Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
Center for Climatic Research
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Climate Change in Wisconsin
Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission
Feb. 4, 2010
D. Vimont, C. Kucharik, D. Lorenz, M. Notaro
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
Center for Climatic Research
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Climate Change in Wisconsin
D. Vimont, C. Kucharik, D. Lorenz, M. Notaro
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Thanks to:
C. Kucharik (SAGE), K. Holman (CCR), S. Vavrus (CCR)
Wisconsin State Climatology Office
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)
Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
Wisconsin Focus on Energy EERD Program
Outline
• Global Climate Change
• The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
• Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate
Data
• Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and
ways to use the data
• Conclusions and Future Directions
Outline
• Global Climate Change
• The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
• Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate
Data
• Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and
ways to use the data
• Conclusions and Future Directions
Global Climate Change
Greenhouse Gasses: “Trap” energy in lower atmosphere
Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gasses: Increasing to levels
we have never seen
Charles Keeling
Global Climate Change
Global Temperature: Has increased by ~0.7°C over the last
100yr. The rate of increase is “accelerating”.
IPCC WG1 FAQ 1.3, Fig. 1
Global Climate Change
Future Global Temperature: Temperature will increase by
about 1.6°C in the next 40yr, 2°-6°C by the end of the
century.
Mitigation:
Necessary to avoid dangerous
climate change
Adaptation:
Climate change is inevitable;
Adaptation needed to minimize
impacts
Outline
• Global Climate Change
• The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
• Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate
Data
• Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and
ways to use the data
• Conclusions and Future Directions
Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts
WICCI:
Partnership between the UW Nelson
Institute for Environmental Studies, the
Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups
Goal:
Assess and anticipate climate change
impacts on specific Wisconsin natural
resources, ecosystems and regions;
evaluate potential effects on industry,
agriculture, tourism, and other human
activities; and develop and
recommend adaptation strategies…
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu
WICCI as a Boundary Organization
WICCI: Boundary organization. Working Groups
organized around “Boundary Objects”.
WICCI Working Groups
Water
Resources
Human
Health
Milwaukee
Soil
Conservation
Coldwater Fish
Stormwater
Agriculture
Wisconsin
Climate
Wildlife
Adaptation
Plants & Natural
Communities
Green Bay
Central Sands
Hydrology
Forestry
Coastal
Communities
Outline
• Global Climate Change
• The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
• Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate
Data
• Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and
ways to use the data
• Conclusions and Future Directions
Global Climate Change
Future Climate Change:
How do we know what will
happen?
Global Climate Models
Divide the world into boxes,
solve equations that govern
weather / climate on a discrete
grid.
Apply forcing based on a
“storyline” of future emissions
Global Climate Change
Moving from Global to
Regional
Problem:
Models are meant to reliably
simulate GLOBAL climate.
What regional changes can
we trust?
How do we translate global
change into a regional
context?
What physical phenomena are
missing?
Global Climate Change
Thanks to D. Lorenz
Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant
to climate impacts.
WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy
Needs for Downscaled Data
Characterize Uncertainty
Uncertainty from: large-scale model physics, emissions
scenario, transition from large to small scale, additional
uncertainty (from subjective assessment)
High resolution (spatial and temporal)
8-10km resolution, daily time scale
Need to represent extremes
Extreme precipitation is necessary for hydrology; extreme
temperature for human health / forestry / others
FLEXIBILITY!!!
Numerous potential applications, so flexibility is needed!
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
Global Climate Change
Thanks to D. Lorenz
Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant
to climate impacts.
WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy
Downscaled Data (first order):
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios:
20c3m, sresb1, sresa1b, sresa2
Models:
15 climate models contributing daily data to the IPCC /
CMIP3 model archive
Realizations:
3 realizations per model to better resolve extreme events
Time Periods:
1960-1999, 2046-2065, 2081-2100
Total: 100Gb of data available, much more is possible (this
will expand as more model data / needs emerges)
Outline
• Global Climate Change
• The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
• Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate
Data
• Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and
ways to use the data
• Conclusions and Future Directions
Annual Temperature Change
Mean Temperature will warm by 4-9 oF by midcentury
Annual Temperature Change
Probabilistic Approach: More useful for planning
Annual Temperature Change
Winter Temperature will warm by 5-11 oF by midcentury
Annual Temperature Change
Winter Temperature will warm by 5-11 oF by midcentury
Annual Temperature Change
Summer Temperature will warm by 3-8 oF by mid-century
Annual Temperature Change
Summer Temperature will warm by 3-8 oF by mid-century
>90° Days, and <0° Nights
Intense Precipitation Events
Intense precipitation events become more
common in winter / spring
Intense Precipitation Events
Intense precipitation events become more
common in winter / spring
Snow (M. Notaro)
Downscaled data are used to estimate other
parameters of relevance to impact
assessments (e.g. annual snowfall)
Snowfall changes – 2055 conditions
A2 Scenario: Snowfall Changes
% Change
Snowfall is reduced by 20-30% by midcentury. This translates to 30-50% decrease
in midwinter snow depth
Snowfall changes – 2055 conditions
Snow season shortens by 1 to 1½ months
Ways to use the data:
1. Classic Risk Assessment
Use actual probability distributions to identify Risk as the
product of probability and consequence
2. Spatio-temporal Data
Generate spatial data using a “weather generator” type
noise pattern.
