Determinants Of Labour Market Conditions
for Canadian Teachers
Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC)
Pan-Canadian Education Research Agenda (PCERA)
Quebec, City
May 22-23, 2001
Page 1
Outline of Presentation
• The Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS):
Description, Mandate and Activities
• A Profile of the Teaching Occupations
• Key Economic Drivers and Their Implications for Labour
Market Conditions of the Teaching Profession
• Summary of Current and Future Labour Market Issues
2
Page 2
What is the Canadian Occupational
Projection System (COPS)?
• Formed in 1982 following the key recommendation of the
Dodge Task Force on Labour Market Development.
• Federal/Provincial/Territorial Partnership working together to
produce Labour Market Information.
• Family of national and provincial models, monitoring and
research activities.
3
Page 3
COPS Mandate
• Produce and disseminate timely, reliable, consistent and relevant
current and forward-looking labour market information and
research.
• Goal is to improve the transparency of the labour market
(transitions) and thus improve the decision making process.
– Transitions from school to work
– Transitions from non-employed to employed
– Transitions from job (career) to job (career)
4
Page 4
COPS Products and Activities
• Monitoring:
– Provincial Monthly Labour Market Brief
– Quarterly Labour Market Review
• Forecasting:
– Industry/Occupational Pressures
• Research and Analysis:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Impact of Ageing
Determinants of Retirement
Determinants to Education
Economic Returns to Education
Job Quality
Occupational Monographs
Impact of Technology on the Labour Market
Model Development
5
Page 5
COPS Products and Activities
(continued)
• Labour Market Information:
– Job Futures
– Youth Outlook
• Partnerships and Consultations:
– F/P/T COPS Consultation Conferences
– Regional COPS Workshops
– F/P/T FLMM Participation
6
Page 6
2000 Teacher Profile
All
All
University College
Elem/Sec.
Occupations Teachers Teachers Teachers Teachers
Employment
14909.7
559.0
83.7
83.4
391.9
46
63.1
41.3
51.4
70.1
% Part-time
18.1
20.9
27
22
19.4
% Self-employed
16.2
1.4
0.6
6.4
0.1
% Age 15-24
15.4
5.2
8.7
4.6
4.7
% Age 25-54
74.2
84.3
68.1
85
87.1
% Age 55+
10.4
10.5
23.2
10.4
8.2
6.8
2.9
4.4
3.6
2.5
% Female
Unemployment Rate
Hourly Earnings
$16.64
$24.32
$29.24
$22.46
$23.66
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
7
Page 7
Teaching Employment Levels
600
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
500
400
1990
2000
300
200
100
0
All Tchrs.
Univ. Tchrs.
Coll. Tchrs. El/Sec. Tchrs.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000
8
Page 8
Provincial Teacher Concentrations
25
20
15
%
10
Pop 5-29/Tchr.
BC
Alta
Sask
Man
Ont
Que
NB
NS
PEI
Nfld
0
Can
5
Source: 1996 Census
9
Page 9
The Teaching Profession Has a
Relatively High Proportion of Women
80
70
60
50
%
40
1990
2000
30
20
10
0
All Occs.
All
Tchrs.
Univ.
Tchrs.
Coll.
Tchrs.
El/Sec.
Tchrs.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
10
Page 10
Women in Teaching by Province
64
63
62
61
% 60
59
58
57
56
55
54
Can Nfld PEI NS NB Que Ont Man Sask Alta BC
Source: 1996 Census of Canada
11
Page 11
An Above Average Proportion of
University Teachers Work Part-Time
%
30
25
20
15
1990
2000
10
5
0
All Occs.
All
Tchrs.
Univ.
Tchrs.
Coll.
Tchrs.
El/Sec.
Tchrs.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000
12
Page 12
Part-Time Teaching Employment by
Province
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Can Nfld PEI NS NB Que Ont Man Sak Alta BC
Source: 1996 Census of Canada
13
Page 13
On Average, Teachers are Older...
%
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Average Age
38.2
All
Occs.
41.8
All
Tchrs.
42
Age 15-24
Age 25-54
Age 55+
40
Univ
Tchrs.
Coll.
Tchrs.
El/Sec.
Tchrs.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000
14
Page 14
…and Retire Earlier
66
64
62
All Occs.
Educ. Etc.
60
58
56
54
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
15
Page 15
Provincial Teaching Employment by Age
BC
Pra
Ont
Que
Atlantic
Age 15-24
Age 55+
Can
%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000
16
Page 16
Key Drivers of Labour Market
Conditions for Teaching Occupations
• Demand
– slower population growth - downward pressures on
elementary secondary and upward pressure on postsecondary.
– continued movement towards a knowledge based economy
(KBE), upward pressures on post-secondary.
– ageing workforce, upward pressures mainly at postsecondary level.
– Specific provincial/field of study pressures (eg. Ontario’s
double cohort or shortage of computer science professors).
