COUNTERPLAN Text: The United States should remove criminal prohibitions and penalties for nearly all solicitation of sexual activity for compensation in the United States. Legalization ensures workers have no autonomy and solidifies the stigma against them—regs make it more exploitative than criminalization. Decriminalization is key to empower sex workers and improve working conditions. Thompson 2k (Susan, J.D., Capital University Law School May 2000; B.A. and Honors B.A., York University, 1996) “Prostitution-A Choice Ignored” WOMEN'S RIGHTS LAW REPORTER [Vol. 21:217 2000] legalization is very problematic on it represents the ultimate form of control over women's bodies and sexuality .4 7 7 While the typical "pimp- prostitute" relationship is seemingly non-exis- tent, the government's tight control over prosti- tution, creates a situation where the govern- ment may be considered the pimp.478 Although a system of legalization appears to be a viable alternative to criminalization, its own. Opponents to legalization argue that Similar to the traditional pimp, the government controls with whom, when, and where the prostitute en- gages in prostitution through a rigid series of time, place, and manner restrictions.479 Instead of providing women with a degree of control and personal autonomy over their lives, the system of legalization ensures that prostitutes have no input over their lives and livelihood. This lack of choice and control, leaves women fully dependent on the government for every aspect of their work.48 ° Once a prostitute is licensed to work in the legal brothel, she automatically gives up her freedom to choose who her customers are, when to work, and how much she will receive for her services.4 8 ' A brothel prostitute typically works fourteen hour shifts, everyday, for a three-week period.482 During that time, a brothel prostitute may see at least ten to fifteen men a day.483 Prostitutes have no control over the clients they see so they have no right to refuse or deny a customer service, unless the customer is aggressive and abusive.484 Legal brothel prostitutes may generate a decent income from their work, however, they must split their earnings with management and are expected to pay for expenses, such as room and board, condoms, maid services, and a portion of weekly venereal dis- ease checkups.485 Additionally, prostitutes' movements outside of the brothel are strictly controlled.486 Once licensed, the female prosti- tute may not live in the same area that she works, socialize outside the brothel, or vacation in the same area.487 On the whole, prostitutes are forbidden to leave the brothels except to go to a doctor's appointment or the beauty salon. The mandatory health checks have been influential in reducing the rate of STDs and AIDS in prostitution. 489 mandatory health controls do little to protect the prostitute from infected clients who are either unaware they are infected or aware and continue to visit legal brothels.49° Once the prostitute tests positive for a disease such as AIDS, she is forced to give up her only means of income, with no chance of receiving disability or unemployment insurance to compensate her for her lOSS. 4 91 Additionally, mandatory health care may present some problems regarding the right to refuse medical treatment when prostitutes are forced to undergo medical examinations. 492 Lastly, the legalization of prostitution through a system of licensing and registration stigmatizes prostitutes as a group of women in need of regulation and control . 493 prostitutes are no longer criminals, under a system of criminalization, they are stigmatized as "bad girls., 49 4 The sys- tem of legalization perpetuates the ideology of the whore/ madonna dichotomy by emphasizing that whores are the source of diseases and licensing is the only way to control their behavior.495 Alternatively, the madonna is the pure, good girl, who unlike the "other" woman, does not have to be controlled by strict regulations. Arguably, there is a fine line between the whore/madonna which can easily be crossed by not only selling sex, but by giving it away im- properly through adultery or promiscuity.496 This forced stigmatization may cause some prostitutes to work illegally, for fear that registration and licensing may make their identity known .4 97 Under this scheme of control, the prostitute is not granted the same rights of privacy afforded to the clients who enter the brothels.498 Clients who seek the service of a, brothel prostitute do not face registration or risk friends and family finding out about their activities without their knowledge. 499 Had clients been forced to register. before visiting a brothel, one is left to wonder, how many, if any, would continue to frequent brothels under such strict conditions? At first glance, the system of legalization appears to be the best model of control, for al- lowing women the freedom to practice prostitu- tion if they choose. However, a closer examina- tion shows that legalization does not promote freedom or choice in prostitution, but rather eliminates all freedom associated with the choice of prostitution. In some ways, the legal- ized system of control is more exploitative and criminal than the criminalized model of prosti- tution control . Under legalization, women are not given any options. Either they work within the strict regulations that dictate their behavior and activities, or work outside of the law and risk potential violence and arrest. Although brothel prostitutes may make a decent living, they enjoy less freedom than the average worker at a fast-food restaurant.5°° In some ways, the worker at a fast-food establishment may actually fare better than the brothel prosti- tute because that worker is not subjected to mandatory weekly and monthly health exami- nations, and is free to walk and travel where she pleases.5 'O More importantly, if she loses her job or is unable to work, unemployment, disa- bility insurance, and other social benefits are available for her protection. The system of le- galization is a form of modern day slavery-cre- ated, operated, and condoned by the govern- ment, in order to control women's sexuality.502 In essence, the legalized prostitute is the most exploited worker under a system of capitalism. She is forced to work for the "master," with no questions asked. This legalized system of imprisonment is carefully structured so the prosti- tute does all the work and receives none of the benefits. The system of legalization forces us to question who truly benefits from the laws of le- galization? C. Decriminalization The decriminalization of prostitution involves the removal of all existing criminal laws and regulations regarding voluntary prostitution between consenting adults.5°3 Voluntary relationships between prostitutes and their managers (pimps) will also be free from criminal regulations and sanctions." 4 Under decriminalization, no new legislation will be implemented specifically directed at prostitution, instead, prostitution will be subject to the same civil, business, and professional codes of conduct that cover all legal businesses."5 Presently, no system of decriminalization exists anywhere in the United States. Unlike the United States, most European nations do not prohibit the entire practice of prostitution."' Countries such as Sweden, France, and Belgium recognize prostitution as a legal activity.5 ' Similarly, the Netherlands has accepted prostitution as a legitimate profession under a system of decriminalization.50 8 Known for having the least repressive laws on prostitution, the authorities in the Netherlands tolerate 59 the brothels and escort services. Although the government does not actively interfere with the practice of prostitution, per se, it does control illegal activities associated with it.510 Sec- tion 250b of the Dutch Penal Code, currently prohibits "certain prostitution-related activities such as pimping, facilitating prostitutes, and running prostitution enterprises."51' Under a system of decriminalization, prostitutes are given their independence to work freely in their 512 chosen profession. "Any laws concerning prostitution focus on monitoring safe working conditions and protecting the women from 51 3 The majority of prostitution activities takes place in Amsterdam and Utrecht.1 4 Amsterdam's policy tolerates existing prostitution houses, but prevents new ones from opening. 51 5 In Utrecht, a "zone of tolerance" exists where within a specified, separated area, prostitutes solicit men under the watchful protection of plainclothes police officers and other prostitutes.516 Under this policy, "[w]hen a prostitute leaves with a customer, another will take note of the license plate number; if she is gone longer than usual, an authority will be notified. 