• Cognitive Bias
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List of biases in judgment and decision making - Common theoretical causes of
some cognitive biases
A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article
suggested that at least eight seemingly
unrelated biases can be produced by the
same information-theoretic generative
mechanism that assumes noisy information
processing during storage and retrieval of
information in human memory.Martin Hilbert
(2012) [http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/201127261-001 Toward a synthesis of cognitive
biases: How noisy information processing
can bias human decision making]
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Cognitive bias
Thus, cognitive biases may
sometimes lead to perceptual
distortion, inaccurate judgment,
illogical interpretation, or what is
broadly called irrationality.Baron, J
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Cognitive bias
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Other cognitive biases are a “by-product”
of human processing limitations, resulting
from a lack of appropriate mental
mechanisms (bounded rationality), or
simply from a limited capacity for
information processing.
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Cognitive bias
Moreover, Kahneman and Tversky
(1996) argue cognitive biases have
efficient practical implications for areas
including clinical judgment.
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Cognitive bias - Overview
The notion of cognitive biases was
introduced by Amos Tversky and
Daniel Kahneman in 1972 and grew
out of their experience of people's
Numeracy#Innumeracy|innumeracy,
or inability to reason intuitively with
the greater orders of magnitude
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Cognitive bias - Overview
Alternatively, critics of Kahneman and
Tversky such as Gerd Gigerenzer argue
that heuristics should not lead us to
conceive of human thinking as riddled with
irrational cognitive biases, but rather to
conceive rationality as an adaptive tool
that is not identical to the rules of formal
logic or the probability calculus
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Cognitive bias - Types
Some cognitive biases belong to the
subgroup of attentional biases which refer
to the paying of increased attention to
certain stimuli. It has been shown, for
example, that people addicted to alcohol
and other drugs pay more attention to
drug-related stimuli. Common
psychological tests to measure those
biases are the Stroop Task and the Dotprobe paradigm|Dot Probe Task.
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Cognitive bias - Types
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The following is a list of
the more commonly
studied cognitive biases:
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Cognitive bias - Types
A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article suggests that at least 8
seemingly unrelated biases can be produced by the same
information-theoretic generative mechanism.Martin Hilbert (2012)
[http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2011-27261-001 Toward a synthesis
of cognitive biases: How noisy information processing can bias
human decision making] Psychological Bulletin 138(2), 211–237;
free access to the study here: martinhilbert.net/HilbertPsychBull.pdf
It is shown that noisy deviations in the memory-based information
processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into
subjective estimates (decisions) can produce List of cognitive
biases#Decision-making.2C belief and behavioral biases|regressive
conservatism, the Conservatism (belief revision)|belief revision
(Bayesian conservatism), illusory correlations, iIllusory superiority
(better-than-average effect) and worse-than-average effect,
subadditivity effect, List of cognitive biases#Decision-making.2C
belief and behavioral biases|exaggerated expectation,
overconfidence, and the hard–easy effect.
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Cognitive bias - Practical significance
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Cognitive biases are also related to
the persistence of superstition, to
large social issues such as prejudice,
and they also work as a hindrance in
the acceptance of scientific nonintuitive knowledge by the public.
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Cognitive bias - Reducing cognitive bias
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Moreover, cognitive
biases can be
controlled
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Cognitive bias - Reducing cognitive bias
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Although Cognitive Bias Modification can
refer to modifying cognitive processes in
healthy individuals, CBMT is a growing
area of evidence-based psychological
therapy, in which cognitive processes are
modified to relieve sufferingMacLeod, C.,
Mathews, A., Tata, P
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List of cognitive biases
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'Cognitive biases' are tendencies to
think in certain ways. Cognitive
biases can lead to systematic
deviations from a standard of
rationality or good judgment, and are
often studied in psychology and
behavioral economics.
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List of cognitive biases
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Such effects are called cognitive
biases
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Emotion in animals - Cognitive bias test
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A cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in
judgment, whereby inferences about other
animals and situations may be drawn in an
illogical fashion. Individuals create their
own “subjective social reality” from their
perception of the input. It refers to the
question Is the glass half empty or half
full?, used as an indicator of optimism or
pessimism.
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Emotion in animals - Cognitive bias test
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Cognitive biases have been shown in a
wide range of species including including
rats, dogs, rhesus macaques, sheep,
chicks, starlings and honeybees.
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Name calling - As a cognitive bias in propaganda
Name calling is a
cognitive bias and a
technique to promote
propaganda
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Cognitive biases - Reducing cognitive bias
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Moreover, cognitive biases can be
controlled
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Cognitive biases - Reducing cognitive bias
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Although Cognitive Bias Modification can
refer to modifying cognitive processes in
healthy individuals, CBMT is a growing
area of evidence-based psychological
therapy, in which cognitive processes are
modified to relieve sufferingMacLeod, C.,
Mathews, A., Tata, P
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Cognitive bias modification
'Cognitive Bias Modification Therapy'
(CBMT) is sub-group of therapies within a
growing area of psychological therapies
based on modifying cognitive processes
with or without accompanying medication
and talk therapy, sometimes referred to as
Applied Cognitive Processing Therapies
(ACPT)
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Cognitive bias modification
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Similarly, patient insight is not required
because CBM seeks to target the
underlying maintaining cognitive bias
directly; therefore, patient engagement is
likely to be easier
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Cognitive bias modification
Modifying Interpretation in a
Clinically Depressed Sample Using
'Cognitive Bias Modification-Errors':
A Double Blind Randomized
Controlled Trial. Cognitive Therapy
and Research, 1-14. doi:
10.1007/s10608-013-9571-y)
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Cognitive bias modification - Efficacy evidence base and other research
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Cognitive bias modification for anxiety:
current evidence and future directions
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Cognitive bias modification - Efficacy evidence base and other research
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Socially Anxious Primary Care Patients'
Attitudes Toward Cognitive Bias
Modification (CBM): A Qualitative Study
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Cognitive bias modification - Attentional retraining|Attention Training
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The attentional bias is one
of several different
cognitive biases
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Cognitive bias modification - Attentional retraining|Attention Training
Attentional retraining as cognitive bias
modification is predicated on the observed
attentional bias evident in
psychopathology
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Cognitive bias modification - Criticisms and limitations
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Another concern is that participants
with cognitive vulnerability are not
able to maintain their new learning
even within a CBM course, with their
negative cognitive bias beginning to
re-emerge over
time.http://www3.nd.edu/~ghaeffel/
Resources/Haeffeletal2012.pdf
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Cognitive bias mitigation
'Cognitive bias mitigation' is the
prevention and reduction of the
negative effects of cognitive biases –
unconscious, automatic influences on
human judgment and decision
making that reliably produce
reasoning errors.
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Cognitive bias mitigation
There is no coherent, comprehensive
theory or practice of cognitive bias
mitigation. This article describes tools,
methods, proposals and other initiatives, in
academic and professional disciplines
concerned with the efficacy of human
reasoning, associated with the concept of
cognitive bias mitigation; most address
mitigation tacitly rather than explicitly.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Context
has established that a defining
characteristic of cognitive biases is
that they manifest automatically and
unconsciously over a wide range of
human reasoning, so even those aware
of the existence of the phenomenon
are unable to detect, let alone
mitigate, their manifestation via
awareness only.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
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There are few studies explicitly linking
cognitive biases to real-world incidents
with highly negative outcomes.
Examples:
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
This was a case of highly trained,
experienced people breaking their
own rules, apparently under the
influence of the Overconfidence
effect|Overconfidence Effect, the
sunk cost fallacy, the availability
heuristic, and perhaps other cognitive
biases
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
German researchers examined the role
that certain cognitive biases may have had
in the global financial crisis beginning in
2007
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
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There are numerous investigations of
incidents determining that human
error was central to highly negative
potential or actual real-world
outcomes, in which manifestation of
cognitive biases is a plausible
component. Examples:
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
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A host of Cognitive Biases can be
imagined in this situation:
confirmation bias, hindsight bias,
overconfidence effect, availability
bias, and even the meta-bias bias
blind spot.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
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The power of confirmation bias alone
would be sufficient to explain why this
happened, but other cognitive biases
probably manifested as well.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
Cognitive Bias in Software
Engineering.Communications of the ACM
38(6), June 1995: 57–63.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
* Other disaster-level examples of
negative outcomes resulting from
human error, possibly including
multiple Cognitive bias|Cognitive
Biases: the Three Mile Island nuclear
meltdown, the loss of the Space Shuttle
Challenger, the Chernobyl nuclear
reactor fire, the downing of an Iran Air
Flight 655|Iran Air passenger aircraft,
the ineffective response to the
Hurricane Katrina weather event, and
many more.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
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Each of the Cognitive bias|approximately
100 cognitive biases known to date can
also produce negative outcomes in our
everyday lives, though rarely as serious as
in the examples above. An illustrative
selection, recounted in multiple studies:
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive bias mitigation to date
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In most cases this is based on explicit
reference to cognitive biases or their
mitigation, in others on unstated but selfevident applicability
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Decision theory
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Practitioners tend to treat deviations from
what a rational agent would do as 'errors
