaysia) Germans say Malaysia one of the most attractive investment spots: German companies remain optimistic about Malaysia’s economic and business prospects. MalaysianGerman Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MGCC) executive director Alexander Stedtfeld said Germany’s investment in Malaysia was expected to remain broad based as it has been all along. “Malaysia is one of the most attractive business destinations with a business friendly environment, competitive cost structure, a wellskilled workforce as well as a base for regional activities,” Stedtfeld said. (10 August, Business Times) Industri mineral berkembang: Industri mineral Malaysia, yang menghasilkan mineral utama bernilai RM6.18 bilion tahun lepas, dijangka berkembang tahun ini dan seterusnya, didorong oleh peningkatan aktiviti penerokaan dengan permintaan yang kukuh. Dianggarkan nilai mineral utama yang dikeluarkan pada 2010 adalah RM3.99 bilion. Jumlah kelulusan dan pembaharuan bagi lesen cari gali dan pajakan perlombongan meningkat tahun lepas dengan kira-kira 50 pajakan perlombongan baru diberikan oleh pihak berkuasa negeri tahun lepas dengan 152 pajakan perlombongan yang dikeluarkan pada 2010. (25 Ogos, Utusan Malaysia) Ekonomi suku ketiga, keempat negara dijangka terus meningkat: Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) dijangka terus mencatatkan 1 – 31 August 2012 pertumbuhan positif pada suku ketiga dan keempat tahun ini ekoran peningkatan pengeluaran minyak mentah termasuk pelaburan swasta. Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah berkata, kekuatan dalaman yang dimiliki Malaysia itu juga dilihat mampu memperteguhkan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara biarpun perkembangannya turut dipengaruhi oleh persekitaran global. Beliau berkata, kedudukan ekonomi negara turut berada dalam keadaan stabil memandangkan eksport Malaysia kelima negara Eropah yang berdepan krisis ekonomi seperti Greece, Ireland, Itali, Portugal dan Sepanyol adalah rendah iaitu hanya melibatkan 1.5 peratus. (20 Ogos, Utusan Malaysia) ‘Malaysia and Cambodia can boost trade links’: Malaysia and Cambodia are set for stronger trade and economic ties in the future by riding on the robustness of various business sectors. They include banking, tourism, agriculture, textile, manufacturing, port, energy, infrastructure, telecommunications and property. International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said bilateral trade between the two countries has been growing at an average rate of 10 per cent for the past 10 years, well above the growth of world trade at six to seven per cent. “Cambodia is one of the fastest growing Asean economies right now and there are many Malaysian businessmen with many success stories here. (28 August, Business Times) Malaysia’s June industrial production index up 3.7% on-year: Malaysia’s industrial production index (IPI) recorded a 3.7% growth in June from a year ago, but it declined 1.9% from May. The Statistics Department said on Thursday the manufacturing index recorded a 4.8% increase and electricity 5.9% but there was a 0.3% decline in the mining index. “The manufacturing output in June 2012 registered a growth of 4.8%, on yearon-year basis. Output for May 2012 increased 6.7% (revised) as compared with the same month last year,” it said. “The output for the mining sector recorded a marginal decrease of 0.3% in June 2012 as compared with the same month of 2011,” it said. (9 August, The Star) Malaysian economy to perform well relative to other Asian nations: The Malaysian economy is poised to continue well relative to other Asian nations as it is supported by strong private consumption growth, says Anthony Yau, Head of Asian Emerging Markets at State Street Global Advisors. He said the country’s economy compared favourably to other Asian nations in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. “Private consumption has been the primary driver here as it is among the strongest in the region and continues to be supported by widespread pay raises for civil servants heading into the elections,” he told Bernama. Yaw said populist government policies should continue to sustain domestic demand and subsequent GDP growth. (9 August, The Star) Malaysia industrial output growth slips: Industrial output in Malaysia grew by 3.7 percent in June, supported by stronger manufacturing activities during the month. It was slower from May’s 7.6 percent but not unexpected said economists. According to the Statistics Department, increases in activities during June were mostly in transport equipment and other manufactures, petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products. Alliance Bank chief economist Manokaran Mottain said June data showed that the manufacturing activity is still on a low gear, as it has posted a marginal drop of 0.4 percent month-on-month. (10 August, Business Times) Exports exceed market expectations: Malaysia’s exports surged in June, pointing to a better outlook for the economy in the second quarter. However, economists cautioned