5' 17 Decriminalizing the act of prostitution and all associated activities is directly aimed at empowering prostitutes to take control over their lives and their work conditions .518 Prostitute's lives are dependent upon healthy, safe, and eco- nomically viable work conditions. Protection alone is meaningless if prostitutes are continu- ally denied the right to work, organize, and par- ticipate in social security programs.519 Decriminalization will permit prostitutes to organize and form unions in order to voice their needs and concerns. As a professional union, prostitutes would be better able to fight for improved working conditions and even develop standard professional codes of ethics and be- havior that regulate their occupation.52 ° Recog- nition as a legal activity would permit prosti- tutes to demand implementation of satisfactory health and safety standards, which would legally have to be followed by those who employ pros- titutes.52' Prostitutes would be able to request a leave of absence for illness and vacations when the stress of the job become too much to han- dle. Additionally, decriminalization would give prostitutes the opportunity to create and oper- ate job-related training programs publicly for new prostitutes and refresher courses for the more experienced prostitute. Training in "self- defense, sexual techniques, money management ... and the creation of mutual aid and support networks " would empower prostitutes with for- mal control over themselves and their environ- ment.5 2 Presently, under a system of criminaliza- tion, prostitutes are unable to gain access to ad- equate health care or become eligible for work- men's compensation or disability. If prostitutes are injured or become sick on the job, they have no insurance to compensate them while they are unable to work.52 3 However, under a model of decriminalization, recognizing prostitution as a legal profession would alter this grim reality. From a health perspective, many benefits would develop from decriminalizing prostitution. Firstly, decriminalization would make private health insurance available to all prostitutes.524 Since prostitution would no longer be illegal, private insurers would be able to provide legal coverage to prostitutes who could afford it.5 25 Secondly, decriminalization would make employer-based health coverage available to prostitutes who were employed in brothels. 2 6 Economic incentives or legal sanctions could mandate that employers provide health insurance to their employees at affordable rates.5 27 Lastly, eliminating the illegality of prostitution may allow prostitutes to have access to state sponsored health care coverage, such as Social Security Disability Insurance or worker's compensation.128 If excess costs were a great concern, "[t]axing prostitutes' income would generate additional revenue for the state, which may help to offset the ever-increasing cost of national health care.,529 As noted earlier, enforcing the laws against prostitution is costly and a waste of valuable resources and manpower.53 ° Increasing technol- ogy and advanced methods of communication have made the easy arrest of the streetwalker virtually obsolete.5"3' In order to keep up, gov- ernments have to invest more time and money to enforce prostitution laws. According to the New York Times, "[t]he internet, pagers, cellu- lar phones and subterfuges like escort services have enabled more discreet forms of prostitutio n to thrive beyond the reach of the street- level crackdown .... A 1985 study of sixteen of the nation's larg- est cities, indicated that each city had spent ap- proximately $7.5 million to enforce prostitution laws.533 This came out to an estimated $120 million spent for all sixteen cities combined.534 The study further detailed that police officers working in pairs, spent an average of twenty- one hours per prostitution arrest.535 This in- cluded the time necessary to, (1) obtain a solicitation from, and make an arrest of, a suspected prosti- tute or customer; (2) transport the ar- restee to the police station or deten- tion center; (3) complete finger- printing and identification processes; (4) write and file a report; and (5) tes- tify in court. This fifth duty absorbs the majority of each arresting officer's twenty-one hours.536 After spending all those hours on one ar- rest, it is not surprising that police costs account for 40% of all public funds. 5 37 All sixteen of the cities studied, had spent a total of $35,627,496 to prosecute women for prostitution and an esti- mated $31,770,211 was spent on incarcerating prostitutes.538 In New York, prostitutes ac- counted for over 50% of the population in wo- men's jails and in California they accounted for at least 30%. 5 3 ' The reasoning behind these figures, is simply that prostitutes usually serve longer sentences than women convicted of other misdemeanors.540 It is clear that the costs and resources wasted on enforcing prostitution laws are ridic- ulous. The process of policing prostitution is an inherently lengthy and tedious one.541 Decriminalization would allow costs and re- sources used for prostitution enforcement to be transferred to enforce more pressing legal con- cerns.542 Not only would this be a more efficient use of presently scarce resources and pre- cious police manpower, the costs to local taxpayers would decrease tremendously, saving Americans millions.543 A final argument in favor of decriminalization involves the equal protection violations against women prosecuted for solicitation.5 44 Prostitutes and support organizations citing an equal protection violation, address the statutory discriminatory treatment as applied to clients, married couples, and prostitutes.545 Although many states have statutes that make illegal both the solicitation and the procurement of commercial sex, prostitutes often face unfair treatment under the law.54 6 This selective enforcement places a disproportionate blame on women for the problems of prostitution.547 Decriminalization would grant prostitutes a privacy right to engage in consensual commercial sex, thereby affording them legal protection and rights. 54 8 However, the state courts have failed to recognize a privacy interest to engage in commercial sex. 54 9 Roe II v. Butterworth, ruled that although the Florida statute did not deny adults the right to engage in consensual sex, there was no fundamentally protected right of privacy to engage in sex for money.550 Additionally, the state courts have refused to recognize any discriminatory treatment, re- garding the ways the laws treat prostitutes as compared to married couples.55 2 When a hus- band offers to pay his wife for sexual services, that transaction will be afforded constitutional protection. However, the exchange of mone- tary compensation for sex between unmarried, consenting adults, is prosecuted under the laws of prostitution." 2 The court in People v. Mason ruled that states have a rational basis for dis- criminatory treatment between unmarried and married adults since there exists a heightened privacy interest for all marital relationships.5 3 Theorists in favor of prostitution argue that there is essentially no difference between the exchange of money for sex in a marriage or within a prostitute-client relationship.554 Ac- cording to Simone de Beauvoir, "[f]or both [marriage and prostitution] the sexual act is a service; the one is hired for life by one decriminalization of voluntary prosti- tution is not only the best alternative, it is the only alternative . Only within a system of decriminalization would prostitutes be free to demand the equal justice and representation under the law they so rightly deserve. Decriminalization would empower prostitutes with the ability to demand recognition of their work as man; the other has several clients who pay her by the '555 piece. The labor worthy of receiving all the bene- fits and protections afforded to any other pro- fession. When society allows prostitutes to organize and form support networks, it gives them a voice to shout out against any abuse and injustice . Decriminalization acknowledges that prostitutes are not the enemies, but rather a sys- tem that marginalizes their existence and defines them as criminals is the enemy. To deny any individual access to satisfac- tory health care, fair wages, and a safe work environment is inhumane. Continued criminaliza- tion of prostitution justifies such inhumane treatment of prostitutes, under the pretext that "they" are different from "us." The demand for decriminalization sends out a message that soci- ety will no longer support. a system that arbi- trarily