Polarization and American Politics:
Is there a Center?
Polarization Argument
• Few moderates in electorate (is this true?)
• Partisanship plays greater role in mass voting
• Partisanship plays greater role in Congress
• Party candidates stake out more clear ideological
differences
• “Culture war,” Red v. Blue nation, etc.
The Electorate, 1974
40
35
30
25
gop
20
dem
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of partisans. Percent w/in each group
The Electorate in 2004
40
35
30
25
gop
20
dem
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of partisans. Percent w/in each group
Polarized Partisans & Elites
• Partisans “sorting themselves”
• Gradual realignments since 1968
• Demise of southern Democrats
• Demise of New England Republicans
• Transition from economic to social issue divisions
• Institutions should reflect polarization
Party Unity in US House Floor Votes,
1960 - 2000
100
proportion of all floor votes with
majority of one party against
majority of the other
60
% of Democrats voting with party
on such votes
% of Republicans voting with party
on such votes
40
Year
2000
1990
1980
20
1970
percent
80
GOP trends since 1974
40
35
30
25
gop74
gop84
20
gop94
gop04
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of Republicans (excluding leaners)
Dem trends since 1974
40
35
30
25
dem74
dem84
20
dem94
dem04
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of Democrats (excluding leaners)
Polarization, 109th Congress
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
.9 - 1
.8 - .9
.7 - .8
.6 - .7
.5 - .6
.4 - .5
.3 - .4
.2 - .3
.1 - .2
0 - .1
0 - .1
.1 - .2
.2 - .3
.3 - .4
.4 - ,5
.5 - .6
.6 - .7
.7 - .8
.8 - .9
1 - .9
Number of seats; classified by DW-Nom member’s voting score
Feelings about 'opposite' party's presidential
candidate (thermometer scores)
60
55
50
dem_goppres
gop_dempres
45
40
35
30
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
Graph plots trends in Democratic identifiers’ feelings about Republican presidential
candidates and Republican identifiers feelings about Democratic presidential
candidates.
Gap between Democrats and Republicans' Feelings
toward Republican candidates for Congress.
diff_re:demcong
20
18
16
14
diff_re:demcong
12
10
8
6
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Graph plots the gap between Democrats feeling thermometer ratings of
Republican candidates, and Republican’s scores about Republican
candidates.
When seen this way:
Evidence of growing Polarization
Partisan voters more partisan
Partisan representatives more partisan
But what about every one else
Independents?
Another Picture of Electorate
Retreat from parties and party system (dealingment):
• More independents
• Independents qualitatively different than partisans
• Little mass support for two-party system
• Polarization an artifact of electoral system
(safe seats & where people live…)
The Electorate, 1974
40
35
30
25
gop
20
ind
dem
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of ‘everyone’. Percent w/in each group
A Centered Electorate, 2004?
40
35
30
25
gop
20
ind
dem
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of ‘everyone’. Percent w/in each group
The Electorate in 2004
14
12
10
8
gop
ind
6
dem
4
2
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Moderate Independents 26% of electorate (largest block)
Ideological self-placement of ‘everyone’. Proportion of electorate
Independents, 1952 - 2004
40
35
30
Ind, Lean D
Ind.
Ind, Lean R
Total Ind.
25
20
15
10
5
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
Responses to initial NES question, “Generally speaking…..”