that the strength in external demand is not likely to last, given the uncertainties hovering in the global economy. Exports exceeded market expectations and a Business Times poll, registering a growth of 5.4 per cent to RM60.97 billion compared with June 2011, while imports increased by 3.6 per cent to RM51.78 billion. The International Trade and Industry Ministry (MITI) said exports of manufactured goods rose by 5.8 per cent and electrical and electronic products, which are the largest subsector with a 33.6 percent share, registered a 2.1 per cent increase. (9 August, Business Times) MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 2 LOCAL TEMPATAN RM112m boost for Sabah schools: The Federal Government has allocated RM112 million for 429 government schools, Mission schools, Chinese national-type schools (SJKC) and governmentaided religious schools in Sabah under its special stimulus package for schools this year. Most of this or RM95.9m goes to 283 government schools, while RM10.8m are for 70 national-type Chinese schools, RM3.7m for 74 Mission schools and for two government-aided religious schools, RM1.5m. This is part of the RM900m allocated for schools nationwide under the said stimulus package meant to provide assistance in building, upgrading and maintaining the schools concerned. (8 August, Daily Express) Kota Belud pusat industri minyak, gas Sabah: Penemuan telaga minyak baru di perairan Kota Belud akan membolehkan daerah itu menjadi pusat industri minyak dan gas di negeri ini. Ahli Parlimen Kota Belud, Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan berkata, justeru itu, kerajaan negeri akan mengeksploitasi potensi industri minyak dan gas di daerah itu sebaik mungkin. “Kita telah membincangkan mengenai pembangunan minyak dan gas dan Ketua Menteri, Datuk Seri Musa Aman secara prinsipnya telah bersetuju mewujudkan satu pusat kejuruteraan minyak dan gas di Kuala Abai. “Kita berharap agensi yang menerajui projek itu adalah agensi yang paling berjaya dalam industri itu,” katanya pada majlis Rumah Terbuka Aidilfitri anjuran beliau yang turut dihadiri oleh Musa, di Tuaran semalam. (23 Ogos, Utusan Malaysia) K’jaan lulus intensif pengeluaran getah kepada 23,738 pekebun kecil: Kerajaan Negeri telah meluluskan insentif pengeluaran getah untuk seramai 23,738 pekebun kecil getah, kata Pembantu Menteri Pembangunan Masyarakat dan Hal Ehwal Pengguna, Datuk Herbert Timbon Lagadan. Katanya, Lembaga Industri Getah Sabah (LIGS) telah diberi tanggungjawab untuk mengendalikan dan melaksanakan Skim Insentif Pengeluaran Getah dan kadar insentif yang akan diberikan adalah berdasarkan kepada hasil 1 – 31 August 2012 keluaran getah milik pekebun kecil yang dijual kepada LIGS. (16 Ogos, New Sabah Times) Clean water soon for Pulau Gaya: Gaya Island will soon have clean water after the round-the-clock power supply as the government strives to improve the living condition of the islanders. Deputy Chief Minister Datuk Seri Yahya Hussin said the government has allocated RM93 million to provide clean water to four villages, namely Kesuapan, Lok Baru, Lok Urai and Pulau Gaya on the island. “The water project has just kicked off early this month under the first phase and by next year, the island will enjoy uninterrupted clean water,” he said. Yahya said the residents in the four villages have just begun enjoying 24-hour power supply last Friday. (5 August, New Sabah Times) Togudon folks to get electricity soon: Residents of Kampung Togudon, Penampang have been assured of power supply to their homes soon. Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) representatives yesterday revealed that power supply are already available and that it was only a matter of connecting the power to their homes. The assurance was given during a dialogue held at the village, located about 25km from here near the Tambunan border, in the presence of Moyog assemblyman Datuk Donald Mojuntin. Also present were Datuk Philip Lasimbang, who is the political secretary to Penampang MP Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, district officer William Sampil, village head Gamato Galagub and Village Security and Development committee chairman, Dalin Emmanuel. (24 August, New Sabah Times) Tambunan’s water woes to end next year, says Pairin: Five million ringgit has been allocated to resolve the water problem here. Deputy Chief Minister Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan said the water supply interruptions which often happened during the rainy season would be overcome by February next year. Pairin who is also Infrastructure Development Minister said this when he inspected upgrading work at the water intake at Sungai Tondulu yesterday. He said he was happy with the work progress. Meanwhile, district water engineer Geofry Lausi said the upgrading work which started in April was now 53 per cent completed. (5 August, New Sabah Times) RISDA developing 6,500 hectares for Sabah’s replanting assistance programme: Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority (RISDA) is developing 6,500 