Designed by
Michael Braito
Marianne Penker
SCENARIO PROCESS
for
KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION
Put here your name,
details of the workshop,
etc.
Outline
1. Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration
2. Thinking of tomorrow – Why and how?
3. Thinking of tomorrow – Scenario Planning
Theoretical introduction
4. The Scenario Process (Step 1 – 5)
Step 1: Defining the project boundaries
Step 2: Identifying the driving forces
Step 3: Analysing the driving forces
Step 4: Scenario generation
Step 5: Scenario transfer
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by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker
participatory
process
2
Thinking of tomorrow for a sustainable
development!
The delegates at the RIO+20 acknowledged the importance of
strengthening transdisciplinary cooperation in order to
enhance sustainable development.
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Why is this so crucial for sustainable
development?
1. Each discipline is important!
2. Concentrating on one subject is
failing in seeing other aspects.
3. Learning from each other …
4. … to recognize the big picture.
Sustainable development
can only be reached if
human beings work
together.
KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION
• Decisions in the field of sustainable development have to be taken
in the context of uncertain and incomplete knowledge.
• A systematic integration of a range of research-informed
judgments, expertise from different disciplines and experiencebased knowledge is often the best way forward.
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Methods of Knowledge Integration
• “In interdisciplinary research and transdisciplinary knowledge
integration, the focus of the dialogue process is on a research
question and the process aims to enable the formation of a
combined judgment between the participants, with that judgment
being informed by the best research evidence” (McDonald et al.
2009).
• Several methods for dialogue/participatory processes exist (see
McDonald et al. 2009), for instance:
–
–
–
–
Citizens’ jury,
Conference,
Delphi technique,
Open space technology,
– Scenario Planning (THINKING OF TOMORROW).
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Thinking of Tomorrow
WHY and HOW!?
The complexity of today and tomorrow
Our world, our socio-economic system is
changing rapidly and unpredictable.
A number of issues follow their own future
path, but
at the same time, they interact not only with
each other but with any number of …
macroeconomic
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regulatory
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The problem of limited points of views
• To analyse complex systems we reduce the
complexity.
• In doing this, we tend to stop gathering
detail and select one path forward that
seems the most likely one.
macroeconomic
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regulatory
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Thinking of tomorrow – Why and How?
“A major focus is on how the future might evolve from today’s pointin-time to the horizon year of the scenario – say 15-20 years hence.
Scenario thinking analyses the relationships between:
•
the critical uncertainties (as they resolve themselves);
•
important predetermined trends (such as demographics), and
•
the behaviour of actors who have a stake in the particular future
(who tend to act to preserve and enhance their own interests)”
(Wright and Cairns 2011, 9).
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Knowledge Integration –
dealing with unknowns/uncertainties
• Scenario planning combines possibilities to
form a manageable set of scenarios.
• It helps “to sketch a broad spectrum of
possible developments options” (Penker and
Wytrzens 2005).
Knowledge Integration by Scenario planning supports to:
• capture the uncertainties faced by the scenario topic,
• highlight the issues that may have a significant impact on the
scenario topic, and
• to study the relationships between these critical issues.
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AIMS of ‘scenario thinking’
• Knowledge Integration (explicit scientific knowledge and implicit local
knowledge)
• Following the approach of ‘intuitive logics’ (Jungermann and Thuring 1987)
See the sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and
plausibility.
• Exploring the interrelationships between multiple factors in terms of
cause/effect and chronology
Realise that the possibilities are not unlimited.
• Not predicting the future, but understanding the present
• Developing an information framework for decision making
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AIM of System Intervention
• Initiate a process of understanding (future is unpredictable and
unknown).
• Highlight and understand possibilities for action (despite partial
uncertainty).
• Enhance openness for new ways instead of moving always on the
worn-out paths.
• Exercise to deal with the unknown, the unforeseeable.
• Identify different interests, assessments, expectations.
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Thinking of Tomorrow
HOW?
Scenario Planning
How to use scenarios
Scenarios can fulfill several and different functions:
• explorative and knowledge function,
• communication function,
• aim building function, and
• decision making and strategy function.
The PROCESS is as important as the OUTCOME!
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The scenario funnel
Scenario thinking gives you the opportunity to set intervention today,
because it shows you what will have a major impact in the future.
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Scenario techniques
Trend scenario
based on driving forces
Systemic formalised
Extrapolation of
business as usual
Trend-ImpactAnalyses
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Creative-narrative
Effect Analysis
Intuitive Logics
Consistency
Analysis
Normativnarrative
Scenarios
Cross-ImpactAnalysis
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The Scenario Process
The process of scenario planning
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The Scenario Process
STEP 1
Defining the project boundaries
Project boundaries of the exemplary
scenario project
• Set the objectives.
• Define boundaries and establish focus.