Independents, since 1974
40
35
30
25
ind74
ind84
20
ind94
ind04
15
10
5
0
ex lib
lib
sl lib
mod,
mid
sl con
con
ex con
Ideological self-placement of independents (including leaners)
2008: The Electorate
• 40% (plurality of Americans identify as independent)
• 40% of independents (who respond) ID as “moderate” “ middle”
• 25% of all Americans (who respond) ID as “moderate” “middle”
• 22% ID as “liberal”
• 32% ID as “conservative”
Change since 1974
More GOP conservatives in Congress
More liberal Democrats in Congress
Fewer Democrats and Republicans in the electorate
Polarization without partisans
Without meaningful political competition
Reform Goals 50 yrs ago:
Build Responsible Parties
• 1950s, Problem: weak, incoherent parties,
lack of accountability
• 1950s Reform goals
Cohesive, ideologically distinct parties
Party unity in legislature
Greater party role in campaign finance
Closed nominations (no blanket primary)
Rank and file partisans select conv. delegates
Greater role of policy in (national) campaigns
Responsible Party Model
APSA report also noted:
End one party rule that renders elections
meaningless in much of nation
End electoral college that renders elections
meaningless in much of nation
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1930
1920
1910
1900
0
1940
0.05
1890
Proportion seats won with less than 5% margin
Decline of Competition, US
House 1898 - 2000
Year
Proportion of House seats won by 5% or less
Incumbent Victory Margins:
1898 - 2000
0.5
0.4
0.3
DemMargin
GOPMargin
0.2
0.1
Year
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
0
Representation and
Competition
11
0.58
19
40 57 52 22
4
26
0.38
0.18
85-100 R
80-85 R
75-80 R
70-75 R
65-70 R
60-65 R
55-60 R
14
50-55 R
50-55 D
55-60 D
60-65 D
65-70 D
70-75 D
75-80 D
80-85 D
-0.22
Series1
85-100 D
-0.02
20
-0.42
35
-0.62
13
30
49 30
12
Jan. 2005 - Dec 2006, by type of district. (109th Cong)
Party Discipline w/o Competition
• High levels of cynicism about politics
– 43% agree, ‘people have no say’ in 2004
– 27% agreed ‘people have no say’ in 1960
– 56% agree ‘elected officials don’t care’ in
2004
– 25% agreed officials don’t care in 1960
• Decline in turnout (?)
Are these trends related?
Parties are now much more cohesive:
• Soft money, fundraising post BCRA
• Congressional floor voting discipline
• Party leaders (in Govt.) more power
• Activists dominate presidential nominations
Politics, media more partisan, more polarized
Electoral competition often meaningless (swing, safe seats)
Fewer partisans, engagement with politics down
Public Views of Elections & Parties
• Less than 1/3 support maintaining two party system
• Few think that elections make government pay attention
• Turnout stagnant (down in north) despite fewer barriers
Do Elections Matter?
80
70
60
dem_electsmat
ind_electsmat
gop_electsmat
50
40
30
20
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
Trends in responses to NES q; Do elections make govt pay attn?
Do Elections Matter?
Growing cynicism & low efficacy about elections
• Pre-dates 2000 election disaster
• Pre-dates recently lobbying scandal
• Unlikely to be affected by HAVA like reforms
Do Elections Matter
How honest vote counting (% very dishonest, 2004):
US
23%
Venezuela
18%
Taiwan
16%
Mexico
13%
Philippines 12%
S Africa
8%
Bulgaria
8%
Slovakia
7%
Chile
6%
Russia
5%
PR, PO, JP, SW, SK, AU, GB
NE, CA, FN, NZ, NO
lt 1%
What problem should election
reforms target?
• “faith in elections”
• “public trust”
• “have elections express will of the people”
• engagement with representative democracy
• participation
• polarization w/o partisans, w/o competition
Make Elections Worth Stealing
Assume the ‘perfect’ election under HAVA - type reforms
polling places, early voting, registration….
Assume just one candidate has a chance to win ….
Will HAVA reforms affect anything?
Make Elections Worth Stealing
If you build it, they will come…
Electoral competition -> representation of ‘center’, median
Electoral competition -> alter composition of electorate
Electoral competition -> interest, learning, participation
Electoral competition -> accountability, change in govt.
Electoral competition -> over crowded polling locations,
more Florida 2000, cheating, etc.
Larger Questions
How much should government & elections represent
those care the least about politics?
Will more competition make people upset?
How much does political apathy is due to the
dysfunctional aspects of institutions?
What reforms?