Value for Money in Environmental Policy and Environmental Economics David Pannell Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy Problems with the salinity policy Selection of projects Delivery mechanisms Design of projects Objectives Internal logic Focus on outcomes Observations The problems of the salinity program occur in many other programs and agencies Cause enormous loss of environmental benefits Readily avoidable (some trivially easy) Low awareness Why value for money is important Limited resources for environmental actions Salinity program: Full mitigation cost: $1.4 billion $65 billion Achieving significant outcomes can be expensive Gippsland Lakes, Australia Target 40% reduction in nutrients over 25 years Budget: PV $30m Min cost: PV $1000m Why value for money is important Heterogeneity among potential investments Values at stake Threats Feasibility Time lags Adoption/ compliance Project risks Costs 100000 Huge range of benefits and costs 1000 Benefit 10 Best 5% = BCR 330 times better than median 0.1 0.001 0.00001 0.0000001 1 100 10000 1000000 Cost Source: Fuller et al. (2010). Nature 100000000 1E+10 Questions 1. What is required for public environmental programs to deliver value for money? 2. What can economists do to increase the chance that investment in environmental economics analysis provides value for money? Value for money from investment in environmental programs 1. Be selective Target resources to the best investments Which environmental issues? In which places? Which people to involve? “Best” = expected to provide most valuable environmental benefits 2. Focus on outcomes Decisions about project priorities, project design, program design, should explicitly consider the environmental outcomes likely to be achieved Very commonly, programs don’t do so beyond a superficial level e.g. most agri-environmental programs e.g. Environmental Stewardship program Entry-level scheme has 200 “priority options” e.g. permanent grassland with very low inputs legume- and herb-rich swards uncropped cultivated areas for ground-nesting birds Outcomes? Program indicates type of environmental benefits e.g. dragonflies, newts, toads, bats, dormice, soil erosion Ideally, allocate funds to actions/places most valuable environmental outcomes Would need to account for How many extra bats? How much improved water quality? How much does the community care? It’s hard, but more effort needed Implication for programs Focus on actions rather than outcomes means that most funded projects are not great 100000 1000 Benefit 10 0.1 0.001 0.00001 0.0000001 1 100 10000 1000000 Cost 100000000 1E+10 Implication for programs A suggested strategy: start with outcomes you want and work backwards Outcome: Reduce frequency of algal blooms in Gippsland Lakes from 1 year in 3 to 1 in 10 by 2025 Working backwards: What on-ground actions would be required to achieve that target? Where? How much? What policy actions would be required to bring about those onground actions? Cost? Value for money? 3. Consider all relevant info Bio-physical factors Condition without (current condition, future threats) Effectiveness of management Time lags (in threats, in response to actions) Project risks (technical) Socio-economic factors Importance of the environmental values Adoption/compliance level Time lag (adoption) Discount rate Project risks (social, political, financial) Implications for programs If you leave some out, project prioritisation can be greatly weakened Most programs that do prioritise miss several out values effect of on-ground actions adoption/compliance maintenance costs time lags 4. Use a sound metric The most common metric used to rank projects is weighted additive Score = w1.x1 + w2.x2 + w3.x3 + w4.x4 + … Where x1 = environmental threats x2 = project risk x3 = adoption x4 = project cost etc. Implications for programs Very poor rankings Implies you can compensate for having no adoption by having low technical risk, but you can’t Where benefits are proportional to a variable, it should be multiplied, not added To max benefits, must divide by cost, not subtract it Logic leads to a very different metric Can make huge difference to environmental benefits ultimately achieved Comparing project rankings R2 = 0.7% Project rank using weighted additive metric 100 90 Cost divided 80 70 Favours cheap projects 60 50 40 Of best 16 only 1 is actually best 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 Loss 50% (5% budget) Project rank that maximises environ benefits 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Easy to fix 5. Comparing scale/intensity Typically only one scale/intensity is considered for a project But value for money can be highly sensitive to scale/intensity Diminishing marginal benefits Width of riparian buffer strips in Germany (Sieber et al. 2010, Land Use Policy) 3m wide: 61% reduction in pesticides in river 30m wide: 94% reduction 50m wide: 96% reduction Technical vs psychological 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Benefits 0 10 20 Scale 30 Increasing marginal costs 1200 Cost ($A millions) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 % redn in P into lakes BCR: 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.04 6. Select good policy mechanism Salinity policy: spent most of its money on extension Promoted practices that were not adoptable on the required scale Needed a simple tool to help people think through the choice of mechanism Public: Private Benefits Framework Definitions “Private benefits & costs” relate to the landholder making the decisions (internal) “Public benefits & costs”: all others (external) neighbours, downstream water users, city dwellers interested in biodiversity Each dot is a set of land-use changes on specific pieces of land = a project. Which tool? • Incentives • Extension • Regulation • New technology • No action Perennials Farm B Public net benefits Possible projects 0 Current practice Perennials Farm A Private net benefits Forestry in water catchment Simple rules for allocating mechanisms to projects 1. No positive incentives for landuse change unless public net benefits of change are positive. A 3. No positive incentives if overall costs outweigh overall benefits. B Public net benefit 2. No positive incentives if landholders would adopt land-use changes without those incentives. F 0 C E D Private net benefit Win/Small loss Win/ Large loss Positive incentives or technology change Public net benefit Simple public-private benefits framework Win/Win Technology change (or no action) Extension No action 0 Private net benefit Small loss/ No action (or Win flexible negative incentives) No action (or extension or negative incentives) Negative incentives Loss/Loss Large loss/ Win Pannell (2008) Land Economics 7. Other Review proposed projects for accuracy, logic Monitoring, learning, adaptation (uncertainty) Training and support for decision makers Incentives for environmental managers to pursue outcomes Remove incentives that conflict with that What vs How? Both 1. Be selective (what) 2. Outcomes (what and how) 3. All info (what) 4. Metric (what) 5. Scale (how) 6. Mechanism (how) 7. Logic (how) Value for money from investment in environmental economics Observations Huge potential Largely unrealised We could do better Apply economic principles to thinking about which economics research to do Getting it across better 1. Optimising portfolio of EE Many information products to choose from: non-market values market values human behaviour (e.g. adoption of new practices) risk, uncertainty environmental production functions discount rates time lags costs curves transaction costs policy mechanism choice mechanism design metric design Policy agencies as consumers Optimal portfolio determined by 𝑀𝑈1 𝑀𝑈2 𝑀𝑈𝑖 = =⋯= 𝑃1 𝑃2 𝑃𝑖 We should not concentrate on production of too few information products. Produce enough of each product for an optimal consumption bundle. Do we comply with that? Some info products relatively well-supplied non-market values discount rates Others much less so costs vs scale transaction costs environmental production functions (effectiveness of management) human behavioural responses to policy metric design 2. Optimise depth/sophistication Fertilizer: maximum profit maximum yield $ 900 800 Max yield Max profit 700 Revenue 600 500 400 Cost 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Fertilizer rate Information: max net benefit maximum detail or sophistication (diminishing marginal benefits) 1000 $ OK NMVs studies 900 Focus Benefit groups Expert transfer judgement Benefits 800 700 600 Excellent NMVs studies 500 400 Cost 300 200 100 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Info depth/sophistication Approximate information might be optimal for decision making (depending on context) Also more timely, less challenging 3. Recognise users’ limitations Most are not economists Easily psyched out by economics Another reason for simple information Need help to see how to use economics information in their decisions – it’s not obvious Training and support Cultural change INFFER Investment Framework for Environmental Resources INFFER Addresses the identified common weaknesses Outcome-oriented (works backwards) Includes all key bio-physical and socio-economic variables Theoretically sound metric to rank projects Includes Public: Private Benefits Framework Asks “consistency check” questions to get the logic right Can cope with expert judgement or high-quality scientific information Simplifications – usable by non-economists Structured, documented, supported, training Asset types Wetland •Listed on register •Last of its type River reach •Intact native veg •Cultural heritage •Woodland birds Fauna species •Flagship •Critically endangered Native vegetation •Concentration of threatened species •Near pristine condition •Important location Before INFFER After INFFER Regional application International application Final comments It’s possible to embed economics thinking in environmental organisations/agencies Many challenges Culture, timeliness, transaction costs, communications, aversion to the results, attitudes to economics Enormous opportunities to deliver greater environmental outcomes – worth the effort Keen to support a UK pilot of INFFER inffer.org pannelldiscussions.net