Balance of Payments Adjustment Policies Policies to correct a BoP imbalance • Most discussions focus on countries running a current account deficit • But persistent surpluses can also be a problem! • Both deficit and surplus can be described as a disequilibrium • Evaluation might consider: – – – – Automatic partial correction of a deficit Demand-side policies Supply-side policies The consequences of policies for other macroeconomic objectives such as growth, inflation and jobs Deficits and Surpluses as a share of GDP Current Account Balances - Deficits and Surpluses PERCENT Current account deficit as a percentage of GDP 10.0 10.0 7.5 7.5 5.0 5.0 2.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 -5.0 -5.0 -7.5 -7.5 -10.0 -10.0 -12.5 -12.5 98 99 Germany Ireland Japan 00 01 02 03 Spain United Kingdom United States 04 05 06 07 08 West Germany Source: OECD Why might the deficit as a share of GDP be a better guide to the size of a trade imbalance? Are deficits self-correcting? • Some partial self-correction • Economic slowdown and recession – Squeeze on real incomes and output – Fall in import demand – Releases capacity for exporting • Deficit might lead to depreciation in the exchange rate – Change in relative prices of exports and imports – Expenditure-switching towards exports and away from imports – Depends on price elasticity of demand for X and M and also elasticity of supply The US trade deficit and their recession United States Balance of Trade in Goods $ billion per month 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -25 -25 -30 -30 -35 -35 -40 -40 -45 -45 -50 -50 -55 -55 -60 -60 -65 -65 -70 -70 01 02 03 Annual growth of real GDP 04 05 06 07 USD (billions) Note the steep fall in the trade deficit as the economy hit recession. Why is income elasticity of demand important in this chart? billions 8 Percent 8 08 Trade balance in goods and services $bn Source: Reuters EcoWin But what are the wider economic effects? Expenditure switching • Expenditure switching: – Change in relative prices of X and M – Changes incentives for consumers – Changes profitability of exporting – Can be caused by • Movement in the exchange rate • Introduction of import tariffs and other forms of protectionism • Period of high or low relative inflation – Key point is whether trade volumes respond to changing prices – I.e. price elasticity of demand for X and M Does a depreciation cut the trade deficit? US Trade Deficit and the US Dollar 130 130 125 125 120 120 115 Dollar depreciating 115 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 billions USD (billions) Index trade balance $ billion per month, dollar exchange rate index 09 Federal Reserve, Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Index Broad Trade Balance, Total, Goods and services, SA Source: Reuters EcoWin Any evidence for the UK? UK Trade & the Sterling Exchange Rate 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 -5.0 -5.0 -7.5 -7.5 -10.0 -10.0 -12.5 -12.5 -15.0 -15.0 billions Quarterly balance £ (billions) Sterling index Quarterly trade balance, £ billion (bottom pane) and exchange rate index 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Effective Exchange Rate Index Balance of Trade in Goods and Services Source: Reuters EcoWin The J Curve • Effect of a depreciation on the trade deficit depends on price elasticity of demand. • In the short term, demand is often inelastic – limits extra revenue from exports • Demand for M is inelastic – higher prices cause a rise in total spending on imports • The J Curve effect says a trade deficit can worsen after a depreciation, but get better in the long term provided that the elasticity of demand is high enough • Marshall-Lerner condition: Trade balance will improve if Ped X + Ped M . 1 • Elasticity of supply of domestic producers is also important (often forgotten) The J Curve effect Trade surplus Ped X + Ped M > 1 for the trade balance to improve Time C A Trade deficit B Expenditure Reduction • Expenditure reduction – Cutting aggregate demand – Direct effect on consumption and therefore demand for imports: – Possible routes: • Higher direct taxes – lower disposable income • Low taxes on saving • Increased interest rates – to dampen consumption • Cut in government spending – Focus here is on income elasticity of demand for imports Supply-side policies • To rebalance trade over the medium term • Focus on – Improving competitiveness in global markets: • Innovation • Research and development • Product quality / design • Infrastructure to support trade sectors – Attracting inward investment – producing output domestically and then exporting – Raising productivity / lowering unit costs – Developing areas of new competitive advantage – Raising foreign income elasticity of demand for exports – Reducing foreign price elasticity of demand for exports Weaknesses on supply-side and UK trade • Persistent productivity gap • Low business investment as a share of GDP • Low levels of research and development • Loss of capacity in manufacturing industry • Evidence that UK exports have lower income elasticity of demand than our income elasticity of demand for imports The Productivity Gap GDP per hour worked Comparison, 1996-2007 Index, UK = 100 140 135 130 France 125 Germany 120 UK 115 US 110 105 100 95 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: ONS Source: UK competitiveness indicators, Feb 2009 Investment Gap? Business investment Comparison, 1992-2007 Per cent of GDP in current prices 14 12 Germany France 10 UK US 8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: OECD Source: UK competitiveness indicators, Feb 2009 Research Gap? Gross domestic expenditure on R&D Comparison, 1992-2006 Per cent of GDP 3.0 France 2.5 Germany UK US 2.0 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 1.5 Source: OECD Source: UK competitiveness indicators, Feb 2009 UK Exports and Imports UK Exports and Imports of Goods and Services Annual value of trade - £billion at current prices 450 Balance of Payments: Exports: Total Trade in Goods & Services 368.337G Balance of Payments: Imports: Total Trade in Goods & Services 450 415.817G 400 400 350 350 300 300 billions GBP (billions) Imports 250 250 Exports 200 200 150 150 100 100 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Source: Reuters EcoWin Summary points • Some trade deficits are partially self correcting • But recession and a depreciation are not enough if the root causes lie on the supply-side of the economy • Ultimately BoP adjustment requires: – Period of below trend growth – Improvement in investment in traded goods industries – Control of price and cost inflation relative to that of our competitors – Open trade to drive better export performance – Protectionism is not the answer