• The objectives for the scenario planning should include
the following:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Thematic framework,
Time horizon for the scenarios,
Geographical scope of the scenarios,
Stakeholder to be addressed by the project,
Unavoidable constraints on future plans, and
Definition and deadline for deliverables.
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The Scenario Process
STEP 2
Identifying the driving forces
What are ‘driving forces’?
• Driving forces are attributes of a system which are most relevant
at the present and cause changes in the system state over time
(e.g. social, economic, environmental, political, and technological).
• Main key factors facing the research topic
• Driving forces are NOT PROBLEMS
• Changes in society, politics, technology etc.
are often the symptoms of more fundamental
transformations.
• Driving forces are indicating change, but should not indicate
direction or dimension.
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Methods to identify driving forces I
Identification of a MAXIMUM of 10-15 driving forces
Different methods exist:
• Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”)
• Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards
• etc.
Leading question:
Which factors are influencing the present and might have a
significant impact on the development of the scenario objective?
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Methods to identify driving forces II
Systemic picture
(all together or as a “World Café”)
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Methods to identify driving forces III
Brainstorming/Brainwriting
by using cards
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Feedback
Integrate scientific knowledge with participants’
knowledge
• Literature research
• Empirical research
– Field work
– Interviews
– Delphi Method
– etc.
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The Scenario Process
STEP 3
Analysing the driving forces
Analysis of the driving forces and filtering
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Identify the most relevant driving forces
RANKING
What is the magnitude of the impact of these
driving forces on the development of the
future of the system?
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The ‘relevance/uncertainty’ matrix
4 dimension matrix to narrow the list of driving forces to
the most relevant for differentiating scenarios.
We may be highly certain that something will happen
(e.g. climate change) but highly uncertain as to what
impact it may have (increasing storm activity, drought,
flood?
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The Scenario Process
STEP 4
Scenario generation
Scenario Generation I
Factor B
Select the two factors (A and B) that combine the
greatest perceived relevance on the core issue with the
greatest uncertainty as to what their impact will be.
Factor A
4 dimensions matrix
4 scenarios
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Scenario Generation II
Factor B
Scenarios should be:
1. Plausible
2. Distinctive
3. Consistent
4. Relevant
5. Creative
6. Challenging
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Factor B
Scenario 1
Factor A
Factor B
Factor A
Scenario 4
Factor A
(Maack 2001, 73)
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Story telling
• Add narratives to provide ‘rich descriptions’ of four
possible and plausible futures (e.g. “one day of
Mister X in the year 20xx”).
• Think carefully and deeply about sense making,
logic, plausibility and possibility of what you are
writing.
Specifically, consider the logic of what you have written here and
be prepared to revise your ideas.
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Story telling
Scenario 1
Factor B
•
•
•
•
•
•
geographical maps
timelines
story hands
story seeds
storyboards
journeys (A to B;
A to B to A)
• cumulative block
graphs
• emotions graphs
• story mountains
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1. Creative title (highlighting the
central message
2. Brief summation that explains the
title and sums up the elements of
the story
3. Smooth narratives that are easy to
read and understand
• What is Mr. X on the 1st May 2030 doing?
• How does the world look like?
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The Scenario Process
STEP 5
Scenario transfer
Scenario Transfer I
The final stage of the Scenario Process is the dissemination
of the message and its implementation on the ground.
Backcasting
• Focuses on finding options that satisfy long-term targets
(Börjes et. al. 2005)
•
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What activities/measures have to be taken to reach the
preferred scenario?
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Scenario Transfer II
What is the
best strategy
for dealing
with this
situation?
Which scenario
do we prefer?
What are the major
opportunities and
threats in this
scenario?
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What are the
implications of
this world?
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Enjoy your scenario process
References
Bammer, G., 2006. Integration and Implementation Sciences: Building a New Specialisation. In
Perez, P. and Batten, D. (eds.). Complex Science for a Complex World. Australia: ANU E Press,
The Australian National University Australia. 95-107.
Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.H., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G., 2005. Towards a user's guide to
scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm: US AB Royal
Institute of Technology.
Jungermann, H. and Thuring, M., 1987. The use of mental models for generating scenarios. In
Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley.
Maack, J., 2001. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers.
McDonald, D., Bammer, G. and Deane, P., 2009. Research Integration using dialogue methods.
Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia.
Penker, M. and Wytrzens, H.K., 2005. Scenario for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its
landscape impacts. Landscape and Urban Planning. 71. 175-189.
Wright, G. and Cairns, G., 2011. Scenario Thinking: Practical approaches to the future. London,
Palgrave.
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Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
Department of Economics and Social Sciences
BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Feistmantelstr. 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/2797.html?&L=1
Michael Braito
Expertise
• Environmental economics and environmental
policy
• Sustainable development
• Rural development
• Optimisation and valuation of managerial
processes
• Analysis and economic valuation of societal
processes
Marianne Penker
Expertise
• Rural development
• Implementation Research
• Property Rights
• Rural Governance
• Landscape Governance
• Conservation and Environmental Policy