Ben Delaney's invited talk

Computer Graphics in the 21st Century:

The Virtualization of Everything

WSCG 2000

, Plzen , Czech Republic

Presented by

Ben Delaney

President,

CyberEdge Information

Services, Inc.

Sausalito — New York www.cyberedge.com

© 2000 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

WSCG 2000, Plzen, Czech Republic — 1 www.cyberedge.com

Computer Graphics Scientists get no respect

•

Spending hours in the lab

•

Our contributions are usually made in the background, unacknowledged

•

Despite making incredibly important discoveries


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You may not realize that the

CG community has changed the world

Providing one of the most important concepts of the 21st century!


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VIRTUAL


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Ananova, the world's first virtual newscaster


Virtually Everything is Virtual Today

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Reality

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Friends

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Doctors

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Pets

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Prototypes

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Politicians

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Places

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Corporations

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Shopping

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Sex

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Meetings

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Organs

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Money

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Travel


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The value of “Virtual” is already huge

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Year 2000 value of Visual

Simulation and VR more than

US

$20 billion

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More than 9,000 people involved worldwide (1998)

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>35% annual growth rate


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Published June 1999, CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.


Why is this trend important?

Where is it going?

How will it affect us?

What does it matter?

Those are the topics of this talk


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A Brief History of Virtual

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1941: Link Flight

Simulator

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1965: Sutherland’s

Virtual Window


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Some Virtual Milestones

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1988: SIMNET links 280 workstations

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1989: VPL Research

Founded

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1991: Virtuality Game

System


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More Virtual Milestones

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1996: Visible

Human (male)

Completed

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1999: SONY releases AIBO, sells out all stock


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And More Virtual

Milestones

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1999: Honda announces anthropomorphic robot

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1999: 400 People attend Avatars99


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What does the future have in store?


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3 key technologies will reach

“Event Horizons” circa 2035

Computers/Communication

Biotechnology/Medicine

Nanotechnology


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Computing/Communication

Moore’s Law continues to hold true – chip densities double every

18 months


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By 2045 chips as complex as the human mind are dirt cheap

•

Complexity brings increased speed and power, reduced energy consumption and cost

Ch ip Complex it y V s. Ch ip Cost


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Computers become smaller as they become more powerful

Today’s desk-side box will fit in your pocket, and that PDA-like system will have supercomputer capabilities.


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More computers + more power = more powerful communications

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Increasing calculation power

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Wide and local-area networks connecting everybody and everything

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Most people use their computers as communication devices, listening to music, corresponding via email, shopping on the

Internet, getting the news


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Image courtesy: wap@gelon.net, gelon.net © 2000 - Oslo, Norway


Ubiquitous computing

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The power of embedded computers, where the majority of processors are used, will continue to increase geometrically

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More communication will take place between computers than between people


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We will soon live within an allseeing, all-hearing network

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Enveloping all but the most remote parts of the planet.

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Kitchen appliances, prosthetic devices, dishes, cars, books, toys, clothes – virtually every object with which we interact – will contain embedded intelligence, and communication abilities.

Thalia home appliances by Sunbeam - Summer 2000


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Simple chips, widely connected, creating highly complex systems


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The Uber-net of artificial intelligences will create a global “mind”

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By around 2030, computers may become conscious, self aware, and aware of us.

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When that happens, the relationship between human being, and their inorganic progeny will change forever.


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Biotechnology

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Parallel to the advances in computing will be huge strides in the understanding of organic systems

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As we decipher the human and other genomes we will develop insights into how life itself works


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The obvious goal of biotech and medical research – eliminating death

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The question is: how do we accomplish that goal?

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We will unlock the secrets of aging, cancer development, regeneration, cloning, genetic manipulation, immunity, learning, and much more


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Manipulation of basic organic functions

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Repair and replacement of genes

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Artificial enzymes and hormones

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Stimulation and retardation of growth

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“Designer” children

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Cloning of animals and people

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Creation of imaginary creatures


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The human lifespan will grow substantially longer

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We will conquer diseases, manipulate genes, rebuild damaged immune systems, and regenerate organs and limbs

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Doubled in the 20th century, the human lifespan will quickly reach 100 years, then more

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The concept of “natural death” will become quaint and archaic


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Interfaces between silicon and carbon-based systems will soon be common

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These systems will first be used for:

– Control of muscles or other organs

– Connecting prosthetic limbs to the nervous system

– Restoring sight and hearing

– Monitoring and reporting on biological activity


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The integration of mechanical and biological systems will accelerate

Images courtesy Dobelle Institute

We have seen recently demonstrations of artificial eyes


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Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is the science and industry of building extremely small machines

" Ultimately - in the great future - we can arrange the atoms the way we want; the very atoms, all the way down! What would happen if we could arrange the atoms one by one the way we want them."

Richard P. Feynman, 1959


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Devices the size of molecules

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Still in the laboratory-demonstration phase of development

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Today they are painstakingly constructed atom by atom

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So far, nanomachines have not done any useful work.

