Issues to Watch: 2007
Jonathan Lash
World Resources Institute
December 19, 2006
5 ISSUES TO WATCH
•
•
•
•
•
Prospects for Climate Legislation
Climate and Energy in the Agriculture Bill
Chesapeake Water Quality Initiative
New Science and Technology
International Process
Congressional Action?
REPORT: November 17, 2006
A New Energy Future
Lessons from the 2006 Election:
“Campaign ads highlighted energy issues
in a prominent and unprecedented way
this election cycle and had a huge impact
on the campaigns.”
More than 75 percent [of voters in the
2006 elections] said they agreed with
the following statement:
“Congress should pass legislation
promoting renewables and alternative
energy sources as an effective way to
reduce global warming pollution.”
Majorities in all demographics said lawmakers should
support to the two solutions, including 53 percent of selfdescribed conservatives and nearly 37 percent of selfdescribed “very conservative” voters.
Hurricane Katrina
August 28, 2005
Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff
Schmaltz, MODIS Land
Rapid Response Team
Growing Public
Concern in US
CALIFORNIA
• Global Warming Solutions Act
(signed September 27, 2006):
– Caps California’s greenhouse gas
emissions at 1990 levels by 2020.
– Requires State Air Resources Board
to establish, monitor, and enforce
compliance for statewide
greenhouse gas emissions reporting
program.
– Authorizes state board to adopt
market-based compliance
mechanisms including cap-andtrade.
Regulating U.S. Emissions in Northeast
• Goal: A regional cap-and-trade
program initially covering CO2
emissions from power plants
– Stabilize emissions at base levels
through 2014
– Reduce by 10% by 2018
• Region statistics:
– 7 states represent 7% US total GHG
emissions
–  1.5% of world GHG emissions (
Australia, rank 15th)
• Other states:
– MD (signed; expected to implement
under new governor)
– MA (expected to rejoin under new
governor)
50% of electricity sales subject to
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) /
Renewable Energy (RE) goals
20 states + D.C. with RPS
3 states w/ goals
RPS in effect
Goals in place
Source: database of state incentives for renewable energy (2006)
36% of U.S auto market set for GHG rules
12 states adopting California GHG rules;
number of new car registrations (thousands of vehicles), 2005
39
286
60
169
864
372
701
59
205
609
2,145
409
Source: National Automobile
Dealer Association 2006;
Tomorrow’s Markets
Reforestation
Biofuels
Carbon Capture & Storage
Energy Efficiency
Wind power
GHG Reducing
Products and
Services
Mass transit
Adapted from:
Robert Socolow, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
Coal-based
Synfuels with CCS
David Slump
Andy Ruben
General Manager, global marketing,
Vice President of Corporate Strategy/Sustainability, GE Energy,
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
General Electric Co.
Ruth Shaw
Group Executive,
Public Policy and President,
Duke Nuclear,
Duke Energy Corp.
Jeff Sterba
Chairman, President and CEO,
PNM Resources
Michael Murray,
Director, Legislative Policy,
Sempra Energy
Garth Edward
Trading Manager, Environmental Products,
Shell Group
Elizabeth A. Moler
Executive V.P., Government and Environmental Affairs &
Public Policy,
Exelon Corp.
Senate Committee: Environment and Public Works
109th Congress
Republicans:
Democrats:
•James Inhofe, Committee Chair (OK)
•James Jeffords, Minority leader (VT)
•John Warner (VA)
•Max Baucus (MT)
•Christopher Bond (MO)
•Joseph Lieberman (CT)
•George Voinovich (OH)
•Barbara Boxer (CA)
•Lincoln Chafee (RI)
•Thomas Carper (DE)
•Lisa Murkowski (AK)
•Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)
•John Thune (SD)
•Frank Lautenberg (NJ)
•Jim DeMint (SC)
•Barack Obama (IL)
•Johnny Isakson (GA)
•David Vitter (LA)
- New Committee Chair
- Will not be serving in 110th
Congress
Incumbent replacements for 110th Congress:
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Bernard Sanders (I-VT)
CARS and COAL
American Electric Power,
Zimmer Coal Plant,
Moscow, Ohio
Global Markets
Can We Reduce
GHGs and Still
Compete Globally?
In the last 10 years the
United States has
consumed approximately
72.4 billion barrels of oil.
More than 50% of that
was imported.
* Based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Report:
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 12 , 2006 Release
Number of Gas Stations
that carry E85
Source: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
If the entire acreage under corn
production in the United States
(80 million acres) were turned
over to ethanol production, it
would only account for one eighth
of current gasoline demand.
*Data from World Resources Institute
Dead Zones
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
No dispute among scientific
bodies…
Year
Body
Statement
2001
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the
last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”
2001
U.S. National Academy of Science
“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human
activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to
rise.”
2003
American Geophysical Union
“Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate. … Scientific evidence
strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global
near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century.”
2003
American Meteorological Society
“There is now clear evidence that the mean annual temperature at the earth’s
surface, average over the entire globe, has been increasing in the past 200 years.
There is also clear evidence that the abundance of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere has increased over the same period.”
2004
American Association for the
Advancement of Science
no "substantive disagreement in the scientific community" that anthropogenic global
warming is happening.
2005
Science academies of Brazil,
Canada, China, France, Germany,
Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Russia,
U.S., India
Joint statement: "There is now strong evidence that significant global warming is
occurring… It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed
to human activities. This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate."
2006
U.S. Climate Change Science
Program
"clear evidence of human influences on the climate system."
Financial Times – December 2006
A Different
Kind of
Hot Times
On the
Slopes
AP Photo
Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Risk, for species
diversity,
wetlands, and
coastal zones
significantly
increases when
temperatures rise
above 2º C
Hare, 2005; Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Cellulosic Ethanol Pilot Plant
Supercapacitor with
Nanotechnology
Thin-film solar cells
(Source: Chevron-Texaco)
(Source: Dakota Gasification
Examples of Pre-Combustion
CO2 Capture Systems
Coal Gasification to Produce SNG
Petcoke Gasification to Produce H2
(North Dakota, USA)
(Kansas, USA)
Venture capital flows to clean technology
companies
US R&D Expenditures
1981 - 2005
3500
3000
2000
1500
1000
500
Year
GROUP 1: ENERGY EFFICIENCY
GROUP II: FOSSIL FUELS
II.3 Total CO2 Capture and Storage
GROUP III: RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
GROUP IV: NUCLEAR FISSION and FUSION
GROUP V: HYDROGEN and FUEL CELLS
GROUP VI: OTHER POWER and STORAGE TECHS
GROUP VI: TOTAL OTHER TECH./RESEARCH
Source: IEA R&D database http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/rd.asp
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
0
1981
$ Million
2500
The Key is Top 25
Top 25 in
Population
Thailand
Bangladesh,
Nigeria,
Viet Nam,
Philippines,
Ethiopia,
Egypt,
Netherlands,
(Taiwan)
Top 25 in GDP
USA, China, (EU25), Canada,
S.Korea,
Russia, India, Japan,
Australia,
Germany, Brazil, UK,
S.Africa,
Italy, Mexico, France,
Spain,
Indonesia, Iran, Turkey
Poland,
(68% World GHG Emissions)
Argentina
Congo
Ukraine,
Pakistan
S. Arabia
Top 25 in
Emissions
(80% World GHG Total)
Source: WRI/CAIT
European Climate Exchange
Futures and Contracts
Price and Volume
ECX Futures Contracts: Price and Volume
8,000,000
Total Volume
35.00
Dec08 Sett
7,000,000
6,000,000
30.00
25.00
5,000,000
20.00
4,000,000
15.00
3,000,000
2,000,000
10.00
1,000,000
5.00
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“China overtakes the United
States as the world’s biggest
emitter before 2010.”
-World Energy Outlook 2006
International Energy Agency
Per Capita Emissions, 2000