On the Use and Misuse of Scientific Evidence in Making Public Policy Chris Mooney 12:00 pm, Monday, September 19, 2005 Woodrow Wilson School Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy Seminar Series Union of Concerned Scientists Declaration “Although scientific input to the government is rarely the only factor in public policy decisions, this input should always be weighed from an objective and impartial perspective to avoid perilous consequences. Indeed, this principle has long been adhered to by presidents and administrations of both parties in forming and implementing policies. The administration of George W. Bush has, however, disregarded this principle.” -- “Restoring Scientific Integrity in Policymaking,” February 2004 TOLES © 2004 The Washington Post. Reprinted with permission of UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. All rights reserved. How We’ll Proceed…. 1. How should science and politics interact? 2. What counts as political science abuse? 3. Why are such abuses becoming more frequent? 4. How can we know that George W. Bush’s administration has politicized science to an unprecedented extent? 5. What can be done? 1. The President on the Distinction Between Technocracy and Democracy “I am not a geologist, as you know.” -- George W. Bush, Dec. 29, 2004 2. What is Political Science Abuse? Def: “Any attempt to inappropriately undermine, alter, or otherwise interfere with the scientific process, or scientific conclusions, for political or ideological reasons.” (Categories: General, Process, Substantive) General Example: Undermining Science Itself An assault on the very nature of science or the scientific method. Examples: 1. Creationist claim: evolution is “just a theory” (Cobb County, Georgia). 2. “Intelligent design” creationist claim: science, as currently practiced, is equivalent to materialistic philosophy/atheism (Kansas) Process Example: Suppression & Forced-Editing Includes: Quashing scientific reports for political reasons; seeking to edit unpublished reports to make their contents more palatable. Example: Internal Environmental Protection Agency Memo, April 29, 2003 (source: National Wildlife Federation/Revkin & Seelye, “Report by E.P.A. Leaves Out Data on Climate Change,” The New York Times, June 19, 2003.) Substantive Example: Errors and Misrepresentations Includes: Misstatements of fact; errors of omission; misrepresentations or distortions of scientific work (essentially, the spinning of science). Examples: 1. George W. Bush’s erroneous August 9, 2001 claim that “more than 60” embryonic stem cell lines were in existence. 2. Repeated misrepresentations of 2001 National Academy of Sciences Report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. NAS 2001 “Climate Change Science” Report “The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.” “Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents (and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established.” Substantive Example B: Relying on the Outliers Includes: Politicians handpicking experts willing to say what they want to hear, even when the vast majority of scientists believe something else. The “cherry-picking” of expertise. Bottom Line: While dissent has an important place in science, the notion that policymakers should hold up scientific outliers to justify their decisions is preposterous. The best available consensus science should guide policy, not the most convenient science politicians can find in a pinch. Senator James Inhofe (Extremely Reliant on the Outliers) “With all of the hysteria, all of the fear, all of the phony science, could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people? It sure sounds like it.” -- James Inhofe, Senate floor speech, July 28, 2003 The Value of Consensus Science to Policymaking “Scientific knowledge is the intellectual and social consensus of affiliated experts based on the weight of available empirical evidence, and evaluated according to accepted methodologies. If we feel that a policy question deserves to be informed by scientific knowledge, then we have no choice but to ask, what is the consensus of experts on this matter?” -- Naomi Oreskes, “Science and public policy: What’s proof got to do with it,” Environmental Science & Policy 7 [2004], 369-383. Part III: Why is it Getting Worse? Some* Trends Fueling Increased Science Politicization: 1. Growth of think tanks. (Offering alternative expertise.) 2. Trend on the part of industry to target the role of science in the regulatory process, rather than fighting exclusively over regulations (“paralysis by analysis”). 3. Move by religious conservatives to have their own “scientists” on virtually every moral issue of concern to them. (* Not all.) A. Growth of Politicized Think Tanks “Corporate philanthropy should not be, and cannot be, disinterested.” -- Irving Kristol, 1972 Think Tanks, Cont. “At the end of World War II, only a handful of private policy think tanks were at work in Washington; at the end of the Cold War there were over one hundred, the largest ones spending tens of millions of dollars annually on the analysis of policy problems.” -- Bruce Bimber, The Politics of Expertise in Congress, 1996 (American Enterprise Institute founded in 1943; Heritage Foundation founded in 1973.) ExxonMobil 2004 Donations American Enterprise Institute, $ 230,000 American Legislative Exchange Council: $ 222,000 Center for the Defense of Free Enterprise, $ 130,000 Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, $ 125,000 Competitive Enterprise Institute, $ 270,000 Congress of Racial Equality, $ 135,000 Frontiers of Freedom, $ 250,000 George C. Marshall Institute, $ 170,000 Total: $ 1,532,000 (Source: ExxonMobil) B. Growing Fights Over Regulatory Science 1970s: New environmental and public safety regulations and agencies to implement them: EPA, OSHA, etc. 1981: Reagan Executive Order 12291, centralized review of government regulations at Office of Management & Budget (OIRA). 1995: Gingrich Congress seeks “regulatory reform”: Unprecedented strictures on how government agencies do science. (Slogan = “sound science”; likely effect = “paralysis by analysis”). 1998: Shelby Amendment (“get the data”) …… Jim J. Tozzi, former Phillip Morris lobbyist, unofficial creator of the “Data Quality Act.” Most famous quotation: “I don’t want to leave fingerprints.” Remark on getting the DQA through Congress: “Sometimes you get the monkey, and sometimes the monkey gets you.” More Paralysis By Analysis…. 2001: Data Quality Act. 2004: proposed “Endangered Species Act Data Quality Act” 2003-2005: OMB “peer review” superstructure (justified by “Data Quality Act”) Bottom Line: Arguing over science helps special interests slow down the process of regulation. It works like a charm. C. The Religious Right Gets Science “You don’t have to wave your bible to have an effect as a Christian in the public arena. We serve the greatest Scientist. We serve the Author of all Truth. All we’re required to do is proclaim that Truth.” -- W. David Hager, October 29, 2004 speech at Asbury College, Kentucky Anti-Evolutionists Get “Science” 1924: William Jennings Bryan joins the American Association for the Advancement of Science. 1961: Whitcomb and Morris, The Genesis Flood 1974: Henry Morris publishes Scientific Creationism (in biblical and non-biblical versions). 1980: A campaigning Ronald Reagan pronounces “great flaws” in evolutionary theory. …….. Anti-Evolutionists Get *Even More* “Science” 1987: Edwards v. Aguillard, “creation science” loses at Supreme Court. 1990: Discovery Institute founded. 1999: Wedge document (publicly exposed--oops). Today: New wave of evolution fights sweeping across the country. And It’s Not Just Anti-Evolutionists… “Adult” stem cell research versus embryonic. Alleged health “risks” from abortion. Abstinence education “works,” condoms “don’t.” Not enough “data” on how Plan B contraception will be used by young adolescents (down to age 11!). Collapse of Old Paradigm for Science/Religion/Government C. Everett Koop on abortion and women’s health, 1989: “If I had put out the kind of report that was not scientific, that did not recognize the lack of physical evidence of what they wanted to know, it would have been attacked and destroyed by scientists and statisticians.” Part IV: Science and the Bush Administration “I am not a geologist, as you know.” -- President George W. Bush, Dec. 29, 2004 Scientists Concerned From the Start… Early 2001: Climate change (dumping Kyoto, using NAS to review IPCC). Stem cell research (“more than 60” lines). Holes in the “science net”: Surgeon General, FDA Commissioner, and NIH Director positions go unfilled. Early Troubles Over OSTP Dr. John Marburger: * Not confirmed by the Senate until October 23, 2001. * Demoted from rank of “Assistant to the President” before he ever assumed his position (“that title was never offered to me”). 2002-2003: Charges of Advisory Committee Politicization September 2002, Washington Post expose reveals “broad restructuring” of scientific advisory committees within the Bush Department of Health and Human Services so as to align them ideologically with the White House. Subsequent reports/Famous cases: W. David Hager, William Miller. Fun with websites: Changing condom effectiveness information at CDC; breast cancer/abortion information at NCI. “An Epidemic of Politics” “What’s unusual about the current epidemic is not that the Bush administration examines candidates for compatibility with its ‘values.’ It’s how deep the practice cuts; in particular, the way it now invades areas once immune to this kind of manipulation.” -- Donald Kennedy, executive editor-in-chief, Science, January 31, 2003 2002-2004: Reports on Science Politicization Emerge December 2002: “Weird Science,” report on Department of the Interior by Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall. August 2003: “Politics and Science in the Bush Administration,” Rep. Henry Waxman report. February 2004: Union of Concerned Scientists report and statement, “Restoring Scientific Integrity in Policymaking,” signed by 20 Nobel Laureates. (Massive press coverage.) BUT: Reports lacking comparative historical analysis!!!! Were Bush Administration Abuses Unprecedented? Probably so. Based on: Volume of complaints by scientists and distinguished policymakers—including Republicans. Marburger’s inability to rebut virtually any of the charges. Historical analysis: Problem existent before, but never so extensive in previous administrations. Previously discussed trends—all of which merged in the Bush administration. Part IV: What Can Be Done? Lewis Branscomb, “Science, Politics, and U.S. Democracy,” Issues in Science and Technology, Fall 2004. “The integrity of the science advisory process cannot withstand overt actions to censor or suppress unwanted advice, to mischaracterize it, or to construct it by use of political litmus tests in the selection of individuals to serve on committees….If we fail in the attempt to preserve the integrity of science in democratic governance, a strong source of unity in the electorate, based on common interest in the actual performance of government, will be eroded. Policymaking by ideology requires that reality be set aside; it can be maintained only by moving towards ever more authoritarian forms of governance.” Legislative Steps That Must Be Taken… Legal reforms: OTA, OSTP, safeguarding advisory committees, protecting whistleblowers. Roll back “Data Quality,” “peer review” proposal. Prevent passage of “Endangered Species Act Data Quality Act” and other similar legislation. November 2004 Columbia Journalism Review Article on “Balance” in Science Reporting Argues that the journalistic norm of “balance” has no parallel in the scientific world and can lead reporters to distort or misrepresent what's actually known. Suggests science journalists should avoid the trap of “he said/she said/we’re clueless” coverage and actually help their readers evaluate the credibility of different claims. September 2005 Columbia Journalism Review Article on Evolution Coverage Argues that political reporters, TV news, and editorial pages create a false “debate” over the science of evolution in their coverage. Suggests better journalist training so that, again, they can learn to avoid the trap of “he said/she said/we’re clueless” coverage. Deterrence and Future Struggles Scientist and university-based activism. Continue to fight anti-evolutionists and other attempts to distort what children learn. And finally: Get political. For Further Information Chris Mooney is Washington correspondent for Seed magazine. Book website: www.waronscience.com E-mail: moonecc@yahoo.com