selects who will be protected from abuse under the law and who will not. Decriminaliza- tion may not be the perfect solution to all the problems associated with prostitution, but it is the answer that makes the most sense. CP ensures effective trafficking identification---allows sex workers to work directly with law enforcement Open Society Foundation 12, organization committed to improving human rights in emerging and existing democracies, “10 Reasons to Decriminalize Sex Work,” http://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/sites/default/files/decriminalize-sex-work-20120713.pdf DECRIMINALIZATION FACILITATES EFFECTIVE RESPONSES TO TRAFFICKING Concerns that decriminalization will promote sex trafficking are founded on a mistaken conflation of sex work and trafficking. In fact, jurisdictions that decriminalize sex work can retain and even strengthen criminal prohibitions on trafficking, sexual coercion, and the prostitution of minors. Decriminalizing sex work does not cause an increase in trafficking. For example, New Zealand, which decriminalized sex work in 2003, continues to be ranked in Tier 1 by the U nited S tates State Department’s Trafficking in Persons report—that is, the country is judged to be among those doing the most effective work on human trafficking.24 Laws and policies that encourage or enable collectivization of sex workers may also facilitate enforcement of anti-trafficking laws. When not themselves under the threat of criminal penalties, sex workers and their organizations can work with law enforcement to combat trafficking. The UNAIDS Guidance Note on HIV and Sex Work highlights sex worker organizations as best 9 positioned to refer women and children who are victims of trafficking to appropriate services.25 Criminalization of sex work can impede the anti-trafficking efforts of sex worker organizations and make it easier for sex workers to be wrongly categorized as trafficked persons. The CP is a distinct policy option from the plan—legalization requires state regulation. Meng 13—Jinmei, “On the Decriminalization of Sex Work in China: HIV and Patients’ Rights” [http://books.google.com/books?id=H4YBAwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false] Google Books pgs 14-15 // There are misunderstandings of the definition of legalization and decriminalization regarding sex work. Decriminalization of sex work is often assumed to be the same as the legalization of sex work. However, legalization and decriminalization are distinctly different legal approaches to sex work with different degrees of state control and sex worker control (Wottons 2006; World AIDS Campaign 2010). In a legalization model, the state is the main regulator of the industry and has the power to decide on the conditions of sex work . Unlicensed sexual services are illegal. Sex workers are less empowered because they are subject to various restrictions imposed by the state. However, where sex work is decriminalized, sex workers are more empowered and all activities of or related to consensual sexual services between adults are not criminal offenses. The decriminalization of sex work allows sex workers to have a range of work options. They can work as self-employed workers, independent contractors, or employees. They can choose to work in managed brothels, to be street based, to work at home, or to work in any combination of these. Sex works are thus enabled to mostly self-regulated the industry (Wottons 2006; World AIDS Campaign 2010). Regulation is necessarily part of legalization—they have to defend it. Weitzer 12 – sociology professor @ George Washington University Ronald, “Legalizing Prostitution: From Illicit Vice to Lawful Business” [http://books.google.com/books?id=cjJKlRQsEv0C&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false] Google Books pgs 76-7 // Legalization is defined here as legislation that provides mechanisms for government regulation of paid sex transactions after prostitution has been decriminalized. Regulation is what distinguishes legalization from simple decriminalization . Examples include the following: licensing of businesses, registration of workers, geographic restrictions (such as zoning is designated red-light districts or prohibitions near schools, churches, etc.), health requirements (e.g., mandatory condom use, periodic HIV and STD tests), age restrictions, and other rules for workers, managers, and clients. Prostitution is removed from the criminal law and regulated by civil law, yet the criminal law continues to apply to cases involving extortion, kidnapping, assault, rape, and other crimes. This distinction is the key controversy—the perm muddles the debate. Prostitutes’ Education Network no date “Prostitution Law Reform: Defining Terms” Bay Area Sex Worker Advocacy Network, Providing information about Sex Worker Rights and Related Issues; This website, a project of BAYSWAN, is specifically geared towards sex workers, activists, students and faculty. http://www.bayswan.org/defining.html There has been much debate over the last few decades about prostitution law reform. In the course of discussion, several terms are used to indicate current or preferred situations, alternatives and legal strategies. To understand the definitions of legalized, decriminalized, regulated prostitution, etc., we need to understand the context in which these terms are used . Definitions Legalisation and Decriminalisation according to Scarlet Alliance, Australia from PRINCIPLES FOR MODEL SEX INDUSTRY LEGISLATION Scarlet Alliance and the Australian Federation of AIDS Organisations Decriminalisation Decriminalisation refers to the removal of all criminal laws relating to the operation of the sex industry. The decriminalisation model aims to support occupational health and safety and workplace issues through existing legal and workplace mechanisms. Legalisation Refers to the use of criminal laws to regulate or control the sex industry by determining the legal conditions under which the sex industry can operate. Legalisation can be highly regulatory or merely define the operation of the various sectors of the sex industry. It can vary between rigid controls under legalised state controlled systems to privatising the sex industry within a legally defined framework. It is often accompanied by strict criminal penalties for sex industry businesses that operate outside the legal framework. Defining terms for contemporary discussion Although there have always been reformist efforts and movements concerning prostitution, the prostitutes' rights movement, as we know it today, began in the late 60's and early 70's. The difference between the contemporary prostitutes' movement and previous efforts is that the current movement has been defined in a large part by prostitutes themselves. Prostitute activists have defined prostitutes' legal status in specific ways since the beginning of the prostitutes' rights movement. The current movement includes a recognition of the rights of prostitutes to autonomy and self-regulation. Common definitions of legalization There is no official definition of legalized or decriminalized prostitution. Those who are not familiar with the contemporary discussion about prostitution law reform usually use the term "legalization" to mean any alternative to absolute criminalization, ranging from licensing of brothels to the lack of any laws about prostitution. Most references to law reform in the media and in other contemporary contexts use the term "legalization" to refer to any system that allows some prostitution. These common definitions of legalization are extremely broad . Conflicting interpretations of this term often cause confusion in a discussion of reform . Many (or most) societies that allow prostitution do so by giving the state control over the lives and businesses of those who work as prostitutes. Legalization often includes special taxes for prostitutes, restricting prostitutes to working in brothels or in certain zones, licenses, registration of prostitutes and government records of individual prostitutes, and health checks which often means punitive quarantine. The term legalization does not necessarily have to refer to the above sorts of regulations. In fact, in one commonly accepted definition of legalization, legal can simply mean that prostitution is not against the law. Legalization From sociological perspective, the term legalization usually refers to a system of criminal regulation and government control of prostitutes, wherein certain prostitutes are given licenses which permit them to work in specific and usually limited ways. Although legalization can also imply a decriminalized, autonomous system of prostitution, in reality, in