Land Use/Cover Change Effects on Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks Josep Canadell CSIRO, Canberra, Australia [pep.canadell@csiro.au] Outline • APN project and GCTE/GCP • Carbon Emissions • Indonesia • • • • China Fire emissions Erosion and Riverine transport Future emissions • Carbon Sinks • Sink Mechanisms • Forest sinks in Japan APN Project: “Land Use Change and the Carbon Cycle in Asia [APN2000-02]” Workshop: Kobe, January 2001 Commissioned Studies: Land Use Change and Carbon Cycle in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of East and Central Asia. Chuluun. Carbon Budgets of Forest Ecosystems in Southeast Asia Following Disturbance and Restoration. Lasco. Support the development of two Research Proposals for GEF-IPCC: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watershed areas and communities in Southeast Asia. Lasco. Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia. Chuluun. APN-GCTE Special Journal Edition: Land Use/Cover Change Effects on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in the Asian Pacific Region “Science in China, Life Sciences – Series C Editors: Josep Canadell, Guangsheng Zhou, Ian Noble Carbon Emissions Global Emissions from Land Use Change Historically Total emissions of C [deforestation and fossil-fuel burning] 450 PgC [180-200 PgC from land use change] + 90 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere ppm due to changes in land use] 1 Pg C = [401,000,000,000,000,000 gC From 1850 to 1990 (a billion tones) 124 Pg emitted due to land use change 90% due to deforestation 60% in tropical areas %40 in temperate areas [20% descrease Forest Area] Houghton et al. 1999, Houghton 1999, Defries et al. 1999, IPCC-TAR 2001 6,3 Fossil Fuel Net Annual Flux of Carbon from Changes in Land Use 1.4 1.2 Tropical Asia 1.0 Latin America 0.8 0.6 Africa 0.4 0.2 North America China 0.0 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Houghton 1999 Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue, 2002 2 Tropical Asia Annual C Emissions Tropical Asia and China [1850-2000] 1.8 Fossil fuels Land-use change Land-use change & fossil fuels 1.6 1.4 1.2 -1 Annual Emissions of Carbon (Pg C yr ) 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 1950 1970 1990 2 China 1.8 Fossil fuels Land-use change Land-use change & fossil fuels 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue Annual rat r -1) -100 -150 Annual Flux of Carbon in Tropical Asia and China -4 2.00 1200 1000 1.00 800 0.00 600 1850 -250 120 Degradation of forest Croplands Plantations Forest Tropical Asia Industrial harvest Fuelwood harvest Croplands Shifting Cultivation Plantations Industrial harvest Fuelwood harvest 1870 1890 1910 70 20 1930 1950 1970 1990 400 -1.00 200 -30 -2.000 1850 -200 -80 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 Annual harvest (Tg C yr -1) Annual flux of carbon (Tg Cchange yr-1) (10 6 ha yr-1) Annual rates of land-use 3.00 -6 -200 China [1850-2000] 1990 -3.00 -400 -130 China 350 Annual flux of carbon (Tg C yr-1) 300 250 200 Degradation Croplands Industrial harvest Fuelwood harvest Plantations 150 100 50 0 1850 -50 -100 -150 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Houghton 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue Land cover C density % of Natural Forest* Oil-palm (10yrs) Oil-palm (10 yrs) Oil-palm (14 yrs) Oil-palm (19 yrs) Coffee Natural forest 62 31 101 96 18 325 19 10 31 30 6 - Aboveground biomass [30] Mature agroforest (rubber jungle) 5-yr old rubber Oil palm plantation Coffee mixed garden Undisturbed rainforest 104 27 Aboveground and below ground [18] 15.6 62.4 18 390 4 16 5 - Rubber agroforests Rubber agroforests with selected planting material Rubber monoculture Oil palm monoculture Natural forest 116 103 46 41 Aboveground biomass and upper 30cm of soil [17] 97 91 254 38 36 - Rubber jungle 35.5 14* Aboveground biomass [32] Home gardens 35-40 20* Tree biomass [30] 40.3 16* Aboveground biomass and necromass [34] Cinnamon 39 15* Aboveground biomass [31] Cinnamon 44 17* Aboveground biomass [31] Oil palm (30 yrs) Carbon Pools Measured Source of data C Density of various land covers in Indonesia Lasco 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue and Commissioned Study 2001 Forest Fires and Carbon Emissions CO over Western Pacific at 10 Km [1993-2001] (a) Carbon monoxide (CO) 100ppb Jambi Province, Sumatra Frequency of Hot Spots Relative CO mixing ratio (ppb) 30N-25N 25N-20N 20N-15N 15N-10N 10N-5N 5N-EQ EQ-5S 5S-10S 10S-15S 15S-20S 20S-25S 25S-30S 3 2 (b) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) SOI 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1993 