17
Page 17
Key Drivers of Labour Market
Conditions for Teaching Occupations
(Continued)
• Supply
– school leavers
– immigration
• Other Issues
– difficulty in attracting and retaining workers
– working conditions
– technology (eg. e-learning)
18
Page 18
As a result of lower fertility rate
population growth will slow
Average Annual Rate of Growth
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
2030-34
2020-24
2010-14
2000-04
1990-94
1980-84
1970-74
1960-64
0
1950-54
0.5
1940-44
%
Source: Statistics Canada, HRDC ARB/PMEDS Projection
19
Page 19
Relative Decline of Youth and Increase of
Those Age 65+
30
%
25
20
Y1965
Y2000
Y2035
15
10
5
0
Age 0-4
Age 5-13
Age 14-18
Age 19-29
Age 30-44 Age 45-64
Age 65+
Source: Statistics Canada, HRDC, ARB/PMEDS Projection
20
Page 20
Demographic Trends Will Exert Downward
Pressure on the Employment of
Elementary/Secondary Teachers
Historical and projected number of elementary / secondary teachers and students
400
5.8
350
5.6
300
5.4
Number of teachers that would
be required to maintain the
students/ teachers ration at its
1984-2000 average
250
200
5.2
Millions
Thousands
Elementary and Secondary Teachers (left axis)
5.0
Elementary and Secondary Students (right axis)
150
4.8
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario
21
Page 21
Movement Towards Knowledge
Occupations Will Continue
(Average Annual Growth Rates)
1988-2000
Total
Services
Management
Source: COPS, 2001
Knowledge
Goods
2001-2005
Data
%
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
22
Page 22
The population is becoming more educated
%
55
Share of working-age population with a post-secondary diploma
Historical
Projected
50
45
40
35
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Projections by Applied Research Branch
23
Page 23
The number of trade and college teachers is projected
to continue to increase at a similar pace to that
observed in recent years.
Historical and projected number of college / trade teachers and students
600
100
550
80
College and Trade
Teachers (left axis)
500
450
70
60
College and Trade
Students (right axis)
Number of teachers that would
be required to maintain the
students/ teachers ration at its
1984-2000 average
Thousands
Thousands
90
400
350
50
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario
24
Page 24
The number of university teachers is projected to
increase after declining sharply in the late 1990s.
Historical and projected number of university teachers and students
600
60
55
550
50
500
45
40
University Teachers
(left axis)
Number of teachers that would
be required to maintain the
students/ teachers ration at its
1984-2000 average
450
Thousands
Thousands
University Students (right axis)
400
350
35
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario
25
Page 25
Average Annual New Job Creation
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
1994-99
2000-05
All Tchrs
Univ
Coll
Elem/Sec
Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000
26
Page 26
Average Annual Retirements
25000
20000
15000
1994-99
2000-05
10000
5000
0
All Tchrs.
Univ.
Coll.
Elem/Sec.
Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000
27
Page 27
Average Annual Supply of School
Leavers to the Profession
30000
25000
20000
1994-99
2000-05
15000
10000
5000
0
All Tchrs
Univ
Coll
Elem/Sec
Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000
28
Page 28
Average Annual Supply of Recent
Immigrants to the Profession
6000
5000
4000
1994-99
2000-05
3000
2000
1000
0
All Tchrs
Univ
Coll
Elem/Sec
Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000
29
Page 29
Specific Issues
• In Ontario, in September 2003, there will be a double set of high
school graduates seeking seats in Ontario’s post-secondary
institutions. This will put upward pressure on the demand for
post-secondary teachers.
• Further, the May 2001 Ontario budget has proposed establishing
a new university which will also put upward pressure on the
demand for post-secondary teachers.
• Labour market conditions for specific field of study postsecondary teachers varies by discipline. For example,
competition from the private sector is drawing current and
potential teachers in the sciences, business and computer science
from the education system.
30
Page 30
Summary of Current and Future
Pressures
• Demographic
– population age 5 to 18 is expected to grow marginally
over the projection period which will dampen demand for
elementary secondary school teachers. Alternatively,
population age 19 to 29 is expected to grow which should
stimulate the demand for post-secondary school teachers.
• Retirements
– The education sector is older than most other occupations
which coupled, with a lower retirement age, results in a
large exodus from the profession.
31
Page 31
Summary of Current and Future
Pressures (continued)
• Movement towards a KBE
– strongest employment growth over the projection period is
anticipated in occupations generally requiring higher levels
of education. This movement is expected to further increase
the demand for post-secondary school teachers.
• Limits to Supply Growth
– difficulty in attracting and retaining teachers
– competition from private sector
32
Page 32
Summary of Current and Future
Pressures (continued)
• Other Factors Influencing Labour Market Conditions
– working conditions are not seen as overly attractive although
benefits and hours worked are felt to be a bonus
– technology
– distance learning
– emigration as a result of the global market place
– increased immigration increases the demand for ESL
teachers
33
Page 33