most "legalized" systems the police are relegated the job of prostitution control through criminal codes. Laws regulate prostitutes businesses and lives, prescribing health checks and registration of health status (enforced by police and, often corrupt, medical agencies), telling prostitutes where they may or may not reside, prescribing full time employment for their lovers, etc. Prostitute activists use the term legalization to refer to systems of state control, which defines the term by the realities of the current situation, rather than by the broad implications of the term itself. Because of the range of definitions of legalization, it is difficult to use the term in a discussion of reform. When the general public concerned with civil rights, privacy, etc., call for "legalization," they may not be aware implications of that term, or of the problems inherent in many legalized systems. Legalization requires creating a licensing procedure for prostitution Radatz 9 – MA in Criminal Justice and Criminology Dana Lynn, “Systematic Approach to Prostitution Laws: A Literature Review and Further Suggestions” [http://commons.emich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1230&context=theses] May 10 Under a legalization policy, a country removes all criminal penalties surrounding prostitution but implements forms of regulation towards certain aspects of prostitution. Weitzer (1999) explains, “Legalization spells regulation of some kinds: licensing or registration, confining prostitution to red light districts, state-restricted brothels, mandatory medical exams, special business taxes, etc” (p. 87). The main principle behind legalization is the notion of harm reduction, meaning that “regulation is necessary to reduce some of the problems associated with prostitution” (Weitzer, p. 87). Similar to Weitzer, Shaver (1985) explains, “The underlying assumption here [the legalization policy] is that prostitution serves the different sexual needs of men and women and must be regulated so as to contain its worst side effects” (p. 494). Essentially, the difference between legalization and decriminalization is that legalization focuses on making prostitution a licensable entity, complete with restrictions, rules, and regulations , whereas decriminalization only implies some regulations but does not involve licensing. DISAD The aff’s creation of a legalized prostitution market trades-off with police monitoring efforts into unregulated prostitution markets---they’re key to prevent sex trafficking Wim Huisman & Edward R. Kleemans 14, PhD & Chair of Professor of Criminology at VU University Amsterdam AND PhD, Full Professor at the VU School of Criminology, Faculty of Law, VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands, “The challenges of fighting sex trafficking in the legalized prostitution market of the Netherlands,” Crime, Law and Social Change: An Interdisciplinary Journal, Springer *Note---text redacted by Joseph Lenart III. Georgetown Debate does not endorse the gendered language of this article. In three ways, the legalization and regulation of the prostitution sector can influence the capacity of the police (in terms of manpower) to fight sex trafficking: first, when legalization leads to an increase in the numbers of trafficked women working in the regulated sector; second, when monitoring the regulated sector drains capacity from investigating the unregulated sector; and, third, when monitoring drains the capacity for investigating cases of human trafficking. Evaluation studies show that the police play a pivotal role in monitoring the licensed sector and in carrying out inspections [1]. The downside of these efforts is that there is insufficient police capacity left to play a major monitoring and investigative role with regard to punishable forms of operation outside the licensed sector . Thus, the assumption that the new policy would allow the police more capacity to fight human trafficking has not come to fruition . What is more, the feeling in the prostitution sector is that licensed businesses are inspected more often than non-licensed businesses, a situation which undermines the willingness of operators of licensed businesses to adhere to the rules and complicates the efforts to combat human trafficking [1]. Internal evaluations made by the police also show that the licensed prostitution sector is not being fully monitored and that it takes a lot of effort to monitor the unregulated parts of the business [26, 27]. The monitoring of the unregulated sector was described as ‘inefficient’ and ‘ineffective’ [26: 101]. Many police forces limit themselves to incidental and reactive inspections. The internal evaluations also show that the money spent on police efforts to support local authorities is not always reimbursed. In some regional police forces, local authorities financed extra policeofficers. This can mean, however, that any increase in the police capacity to fight sex trafficking becomes dependent on the priority that local municipalities put on it. Turns the case---pimps will fight regulation to maintain high profit margins from trafficking---that cements a permanent illicit market that o/w the aff’s benefits Sheila Jeffreys 10, Professor in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne, “’Brothels without Walls’: the Escort Sector as a Problem for the Legalization of Prostitution,” Social Politics, 2010, Oxford Journals Legalization does not discourage crime groups from involvement in prostitution because of the considerable profits they can make from this industry. Crime groups are involved in the trafficking of women in particular and this aspect of the prostitution industry is causing the governments of the Netherlands and Germany to rethink their prostitution polices as these problems become more acute. The United Nations Organization on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) database in 2006 showed that the Netherlands and Germany are in the top ten countries that score very highly as destination countries, which are, in alphabetical order: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States. The majority of women trafficked to the Netherlands are from central and Eastern Europe, but also from Nigeria, China, and Sierra Leone (Department of State 2008). The percentage of number of women from China is rising. This is the case in Australia too, where until recently the overwhelming majority of trafficked women came from Thailand, but are now being replaced by Chinese and Korean women (Fergus 2005). Since Germany embarked upon legalization, concern about trafficking in that country has become more acute. The large majority of the estimated 300,000–400,000 prostituted women come from outside Germany (Day and Ward (eds) 2004). According to the International Organization for Migration, Russian women are the third largest group of victims of trafficking into Germany, after Lithuanian and Ukrainian women (Hughes 2002). One-third of the German police interviewed considered that the legalization of pimping in the 2002 Prostitution Act had made it harder for the police to monitor brothels and inspect them to deter trafficking, under age prostitution, and other forms of prostitution-related crime (Federal Ministry of Family Affairs 2007). In respect of trafficking, prostitution can never resemble other legal industries. The profits to be gained from the industry and ease with which vulnerable groups of women can be exploited, make trafficking an integral part of the supply chain in a way which is not the case with other occupations. The ease of using trafficked women may act as a deterrent to pimps from going legal. The fact that many of those involved in running the industry see no advantage, but rather a loss of revenue, is another insurmountable problem for legalizing regimes. In the Netherlands, “compliance” is a problem precisely because of the costs involved in joining the legal brothel sector (Daalder 2007). In Queensland, the PLA and the Crime Commission are faced with an acute dilemma. Precisely, the provisions in the legislation designed to keep organized crime and corruption out of the industry deter pimps and procurers from wishing to enter the legal industry . The reasons suggested are several. One is that the probity checks are too intrusive, which is problematic since any alleviation of their thoroughness would negate the aims of the legislation. Another is the expense. The license application process can cost up to 20,000$ and licensees are then likely to have to pay fees to renew licenses each year, and to pay tax and for other compliance expenses which the illegal industry does not face. Trafficking guarantees Al Qaeda terrorism---they’ll use the same smuggling lines to get to the US Colonel Sandra L. Keefer 6, Colonel – US Army, “Human Trafficking and the Impact on National Security for the United States,” Master’s Thesis for Strategic Studies Degree, US Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a448573.pdf Trafficking Linked With Terrorism Is there a link between terrorism and human trafficking? According to Christine Dolan, panelist at the recent “Terrorism Nexus” seminar hosted by The World Affairs Council of Washington, DC, the answer is a definitive, yes. 14 Trafficking and terrorism are linked. Terrorists use the transportation networks of smugglers and traffickers to move operatives. In many parts of the world, profits from drug trading provide funds for terrorism, and in certain regions of the world trafficking is a large and significant component of that economy. Examples of this include the Balkans, Southeast Asia, Philippines and parts of the former Soviet Union. In the Balkans, trafficking is a major source of profits for organized crime groups which have links to terrorists. In Southeast Asia and the Philippines, trafficking is significant enabling potential terrorists to move their money easily through the channels of the illicit economy. 15 The national and international enforcement environment changed significantly after the September 11, 2001 attacks. Today the conditions could be right for terrorist and human smugglers to join forces. Emphasis is now being placed on targeting alien smuggling organizations that present threats to our national security. This emphasis recognizes that terrorists and their associates are likely to align themselves with specific alien smuggling networks to obtain undetected entry into the U nited S tates. Three factors have created an environment in which terrorists and smuggling enterprises may combine their criminal efforts to pose a significant national and international threat. These factors include the fact that the criminal organizations involved are growing in volume and sophistication; and those same organizations’ developing the ability to exploit public corruption; and lax immigration controls in source and transit countries.16 The thread of trafficking runs through Al Qaeda’s tapestry of terror. Since the start of the war in Afghanistan, reports have indicated that the Taliban engaged in open abduction of women and girls, taking them as war booty. There are numerous accounts of forced marriages, rapes, women and girls forced to act as concubines, and numerous killings. Many of those girls who were not used as concubines were sold as sexual slaves to wealthy Arabs through contacts arranged by the Al Qaeda terrorist network. Proceeds from these sales allegedly helped keep the cash-strapped Taliban afloat.17 In the National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, President Bush wrote that “the United States will continue to work with our allies to disrupt the financing of terrorism. We will identify and block the sources of funding for terrorism.18 John P. Torres, deputy assistant director for smuggling and public safety at the United States Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, border security and claims that human smuggling and trafficking into the United States constituted a “significant risk to national security and public safety.” 19 He further stated that wellestablished smuggling and trafficking pipelines serve as a way for illegal aliens and criminals seeking entry into this country, many of whom easily could have been exploited by terrorist and extremist organizations looking to carry out violent acts. The United States is a primary target destination for smugglers and traffickers, which means that literally tens of thousands of men, women and children are entering this nation illegally each year – undocumented, undetected and unprotected. Untraced profits feed organized-crime activities, undermine government action and the rule of law, while allowing criminal networks to grow stronger, more resilient and more dangerous.20 The road to the “American Dream” for many illegal immigrants usually leads from home countries through Mexico and then into the United States. Although almost all of these illegal immigrants are merely looking for a better life for themselves and their families, world-wide human trafficking routes provide opportunity for those wishing harm to the United States easy access. In spite of international efforts to break up these human smuggling routes, there are still a number of avenues available whereby the potential terrorist can enter the U nited S tates.21 One of the most common routes is through Havana, Cuba where terrorists could be provided with false documents such as Central American or even European passports.22 The aff results in increased criminalization of prostitutes---drives it underground and makes it more dangerous---turns the entire aff Nicholas R. Larche 14, J.D., University of Detroit Mercy School of Law (anticipated May 2014), “VICTIMIZED BY THE STATE: HOW LEGISLATIVE INACTION HAS LED TO THE REVICTIMIZATION AND STIGMATIZATION OF VICTIMS OF SEX TRAFFICKING,” Seton Hall Legislative Journal, Volume 38, Issue 2, http://scholarship.shu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1067&context=shlj D. Can it Work Here? Whether the Nordic Model could be adopted by the U nited S tates is a fervently contested issue.192 Employing the mantra, “no demand, no supply,” advocacy groups and a number of legislators have sought to follow the Nordic Model, and “eradicate all prostitution” by increasing criminal penalties against “Johns”— “a [strategy] they believe will upend the market that fuels prostitution and sex trafficking.”193 However, critics suggest that translating the Nordic Model into an American context would present a plethora of social and institutional problems.194 Critics of the potential American adoption of the Nordic Model suggest that America “lacks the extensive services of [the Nordic] social welfare state,” which are considered imperative to those individuals exiting the commercial sex trade.195 Critics further suggest that the adoption would fail due to the dynamics of American politics and the desire of American politicians to not be viewed as “soft on crime or morally lax.”196 Finally, some theoreticians suggest that adopting such an approach would “drive the trade underground” and make the commercial sex trade more dangerous .197 Interestingly enough, some theoreticians suggest that “any uptick” in actions taken by law enforcement to pursue “Johns,” as would be necessary to implement the Nordic Model, would “inevitably result” in the “increased criminalization of those selling sex.” 198 As a result, these theoreticians postulate that the supposed “victim-centered” approach that is the Nordic Model would, in all probability, “disproportionately hurt” those it was intended to help, leaving victims “more vulnerable to trafficking and exploitation” due to their criminal records —the exact vulnerability of which thirty-six states in America fail to address. Turns the case---pimps will fight regulation to maintain high profit margins from trafficking---that cements a permanent illicit market that o/w the aff’s benefits Sheila Jeffreys 10, Professor in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne, “’Brothels without Walls’: the Escort Sector as a Problem for the Legalization of Prostitution,” Social Politics, 2010, Oxford Journals Legalization does not discourage crime groups from involvement in prostitution because of the considerable profits they can make from this industry. Crime groups are involved in the trafficking of women in particular and this aspect of the prostitution industry is causing the governments of the Netherlands and Germany to rethink their prostitution polices as these problems become more acute. The United Nations Organization on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) database in 2006 showed that the Netherlands and Germany are in the top ten countries that score very highly as destination countries, which are, in alphabetical order: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States. The majority of women trafficked to the Netherlands are from central and Eastern Europe, but also from Nigeria, China, and Sierra Leone (Department of State 2008). The percentage of number of women from China is rising. This is the case in Australia too, where until recently the overwhelming majority of trafficked women came from Thailand, but are now being replaced by Chinese and Korean women (Fergus 2005). Since Germany embarked upon legalization, concern about trafficking in that country has become more acute. The large majority of the