Murdiyarso 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Matsueda 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue River Transport of Carbon in the Godavari Basin, India 400 1000 Flux (x109 g C yr-1) 200 75 50 100 10 25 1 0 ate per Tem Tro l pica Fig. 2 d iari Sem Tot al Concentration (mg C l-1) a Taig Sarin 2002 APN-GCTE Issue TOC (1012 g C yr-1) 300 C Fluxes and Concentrations In the Godavari Basin, India Global River Transport of C 60% DIC POC DOC 10 1 0.1 ga na ga ita ha at i ari Pur engan Ward ingan Pranh Indrav Sab a P W 0.24 Pg yr-1 Tributaries ) ) (13 al (7) y(20 ded cheri undr n a N Man jahm Ra Main stream Land Covers and aCO2 in 2050 using IPCC-SRES Agricultural Land Forest Area 7000 6000 Total forest area (Mha) 5000 B1 4000 A2 A1b A1b_fastmigration 3000 A1b_nonegfb 2000 1000 0 Year 35 CO2 Emissions [714 ppm – 1009 ppm] Total CO2 emissions (Pg C/yr) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Scenarios: ‘material consumption’ (A); ‘sustainability and equity’ (B) 'globalisation’ (1) ‘regionalisation’ (2) Year Leemans 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue Carbon Sinks % Difference in Net Primary Production [1870-1990] [Existing - undisturbed land cover] NPP loss NPP gain DeFries et al. 1989 Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s] Pg C/yr - 0.8 + 0.6 - 1.7 + 0.3 + 0.7 IPCC 2001 Schimel 2001 Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s] Pg C/yr - 0.8 - 0.6 - 1.7 - 0.3 - 0.7 IPCC 2001 Schimel 2001 Current Terrestrial Sinks Potential Driving Mechanisms • • • • CO2 fertilization Nitrogen fertilization Land Use/Cover Climate change Regrowth of previously harvested forests Change – Reforestation / Afforestation • Regrowth of previously disturbed forests – Fire, wind, insects • • • • • Fire suppression Decreased deforestation Improved agriculture Sediment burial Future: Terrestrial Carbon Management (e.g., Kyoto) Canadell 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue Carbon Stocks in Live Forest Vegetation [1950-1995] Live Vegetation (Pg C) 30 Asian Russia 25 20 15 Canada Coterminous US 10 Forest Expansion • Cropland abandonment • Declining logging • Reforestation Euro Russia 5 0 Europe 1950 1960 China 1970 1980 1990 2000 Goodale et al 2002 Changes in Forest Carbon in China [1949-1998] Between 1940’s and 70’s, C storage declined by 0.68 Pg C due to forest exploitation policies From late 1970’s to present, C storage has increased by 0.4 Pg C due to policies of protection and timber production [+ 0.021 Pg C/yr] Fang et al. 2001 0.38 Pg C comes from planted forests Land Use Change and C loss in NE China [1992-2000] 1992 1996 2000 50 25 0 1992 1996 City, resident and construction land Water Grassland -150 Others woodland -125 Scrubs and dwarf woodland -100 Forest -75 Dryland -50 Paddy land -25 Decrease forest area: 2.76104km2 Increase urban area: 2.32104km2 Potential max. loss of 273.2 Tg C 2000 Vegetation Soil -175 Wang 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue Net C Gain from Managed Forests in Japan [2000-2015] 70-yr Rotation Sink: 16 MtC/yr 4% FF emissions Alexandrove & Yamagata 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid lands of east and central Asia - Chuluun Changes in annual fluxes of CO2 in South Korea from 1990 to 1997: contributions of energy consumption, land-use change, and forest regrowth – Dowon Carbon Emissions and Sinks from and into Agro-Ecosystems– Lind Erda Carbon balance along Northeast China Transect (NECT-IGBP Transect). Guangsheng Zhou Carbon stock assessment for a forest-to-coffee conversion landscape in Sumber-Jaya (Lampung, Indonesia): from allometric equations to land use change analysis. Meine van Noordwijk. Hidden Deforestation: Carbon Implications Forest Impoverishment: Landsat TM image, Paragom.,1991, classified as forest and non-forest [Brazilian Government reporting -methodology] Surface–fires 62% Forest (could be responsible for doubling C emissions during El Nino years) Same image, - Logging classified after ranch owners interviews: (4-7% ofthe thatabove of forest only 1/10 of forestconversion) was classified as undisturbed forest by human practices – 6.2% Forest Nepstad et al. 1999 Soil Carbon Responses to various Land Use Changes Global - Meta-analyses of 71 studies Guo and Gifford 2002 GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org] Contemporary and Future Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks Global Change Effect s on Vegetation and Disturbance Regimes Global Change, Agroecological Processes and Production Systems Changing Biodiversity and its Consequences on Ecosystem Functioning