3. Historical Rescaling
Rescale an existing time series from a present-day PDF
to a future PDF.
Climate Change and Risk:
Risk:
Probability of an event occurring times its consequence
Mitigation:
Intervention to reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or
enhance their sinks
Adaptation:
Adjustment of a system to moderate potential damages, to
take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with
consequences, associated with climate change
Actual Probability Distributions
Probability
Present
Climate
Predicted
Climate
Impact
threshold
Climate Space
Adaption
Probability
Risk Assessment:
• Identify threshold /
response surface
• Define present day risk
with present day
probability distribution
• Compare future risk with
future probability
distribution
• Explore how adaptation
strategies can impact risk
Climate Space
Spatial and / or temporal data
Rescale a historical time series
Probability
Present
Climate
MaxT (e.g.)
Probability
Why to use this approach:
• You’ve already done
some analysis with
historical weather data
• Impact is “event-like”
• Covariates are important
(e.g. warm, wet, and
windy on a given day)
• Policy decisions can be
compared to historical
decisions
MaxT (e.g.)
Outline
• Global Climate Change
• The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI)
• Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate
Data
• Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and
ways to use the data
• Conclusions and Future Directions
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
Downscaling Climate over Wisconsin
Downscaled projections of precipitation and maximum and
minimum temperature for Wisconsin have been completed.
The downscaling methodology predicts the (daily) probability
distribution for a specific station based on large scale inputs.
The advantages of the downscaling technique include
(a) it works well
(b) interpolation of distribution parameters avoids bias in
extremes or discrete events
(c) uncertainty is characterized across various dimensions
(d) the resulting data are very flexible
Conclusions:
WICCI has available one of the most comprehensive
and flexible (i.e. useful for assessing impacts of
climate change) regionally downscaled climate data
sets in the world.
Major findings include:
• Wisconsin will warm by 4°-9°F by mid-21st century
• Mean winter precipitation will increase by 0%-40% by
mid-21st century
• Extreme precipitation events will intensify by mid-21st
century, especially during winter, spring, and fall.
• Winter snowfall and snow cover will be significantly
reduced by mid-21st century.
Future Directions:
1. Temporal Sequencing (duration of drought, duration
of extreme temperature events, etc.):
Work is underway. Downscaled data looks reasonable.
2. Wind (EERD 2010-2012):
Important for: Energy, forestry, lake circulation, etc.
Methodology: Extend existing Generalized Linear Model to a
multivariate probability distribution.
3. Evapotranspiration (EERD 2010-2012):
Important for: lakes, hydrology, forestry, wildlife, lake biology (and
health impacts), etc.
Methodolgy: Use wind / precipitation / temperature results in a
regional land surface model
4. Solar radiation / cloud cover (EERD 2010-2012):
This one will be tricky, and may not be reliable. But we won’t know
until we try.
Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts
WICCI:
Partnership between the UW Nelson
Institute for Environmental Studies, the
Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups
Goal:
Assess and anticipate climate change
impacts on specific Wisconsin natural
resources, ecosystems and regions;
evaluate potential effects on industry,
agriculture, tourism, and other human
activities; and develop and
recommend adaptation strategies…
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu
Resources:
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu
Climate Working Group Interactive Website
http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/cwg/
UW Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
http://www.aos.wisc.edu
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
http://www.nelson.wisc.edu
Center for Climatic Research
http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
http://www.sage.wisc.edu
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch
Image Sources:
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Mauna Loa CO2 curve: Image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art,
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide_png
Charles Keeling Image: c/o Scripps Institution for Oceanography,
http://sio.ucsd.edu/keeling/
Historical and future temperature change and Greenhouse Effect: IPCC WG1,
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
Climate Model Schematic: http://www.iac.ethz.ch/groups/knutti/research
June, 2008 Flood Event: Midwest Regional Climate Center,
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=jun08_flooding