The solar cycle response of the middle
and upper atmosphere: Simulations
with HAMMONIA
Hauke Schmidt1, Guy Brasseur2, Marco Giorgetta1, and
Aleksandr Gruzdev3
1:
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
2: now at National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
3: A. M. Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Moscow, Russia
Outline
• HAMMONIA - Model description
• The atmospheric response to the 27-day variation
• The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle
- Energy budget
- Chemistry
- Dynamics
• The atmospheric response to CO2 doubling
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
ECHAM5
MAECHAM5
HAMMONIA
~ 80 km
~ 30 km
Ion Drag
Molecular Processes
Gravity Wave Drag
Chemical heating
IR Cooling (non-LTE)
Neutral Gas Phase Chemistry (MOZART3)
Turbulent Diffusion
Clouds & Convection
Surface Fluxes
IR Cooling
~ 250 km
Solar Heating (SRB&C, Ly-a, EUV)
Solar Heating (near UV, vis. & near IR)
HAMMONIA – a member of the ECHAM family
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA - Description (1)
•
•
•
67 levels from the surface to ~250 km, T31 horizontal resolution
Based on ECHAM/MAECHAM5 with extensions to account for processes
in the upper atmosphere
Radiation
- Near UV, Vis. & near IR heating: 4 bins, Fouquart & Bonnel (Contr.
Atm Phys., 1980); or taken from TUV (< 680nm)
- IR cooling: RRTM from Mlawer et al. upto 0.1 hPa (eg. Iacono et
al., JGR, 2000)
- Non-LTE IR cooling: 15 μm CO2 & 9.6 μm O3 above 0.02 hPa
(Fomichev, JGR, 1998)
- CO2-IR heating (Ogibalov & Fomichev, Adv. Sp. Res., 2003)
- EUV heating: 5 to 105 nm, 20 bins, Richards et al. (JGR, 1994),
efficiency from Roble (AGU Monogr., 1995)
- Schumann Runge B&C heating: either Strobel (JGR, 1978), eff.
from Mlynczak & Solomon (JGR, 1993); or taken from TUV
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA - Description (2)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Doppler-spread non-orographic gravity wave drag (Hines, JASTP, 1997)
and orographic gravity wave drag (Lott, MWR, 1999)
Prescribed ion drag (Hong & Lindzen, JAS, 1996)
Molecular processes
Chemistry of the MOZART-3 CTM (48 constituents, 153 gas phase
reactions)
Chemical lower boundary concentrations from MOZART-2 simulations
Photodissociation rate computation from MOZART-3 (based on TUV,
Madronich et al.)
•
•
•
•
JO2: Chabrillat & Kockaerts (Lya, GRL, 1998), Brasseur & Solomon (SRC, Book, 1986),
Koppers & Murtagh (SRB, Ann. Geoph., 1996)
JNO: Minschwaner & Siskind (JGR, 1993)
Chemical heating for 7 reactions
R and Cp height dependent
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Acknowledgements
People at (or formerly at) MPI-Met:
• M. Charron, T. Diehl, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, and E. Roeckner and the ECHAM-team
People who contributed to the model development outside MPI-Met:
• V. Fomichev1, D. Kinnison2, and S. Walters2
1
2
York University, Toronto, Canada
NCAR, Boulder, USA
• J. Lean (Naval Res. Lab., Washington, USA) provided the solar irradiance spectra
• D. Marsh (NCAR) helped in the model evaluation with SABER data
• M. Zecha and P. Hoffmann (IAP Kühlungsborn) for model evaluation with ground-
based observations
• Computations were made at the DKRZ (German climate computing centre)
• The work was supported by the BMBF (German ministry for education and science)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA
SABER/TIMED, July 1-16, 2002
Zonal mean temperature [K], July, 16 LT
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA
URAP
SABER/TIMED,
July 6-14, 2002
Zonal mean O3 [ppmv], July, 15 LT
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Zonal mean zonal wind [m/s], July
HAMMONIA
UARS (HRDI) / UKMO
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Temperature in the Mesopause Region
HAMMONIA – Meteor Radar Observations
(courtesy by M. Zecha, IAP Kühlungsborn, Germany,
for meteor radar details, see e.g. Singer et al., JASTP, 2004)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Variability of solar irradiance as given by UARS / SOLSTICE
(Maximum: 1992, Minimum: 1996)
(Rottmann, Space Sc. Rev., 2000)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Penetration depth of solar radiation in the atmosphere
(Liou, Academic Press, 2002)
