Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC
New Models and Methods in Support of
Integrated Climate Research
Dale Haidvogel
IMCS, Rutgers University
dale@imcs.rutgers.edu
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Outline
1. U.S. GLOBEC as an example of new approaches to
Integrated Climate Research
2. Requirements for Pan-Regional Synthesis
3. Status and skill of end-to-end systems
4. Next steps
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC
The principal objective of U.S. GLOBEC research is
to understand and predict the effects of global
climate change on ocean ecosystem dynamics
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas &
Principal Target Species
Gulf of Alaska
Georges Bank
Copepods
Euphausiids
Pink Salmon
Copepods
Atlantic Cod
Haddock
California Current
Copepods
Euphausiids
Coho Salmon
Chinook Salmon
Southern Ocean
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Krill
U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas &
Physical Processes
Gulf of Alaska
Stratification
Buoyancy-Driven Flow
Downwelling
Cross-Shelf Exchange
Georges Bank
Stratification
Retention/Loss
Cross-Front Exchange
California Current
Stratification
Upwelling/Downwelling
Cross-Shelf Exchange
Southern Ocean
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Stratification
Sea Ice Dynamics
Retention/Loss
Goals of U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis
• Undertake regional and pan-regional synthesis and comparisons among U.S.
GLOBEC study locations and international programs to understand the impacts of
climate change and variability on selected target species and marine ecosystems
• Integrate process-oriented, observational, and retrospective studies through
conceptual and mathematical models
• Bridge the nested spatial/temporal scales of these GLOBEC program elements
through modeling to understand climates-scale impacts
• Develop tools needed to predict the responses of populations and ecosystems to
global climate change and climate variability
• Contribute to management of living marine resources in an ecosystem context
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC Approach to Integrated Climate Research
Climate
Model
Mass Balance
Network Models
Sea Ice
Individual-Based
Population
Models
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Prey
Fields
Climate Model Biases
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
SST (20 August 2000)
ROMS NEP Grid (10 km)
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
POP
Multi-scale modeling in the North Pacific
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Status of Three Regional Domains
Curchitser, Hedstrom, Powell, Hermann, Moore, Haidvogel
Δx
Now
Next
When?
NPac
0.18o
19581978
19782006
As time
permits
NEP
10 km
19582004
Add
tides
Soon
CCS
3 km
2000
20002004†
1-2
months
†
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Adjoint-based assimilation
NEP Implementation
Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E
ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints
Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and
Yeager)
Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP
hindcast model
Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El
Nino’s, regime shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion
Outputs: Daily averaged physical snapshots of
velocity, temperature, etc.
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
1961-75
Dale Haidvogel
Institute
of Marine
and
Coastal
Note:
Left
panel is
May
only;Sciences
Right is Annual
+PDO
From Schwing et al. (2002)
1978-96
-PDO
The 1976-77 Regime Shift
SST Patterns
Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July
1997
7-8 July
2000
2000
1998
Well defined core of California Under Current
in 1997, 1998, 2000; close to slope
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July
9-11 July
2002
2002
1999
Weaker, more diffuse California Under Current
in 1999 & 2002; not adjacent to slope
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Next Steps
1. Fully integrate ROMS within CCSM
(underway @ NCAR)
2. Demonstration in multiple physical settings
(pilot projects)
3. Engage wider community (e.g., CLIVAR, IMBER)
(conference)
Dale Haidvogel
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences