NBA: Owners Meeting
DUMUNC 2016
Taseen Haque
Letter from the Chair:
HELLO DELEGATES!
My name is Taseen and I have the distinct pleasure of being your chair for DUMUNC 2016. I
am currently a sophomore here at Duke looking to major in Public Policy Studies. Outside of
MUN, I am involved with a mental health organization, NAMI, that advises student government
and the administration on how to address mental health on campus. Beyond that I’m also
conducting some neuroscience research at a lab and I volunteer at the Emergency Department at
Duke Hospital. Some things I do for fun include being a sportswriter for the newspaper, playing
Clash of Clans, and walking through Duke Gardens when I get the chance.
I am so excited for this committee and conference! The NBA is the largest growing sports league
in the US and now is a critical time to make course-altering decisions. The choices you and your
fellow delegates can help change—for the better or worse—the future of the NBA and in the end
the future of basketball in America.
Let me know if you have any questions, comments, or concerns!
Warmest Regards,
Taseen Haque,
Duke University, Trinity College ‘18
B.A. Public Policy Studies
tfh8@duke.edu
Topic 1: Playoff Format
History
In modern NBA history, the current playoff format has its roots in the format that began
in 1984. It is structured as a 16-team, four-round knockout. In this format, there are two sides of
the bracket, each with eight teams. The teams in the first round are matched so that the team with
the best record in the conference plays the team with the worst qualifying record in the
conference, the second-best record plays against the second-worst team, and so on and so forth;
from there, the team that wins
the series continues through to
the next round until there is a
champion. The first round
series originally was a best-of5 series and all other rounds
pegged as best-of-7 series; in
2003 though the league
changed it so that the first
round also was expanded to a
best-of-7.
When the Charlotte
Bobcats (now Hornets) became the league’s 30th team in 20041 both NBA conferences, East and
West, were realigned to have 15 teams each and three divisions within each conference. In this
setup, it was also setup so that the winner of each division was guaranteed a top-three seed. The
other five seeds in each conference were open to the top five teams in terms of standings.
Starting in 2006, he top four seeds—the three division winners and the second-place team
with the best record—will be seeded according to their win-loss total, guaranteeing that the top
two teams in each conference can't meet until the conference finals2. This change was spurred
1
2
“The Origins of All 30 NBA Team Names.” Mental Floss. N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.
“NBA Announces Postseason Seeding Format Change.” ESPN.com. N.p., 2 Aug. 2006. Web.
28 Jan. 2016.
especially by when division rivals San Antonio and Dallas were forced to meet in the second
round of the Western Conference playoffs in 2005, even though the second-place Mavericks had
a far better record than division champions Phoenix or Denver2.
For the upcoming 2016 season playoffs, another change is being enacted. The NBA will
now seed teams 1-8 in each conference regardless of the division winners3. Now, the title of
division winner only comes into play as a second tiebreaker after head-to-head record. A new
spotlight was put on the issue when the Los Angeles Clippers met the San Antonio Spurs in a
thrilling first round series this postseason. The Spurs would have played the Memphis Grizzlies
in the first round if the seeds were determined by wins and losses, but they were instead stuck
playing Los Angeles because the Portland Trail Blazers were granted the No. 4 seed as a division
winner. The Blazers won 51 games while Memphis and San Antonio each won 553.
Current Situation
Recently, calls for even further restructuring have been made. Most, if not all, of all these
requests for a restructuring due to concerns of equity between the conferences. In November of
2014, outspoken owner of the Dallas Mavericks, Mark Cuban, suggests a conference realignment
that would result in a total of eight teams, including the Mavericks, switching conferences4. In
Cuban's plan, the Mavs, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans would
move to the Eastern Conference. The Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons and
Milwaukee Bucks would move to the West.
Another popular request is that the NBA completely abolish the conference system.
Critics cite statistics such as in 2014, according to Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System,
a measure that incorporates schedule strength, 10 of the top 13 teams in the NBA hail from the
Western Conference5.
3
O’Donnell, Ricky. “NBA Playoff Teams Will Now Be Seeded 1-8 regardless of Division
Winners.” SBNation.com. N.p., 8 Sept. 2015. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.
“Mavs’ Cuban: Realignment Could Benefit NBA.” ESPN.com. N.p., 27 Nov. 2014. Web. 28
Jan. 2016.
5
“Abolish the NBA’s Conference System.” ESPN.com. N.p., 28 Mar. 2014. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.