50
100
150
200
250
300
(nm)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
normalized intensity
The variation of solar UV radiation
(Rottman, Sp. Sc. Rev., 2000)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
27-day Variation Experiments - Setup
Two simulations over 5 years each:
a) forced by mean solar irradiance as for January to June 1990
b) as in a) but with an additional 27-day variation of solar irradiance
-
-
irradiance variation is assumed to be sinusoidal and have a period of
exactly 27 days
irradiance depending on wavelength (1nm resolution, see Lean et al.,
JGR, 1997) for λ>120nm has been analysed spectrally for Jan-Jun 1990
the analysed amplitude for the 27-day period was used as amplitude of
our artificial forcing
EUV is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Richards et al., JGR, 1994)
SSTs fixed to climatological values
compound concentrations at the surface are fixed to climatological values
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The 27-day solar signal in
low-latitude ozone
no forcing
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The 27-day solar signal in
mid-latitude ozone
Normalized Ozone Power Spectra at 50N
winter
250
summer
250
2.0
1.5
1.5
200
1.0
200
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
100
-3.0
(km )
150
-1.5
150
-2.0
-2.5
H e ig h t
H e ig h t ( k m )
-0.5
-3.0
-3.5
100
-4.0
-4.5
-3.5
-5.0
-4.0
-5.5
-4.5
50
50
-6.0
-5.0
0
10
-6.5
0
20
30
Period (day)
40
50
10
20
30
40
50
Period (day)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The 27-day solar signal in stratospheric ozone
Ozone running spectrum at 35 km at 50S
50
-11.0
P e rio d (d a y )
-11.5
40
-12.0
-12.5
-13.0
30
-13.5
-14.0
20
-14.5
-15.0
10
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Year of simulation
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar Cycle Experiments - Setup
Two simulations over 20 years forced by constant solar irradiance for
a) solar minimum (September 1986, F10.7=69)
b) solar maximum (November 1989, F10.7=235)
-
irradiance depending on wavelength (1nm resolution) from Lean et al.
(JGR, 1997) for λ>120nm
EUV is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Richards et al., JGR, 1994)
upper boundary condition for H und O from MSISE90 is modulated using
F10.7 as proxy (Hedin, JGR, 1992)
thermospheric solar NO production is increased by 1/3 for high activity
NO production by galactic cosmic rays is modulated
SSTs fixed to climatological values
Compound concentrations at the surface fixed to climatological values
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on the global mean
energy budget
solar heating (incl. chemical)
infrared cooling
molecular diffusion
solar minimum
solar maximum
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on the energy budget
(annual mean, K/day)
solar heating
long wave heating/cooling
chemical heating
molecular diffusion (heat conduction)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect - annual mean
delta T [vmr], (solar max – min)
delta T, significance
delta O3 [%], (solar max – min)
delta O3, significance
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on temperature
simulation vs. observations
(observed values are adapted from papers listed by
Beig et al., Rev. Geophys., 2003)
delta T [K], annual zonal mean, (solar max – min)
0d
10d
3-10b
8d
8a
0#,b
2e 8g5h 3j
0d
-1f
15c
4f
0#,m
0#,k
a: French, PhD thesis, 2002, OH
b: Reisin & Scheer, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2002, OH, O2
c: Mohanakumar, Ann. Geo., 1995, rockets
d: She & Krueger, Adv Sp. Res., 2003, lidar
e: Lowe, workshop paper, 2002, OH
f: Keckhut et al., JGR, 1995, lidar
g: Semenov, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2000, OH
h: Offerman et al., Adv. Space Res., 2003, OH
j: Espy & Stegmann, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2002, OH
k: Luebken, GRL, 2000, rockets
m: Sigernes et al., JGR, 2003, OH
#: zero or at least no significant trend
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Height vs. Pressure in HAMMONIA
solar min
(1*CO2)
solar max –
solar min
2*CO2 –
1*CO2
dashed:
negative values
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect - annual mean
delta T [vmr], (solar max – min)
delta T, significance
delta O3 [%], (solar max – min)