Courtesy IMM and Xerox


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Nanomachines will be capable of doing amazing jobs

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Ideas for how to apply nanotechnology are far-ranging, and many will prove to be dead ends

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All require deployment of billions (at least) of individual units


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Materials made of nanomachines will have startling characteristics

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A few trillion nanomachines might be programmed to form an entire building

– Such a building could be extremely strong

• The components could be flexible in an earthquake, or streamlined in high winds

– Windows and walls could be moved at will

– The same machines could make the furniture and appliances


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Building with nanomachines

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The nano-architect would:

– draw up a design

– order a number of kilograms of nano-machines to be

– delivered at the building site, the preprogrammed nanomachines create the building

•

The building would seem to grow, like a plant, and infinite variations would be possible with almost no additional cost.


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NASA is investigating nanotechnology as a tool to be used in space exploration

1: Sending a few kilos of self-replicating, general purpose nanomachines to the moon

2: They build more of themselves

3: Mine materials and construct a lunar base

4: Which humans to occupy when completed.


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Medicine also may benefit from nanotechnology

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Miniature tools may be programmed to do micro surgery from the inside out

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Angioplasty is one procedure that may be an appropriate application

– Doctors may inject a few thousand nanomachines

– Automatic search for arterial restrictions

– Remove the plaque, perhaps converting it to a harmless or even beneficial substance


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Just like the

Fantastic Voyage

(but without the tiny crew)


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All roads lead to…

Fusion


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Fusion occurs around 2035-2050

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Computer systems vastly more powerful than individual human minds, ubiquitous, and completely interconnected

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Most work done by robots

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Most human activities will be computer mediated.


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Everything will have a virtual component www.ananova.com

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Virtual travel

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Virtual companions

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Virtual amusement parks

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Ubiquitous computing

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Unlimited communications

Virtual-ness will shape the world


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Machines capable of performing nearly any task that people do now will take over most “work”

This will create massive social disruption


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Technology will spawn difficult social questions

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What do people do when they have no jobs?

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What will people think about when machines think faster, and can make more connections?

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How do you pass the time when you might live forever?


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What unique quality of being human distinguishes us from the machines we create?

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Creativity?

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Humor?

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Hatred?

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Love?

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Curiosity?

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???


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The lines demarcating human and machine will become fuzzy

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People will be part computer

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Computers, using organic materials to become even faster, and more animal-like, will be nearly human

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We will have the ability to add capabilities to human beings, who are nearly immortal

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Devices and materials that would seem magical today, will be common


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Implanted systems with external connections will:

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Simulate any sensory perception

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Accept information in real time from massive data banks

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Eliminate phones, monitors, keyboards, mice, and speakers

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Provide abilities akin to telepathy

We will be one with our computers


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What if machines see people as threatening?

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People are irrational and unpredictable

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Rationally, the machines may find ways to limit their exposure

How will we keep up?


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The solution may be to take evolution in hand

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We will have the skills and knowledge to actually direct our evolution

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Blending biological and mechanical components

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Manipulating genes

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Augmenting our human abilities.


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By the end of the 21st century we will have redefined

“being human”

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Telepathic

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Super-human intelligence

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Flawless memory

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Seldom ill and able to recover from nearly any injury

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Never aging

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Closely linked in a solar systemwide network


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We will go beyond Darwin, towards the destination of the species

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A human/machine, carbo/silico, organic/inorganic hybrid

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Actively planning and creating its own future

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Making Darwinian evolution history

University of

Toronto

Photoborgs,

Sept. 1999


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What does all of this have to do with you, a CG specialist?

Quite a bit


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Computer Graphics inspire and enable

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Remember that important concept, Virtual ?

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All sciences rely on CG to understand and communicate

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Advances in CG facilitate other sciences’ advancement


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For years, science has been struggling to understand the


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Computer Graphics has unlocked the door


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CG is a key to understanding and controlling the science of the 21 st century

Your work will change the world

...forever.

Are you ready to help shape human destiny?


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Thank You

I welcome your questions and comments www.cyberedge.com

ben@cyberedge.com

+1 415 331-3343

Thanks to Vaclav Skala, University of West Bohemia


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Ben Delaney's invited talk

VIRTUAL

Why is this trend important?

A Brief History of Virtual

Some Virtual Milestones

More Virtual Milestones

And More Virtual

Milestones

Computing/Communication

Biotechnology

Nanotechnology

Fantastic Voyage

All roads lead to…

Fusion

Quite a bit

Your work will change the world

...forever.

Are you ready to help shape human destiny?

Related documents

Products

Support

Ben Delaney's invited talk

VIRTUAL

Why is this trend important?

A Brief History of Virtual

Some Virtual Milestones

More Virtual Milestones

And More Virtual

Milestones

Computing/Communication

Biotechnology

Nanotechnology

Fantastic Voyage

All roads lead to…

Fusion

Quite a bit

Your work will change the world

...forever.

Are you ready to help shape human destiny?

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