The Leadership Experience Pre-Work
Developing a Plausible Scenario of the Future
(“Seeing Around Corners”)
Purpose:
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Practice thinking through the implications of forces and uncertainties that can influence Microsoft’s and
SMSG’s future
Broaden the perspectives we take as SMSG leaders in determining how we can position our businesses for
the future
Develop a curiosity and interest in data and information that can be disruptive – even to our existing
business model
Instructions:
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Dedicate 45-minutes at minimum for this pre-work
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Challenging assumptions is not easily done alone. If possible, ask others to join you for a quick exercise in
thinking through the future – you could ask members of your team, peer-level colleagues, or even
colleagues external to Microsoft.
Follow each step closely, complete through the steps requested, and bring a printed copy of your work to
The Leadership Experience. Use the inventory of larger templates as needed to prepare your work. We
will compare and discuss scenarios in the morning of Day 1 of The Leadership Experience.
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The Industry or Business Unit you are considering:
Scenarios about the Future of __________________________________
Geography: _____________________________
Time Frame: 20___
Step 1: Identify Forces
Forces are current or future developments that are likely to influence the outcome of your central question in the
future.
For each STEEPC category below, list 1-3 important forces per category that you know are present, or are
emerging. Consider headlines, trends, and disruptions that will fundamentally shift the business environment you
are considering.
STEEPC forces:
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Social ______________________________________________________________________________
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Technological _____________________________________________________________________
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Economic __________________________________________________________________________
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Environmental ____________________________________________________________________
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Political / Regulatory _____________________________________________________________
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Competitive landscape ___________________________________________________________
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Step 2: Create a 2X2 Scenario Matrix
Choose the two most important uncertainties from your list, and call them U1 and U2. Make sure that each of
these uncertainties induces high variance in the scenarios, and that the two uncertainties are not too correlated
with each other.
U1 _____________________________________________
U2 _____________________________________________
Cross the two uncertainties in a two-by-two table. Each pairing from these two uncertainties should create very
different and interesting worlds.
Provide non-judgmental, neutral and memorable titles for each cell that captures the essence of that scenario.
Template 1: Scenario 2X2 Matrix Template:
Extreme
Extreme
SCENARIO
Extreme A TITLE:
Extreme
SCENARIO BExtreme
TITLE:
SCENARIO C TITLE:
SCENARIO D TITLE:
Extreme
U2:____________________________
U1:_____________________________________
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Step 3: Consider the Likelihood and Preparedness
Rank each of the scenarios (each of the four quadrants) in the following way:
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Likelihood: You have a total of 100 points. Divide the 100 points across the scenarios based on your view
how likely it is that each scenario in fact will play out by 20XX. Place this in the “ ______%” section.
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Preparedness: On a scale from 1-7, where by 1 is not prepared and 7 is fully prepared, rank the
preparedness of Microsoft and SMSG as is today in respect to each of the scenarios.
Extreme
eExtrem
Extrem
eExtrem
SCENARIO B TITLE:
e
Extrem
Extreme
SCENARIO
Extreme A TITLE:
_____% LIKELIHOOD
_____ PREPAREDNESS
_____% LIKELIHOOD
_____PREPAREDNESS
SCENARIO C TITLE:
SCENARIO D TITLE:
_____% LIKELIHOOD
_____ PREPAREDNESS
_____% LIKELIHOOD
_____PREPAREDNESS
e
Extreme
Template 2: Likelihood & Preparedness
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Extreme
Extreme
Step 4: Deep-Dive Assessment of Impact on Microsoft & SMSG
While each of the scenarios is one possible future, as determined by the probabilities you assigned on the previous
slide, we would like you to pick ONE of the four scenarios for a deeper dive. Specifically, we would like you to pick
the one scenario from the 2x2 scenario matrix for which you believe SMSG to be the LEAST prepared today (while
having a probability of occurring at 10% or higher).
For your chosen scenario, please conduct a deeper dive by filling out the following templates:
The scenario snapshot is a description of the future as if it was the year 20XX. For your chosen scenario,
summarize the “story” in a handful of bullets that capture the essence of the scenario.
YOUR CHOSEN SCENARIO:___________________________________________________
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The scenario headlines are a list of news headlines that you might expect to see as the scenario unfolds over time.
These headlines should depict a plausible path into the future, just to illustrate the flavor of the scenario. For your
chosen scenario, imagine some interesting headlines you would expect to see each year; make them punchy and
specific
2011 – 201X
20XX – 20XX
20XX – 20XX
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On Day 1 of The Leadership Experience, we will continue the deep dive on a set of chosen scenarios. As you
continue to prepare for The Leadership Experience, consider the following reflection questions related to this
pre-work exercise:
1.
For the scenario(s) you developed, what assumptions did you have to suspend? How might you as a
leader have to make it OK for others to challenge assumptions and the current “logic” that we follow?
2.
What do we need to do to ensure we stay open to thinking forward even as we focus so heavily on
operations and today’s businesses?
3.
What does this mean for me as an SMSG leader?
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