CHAPTER 9 DYNAMIC P OWERP OINT™ S LIDES BY S OLINA L INDAHL International Trade CHAPTER OUTLINE Analyzing Trade with Supply and Demand The Costs of Protectionism Arguments against International Trade For applications, click here To Try it! questions To Video 2 Food for Thought…. Some good blogs and other sites to get the juices flowing: 3 Analyzing Trade with Supply and Demand We can use the demand and supply model to determine: The effects of free trade on: Domestic equilibrium price and quantity Imports The effects of trade barriers on: Domestic equilibrium price and quantity Imports BACK TO Analyzing Trade with Supply and Demand Price Domestic supply with free trade: •World price prevails. free trade •Domestic consumption = QD trade •Domestic production = Qfree S • imports = free trade D Q Q free trade S No trade equilibrium P no trade Free trade equilibrium World supply World price Domestic consumption Domestic demand Imports Domestic production free trade S Q no trade Q Q free trade D Quantity of semiconductors BACK TO Analyzing Trade with Supply and Demand Price With Tariff: • World price + tariff prevails. tariff • Domestic consumption= QD • Domestic production = Q tariff S Domestic supply QDtariff Q tariff S • imports = • tariff revenue Equilibrium with tariff pno trade World price + tariff World supply + tariff tariff World Supply World price Domestic consumption Imports w/ free trade Domestic production free trade S Q no trade Q Q tariff S tariff D Q Q free trade D Domestic demand Imports w/tariff Quantity of semiconductors BACK TO Try it! A tariff results in a higher: I. consumer surplus. II. producer surplus. III. government revenue. a) b) c) d) I and II only II and III only I and III only I, II, and III To next Try it! The Costs of Protectionism Protectionism = policy of restraining trade through quotas, tariffs, or other regulations which burden foreign (but not domestic) producers. Tariff = a tax on imports Trade Quota = a restriction on the quantity of goods that can be imported: imports greater than the quota amount are forbidden (or heavily taxed.) 8 BACK TO The Costs of Protectionism A tariff has two effects: 1. ↑ domestic production, ↓ domestic consumption. More of the good is produced by the higher-cost domestic producers. 2. Less is consumed → lower gains from trade. Measuring the losses and wasted resources Can we measure the value of wasted resources? Yes! BACK TO “Unfair Foreign Competition” Who is hurt and who benefits? To pay for the subsidies [on products sold to Americans at a cheaper price] the foreign government must tax it's citizens. They are the ones who pay for the subsidies. U.S. consumers benefit. They get cheap TV sets or automobiles or whatever it is that is subsidized. Should we complain about such a program of reverse foreign aid? Milton Friedman - Free to Choose 10 BACK TO “Unfair Foreign Competition” “We need tariffs against countries that compete unfairly by subsidizing their industries and dumping their products in our market.” Same as the July 2014 Import-Export Bank renewal arguments Who benefits from foreign subsidies? Who is harmed? Another example of concentrated benefits versus dispersed costs 11 BACK TO We’re better off with free trade, so why do we have tariffs? • Trade can be analyzed via public choice theory - a branch of economics that deals with the workings of the political market. • A tariff makes the inhabitants of the country that imposes it worse off. • Politicians who pass the tariff are better off, since it benefits a concentrated interest group at the cost of dispersed interest groups. • More concentrated interest groups are better able to pay politicians to do things for them. Trade policy is optimized, but for the wrong objective. 12 BACK TO The Costs of Protectionism Price per pound (in cents) Domestic demand Domestic supply 20 World supply + tariff Tariff equilibrium U. S. costs Lost gains from trade or deadweight loss Wasted resources World price World supply 9 Free trade equilibrium World costs 20 24 Quantity (in billions of pounds) BACK TO The Costs of Protectionism Price per pound (in cents) Domestic demand Domestic supply 20 World supply + tariff Value of wasted resources = [(.20 – .09) x 20]/2 = $1.1 billion Lost gains from trade = [(.20 - .09) x (24 – 20)]/2 = $.22 billion $1.1 billion World price World supply 9 20 24 Quantity (in billions of pounds) BACK TO The Costs of Protectionism Conclusions: A tariff reduces economic efficiency: Low-cost producers are prevented from selling. Mutually profitable gains from trade are prevented by law. U.S. consumers pay more, and workers in other countries (many of whom are poor) lose income. BACK TO Try it! A $1 tariff results in: a) An increase in imports of 80 million units. b) A decrease in imports of 80 million units. c) An increase in imports of 100 million units. d) A decrease in imports of 100 million units. To next Try it! The Costs of Protectionism One final cost: lobbying The loss to domestic consumers is greater than the gains to domestic producers. Why does congress pass tariffs? Small number of producers → Benefit per producer is high. Large number of consumers → Loss per consumer is low. BACK TO Arguments Against International Trade Most Common Arguments 1. Trade reduces the number of jobs in the U.S. 2. It’s wrong to trade with countries that use child labor. 3. We need to keep some industries for reasons of national security. 4. We need to keep some “key” industries because of beneficial spillovers onto other sectors. 5. We can increase U.S. well-being with strategic trade protectionism. BACK TO Try it! Which argument against trade is the strongest in your opinion? a) Trade reduces the number of jobs in the U.S. b) It’s wrong to trade with countries that use child labor. c) We need to keep some industries for reasons of national security. d) We need to keep some “key” industries because of beneficial spillovers onto other sectors. e) We can increase U.S. well-being with strategic trade protectionism. BACK TO Rebuttals Trade and Jobs Tariffs raise the price of protected goods. Consumers have less money to spend on other goods. Jobs are lost in other industries—these lost jobs are hard to see. Trade creates jobs The U.S. dollars we spend on other country’s good are often used to buy our goods. Jobs are created in U.S. exporting industries. 20 BACK TO Rebuttals Child Labor Restricting imports made by child labor may do more harm than good. Children work out of necessity—what else will they do? Often the alternative is worse. Prostitution Scrounging in refuse dumps Child labor is a poverty problem, not a trade problem. 21 BACK TO Rebuttals Child Labor Restricting imports made by child labor may do more harm than good. Children work out of necessity—what else will they do? Often the alternative is worse. Prostitution Scrounging in refuse dumps Child labor is a poverty problem, not a trade problem. 22 BACK TO Poverty and Child Labor Source: Edmonds, E. and N. Pavcnik, 2005. “Child Labor in the global economy” Journal of Economic Perspectives BACK TO Rebuttals Trade and National Security True: Some industries probably should be iI think I am vital protected to protect National Security. to your security. No kidding. BUT: This is subject to great abuse—almost every industry can make this argument for protection. Examples: Vaccine production?—probably a good idea. Angora Goat fleece?--are you kidding? No. This is protected. BACK TO Rebuttals Key Industries Some industries are characterized by large spillovers to other industries (and should be encouraged). Example: Computer chips have spillover benefits that go beyond the computer chip industry BUT: Subsidy (to chip makers) is a better option than a tariff. Tariff would be second-best. Hard to determine which industries are key. BACK TO Rebuttals Strategic Trade Protectionism = Government helps domestic firms act like a cartel when they sell to international buyers. May be able to grab up a larger share of the gains from trade than with free trade. This is done by forcing other countries to pay MORE for your goods, usually with an export tax. Will the exporting country see more revenue? Success depends on Price Elasticity of Demand. OPEC succeeds because oil has few substitutes. If the U.S. taxes car exports, it may just encourage foreigners to switch to a substitute good (Japanese cars, for instance). BACK TO At TEDIndia, TED favorite Hans Rosling gives another lively and humorous talk- and graphs global economic growth since 1858. He also predicts the exact date that India and China will outstrip the US. (15:50 minutes) BACK TO SEE THE INVISIBLE HAND Globalization is not new Phoenicians: 1550 B.C. Traders Roman Empire: 753 B.C. Specialization and Trade Collapse of trade networks? 476 A.D. “Dark Ages” Revitalized trade routes? 1300s “European Renaissance” Periods of increased trade and the spread of ideas have been among the best for human progress. 28 BACK TO