4
While popular as a suggestion, there are critiques of it. One of the biggest arguments is
that the conference system
simply cycles through which
conference is the better one.
For example, through much
of the 1980s and 1990s, the
East was the superior
conference due to players
like Michael Jordan, Patrick
Ewing, and Larry Bird.
Supporters of this argument
claim that the NBA will regularly cycle through which conference is better, and the East will
likely be the more competitive conference in a few years.
A tournament comprised of the best 16 NBA teams could also lack any squads from the
Boston-to-Washington area—a hot bed for major media markets5. The current setup makes it
easier for a underperforming Knicks team to slink into the playoffs and generate big-market buzz
for a couple of weeks. National interest in the Knicks losing badly can be expected to be much
higher than, for example, the somewhat competent Minnesota Timberwolves. Not only is the
average East market bigger than your average West market, but a West-heavy bracket could
complicate TV scheduling. It's difficult to stagger playoff games on the same day if everyone is
playing in the same time zone.
Beyond the standard proposals, some have embraced out-of-the-box solutions. One
example being teams having the ability to trade conference status as an asset. For example,
would the Clippers trade Chris Paul to be in the East? All that is known for sure is that with
something as high-stakes as playoff formatting, nothing is off the table.
Questions to Consider
1) Could the balance of power shift back to the East in a few years?
2) Which system would benefit your team the most long-term? Success-wise? Revenue-wise?
3) If the system needs to be restructured, would keeping the conferences and shifting the teams
be more effective or simply eliminating the conferences?
4) Are the divisions necessary to keep?
5) Is it important to consider the overall competition of the league rather than simply one’s short
term goals?
6) Should any restructuring of the playoffs be temporary or permanent?
Topic 2: Draft Lottery
At the heart of sports is continuing competition; and one way that teams can cycle back to
success is through the NBA Draft. The NBA draft is an annual event dating back to 1950 in
which the thirty teams from the National Basketball Association (NBA) can draft players who
are eligible and wish to join the league. These are usually college basketball players, but
international
players are also
eligible to be
drafted. College
players who have
finished their
four-year college
eligibility are
automatically
eligible for
selection;
underclassmen have to declare their eligibility and give up their remaining college eligibility if
they choose to enter the draft. International players who are at least 23 years old are
automatically eligible for selection, while the players younger than 22 have to declare their
eligibility. Beginning in 1989, the draft has consisted of two rounds; this is much shorter than the
entry drafts of the other major professional sports leagues, all of which run at least seven rounds.
Sixty players are selected in each draft. Finally, no player may sign with the NBA until he has
been eligible for at least one draft6.
In the past, high school players were also eligible to be selected. However, starting in the
2006 draft, newly graduated high school players were not eligible to enter the immediately. The
rules now state that high school players must wait one year after their high school graduation,
and they must also be at least 19 years old as of the end of the calendar year of the draft in order
6
National Basketball Association. “Player Eligibility and NBA Draft.” NBA.com. N.p., n.d.
Web.
to be eligible. Instead of attending a college, some players have opted to play basketball abroad
for a year.
In the earlier drafts, the teams would draft in reverse order of their win-loss record.
However, a special territorial-pick rule allowed a team to draft a player from its local area. If a
team decided to use its territorial pick, it forfeited its first-round pick in the draft. The territorial
pick rules remained until the NBA revamped the draft system in 19667.
In 1966 the NBA introduced a coin flip between the worst teams in each division to
determine who would obtain the first overall draft pick. The team who lost the coin flip would
get the second pick, while the rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of
the win-loss record. In this system, the second-worst team would never have a chance to obtain
the first pick if it was in the same division with the worst team. The coin flip meant that both
teams had an equal chance to draft first. The coin-flip system remained in operation until 19847.
After the 1984 coin flip the NBA introduced the lottery system to counter the accusations
that the Rockets and several other teams were deliberately losing their regular season games in
order to secure the worst record and consequently the chance to obtain the first pick8. The lottery
system involved a random drawing of an envelope from a hopper. Inside each of the envelopes
were the non-playoff team names. In this system, each non-playoff team had an equal chance to
obtain the first pick. The rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of the
win-loss record.
Starting from 1987, the NBA modified the lottery system so that only the first three picks
were determined by the lottery. After the three envelopes were drawn, the remaining non-playoff
teams would select in reverse order of their win-loss record. This meant that the team with the
worst record could receive no worse than the fourth selection, the second-worst team could pick
no lower than fifth, and so on.
The New York Knicks were the first winner of the lottery in 1985. They selected
Georgetown University standout Patrick Ewing with their first overall pick. However,
7
8
Dengate, Jeff. “Let the Ping Pong Ball Fall.” NBA.com. N.p., 24 May 2005. Web.
DuPree, David. “25 Drafts, Dozens of Stars, One Michael.” USA Today. N.p., 25 June 2007.
Web.
speculation arose that the NBA had rigged the lottery so that the Knicks would be assured to get
the first pick8. Even though the envelope system was highly criticized, it was used until 1989.
In 1990, the NBA changed the format of the lottery to give the team with the worst record
the best chance of landing the first pick. For the 11 non-playoff teams that season, the team with
the worst record would have an 11/66 chance to obtain the first pick, the second worst would
have 10/66, and so
on. Similarly to the
previous system, this
weighted lottery
system was also used
only to determine the
first three picks,
while the rest of the
teams selected in
reverse order of their
win-loss records.
In October
1993, the NBA modified the lottery system to give the team with the worst record a higher
chance to win the draft lottery and to decrease the better teams' chances to win. The new system
increased the chances of the worst team obtaining the first pick in the draft from 16.7 percent to
25 percent, while decreasing the chances of the best non-playoff team from 1.5 percent to 0.5
percent.
In the new system, 14 numbered table tennis balls were used. Then, a four-number
combination from the 14 balls were drawn to determine the lottery winner. Prior to the draft, the
NBA assigns 1,000 possible combinations to the non-playoff teams. The process was then
repeated to determine the second and third pick7.
On Wednesday, October 22, 2014 the NBA Board of Governors voted on a proposed
reform to the lottery9. If the changes passed, the four worst teams in the league would have been
9
Insiders, Basketball. “Lottery Reform Vote Set to Pass? | Basketball Insiders | NBA Rumors
And Basketball News.” N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.
given identical odds—around 11 percent—at receiving the first pick in the draft. The fifth team
would have a 10 percent chance, and the odds would decrease for each team picking after10. The
proposed changes would work to keep teams competitive throughout the entire season. The final
vote was 17-13 in favor of the reform, but that was short of the required 23 votes needed11.
Current Situation
Although a recent proposal was voted down, other ideas have been floated around the
league. There have been several ideas for changing the lottery system, such as returning to the
previous system of giving all 14 non-playoff teams equal chances of winning the top pick12.
Celtics
assistant general
manager Mike Zarren
suggested a “wheel”
concept, in which all
30 teams occupy each
of the 30 draft slots
over a 30-year period
to create competitive
balance12. Each team
would simply cycle
through the 30 draft slots, year by year, in a predetermined order designed so that teams pick in
different areas of the draft each year13. Teams would know with 100 percent certainty in which
Highkin, Sean. “Report: Board of Governors Expected to Pass Draft Lottery Reform, Sixers
and Thunder Opposed.” N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.
11
“NBA Fails to Pass Anti-Tanking Lottery Reform.” ESPN.com. N.p., 22 Oct. 2014. Web. 28
Jan. 2016.
12
Washburn, Gary. “NBA Commissioner: Draft Lottery System Will Not Change.”
BostonGlobe.com. N.p., 11 Sept. 2005. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.
13
Lowe, Zach. “The NBA’s Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-Bye to the Lottery, Hello to
the Wheel.” Grantland. N.p., 23 Dec. 2013. Web. 28 Jan. 2016
10
draft slots they would pick every year, up to 30 years out from the start of every 30-year cycle.
The practice of protecting picks would also disappear13.
Another option, a fan-inspired idea, is the “You’re the Worst!” draft14. In this novel plan,
on the day before the regular season began, selection order for the YTW draft would be
determined like any standard reverse-order draft—the team that had the worst win-loss record in
the previous season would pick first, the team that had the best record would pick last. But the
teams wouldn’t be drafting players. They’d be choosing the rights to another team’s position in
the next NBA draft14.
Questions to Consider
1) How is the best way to stop incentivize “tanking”?
2) Is “tanking” something that we want stopped?
3) Does my team prefer the status quo to any alternative?
4) What is a novel idea that can benefit my team?
14
Stevenson, Seth. “The NBA Draft Is Broken.” Slate 13 May 2015. Slate. Web. 28 Jan. 2016.