10 : Managing the Budget Estimating is like witchcraft: it involves foretelling situations about which little is known Brian Fine © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 1 Managing the Budget • • • • • levels of accuracy in project budgets developing a budgetary system using the PBS to control the budget using the WBS to control the budget budget overruns and escalating commitments © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 2 Levels of Accuracy in Project Budgets • the problem of uncertainty – the central estimate and distribution • the accuracy of data sets – sampling problems – site specificity – prices hide cost drivers • the pioneer process plant study – 44 projects © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 3 The Changing Accuracy of Estimates 30% scheme design 20% tender 10% central estimate brief © Graham M Winch definition description Riding the Project Life-cycle final account 0% completed building Budget Estimating Accuracy The Pioneer Process Plant Study Project phase end (see chapter 9 for phase definitions) Brief Definition Description Trade package Completion (by definition) © Graham M Winch Conventional wisdom accuracy level ±% 30 20 10 5 0 Riding the Project Life-cycle on Estimated cost as a proportion of actual cost for 44 projects % 62 78 83 93 100 5 Developing a Budgetary System • the product breakdown structure – components • the work breakdown structure – tasks © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 6 The Product Breakdown Structure universities D721:2 core fabric D721:G311:G251 facing bricks G251:L321:1:2 copings G251:L324:3 roofs D721:2:G24 roof edges G24:G34 rooflights D721:G321:G24 roof coverings G24:G312 guttering G34:L731:4:2 skylights G24:L414:5 downpipes D721:G58:1:2 siphonic drains G58:1:2:L731:4:7 roof membranes G312:L524:2 roof cladding G312:L522:1 thermal insulation G312:L681:5:1 © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 7 The Work Breakdown Structure universities D721:2 roofs D721:2:G24 brick/block walling G24:2:JF1 profiled cladding G24:2:JH3 brick/block walling JF1:JF10 © Graham M Winch waterprooring G24:2:JJ4 metal cladding JH3:JH31 single ply JJ4:JJ41 sundry insulation JH3:JP1:JP10 sundry insulation JJ41:JP1:JP10 windows G24:JL1 rooflights JL1:Jl11 drainage G24:JR1 rainwater goods JR1:JR10 Riding the Project Life-cycle scaffolding G24:M31 facade scaffolding M31:M312:3 sundry insulation G24 : JP1 sundry insulation JP1:JP10 supsended scaffold M31:M312:6 8 Using the PBS to Control the Budget • the cost planning – benchmarking against similar projects – budget baseline establishment • the cost planning hierarchy © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 9 The Cost Planning Hierarchy cost/bed cost/seat cost/pupil unit rate ratio analysis © Graham M Winch cost/m2 gross area wall/floor ratio gross/net space ratio elemental cost flooring/m2 roofing/m2 facade/m2 bill of quantities 1000 m2 Penryhn slate Riding the Project Life-cycle 10 Value Engineering and Cost Management • target costing • the value engineering process – external audit by a third party – the VE workshop • the problem of estimating accuracy • the problem of incentives © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 11 Constructability • ensuring the design can be built – the constructability audit – incentive alignment and variantes • process capability – – – – dimensional accuracy skills and equipment programme quality management • the process capability trade-off © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 12 The Process Capability Trade-off cost of investment in improved process capability income from asset exploitation OR savings in costs of operation and maintenance © Graham M Winch return on investment in process capability project budget 13 Using the WBS to Control the Budget • tasks at the weekly level • the cost breakdown structure – labour – materials – plant • the organisational breakdown structure – assigning task execution to resource bases © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 14 Controlling the Budget • cost accounts – relate to OBS • the cost account plan • the performance measurement baseline © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 15 The Performance Measurement Baseline target price profit negotiated target cost agreed variations contingency performance measurement baseline cost accounts work packages © Graham M Winch undistributed budget planning packages 16 time Earned Value Analysis • relating budget to programme • earned value (EV) : invoicable work to date • actual cost: actual expenditure to date (AC) – budget variance (AV) = EV - AC • planned value : what ought to have been spent (PV or Project Performance Baseline) – programme variance (SV) = EV - PV • the cost performance index (CPI) – EV/AC – productivity • programme performance index – EV/PV © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 17 Earned Value Analysis time now, t PV 100 AC spend to date % complete AV SV progress to date © Graham M Winch 0 EV 18 time Budget Overruns and Escalating Commitments • why do budgets overrun? – poor estimating – regulatory constraints • the dynamic of escalation - why not cancel? – – – – admission of failure credible commitments live in hope provides for some income stream • project management tactics © Graham M Winch Riding the Project Life-cycle 19