estimated 300,000–400,000 prostituted women come from outside Germany (Day and Ward (eds) 2004). According to the International Organization for Migration, Russian women are the third largest group of victims of trafficking into Germany, after Lithuanian and Ukrainian women (Hughes 2002). One-third of the German police interviewed considered that the legalization of pimping in the 2002 Prostitution Act had made it harder for the police to monitor brothels and inspect them to deter trafficking, under age prostitution, and other forms of prostitution-related crime (Federal Ministry of Family Affairs 2007). In respect of trafficking, prostitution can never resemble other legal industries. The profits to be gained from the industry and ease with which vulnerable groups of women can be exploited, make trafficking an integral part of the supply chain in a way which is not the case with other occupations. The ease of using trafficked women may act as a deterrent to pimps from going legal. The fact that many of those involved in running the industry see no advantage, but rather a loss of revenue, is another insurmountable problem for legalizing regimes. In the Netherlands, “compliance” is a problem precisely because of the costs involved in joining the legal brothel sector (Daalder 2007). In Queensland, the PLA and the Crime Commission are faced with an acute dilemma. Precisely, the provisions in the legislation designed to keep organized crime and corruption out of the industry deter pimps and procurers from wishing to enter the legal industry . The reasons suggested are several. One is that the probity checks are too intrusive, which is problematic since any alleviation of their thoroughness would negate the aims of the legislation. Another is the expense. The license application process can cost up to 20,000$ and licensees are then likely to have to pay fees to renew licenses each year, and to pay tax and for other compliance expenses which the illegal industry does not face. Turns their K business---increases in illicit market trafficking usurp any benefit of a legal prostitution regime---cements stigma and violence against women Sheila Jeffreys 10, Professor in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne, “’Brothels without Walls’: the Escort Sector as a Problem for the Legalization of Prostitution,” Social Politics, 2010, Oxford Journals Similar concerns extend to physical and sexual violence as to sexual health. Prostituted women suffer two forms of physical violence, unpaid violence, which includes rape, beatings, and murder from male buyers, pimps, traffickers, and passers by that is not remunerated, as well as the ordinary everyday violence of unwanted and often painful penetration that is paid for. There is a great deal of evidence of the severe unpaid harms that women suffer in the form of psychological distress, broken bones, head injuries, sexual violence, and imprisonment (Farley 2004). Though these harms are usually understood to be particularly severe in street prostitution, studies show that escort prostitution involves similar risks (Farley 2004). Any advantage that legalization can offer in reducing the threat of this violence would only be available to a small minority of women in the industry, since most women in Australia, in Nevada, in the Netherlands, and Germany are prostituted in illegal sectors from the brothel to escort, strip club, and street prostitution (Wallman 2001). These harms may be alleviated to some extent in brothel systems, whether or not these are legalized, simply because the male buyers cannot be so anonymous and may be more circumspect about the violence they inflict. They are not eliminated . Thus, some legalized brothels install panic buttons for women to press when in fear of being assaulted, though women may not be able to reach the buttons, or at least not before the assault takes place. At the large, legalized, Daily Planet brothel in Melbourne, for instance, a bouncer has described how, if the button is pressed, he will rush up to the room and break down the locked door behind which a naked woman is likely to be being attacked (Everything But the Girls 1998). There is no evidence that legalized brothels provide alleviation of the harms that are involved in the ordinary everyday acts of penetration that the male buyers pay for, however, or the psychological humiliation and distress that prostituted women experience. Prostitutors use verbal violence such as saying to a woman, “On your knees, bitch,” language which is run of the mill in the pornography from which they learn the practice of prostituting women (Barclay 2001; Farley 2006). They grab women's bodies in degrading and painful ways during bookings, such as twisting nipples, and thrusting fingers into the woman's anus to show they want anal sex (Sullivan 2007). Women are subjected to the constant showing of pornography on the ceilings of the rooms in which they are prostituted in legal brothels. The psychological harms that result from the continual disassociation of mind and body needed to survive prostitution, and the routine dehumanization integral to the practice, commonly bear all the characteristics of post-traumatic stress disorder (Farley 2003, 2004). The Netherlands report states that legalization has not improved the situation of prostituted women . Rather their well being has “declined between 2001 and 2006 with regard to all measured aspects … the extent of distress has become higher, and the use of sedatives has increased” (Daalder 2007, 71). The greater distress may be related to a “decline in autonomy of prostitutes, mainly in clubs and escort agencies” and a decline in their income (Daalder 2007). The government report on the effectiveness of the Prostitution Act in Germany similarly concluded that the welfare of prostituted women was not improved, “As regards prostitutes' working conditions, hardly any measurable, positive impact has been observed in practice” (Federal Ministry for Family Affairs 2007, 79). Sex trafficking drives the global spread of HIV---drug-resistant strands take out their impact D Amanda Kloer 10, program associate of the American Bar Association’s AIDS Coordination Project in Washington, D.C., and writer for the End Human Trafficking cause at Change.org, “Sex Trafficking and HIV/AIDS: A Deadly Junction for Women,” Human Rights Magazine, Volume 37, Issue 2, Spring 2010, http://www.americanbar.org/publications/human_rights_magazine_home/human_rights_vol37_2010/sprin g2010/sex_trafficking_and_hiv_aids_a_deadly_junction_for_women_and_girls.html Sex Trafficking as a Facilitator of Global HIV Transmission While trafficked women and girls are individually at an increased risk for contracting HIV, sex trafficking as an international phenomenon is also a catalyst and facilitator of large-scale HIV transmission. According to AIDS prevention organization AVERT, in some parts of the world, such as West Africa, the AIDS epidemic appears to be driven in part by the commercial sex industry, including the abuse of those trafficked into it. AVERT found that 27.1 percent of people in the commercial sex industry in Dakar, Senegal, were infected with HIV in 2005. See AVERT, “Aids and Prostitution” (2010). Other studies have found commercial sex to be a significant factor in the AIDS epidemics in Ghana, Togo, and Burkina Faso. Id. Similarly, a 2008 study out of the Harvard School of Public Health found that 38 percent of women trafficked from Nepal to India for sex were returned to Nepal HIV-positive. See Harvard In the U nited S tates, there are both high rates of sexual exploitation of African American teen girls within the commercial sex industry and by family members and high rates of HIV infection among African American females. In addition to the sexual risk factors, high rates of injection drug use within the commercial sex industry also increase the risk of infection and transmission on a global scale .d Human trafficking within the commercial sex industry, however, greatly exacerbates the spread of HIV infections. Traffickers frequently transport victims between cities or countries to both disorient the victims and provide “fresh faces” for the men who buy sexual services from them. For example, “Corina” was trafficked in Public Heath Review, Trafficked (2007). her home country of Moldova, where she likely contracted HIV. Her trafficker then sold her in London, Prague, New York, and Miami for a month each to have sex with ten to twenty men per night. As a trafficking victim, Corina was unable to seek testing or treatment for her HIV, and may have unknowingly and unwillingly spread the disease. Corina also began using drugs to mask the pain of sexual slavery. Women and girls trafficked for sex may turn to drugs and alcohol, including injection drugs, thus increasing their risk of infection and widespread transmission. Another example of how sex trafficking can spread HIV is the cultural belief in some parts of the world that sex with a virgin can cure HIV or AIDS. HIV-positive men who believe this myth will seek out traffickers to procure a virgin for them, often a child. They then have unprotected sex with that virgin, and in the process will sometimes transmit the disease . However, the transmission factor of this encounter is multiplied exponentially, because after this sexual contact, the man, thinking himself cured, may have unprotected sex with other partners. The child he used, now possibly infected, will often continue to be trafficked for sex. In these cases, HIV transmission is not merely a byproduct of sex with a trafficking victim, but is the impetus for the trafficking and the sexual contact . It is also an action that can spread the disease exponentially . Human trafficking has also been implicated as a possible catalyst for the mutation of HIV into multiple subtypes. Dr. Chris Beyer of J ohns H opkins U niversity has linked sex trafficking to both the spread and mutation of HIV, stating that the commercial sex industry in general, and sex trafficking in particular, are facilitating the global dispersion of various (and possibly drug-resistant ) HIV subtypes. Another factor in the creation of mutations is inconsistent treatment for people infected with HIV. Even those few trafficking victims who are able to seek testing and treatment for their HIV may suffer repeated interruptions in care because of lack of access, lack of education, or re-trafficking. The role of sex trafficking in the mutation of HIV is extremely dangerous and must be recognized in the global fight against AIDS. 2NC LINK WALL A) Trades-off with police investigations into the illicit market Wim Huisman & Edward R. Kleemans 14, PhD & Chair of Professor of Criminology at VU University Amsterdam AND PhD, Full Professor at the VU School of Criminology, Faculty of Law, VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands, “The challenges of fighting sex trafficking in the legalized prostitution market of the Netherlands,” Crime, Law and Social Change: An Interdisciplinary Journal, Springer Regulatory enforcement by the city administration is still largely dependent on criminal investigations made by the police to uncover the legal façades of organized crime. While the city administration and the tax authority try to deal with brothel owners and prostitutes as legitimate entrepreneurs, the prostitution business retains many characteristics of an illegitimate market. This hinders regulation and monitoring . Yet, in turn, to be able to investigate and prosecute sex traffickers, the police are reliant the information provided by regulators. The regulation has hidden the legalized sector from the view of the criminal justice system, while human trafficking still thrives behind the legal façades of a legalized prostitution sector . Brothels can even function as legalized outlets for victims of sex trafficking. Monitoring the regulated sector drains capacity away, which could alternatively be devoted to criminal investigation and other tasks, thus preventing the police from focusing on the investigation of sex trafficking in unregulated forms of prostitution. Local authorities have to be the eyes and ears of the criminal justice system if sex trafficking is to be detected; but, they do not always accept this responsibility. Legal limitations and the differing aims of regulatory enforcement and criminal justice hinder effective collaboration between local authorities and criminal justice agencies. This paper, therefore, concludes that the legalization and regulation of the prostitution sector has not driven out organized crime. On the contrary, fighting sex trafficking using the criminal justice system may even be harder in the legalized prostitution sector. B) All empirics go neg Cho et al. 13 (Seo-Young Cho, junior professor of economics and head of the Empirical Institutional Economics group at the University of Marburg and former post-doctoral researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research, Axel Dreher, Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics at the University of Heidelberg, Eric Neumayer, Department of Geography and Enevironment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, “Does Legalized Prostitution Increase Human Trafficking?”, World Development, 41 (1), 2013, pp. 67-82, http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/45198/1/Neumayer_Legalized_Prostitution_Increase_2012.pdf) 7. CONCLUSION This paper has investigated the impact of legalized prostitution on inflows of human trafficking. According to economic theory, there are two effects of unknown magnitude. The scale effect of legalizing prostitution leads to an expansion of the prostitution market and thus an increase in human trafficking, while the substitution effect reduces demand for trafficked prostitutes by favoring prostitutes who have legal residence in a country. Our quantitative empirical analysis for a cross-section of up to 150 countries shows that the scale effect dominates the substitution effect. On average, countries with legalized prostitution experience a larger degree of reported human trafficking inflows. We have corroborated this quantitative evidence with three brief case studies of Sweden, Denmark and Germany. Consistent with the results from our quantitative analysis, the legalization of prostitution has led to substantial scale effects in these cases. Both the cross-country comparisons among Sweden, Denmark and Germany, with their different prostitution regimes, as well as the temporal comparison within Germany before and after the further legalization of prostitution, suggest that any compositional changes in the share of trafficked individuals among all prostitutes have been small and the substitution effect has therefore been dominated by the scale effect. Naturally, this qualitative evidence is also somewhat tentative as there is no “smoking gun” proving that the scale effect dominates the substitution effect and that the legalization of prostitution definitely increases inward trafficking flows. The problem here lies in the clandestine nature of both the prostitution and trafficking markets, making it difficult, perhaps impossible, to find hard evidence establishing this relationship. Our central finding, i.e., that countries with legalized prostitution experience a larger reported incidence of trafficking inflows, is therefore best regarded as being based on the most reliable existing data, but needs to be subjected to future scrutiny. More research in this area is definitely warranted, but it will require the collection of more reliable data to establish firmer conclusions. Link o/w the link turn---legalization normalizes violence against prostitutes despite the aff’s “best intentions” Brynn N.H. Jacobson 14, J.D. Candidate. Seattle University School of Law, 2014; B.A., Political Science, University of Washington, “COMMENT: Addressing the Tension Between the Dual Identities of the American Prostitute: Criminal and Victim; How Problem-Solving Courts Can Help,” Seattle University Law Review, 37 Seattle Univ. L. R. 1023, Spring 2014, Lexis Violence is the norm for women in prostitution; incest, sexual harassment, verbal abuse, stalking, rape, battering, and torture are points on a continuum of violence, all of which occur regularly in prostitution. By definition, prostitution involves the purchase of sexual power over another--a practice that is inherently exploitative and naturally fosters sexual violence. n192 Legalized prostitution shows that the state allows people to be bought and dominated for personal pleasure, and legitimizes their commodification , which is an "unconscionable abdication of the state's responsibility to protect its citizens." n193 Prostitutes are social outsiders existing without honor or public worth, eventually losing their identity by becoming what their exploiters want them to be. n194 As discussed above, the most vulnerable [*1045] among us tend to be exploited through prostitution and therefore require the most protection; legalization is society's abdication of its responsibility to protect those populations . Shame, stigmatization, violence, and coercion are experienced by prostitutes in places where prostitution is both legal and illegal, demonstrating that the violent and exploitative nature of prostitution cannot be alleviated through its legal status. Ultimately, the normalization of prostitution and