Presentation
CALED “Smart Buildings”
Ken Dozier
Far West RTTC
11/07/01
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The Future
“When the Rate of Change Outside is
Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside,
The End Is In Sight”
Jack Welch, Chairmen General Electric
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What is Knowledge ?
Truth
Universal
Knowledge
Belief
Social
Personal
No Debate
Converge on debate
Diverge on debate
Effect
Cause
Cause
10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)
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The Future
“Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances”
Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957
“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with
18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons,
computer in the the future may have only
1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons”
“There is no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home”
- Ken Olson, president and
founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings
to be seriously considered as a means of
communication. The device is inherently of
no value to us”
“The problem with television is that the people
must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen;
The average American family hasn’t time for it”
- New York Times, 1949
- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876
“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly
supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ”
- Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995
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Velocity
“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of
the high-tech items they manufacture today
did not exist 10 months ago”
Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency
“Startups are now expected to go public
within 6-18 months after venture investment”
Donna Jensen, Founder and CEO of startups.com
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Industry Clusters
Industry
Cluster
Electronic
Key Export
Oriented
Firms
Key Supplier
Oriented
Firms
Key Economic
Infrastructure
Providers
Consumer
Electronic
Assembly
Tool, Die &
Machinery
Education &
Training
Institutions
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
Computer
Hardware
Assembly
Office &
Production
Supply
Specialized
Component
Supply
Physical
Infrastructure
Providers
Financial and
Regulatory
Institutions
– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries
in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving
strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared
foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built
around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a
region an help drive the regions economic growth.
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Industry Clusters
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
Automotive
Business Services
Home and Lifestyle
Products
Agriculture and
Food Processing
Aerospace/Defense
Info/Media and
Entertainment
Fashion, Apparel and
Textiles
Energy and
Process
Materials
Industrial
Machinery
Educational
Services
Health Services
Forest Products
Electronics Machinery
and Systems
Tourism and
Recreation
Metals
Bio-Medical
Products
Financial Services
Construction
Products
Transportation and
Distribution
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Industry Clusters
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)
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Industry Clusters
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
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The Evolution of Industry
Theme Parks
Motion Pictures
Motion Pictures
Television
Computer
Peripherals
Aviation
Electronics
Defense
Instruments
Defense
Aviation
Defense
Aerospace
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
Theme Parks/
Tourism
Visual Media
Production
Professional
Services
Multimedia
Technology
Engineering
Services
Commercial
Aviation
Technology-Based
Metal
Products
General
Manufacturing
Food
Processing
General
Manufacturing
Information
Processing
Agriculture
Information
Processing
Business
Services
Automobile
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
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EZ and Incubator Spatial Distribution
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Traditional Entrepreneurship
• Typical Waterfall model
• Six Stages
– basic research, development research,
product and process ideas, prototype,
production, diffusion
• Criticisms
– Too much focus on the solution “push”
– basic research not the only initiator stage
– relationship between research and
commercialization is too complex to be linear
– Users are the key “pull” to the problems and
markets
Sung 2001
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New Non-Linear Model
• 2001 study of startup companies across: Software
telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and
Semi-conductors (10.8%)
• Innovation: research (12%), development ( 22%),
application stage (57%), production (9%)
• Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)
• Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non
Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)
• Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35%
commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce,
17% education)
• Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan,
leadership, technical skills, management skills, and
location
Sung 2001
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The Non-Linear
Drivers
Gates
Jobs
Clark
Clark
“Microsoft”
“Apple”
“SGI”
“Netscape”
Developers
Xerox
Xerox
E&S, Stanford
University of
Illinois
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Make & Sell vs Sense & Respond
Chabol (large companies)
hierarchy, products based, (push)
Federal Agencies, SBIR:
Mission Based, Linear (push)
Universities: Curiosity
Based, emerging, (push)
Venture: Niche markets,
Incubators and Science Parks
created to bridge gap between
development and commercialization
public trading (pull)
Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate
ETTC
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Media Bandwidth
Source: 1999 Fall Meeting,
Community Development Council, Chuck Matthews
INFOWORLD, Sept. 2000
ATM
Gigabit Ethernet
IEEE 1394 / Firewire
LASER / Fast Ethernet
10BaseT / CAT 5
Microwave /
Ethernet
G3 / Wireless LAN
DSL/ Cable
G2 Wireless
G1 Wireless
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Smart Building Project
The connection point in each cubicle / office
• ATM to the desktop.
• A coaxial and fiber optic connection for next
generation high-speed bandwidth requirements
like streaming video and distributive computing.
• Additional Ethernet ports for multiple connection.
• The 6 packs
• 4 Category 7 cable
• 1 Fiber Optic
• 1 Coax Cable
• Energy and Efficiency
Image courtesy of Johnson Controls
ETTC
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Market Redefinition:Radical Change
Seven Organizational Change Propositions, Venkatraman 1994
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Solutions for Content Distribution
Satellite
Cable
Terrestrial
Internet
DSL
Wireless
Encrypted IP
Encryptor
IP Gateway
Content
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Security Solutions for Data Broadcasting
Network operation Center
Content Aggregator
Rural Infrastructure
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Solutions for Digital Cinema
Encrypted IP
Encryptor
IP Gateway
Picture Studios
File Servers
Digital Projector
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6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce
Decentralization
Despacialization
Denationalization
Disaggregation
Demassification
Disintermediation
Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild
ETTC
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Global Competition
•3
Finland
• 4 Luxembourg
•5 Netherlands
•6 Hong Kong
•7 Ireland
•8 Sweden
•9 Canada
•10 Switzerland
Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International
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For more information, please visit our website at:
http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC
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