Enabling Businesses To Evaluate the Role
of Habitats in Hurricane Risk Mitigation
Sheila Walsh Reddy
The Nature Conservancy
1
Growing business risk….
1. Climate Change
2. Energy & Fuel
3. Material Resource Scarcity
4. Water Scarcity
5. Population Growth
6. Urbanization
7. Wealth
8. Food Security
9. Ecosystem Decline
10.Deforestation
(KPMG 2011)
…..and business opportunities.
Sustainably managing ecosystems makes economic sense.
(MEA 2005)
Hurricane Katrina
$110 billion
$14 billion
relief fund 1
restoration 2
Sources:
1. U.S. Congress, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Bills – HR 4939, PL 109-234 and HR 3673, PL 109-62 (2005), 2. Draft Comprehensive Coast-wide Ecosystem Restoration Study,
Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, October 2003
Need Tools To Measure Missing Assets and Liabilities
Natural Capital
$
Human Capital
Manufactured Capital
(Photo credit: Jen Molnar, Wikicommons)
Growing conservation challenges…..
TNC 1955
……global conservation needs partnerships.
TNC 2013: priority areas
TNC Lands (USA)
Nature Conservancy-Dow Collaboration
To find ways for companies to
incorporate the value of nature
into business decisions.
Jennifer Molnar
TNC-Dow Pilot site analyses
Freeport, Texas
•
•
Air quality via reforestation
Coastal protection •
Freshwater supply
Santa Vitória, Brazil
•
Agricultural supply chain
Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar
Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation
Hypothesis:
Understanding the role of coastal habitats in storm protection
will improve levee design and reduce costs, especially in the
face of sea level rise
Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar
The Problem
Billions US$
Global Losses from Natural Hazards are Increasing
The Opportunity
Ecosystems May Mitigate Losses
Natural and Built Infrastructure
And?
Or?
Salt marsh
Levee or Sea wall
Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation
13
Valuation for Corporate Coastal Hazard Mitigation
Levees
Natural Hazard
Mitigation
Additional
Benefits
Habitat
Economic Costs
and Benefits to
Business and
Public
(e.g. Recreation)
Biodiversity
Scenario Comparisons
Coastal Habitat
Levee
Coastal Habitat +
Levee Designed
for Coastal Habitat
Methods: Overview
• Model future land cover with sea level rise,
development
• Identify levee design for 100 yr storm
• Analyze flood and damages from Cat 1-5 storms
• Compare avoided damages
• Assess other public and ecosystem benefits
• Evaluate opportunities to enhance/protect values
Sea Level Rise and
Decreasing Marsh Habitat
9% decrease in marsh
Current
35% decrease in marsh
2050, 0.57 m sea level rise
2100, 1.29 m sea level rise
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Sea Level Rise and Marsh Loss Increases
Risk from a 100 yr Storm in 2050
0.6 m
Sea Level Rise
Mitigating
Effect of
Habitat
12% Higher
Floods
1% Lower
Floods
9% Higher
Levee Costs
1% Lower
Levee Costs
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Small Private and Large Public Benefits from Habitat
Additional Habitat Values:
•
Habitat for 12 Fisheries
•
Carbon Sequestration
- Negative in long-term
•
Habitat for >200 Species
*
*Chart not to scale
19
Restoration May Maintain/Improve Benefits
Restored
Dry Lands
Other Potential Opportunities for
Coastal Protection?
c
Outcomes
The Value of Information for Risk Management
Science:
Business method:
Link ecological change
to business value
Ability to value missing
c
assets
Inform
Conservation/
Business Priorities:
When do marshes have
significant protective
values?
22
Future Challenges: An Invitation
Science:
Link ecological change
to business value
Future Challenges: An Invitation
Business method:
Ability to value missing
assets
Future Challenges: An Invitation
Inform
Conservation/
Business Priorities:
When do marshes have
significant protective
values?
Acknowledgments
• TNC-Sustainability Science: Sheila Walsh (co-lead), Tim
Boucher, Jon Fisher, Anthony Rogers, Alex Maas, Jen
Molnar
• Dow: Doug Whipple (co-lead), Daniel Ramirez, John
DiMuro, Judy Gunderson
• TNC-TX: Jorge Brenner, Michael Thompson
• Natural Capital Project: Greg Guannel, Rob Griffin, Joe
Faries, Joey Bernhardt, Greg Verutes, Spencer Wood, Jess
Silver, Jodie Toft, Anne Guerry
• TNC-Global Marine: Mike Beck, Chris Shepard
• Warren Pinnacle Consulting: Jonathon Clough, Marco
Propato, Amy Polaczyk
• AIR: Akshay Gupta, Andrew Kao
• Funding: Dow Chemical Company Foundation
Extra Slides
27
Landcover Change
28
Value of nature
Company
Public
Ecosystems
Jennifer Molnar
Hybrid and Levee Infrastructure Scenarios
Provide Similar Levels of Private Protection
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