Utility, Constraints, and Choices (Chapter 2) What people want Constraints Choices Utility: What do people want? • Objective: maximize “utility” • Imagine your “utility” depends on just a couple of things, say food and clothing Utility U U ( F , C ) • The utility function ranks combinations of food and clothing • What matters for choosing: total or marginal utility? Indifference Curves • An indifference curve represents a set of market bundles that a person equally prefers (or gives the consumer an equal amount of utility). If two bundles are on the same indifference curve, then the person is indifferent between the two bundles. • The slope (ΔF/ΔC) tells you the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between C and F How are Indifference curves usually shape? F • Cannot cross • Downward Sloping - You are willing to trade one good for another F • Convex - Averages preferred to extremes • Decreasing MRS = (ΔF/ΔC) Northeast is better; the combinations on U2 are preferred over those on U1 U2 U1 C C Preferences for leisure • Indifference curves illustrate how people X rank things and prefer to trade them off • Think about your attitudes toward some important choices – like working, saving and risk-taking, and even honesty and integrity? • What are the tradeoffs and how do you weigh them? Working trades off leisure (L) for consumption (X) L Preferences for “now” and risk future return Risk is a “bad”, so northwest is better risk present Saving trades off the present for the future Risk-taking trades off lower risk for greater return Constraints—You Can’t Always Get What You Want Fredo, you're my older brother, and I love you. But don't ever take sides with anyone against the family again. Ever. Michael Corleone, The Godfather Budget constraints • Introduce a Basic Model with 2 goods Food (F) and Clothing (C) • One period decision—no borrowing or lending • Take income as a given (I ) • Prices of Food ( PF ) and Price of Clothing ( PC ) • Model is meant to introduce general principles not to explain all of the world Budget constraints • Go back to the food and clothing example • What determines your limits? • A budget set shows what is affordable: PF F PC C I (Expenditures on food and clothing cannot exceed income) • Focus on the boundary of the constraint, the budget line: PF F PC C I Budget lines • It is helpful to rewrite the budget line like this: F PC 1 F C I PF PF Beyond the budget line is not affordable F • What is the slope and what does it tell you? C C How Do Constraints Change When Income and prices change? F F Decrease in the price of clothing Increase in income C C Other Budget Constraints • Consumption and Leisure—We allow income to vary • Consume now or in the future—We allow people to save and borrow Budget line for leisure and consumption • Budget Constraint pX wH A X How much consumption do you get for giving up an hour of leisure? pX w(24 L) A H = Hours of Work L = Leisure X = Consumption p = price of consumption (1) • How does the market trade off leisure and consumption? slope w “endowment” X T L Intertemporal budget line • You may save or borrow at a market rate of interest (r) • To every dollar of present consumption deferred to the future, r dollars are added to it: X 2 (1 r )X1 • So, what does r measure? X2 How much future consumption do you get for giving up a unit of present consumption? slope (1 r ) I2 “endowment” I1 X1 Present and Future Value • Intertemporal budget line (2 periods) FV : (1 r ) X 1 X 2 (1 r ) I1 I 2 PV : X 1 X2 I I1 2 1 r 1 r • Work forward to calculate future values of $100 Date Value 0 100 1 100 + 100r = 100(1+ r) 2 100(1 + r) + 100(1+ r)r = 100(1 + r)2 T 100(1 + r)T-1 + 100( 1+ r)T-1r = 100(1 + r)T • Work backward to get the present values Budget line for risk and return How much does the market compensate investors for taking on extra risk? E (return) • If risk is measured in terms of the standard deviation (σ) of returns • Two possibilities are the market portfolio, with return rm and a risk-free asset, with return rf rm slope (rm rf ) / m rf m Choosing One's philosophy is not best expressed in words; it is expressed in the choices one makes … and the choices we make are ultimately our responsibility. Eleanor Roosevelt Reconciling tradeoffs • Why is neither A nor B the best you can do? F • At E: MU C PC MRS MU F PF F A * Personal and market tradeoffs are reconciled at E-highest I curve E MU C MU F PC PF B U2 U1 • What does that mean? C* C You consume the right (optimal) amount of food and clothing • If you – Have a budget of $100 – Face prices of food ($1) and clothing ($2) per unit – Have an MRS of (–F/C) • What is the “right” amount of food and clothing for you? • Consumer and “market” value goods in the same way First, equate your MRS to the price ratio F 2 C F 2C MRS Second, substitute for F in your budget line F 2C 100 2C 2C 100 C * 25 F * 2C * 50 Optimizing in other decisions • How are the tradeoffs reconciled in the other choices we studied? return rm • How about the investment decision? rx E rf • What does it mean to say that E is best? x m Remember, risk is a “bad” and northwest is better risk From choosing to demand F Pc The price of clothes falls and you “re-optimize”, increasing your consumption of clothes E1 E2 The demand curve traces out your choices as price changes, holding other factors constant Pc1 U2 Pc2 U1 C1* C2* C D C1* C2* C Other views “The fundamental economic theory of motivation is based on assumptions of effort aversion (people will not expend effort unless paid to do so), opportunism (people, in the pursuit of their own interests, will often misrepresent their true preferences and engage in guile and deceit), and a lack of goal alignment (employees in organizations have different agendas than the owners and, therefore, incentive systems need to be designed to force people to do what is right for the good of the organization). In the economists’ view, people are assumed to be lazy, dishonest, and at odds with the goals of the managers. Although each of these assumptions may be valid in a specific situation, or for a particular individual (for instance, when managing economists themselves), none is likely to be right in most settings with normal human beings.” Charles O’Reilly & Jeffrey Pfeffer Conclusions • Self-interest matters – people are driven pretty much by their desire to better themselves (maximize “utility”) • Constraints matter – people respond to incentives (changes in “relative prices”) • Preferences and constraints are reconciled at the margin (when MB = MC) • Standard model is the foundation for demand analysis • Apply to work, savings and risk-taking • These basic models illustrate general principles