VAAL RIVER SYSTEM TARIFF: PRESENTATIONWater TITLE Requirement DWS Long-term Scenarios Presented by: Name Surname Directorate Presentation to Rand Water Forum Date Venue: Rand Water Tendayi Makombe on behalf of Seef Rademeyer 14 October 2015 1 Integrated Vaal River System Existing Transfer Schemes Proposed Transfer Schemes Mokolo Catchment Transfers relevant to VRESS Vaal Catchment Crocodile Catchment Linkages with Crocodile & Mokolo Growth areas Mokolo Catchment Urban Mining Proposed Transfer Crocodile West Catchment Vaal Catchment Treated Urban Return Flows Continental divide Transfer from Vaal River via. Rand Water System 3 Lephalale Water Balance Mokolo Crocodile Water Augmentation Project (Phase 2) Water Requirements and Water Availability 250 Lephalale water transfer requirements (July 2012) With 15 and 20% conveyance losses 200 Volume (million m3/a) 150 100 50 Critical period 0 2014 Water available in the Crocodile for transfer Transfer to Lephalale 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Water available_Alternative Scenario Water available_Base Scenario Water transfer requirements (20% conveyance losses) Water Transfer requirements (15% conveyance losses) 2042 2044 • Water in Crocodile after supplying Lephalale Lephalale Water Requirment Projection 120 100 80 60 mcm/a 40 20 0 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 -20 -40 -60 Additional Surplus available_Alternative Scenario Additional Surplus available_Base Scenario 2044 2046 2048 2050 6 Implications of AMD RUSTENBURG Vaal Barrage Vaal Bloemhof Dam Katse Mohale Proposed Polihali Dam Acid Mine Drainage Management Option • 2012: Mines voids filling (no mine water discharge) • 2014: AMD neutralisation, discharge and dilution • 2021: AMD desalination and reuse 7 Bloemhof Dam Storage AMD: Benefits of desalination 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2012 Excessive Spills & Wastage 99 % 100 % 99.5 % 2016 2020 No desalination 2024 Desalinate AMD 8 Bloemhof Dam Storage Boxplots derived from 1000 sequences 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2012 Excess Storage 2028 2032 Months 2036 2040 2044 2048 (Planning Year: May to April) Desalination and reuse 2016 2020 2024 Boxplots derived from 1000 sequences 2028 2032 Months 2036 2040 2044 2048 (Planning Year: May to April) COMPLEX ISSUES • Dynamic area with huge growth in water requirements and we need to sustain water for social and economic activities • Complex infrastructure system • Efficient use of scarce resource important • All users contribute to the effluent and complex water quality issues • We need to ensure there will be enough water for this important area 9 Background to the Integrated Vaal River studies • Various studies were done over many years • It culminated in the Vaal River Reconciliation Strategy Study • Stakeholders participation in Steering Committee is continuing • Strategy is presented at various stakeholder workshops 10 FUTURE OPTIONS TO RECONCILE Focus of Vaal Reconciliation Strategy Study: • Options for augmentation limited • Need to balance supply and demand • Develop strategies (scenario based) to meet growing water requirements • Find best reconciliation solution i.t.o. – Least cost (to end user) – Long term vision – Maximize future flexibility • Involvement of stakeholders 11 Strategic Interventions Ensuring that sufficient water is available to supply the future requirements of the Vaal River System requires a multi pillar strategy: • Eradication of unlawful water use by 2015 (2014) • Continue with the Implementation of WC/WDM (Project 15%) – achieve target savings by 2017 (2015) • Implement Phase 2 of LHWP by 2023 (May 2024) (2020) • Mine water effluent treatment and use by 2020/21 (2018) • Tshwane Water Augmentation Project (Re-use) • Plan yield replacement scheme in Orange • Manage uncertainties: Vaal, Crocodile and Olifants • Implementation of Integrated Water Quality Management Plan 12 Rand Water Supply Area Scenarios (2015) 2300 2200 2100 Rand Water Projection (October 2014) 2000 Water Requirements ( million m3/annum ) 1900 1800 1700 Rand Water (2003) 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 WC/WDM & Tshwane Reuse Historical Water Use 1100 1000 Dashed lines from January 2014 SSC 900 800 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Historic water use RW (2003 Questionnaire) VR No WC/WDM_Jan14 Years VR WC/WDM_Jan14 13 RW_Oct_2014 RW_Oct_2014_WDM_Reuse Water Requirements (2015) (Net System Water Requirements) 14 Net Water Requirements (million m3/annum) 3800 3600 • • High Water Requirements Unlawful Removed 3400 3200 3000 • • • • 2800 High Water Requirement Scenario Water Conservation and Demand Management Unlawful Removed Re-use (Tshwane) 2600 2400 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Dotted Lines = January 2014 Analysis 14 2050 Reconciliation Perspective High with target WC/WDM Desalination for urban use • • • • Yield / Water Requirements (million m3/a) 3800 Unlawful removed High water requirement Unlawful removed WC/WDM Tshwane re-use • • Re-use (Tshwane ) High water requirement Unlawful removed 3600 3400 Short term availability due to current reservoir volumes LHWP Phase II Yield (Polihali Dam) 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2005 Yield increases due to desalination of mine water System Yield 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 First transfer from LHWP Phase II 15 2050 Reconciliation Perspectives Water Conservation and Water Demand Management, eradication of unlawful use, desalination and re-use of mine water as well as Tshwane re-use project are all essential to maintain balance until LHWP Phase 2 can be implemented 16 Top Management Support – Approval of long-term AMD management option – Exert pressure on municipalities to achieve water saving targets – Expedite decisions relating LWHP Phase 2 implementation – Support the re-use initiative by Tshwane – Approve resources for infrastructure maintenance activities – Promote and support development and operational planning Total System Storage Trajectory Mohale Dam included VAAL RIVER TARIFF CALCULATION (2015) INFORMATION SUPPLIED TO TCTA 19 Scenario Descriptions (1/2) • Scenario I (Low) – RW area: High population scenario (in view of 2014/15 actual use) with WC/WDM implemented and achieved. – Assume moderate levels of drought restrictions to be implemented over the medium term – Assume 85% of deemed unlawful irrigation is removed from 2015 onwards – based on 2014 information – Eskom tariff scenario April 2015 – All other users as determined for the 2015/16 Annual Operating Analysis • Scenario II (Medium) – Same as Sc I, but … – Assume some WC/WDM achievement – Assume minimal levels of drought restrictions to be implemented over the medium term 20 Scenario Descriptions (2/2) • Scenario III (High) – RW area: High population scenario (in view of 2014/15 actual use) with no further WC/WDM savings implemented – Assume unlawful irrigation is not removed and stay unchanged as at 2014 levels – Eskom high scenario April 2015 – All other users as determined for the 2015/16 Annual Operating Analysis 21 Water Requirement Scenarios 22 System Balance: Tariff Scenario I 23 System Balance: Tariff Scenario II 24 System Balance: Tariff Scenario III 25 Thank you! Any Questions? 26