Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
Center for Climatic Research
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Wisconsin - Madison
The Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts
U.W. Program on Climate Change
October 20, 2009
Daniel J. Vimont
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
Center for Climatic Research
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Wisconsin - Madison
The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
Change Impacts
Daniel J. Vimont
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Thanks to:
Steve Vavrus, David Lorenz, Michael Notaro (CCR)
Chris Kucharik (SAGE)
Jack Williams (UW Geography)
Wisconsin State Climatology Office
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)
Wisconsin Focus on Energy Program
Outline
• Introduction
A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (or WICCI)
• WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a boundary organization
• Downscaling Methodology and Results
Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
• Conclusions
Outline
• Introduction
A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (or WICCI)
• WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a boundary organization
• Downscaling Methodology and Results
Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
• Conclusions
Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts
WICCI:
Partnership between the UW Nelson
Institute for Environmental Studies, the
Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups
Goal:
Assess and anticipate climate change
impacts on specific Wisconsin natural
resources, ecosystems and regions;
evaluate potential effects on industry,
agriculture, tourism, and other human
activities; and develop and
recommend adaptation strategies…
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu
Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts
History:
• June, 2007: Initial meeting between
DNR and UW. Outlined idea.
• Summer, 2007: Organizational
structure outlined
• Fall 2007 – Present: Science Council
formed and operational
• Fall 2007: First working group(s)
formed. Climate Working Group
• Spring / Summer, 2008: First major
funding: FOE downscaling (~$183K)
• Jan 12, 2009: First WG meeting
(>100 participants)
• Feb 2, 2009: Advisory Council formed
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu
Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts
History:
• Spring, 2009: “Bracing for Impact”
series of lectures for public and WPT
• August, 2009: Submitted proposal for
Great Lakes RISA
• Sept. 2, 2009: Brief the Secretary of
the DNR, suggested coordination with
the Governor’s staff.
• Sept. 14, 2009: Second Advisory
Council Meeting (downscaling results
released)
• Sept. 15, 2009: Public (media)
release of downscaling results
• Sept. 21, 2009: Second working
group meeting (~150 participants)
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu • Fall, 2010: First Assessment Report
Outline
• Introduction
A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (or WICCI)
• WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a boundary organization
• Downscaling Methodology and Results
Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
• Conclusions
WICCI Organizational Structure
Needs in Climate Impact Assessment
• Broad expertise across disciplines
• Stakeholder engagement
• Science and policy representation and
expertise
• Legitimacy within and across scientific and
policy communities
• Public engagement and support
WICCI Organizational Structure
Boundary Objects:
“Objects” that sit between social worlds, like science
and nonscience…. they can be used by individuals
within each for specific purposes without losing their
own identity
(from Guston, 2001)
WICCI Organizational Structure
Boundary Organizations:
• Provide the opportunity and sometimes the
incentives for the creation and use of boundary
objects
• They involve the participation of actors from both
sides of the boundary, as well as professionals who
serve a mediating role
• Exist at the frontier of the two relatively different
social worlds of politics and science, but they have
distinct lines of accountability to each
(from Guston, 2001)
WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a Boundary Organization
Impact
Systems
Physical
Climate
WICCI
Policy
WICCI Organizational Structure
Science Council: ~20 members representing a variety of
expertise in Wisconsin. Primary function is to organize and
coordinate Working Groups that have the scientific expertise to
assess climate change impacts pertinent to specific issues or
areas of concern.
WICCI Organizational Structure
Advisory Committee: Representatives of business interests,
non-governmental organizations, municipalities, agencies, state
and local government, and other stakeholders. Advises WICCI,
and provides engagement / link to stakeholders.
WICCI Organizational Structure
Operations and Outreach: Provides logistical support to the
Science Council and performs outreach functions related to the
mission of WICCI (e.g. media release, public lectures, etc.)
WICCI Organizational Structure
Working Groups: created by the Science Council to conduct
science-based assessments of climate change impacts
pertaining to specific topics or areas of concern and to make
recommendations on adaptation strategies
WICCI Working Groups
Water
Resources
Human
Health
Milwaukee
Soil
Conservation
Coldwater Fish
Stormwater
Agriculture
Wisconsin
Climate
Wildlife
Adaptation
Plants & Natural
Communities
Green Bay
Central Sands
Hydrology
Forestry
Coastal
Communities
WICCI Future Directions
Assessment Reports: First Assessment Report to be
completed Fall, 2010. This will include an assessment of
physical climate change in Wisconsin and specific
vulnerabilities.
Funding: Some sort of steady funding is needed. We have
applied for a Great Lakes RISA, and will be submitting a
proposal for a USGS Midwest Regional Center.
Public / Political Connections: We have launched a (brief)
media campaign, and will continue public lecture series. We
also are actively travelling around the state to give talks,
including to political groups (e.g. the Public
Outline
• Introduction
A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (or WICCI)
• WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a boundary organization
• Downscaling Methodology and Results
Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
• Conclusions
Needs for Downscaled Data
Characterize Uncertainty
Uncertainty from: large-scale model physics, emissions
scenario, transition from large to small scale, additional
uncertainty (from subjective assessment)
High resolution (spatial and temporal)
8-10km resolution, daily time scale
Need to represent extremes
Extreme precipitation is necessary for hydrology; extreme
temperature for human health / forestry / others
FLEXIBILITY!!!
