Pushing the Limits
Keynote Address
International Association of Hydrogeologists
By
Prof. Anthony Turton
Vice President: International Water Resource Association
bronwyn@speakersinc.co.za
www.anthonyturton.com
© AR Turton, 2009
Layout of Presentation
• An Overview of Water
– The Water Scarcity phenomenon
– Population growth as a factor
• The Role of Groundwater
• Specific Challenges
– Groundwater Recharge
• Pushing the Limits
– Water and Energy Nexus
• Conclusion
World Water Scarcity 1990
Water scarcity is related to population growth as much
as it is related to environmental factors
World Water Scarcity 2020
Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both
pass into extreme stress because of population growth
World Water Scarcity 2050
Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo
as extremely stressed systems
World Water Scarcity 2070
At this stage the most economically active portion of
Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa
Role of Groundwater
• Most eloquent case has been made by
Prof. Pete Ashton at the CSIR.
– The Thunder Graph
• Technology becomes the key issue.
• The question is, can society mobilize
enough technology?
– The issue of development as a constraint
• Homer-Dixon’s Thesis
– The Ingenuity Gap as a concept
Water Demand in South Africa
80
?
Water demand (Billion m3 / Year)
Requires new sources of water (? Imports)
+ radical changes to water use patterns
60
Total surface water + groundwater resources
+ maximum recycling
(Requires new water storage
and treatment technologies)
40
Surface water + some groundwater
+ some recycling
(Existing technology)
Low water
use estimate
[No change in
per capita use]
20
0
1965
© P.J. Ashton
1985
2005
Years
Possible
extension of
time with
intensive WC
and WDM
2025
2045
Ingenuity Gap as a Concept
• Technical Ingenuity is the capacity to solve
complex technical problems facing society
• Social Ingenuity is the national capacity to
create incentives for the generation of
Technical Ingenuity
• Thomas Homer-Dixon (2000) and his team
found that Social Ingenuity is a precursor
to Technical Ingenuity
• Poor countries stay poor because of their
failure to mobilize enough Social Ingenuity
• Social Ingenuity is determinant
Social Ingenuity
Creates Incentives and
an Enabling Environment
For Technical Ingenuity
To Solve Complex
Problems facing Society
Homer-Dixon, 2000.
The South African Ingenuity Gap
(After Homer-Dixon (2000))
Qty
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Demand for
Technical
Ingenuity
South Africa has a
classic Ingenuity Gap
in the water sector
The one sector that
limits our future
economic growth
potential
1910
Source: Turton (2008)
1966
1985
2008
?
Current
Ingenuity
Gap
?
Supply of
Technical
Ingenuity
Time
Specific Challenges
• If Ingenuity is a critical success factor,
then what are we doing about it?
• Social Ingenuity – how are we
incentivizing scientists, researchers and
practitioners?
• Technical Ingenuity – what new ideas
are coming forward?
• How can we make things happen?
Groundwater Recharge
• Australia is highly water constrained
• All future development is dependent on
solving this core issue that has two
components:
– How to generate New Water?
– How to do better things with Old Water?
• Water Utility Corporation of Perth
– Beenyup Project
Water Corporation of Perth
Water as a Flux
• The Perth approach is based on seeing
water as a flux rather than a stock.
• It involves a whole new mindset that has
to be changed at every level
of
society.
Evaporation
Precipitation
Runoff
Water as a Flux
In this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and
multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource.
Recycling Process
Water
Effluent
Business
Energy
Raw Materials
Product
Process
So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of
network thinking in which it is cascaded around the
economy with the number of new process cycles
limited only by our ingenuity and technological
capacity as a nation.
Wealth
Water as a Flux
In this model a network of processes unlocks the
maximum value from water and multiplies the
initially perceived finite nature of the resource.
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of
network thinking in which it is cascaded around the
economy with the number of new process cycles
limited only by our ingenuity and technological
capacity as a nation.
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Recharge and New Water
• Because evaporation is our biggest
limiting factor in terms of development ...
• Any reduction in that evaporation is of
prime significance.
• While the continental MAR:MAP
conversion is 20%, the Limpopo and
Orange conversion is 5.1%.
• Reducing evaporation therefore means
creating New Water.
• Mine voids?
Acid Mine Drainage in
Gauteng
Vertical
Shaft
Surface
strata
The volume of the mine void under the
Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume
of Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss with new thinking and political will this can
become a major source of New Water
Dolomites
Ore-bearing
strata
Workings
Safety drive
Eastern
Basin
Dyke
Central
Basin
Dyke
Western
Basin
Pushing the Limits
• Water and Energy Nexus.
• SADC has had cheap electricity for too
long, but this is about to change.
• Both Water and Energy have properties
that make them a Flux.
• Two exciting new technological
developments
– Ground Source Heat Pumps (Passive)
– Geothermal Energy for Desalination (Active)
Geothermal Energy as a Concept
Ground Source Heat Pumps
This is mature
technology that has
been in existence for
over 25 years
It has been excluded
from the SADC region
because of the cheap
cost of electricity
The COP of a typical
American unit is 4 and
that of a European unit
can be up to 12
Ground Source Heat Pumps
This uses a confined aquifer that
has a seasonal temperature
differential of just 8°C.
Active Geothermal Energy
Do we have the technical
capacity to model thermal
gradients in our aquifer systems
to provide drilling targets?
Binary Plant
Does the mobile belt between
the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe
Craton have enough decaying
Uranium to become a viable
heat source at shallower depth?
Geothermal Desalination (MSF)
A – Suction Ejectors
B & C – Sea Water Cooling
D – Freshwater Outlet
E – Feedstock Inlet
F – Brine Outlet
The first commercial
MSF plant was installed
on the island of Kimolos
in Greece
The geothermal source
is a flow of 60 m³/hr at a
temperature of 62°C
from a bore 188 m deep
Significant technical
improvements are
currently under
development
The production is 80 m³
per day at a cost of ≤1.6
Euro / m³
Larger scale
commercial plants will
have an improved
efficiency and thus a
lower cost
Conclusion
• Hydrogeology in the SADC region can
play a leading role in development.
• Groundwater recharge should become a
strategic initiative with appropriate funding
and institutional support.
• Geothermal energy has a natural synergy
with hydrogeology, so we need to start
building capacity in this field.
• Geothermal Energy Association of
Southern Africa has just been formed.
Thank You
Groundwater
Recharge is a
Priority
Geothermal
Energy has a
Future