delta O3, significance
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on annual mean stratospheric ozone
(Lee and Smith, JGR, 2003)
Satellite observations
2D-model results
Solar cycle effect on July ozone
O3 [vmr], July, low activity
delta O3 [%], July, (high - low) activity
delta O3 [%], July, (high - low) activity
Confidence level of delta O3 [%]
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The solar cycle effect on the diurnal
variation of ozone at the mesopause
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
16
20
0
local time
0
4
8
12
local time
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on
July chemistry
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Noctilucent Clouds
(Polar Mesospheric Clouds)
Occur at the summer
mesopause, depending on
• Temperature (< 150 K)
• Water vapor
• Condensation nuclei
Solar Cycle and Polar Mesospheric Clouds
(DeLand et al., JGR, 2003)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on temperature
T [K], July, low activity
delta T [K], July, (high - low) activity
delta T [K], July, (high - low) activity
Confidence level of delta T [%]
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal
wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere
NCEP analyses, (Kodera & Kuroda, JGR,
2002; Matthes et al., JGR, 2004)
HAMMONIA
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal
wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere
NCEP analyses,
(Matthes et al., JGR, 2004)
old simulations,
10 years
HAMMONIA
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal
wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere
(Shibata and Kuroda,
JASTP, 2005)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The QBO simulated by MA-ECHAM5
MA-ECHAM5:
(Giorgetta et al., GRL, 2002)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on temperature –
the longitudinal dependence, January
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on tides
T [K]
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on tides
v [m/s]
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
CO2 doubling Experiments - Setup
Four simulations over 10 years each
1) surface CO2 of 360 ppm (same run as „solar minimum“)
2) surface CO2 of 720 ppm + changed SST (and sea ice)
-
initial concentrations doubled to 720 ppm, followed by a one year
initialization phase
sea surface temperatures and sea ice are taken from a respective
run with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ECHAM5 + MPI-OM)
3) only SST changed (according to a CO2 concentration of 720 ppm)
4) only CO2 increased to 720 ppm
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Effect of CO2 doubling and SST
change on Temperature
delta T, July
CO2 + SST changed
delta T, July
delta T, July
only SST changed
only CO2 changed
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Effect of CO2 doubling and SST
change on Temperature
delta T, July
experiment where CO2 + SSTs
are changed simultaneously
delta T, July
sum of two experiments
where CO2 and SSTs are
changed separately
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Effect of CO2 doubling and SST
change on July zonal wind
u [m/s], July
CO2 + SST changed
only SST changed
only CO2 changed
delta u [m/s], July
delta u [m/s], July
delta u [m/s], July
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Conclusions
• The response to the 27-day variation is highly variable in space
and time.
• 11-year cycle effects in the MLT are strong.
• The magnitude of the stratospheric ozone and temperature
response is in agreement with observations. – How sure are we
about the response in the real atmosphere?
• The solar signal in stratospheric model winds is not robust. – How
robust is the signal in the real atmosphere?
• The solar signal depends on longitude and local time (tides!).
• Changes of SSTs have an influence at least up to the mesopause.
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The End
Schmidt et al., The HAMMONIA chemistry climate model: Sensitivity of
the mesopause region to the 11-year solar cycle and CO2 doubling, J.
Climate, in press, 2006.
available at
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~schmidt.hauke/publications.php
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006