of irrationality', with the implication that
Cognitive Bias Mitigation can only be
achieved by decision makers becoming
more like rational agents, though no
explicit measures for achieving this are
proffered.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Decision theory
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Practitioners tend to treat deviations from
what a rational agent would do as
evidence of important, but as yet not
understood, decision-making variables,
and have as yet no explicit or implicit
contributions to make to a theory and
practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Game theory
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As with decision theory, practitioners tend
to view such deviations as 'irrational', and
rather than attempt to model such
behavior, by implication hold that Cognitive
Bias Mitigation can only be achieved by
decision makers becoming more like
rational agents.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Behavioral economics
No mention is made in Prospect
theory|formal prospect theory of Cognitive
Bias Mitigation, and there is no evidence
of peer-reviewed work on Cognitive Bias
Mitigation in other areas of this discipline.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Behavioral economics
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These contributions assert that Cognitive
Bias Mitigation is necessary and offer
general suggestions for how to achieve it,
though the guidance is limited to only a
few Cognitive Biases and is not selfevidently generalizable to others.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Neuroeconomics
These results must be considered
speculative and preliminary, but are
nonetheless suggestive of the possibility of
real-time identification of brain states
associated with Cognitive biases|Cognitive
Bias manifestation, and the possibility of
purposeful interventions at the neuronal
level to achieve Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
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Nonetheless, this approach has merit
as part of a Cognitive Bias Mitigation
protocol when the process is applied
with a maximum of diligence, in
situations where good data is
available and all stakeholders can be
expected to cooperate.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
One contribution to a theory and
practice of cognitive bias mitigation
from this approach is that it addresses
mitigation without explicitly targeting
individual cognitive biases and
focuses on the reasoning mechanism
itself to avoid cognitive biases
manifestation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
of firefighter captains, military platoon
leaders and others making correct, snap
judgments under extreme duress suggest
that these responses are likely not
generalizable and may contribute to a
theory and practice of cognitive bias
mitigation only the general idea of domainspecific intensive training.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
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This finding, if generalizable to other
tasks and disciplines, would discount
the potential of expert-level training
as a cognitive bias mitigation
approach, and could contribute a
narrow but important idea to a theory
and practice of cognitive bias
mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
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Laboratory experiments in which cognitive
bias mitigation is an explicit goal are rare
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology
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The Evolution of Cognitive Bias
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology
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It is too early to tell whether this idea
applies more generally to other
Cognitive bias|Cognitive Biases, but
the point of view supporting the theory
may be useful in the construction of a
theory and practice of Cognitive Bias
Mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology
The System 1/2 view of the human
reasoning mechanism appears to have
empirical plausibility (see
Help:Section#Section
linking|Neuroscience, next) and thus
may contribute to a theory and
practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Neuroscience
While this notion must remain
speculative until further work is done,
it appears to be a productive basis for
conceiving options for constructing a
theory and practice of Cognitive Bias
Mitigation.Damasio, A
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Anthropology
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If this is true, then one possible means to
achieve at least some Cognitive Bias
Mitigation is to mimic, as much as
possible, Paleolithic/Holocene social,
political and economic scenarios when
one is performing a reasoning task that
could attract negative cognitive bias
effects.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Human reliability engineering
While this approach can produce
effective responses to critical
situations under stress, the protocols
involved must be viewed as having
limited generalizability beyond the
domain for which they were developed,
with the implication that solutions in
this discipline may provide only
generic frameworks to a theory and
practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Machine learning
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One technique particularly applicable to
Cognitive Bias Mitigation is neural
network|neural network learning and
choice selection, an approach inspired by
the imagined structure and function of
actual neural networks in the human brain
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Machine learning
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In principle, such models are capable of
modeling decision making that takes
account of human needs and motivations
within social contexts, and suggest their
consideration in a theory and practice of
Cognitive Bias Mitigation
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Software engineering
This discipline, though not focused on
improving human reasoning outcomes as
an end goal, is one in which the need for
such improvement has been explicitly
recognized, though the term Cognitive
Bias Mitigation is not universally used.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Software engineering
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This study refers to a broad research
program with the goal of moving
toward a theory and practice of
Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Other
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A commercial initiative offers what it refers
to as a 'Cognitive Bias Modification'
service (see link below). While suggestive,
it is mentioned here only for
completeness, as there is no evidence that
this service is backed by peer-reviewed
research results.
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Cognitive bias mitigation - Other
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Other initiatives aimed directly at a
theory and practice of Cognitive Bias
Mitigation may exist within other
disciplines under different labels than
employed here.
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