Numerous potential applications, so flexibility is needed!
Global Climate Change
Moving from Global to Regional
Downscaling: Interpret global projections on a scale
relevant to climate impacts.
WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy
Problems with simple interpolation:
Global to Local Climate Change
Moving from Global to Regional
Downscaling Method:
Downscale Probability
Distribution, instead of
actual variable.
Advantages:
• PDF is large-scale, so method is “more true” to technique
• Extreme events are better characterized
• PDFs are more flexible – allows a variety of applications
Work by David Lorenz - WICCI Climate Working Group /
Focus on Energy
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
• The large-scale predictors do not contain all the
information we need to know to predict the precipitation (P)
and temperature (T) at a particular point.
• This uncertainty in predicting P and T has important
implications for generating downscaled P and T with
realistic variance and extremes.
• We must predict more the just the most likely value for P
and T given the large scale fields, but also the distribution
of the errors from this value.
• The downscaled P and T are the sum of 1) the most likely
value and 2) a random number generated from the
distribution of the errors. Both components are required to
give realistic variance and extremes.
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
• Train the downscaling on station data (COOP stations) and
NCEP reanalysis precipitation (it’s like a GCM)
• Debias daily CDF of large-scale predictors from each
global climate model to NCEP CDF
• Use downscaling relationships from observations on global
climate models. Estimate parameters of sub-gridscale
distribution at each station location.
• Interpolate distribution parameters (not actual data) to
fine-scale grid • Final product: daily varying probability distribution on a
high-resolution grid, for each climate model, and for each
emissions scenario.
Temperature:
Temperature is downscaled using a standard normal
distribution:
Temperature:
Temperature is downscaled using a standard normal
distribution (valid because residuals are normal):
Large Scale
Small Scale (raw)
Precipitation:
Two steps: 1) Bernoulli distribution for rain / no rain. 2)
Generalized gamma distribution for rain amount.
The histogram of precipitation amount when the large-scale
predictor is in a) the 25th to 27.5th percentile and b) the
97.5th to 100th percentile
Precipitation:
Gamma:
Generalized Gamma:
How does it perform?
Ways to use the data:
1. Classic Risk Assessment
Use actual probability distributions to identify Risk as the
product of probability and consequence
2. Spatio-temporal Data
Generate spatial data using a “weather generator” type
noise pattern.
3. Historical Rescaling
Rescale an existing time series from a present-day PDF
to a future PDF.
Actual Probability Distributions
Probability
Present
Climate
Predicted
Climate
Impact
threshold
Climate Space
Adaption
Probability
Risk Assessment:
• Identify threshold /
response surface
• Define present day risk
with present day
probability distribution
• Compare future risk with
future probability
distribution
• Explore how adaptation
strategies can impact risk
Climate Space
Intense Precipitation Events
Global Climate Change
Thanks to D. Lorenz
Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant
to climate impacts.
WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy
Temporal Correlation between Stations
•Expect downscaled station data to be correlated with each other
because a portion of the stations’ variability is controlled by the largescale.
•However, if the spatial scale of the "random component" of the P (or
T) variability is larger the separation between stations, then one
expects the downscaled P (or T) to under-estimate the correlation
between stations.
Temporal Correlation between Stations
To remedy this situation, the random numbers used to generate the
precipitation at the different stations are not independent but instead
are correlated with each other. Let R be a nstat X ntime matrix of
independent random numbers used to generate the P occurrence. The
new R to generate the P occurrence is: W•R, where W is a nstat X nstat
matrix of weights.
Spatial and / or temporal data
Annual Temperature Change
Winter Temperature Change
>90° Days, and <0° Nights
Winter Precipitation Change
Rescale a historical time series
Probability
Present
Climate
MaxT (e.g.)
Probability
Why to use this approach:
• You’ve already done
some analysis with
historical weather data
• Impact is “event-like”
• Covariates are important
(e.g. warm, wet, and
windy on a given day)
• Policy decisions can be
compared to historical
decisions
MaxT (e.g.)
Outline
• Introduction
A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (or WICCI)
• WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a boundary organization
• Downscaling Methodology and Results
Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
• Conclusions
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
WICCI is set up as a boundary organization that includes
climate sciences, impact sciences, and policy makers.
The organizational structure engages stakeholders and
climate / impact scientists alike, while preserving the
identities of each group.
Working groups allow focused and efficient efforts at
understanding specific impacted systems
The Operations and Outreach arm actively engages the
public, and works to build support for the group in new and
existing stakeholder communities.
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
Future directions:
Base funding is needed as interest in the group snowballs.
Assessment reports to be completed annually.
Continued public outreach and engagement needed to build
support at the state and local levels.
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
Downscaling Climate over Wisconsin
Downscaled projections of precipitation and maximum and
minimum temperature for Wisconsin have been completed.
The downscaling methodology predicts the (daily) probability
distribution for a specific station based on large scale inputs.
The advantages of the downscaling technique include
(a) it works well
(b) interpolation of distribution parameters avoids bias in
extremes or discrete events
(c) uncertainty is characterized across various dimensions
(d) the resulting data are very flexible
Resources:
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu
Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming
http://dnr.wi.gov/environmentprotect/gtfgw/
UW Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
http://www.aos.wisc.edu
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
http://www.nelson.wisc.edu
Center for Climatic Research
http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
http://www.sage.wisc.edu
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch