Development of Russian-Turkish
energy cooperation as the factor
of Turkey's role in the world
economic system (Turkish Stream
factor)
Dr. Doç. Alexander Sotnichenko
Saint-Petersburg State University
School of International Relations
Russia
Turkish stream
Why "Turkish Stream" is a very profitable
project for Turkey?
Transition risks
Turkey gets stable gas supply of the western
regions. Now it depends on unreliable transit
country (Ukraine). East European countries have
already encountered the problem of insufficient
reliability of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. In
2009, due to unsanctioned tapping of gas by
Ukraine Slovakia, Bulgaria and Moldova faced fuel
crisis in winter. The continuation of the conflict
between Russia and Ukraine can influence
the uninterrupted transit of Russian gas to
Turkey too (14 BCM 45% at risk).
Control the transit
Turkey becomes an important transit country for
Russian gas to southern Europe and control its
transit. In the future, this may become an
instrument of political pressure on the consumers.
Ankara has its interests in the Balkans. Controlling
the pipeline could be an important political factor in
its foreign policy. Turkish leaders have repeatedly
stated their desire to turn the country into a gas
transportation hub of global importance.
Implementation of the "Turkish Stream" project
actually supports these aspirations.
Money profit
Turkey receives a significant gas discount (the
10.25% discount was negotiated). According to
T.Yildiz the annual profit will reach 1 bln.
Dollars. This significant amount can be spent on
a radical modernization of the Turkish gas
infrastructure
or
joint
Turkish-Russian
beneficial investment projects.
Russia investor
Russia is an investor, financing the construction
of the pipeline (the same style like Akkuyu
project). Turkey is able to attract local
companies and create new jobs during the
construction of the gas transmission network in
its territory, as well as its maintenance after
implementation.
Transit security
Strategic partnership
The agreement on the construction of "Turkish
Stream" is a sign of a special trust in relations
between Moscow and Ankara. Russia, therefore,
trusts Turkey gas transit and pipeline network
security. This is an obstacle to decrease the
development of potential conflicts between the two
countries. The high level of trust between the
countries provides the openness of the Russian
market for Turkish investment. This is especially
actual for the Black Sea region of Russia and
particular Crimea.
Political co-operation
Successful implementation of the "Turkish Stream" project
will deliver a new level of political relations between our
countries. In particular, it will be possible to speak again
about the plans of establishment a regional organization
for conflict resolution in the Middle East and the
Caucasus. In 2008, such a proposal was made in the
agenda of the R.T. Erdogan - "Platform of Stability and
Cooperation in the Caucasus". Currently, the Russian
authorities are also concerned with the creation of an
international regional organization, which may be
competent to be a joint resolution of the security
problems in the Middle East, as Russian Foreign
Minister Lavrov has repeatedly said during his recent
visits to the Middle East.
Opponents
• The project "Turkish Stream" has a number of
opponents. Primarily these include the US and
EU. Using its influence on Turkey, they are
trying to convince Ankara to abandon the project
because of their conflict with Russia. Russia
hopes that Turkey is able to choose their
own
allies
and
favorable
foreign
economic projects as a country with an
independent foreign policy
Suffer
• Turkey's refusal from the project would
negatively affect the development of relations
with Russia. It is unlikely that it will be possible
in the future maintain the status of "strategic
partnership." Russia has a serious impact on
tourism, construction, financial, investment,
agricultural and other markets in Turkey, so, in
case of the failure of Ankara to participate in the
"Turkish Stream" these areas of cooperation will
suffer.