hectares (ha) of land in Sabah through the replanting assistance programme. State RISDA Deputy Director Ramli Tumin said the development will be implemented this year involving 3,000 participants comprising smallholders and targeted at rural areas. He said a total of RM37 million is allocated for the programme aimed at helping participants generate income and lift them out of poverty. Through this programme, they will be given assistance of RM14,000 per ha covering fertiliser, seedlings and cash, he told Bernama after the launch of RISDA village development by Beluran Member of Parliament, Datuk Ronald Kiandee, here in Telupid today. (12 August, New Sabah Times) Two projects in Tawau involving public-private cooperation to take off soon: Two projects in Tawau worth millions of Ringgit and which will have a positive impact on the nation’s economy are in the process of implementation involving publicprivate sector collaboration. Chief Secretary to the Government Datuk Seri Ali Hamsa said one of the projects was the geothermal power plant in Apas Kiri involving a private investment of RM500 million and capable of generating 30MW of electricity (during the first phase of the project), while the other was the Sipadan Mangrove Resort project. On the geothermal project which will commence soon, he said although it involved a large private sector investment, the government had put in 10 per cent of the investment value. (13 August, New Sabah Times) SEDCO peruntuk RM7 juta untuk bina 28 unit rumah kedai di Sabah tahun depan: Perbadanan Pembangunan Ekonomi Sabah (SEDCO) memperuntukkan kira-kira RM7 juta tahun depan bagi membina 28 unit rumah kedai untuk usahawan Bumiputera di negeri ini. Pengerusinya Datuk Mohd Arifin Md Arif berkata daripada jumlah itu, 12 unit akan dibina di Pelantung, Beluran manakala masing-masing lapan unit dibangunkan di Rancangan Sungai Manila, Sandakan dan pekan Tengilan di Tamparuli. (29 Ogos, New Sabah Times) MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 3 SELECTED FACTS AND FIGURES FAKTA MUTAKHIR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (IPI), MALAYSIA, JUNE 2012 Seasonally Adjusted Index Sector Original Index Index % Changes Month-on-month Index % Changes Year-on-year 111.8 -1.9 111.4 3.7 Mining Index 84.9 -1.1 80.5 -0.3 Manufacturing Index 122.5 -0.4 124.3 4.8 Electricity Index 130.6 0.5 132.3 5.9 IPI (Source: 9 August, Department of Statistics Malaysia) INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE, MALAYSIA, SECOND QUARTER 2012 Sub-sector Original Volume Index % Change Seasonally YoY Adjusted 4.0 122.7 % Change QoQ 2.4 Index Distributive Trade 122.3 Index of Wholesale Trade 125.5 3.1 125.5 2.8 Index of Retail Trade 120.7 3.7 121.9 1.4 Index of Motor Vehicles 118.1 7.1 117.7 3.4 (Source: 13 August, Department of Statistics Malaysia) PERFORMANCE OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE SECTOR, MALAYSIA, SECOND QUARTER 2012 Sector Distributive Trade Sales value Second Quarter % Change (RM million) YoY QoQ 208,607 6.7 2.3 Number of persons Second Quarter % Change (Number) YoY QoQ 1,551,816 1.3 -0.1 Wholesale Trade 107,481 3.9 2.2 309,964 2.0 0.4 Retail Trade 70,237 9.3 1.8 924,679 1.2 -0.2 Motor Vehicles 30,889 10.7 4.0 236,173 0.5 -0.7 (Source: 16 August, Department of Statistics Malaysia) 1 – 31 August 2012 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 4 MALAYSIA’S PERFORMANCE OF THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Percentage change (%) Quarter No. of projects Value of construction work done (RM ‘000) (QoQ) (YoY) 8,818 8,585 7,648 20,348,855 17,725,906 15,040,543 14.8 0.4 -3.1 35.3 14.2 -6.0 Q2/ 2012 Q1/2012 Q2/2011 (Source: 17 August, Department of Statistics Malaysia) MALAYSIA’S MAIN EXPORT MARKETS Market June 2012 June 2011 RM million Total exports China Singapore Japan United States Hong Kong Australia Thailand South Korea Indonesia India 60,974.7 8,294.0 7,917.5 7,095.8 5,252.1 2,905.1 2,753.4 2,693.4 2,490.5 2,447.0 2,386.8 57,855.0 7,324.8 7,808.1 5,683.2 5,008.7 2,574.6 2,395.2 3,158.2 2,388.5 1,847.8 2,674.3 (Source: 9 August, Business Times) PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF PPI (2005=100) FOR LOCAL PRODUCTION BY CATEGORY (MSIC 2000) AND STAGE OF PROCESSING, MALAYSIA Category Code Jul 2011 Index Jun 2012 Jul 2012 100.00 137.0 135.1 136.3 0.9 -0.5 A B C D E 6.60 0.81 9.83 80.00 2.76 193.0 137.6 187.3 126.9 118.0 180.5 155.1 172.8 126.9 120.7 182.5 156.1 185.3 126.8 120.3 1.1 0.6 7.2 -0.1 -0.3 -5.4 13. -1.1 -0.1 1.9 1 100.00 14.88 137.0 190.0 135.1 174.1 136.3 183.2 0.9 5.2 -0.5 -3.6 2 54.62 137.2 137.7 137.4 -0.2 0.1 3 30.50 111.0 111.3 111.3 0.0 0.3 Total Agriculture Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water supply PPI by stage of processing Crude materials for further processing Intermediate materials, supplies and components Finished goods weight Percentage Jun 2012Jul 2011Jul 2012 Jul 2012 PPI: Producer Price Index (Source: 30 August, Department of Statistics Malaysia) 1 – 31 August 2012 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 5