sexual exploitation must be seen as an inevitable social evil. n195 "Prostitution is not a sin, it is a social injustice," said Norma Ramos of the Coalition Against Trafficking in Women. n196 "Legalization leads to an expansion of the sexploitation industry and protects no one. You don't tax a human rights abuse; you abolish it." n197 Legalization does not remove the stigma of prostitution and does not protect women from violence. n198 Prostitution myths, which conceive of the nature of prostitution as harmless, are akin to rape myths and result from attitudes that consider sexual violence to be normal. n199 On a moral level, society cannot condone violence against women and children, and unfortunately, despite some of the good intentions surrounding legalization, such exploitation becomes normal --a result which cannot be ignored. Their ev doesn’t assume escort prostitution or recent industry changes---pimps will resist any legal changes---dooms the aff to failure Sheila Jeffreys 10, Professor in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne, “’Brothels without Walls’: the Escort Sector as a Problem for the Legalization of Prostitution,” Social Politics, 2010, Oxford Journals Policy-makers and participants in discussions as to the most effective way to regulate prostitution need to consider how the industry is changing. Brothels with walls, which can be subjected to monitoring and the creation of OHS plans and panic buttons in rooms, are becoming a minority form of prostitution. In legalized regimes, this is because sex industrialists do not want the expense or the restrictions involved in becoming legal. Also, escort prostitution can easily be organized with new electronic technologies such as mobile phones and the Internet, and it can be staffed by the pimps with trafficked women without attracting the attention that might result from placing these women in brothels. Escort prostitution manifestly challenges the expressed aims of legalizing regimes, especially those which speak of reducing violence against women and organized crime. To the extent that legalization is based upon a historic notion of prostitution, it is already out of date as a strategy for dealing with the social harms that prostitution presents and provides another reason for re-evaluating this policy. 1NC POLITICS Dems win now—state by state polls Killian, 9/16 (Political Columnist-The Daily Beast, “Meet the One Numbers-Cruncher Who Foresees Democrats Holding the Senate,” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/16/meet-the-one-numbers-cruncherwho-foresees-democrats-holding-the-senate.html) He’s not as well-known as Nate Silver, but Princeton’s Sam Wang has a method, too, and he sees Democrats holding (barely) the upper chamber. The list of pundits, political analysts, and numberscrunchers who are predicting Republicans will win control of the Senate in November is long, including Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight. The folks at The New York Times’ The Upshot are saying it could be a tie. But Sam Wang of Princeton stands almost alone in forecasting that the Democrats will just barely hold their Senate majority. Wang says he thinks the Democrats have a 70 percent chance of holding control of the Senate. As of Monday afternoon, Nate Silver thinks the Republicans have a 58 percent chance of winning, and The Upshot gives Republicans a 52 percent chance now calling it a tossup. Wang is a 47-year-old professor of neuroscience and molecular biology at Princeton who uses advanced statistical methods to study how brain circuits work. He is the author of two books on the brain and his recent work focuses on autism. Politics, he says, is just kind of a hobby. “It’s a relatively easy problem compared with the other things I do,” he told me. He started dabbling in politics in 2004 when he devised a computer program to aggregate and analyze polling data on the presidential race and in 2008 he founded the Princeton Election Consortium, a webpage featuring his modeling and blogs. In 2012, his statistical analysis correctly predicted the presidential vote in 49 of 50 states and all 10 competitive Senate races including Montana and North Dakota—which, he likes to point out, Nate Silver got wrong . A bit of a rivalry has developed between the two men. Wang refers to Silver as “the king of the nerds,” and while it may take one to know one, Silver seems a little irritated by Wang encroaching on his turf. He has dissed Wang’s Senate call and in a recent appearance on WNYC said Wang uses “arbitrary assumptions,” which Wang calls “an out-and-out falsehood.” Silver also said he “would like to place a large wager against that guy,” not even bothering to mention Wang by name—reminiscent of the “I did not have sex with that woman” sort of dismissal. Wang’s response: he was more accurate than Silver in 2012 and wants to “let the math do the talking.” If Silver turns out to be wrong about this election Wang told me Silver “can eat a bug.” As Brian Lehrer of WNYC said on his show Friday—“Math Fight!!!” What Wang does differently than Silver and other prognosticators is base his analysis only on the polling data for each Senate race. Everyone else uses other factors including their own judgment to try to enhance the accuracy of their predictions including things like Barack Obama’s popularity in different states, economic indicators, Democratic and Republican favorability, and turnout predictions. Wang’s model uses an 80line meta-analysis program he designed that takes all of the available polls and aggregates them to get a statistical snapshot of what is happening. Although not every poll is reliable, Wang says even though individual pollsters can have biases and make mistakes, if you add all of the polls together they are very good at predicting outcomes. “Let the statistics do their job and get out of their way and don’t put a finger on the scale,” says Wang in describing his method. And this year, says Wang, those polls right now are telling him that the Democrats are going to emerge from the election with a 50-seat majority, for a net loss of five. Since Vice President Joe Biden is the Senate’s presiding officer and tiebreaking vote, the Democrats only have to win 50 seats to retain control while the Republicans have to win 51. Women adamantly opposed to legalized prostitution Salam, 14 (Slate Columnist, It’s Time for Legalized Prostitution, 7/30, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/07/legalized_prostitution_there_s_no_way_t o_end_demand_for_sex_work_so_why.html There is relatively little polling on how Americans feel about legalizing the buying and selling of sex. The main reason, presumably, is that outside of a few rural counties in Nevada, the idea seems exotic, strange, and very far off the political radar. Back in 2012, however, YouGov found that legalization was surprisingly popular: While 48 percent of respondents said that prostitution should definitely or probably remain illegal, 38 percent of Americans said it should definitely or probably be legalized, with the remaining 13 percent on the fence. Far more respondents maintained that prostitution should “definitely not” be legalized (31 percent) than that it definitely should (12 percent), and this intensity of opinion does matter, as we’ve learned from the debate over gun rights and other hotly contested issues. Intriguingly, a substantial majority of women (57 percent) opposed legalization, while only 40 percent of men felt the same way. Key to Dem win Burk, 9/17 (Director-- Corporate Accountability Project for the National Council of Women's Organizations, National View: This election puts women in the driver's seat, http://www.southcoasttoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20140917/OPINION/409170359/1/NEWSMAP) Let's be clear. As the majority of the population, the majority of registered voters and the majority of those who actually show up at the polls, women can determine the outcome of any election. In a year when abortion restrictions were piled on at the state level, the Supreme Court ruled that corporations can deny employees birth control coverage and equal pay legislation was stymied in the Senate by a Republican filibuster, this demographic reality could boost female Democratic candidates and spell trouble for Republicans up and down the tickets. Female voters could tip the balance for Democrats in several highprofile Senate races that Republicans are counting on to take back the majority. Michelle Nunn, running in Georgia as a moderate who can mend fences, has a commanding lead with women (polls show that women favor her over GOP opponent David Perdue by 52 percent to 34 percent) and could flip the seat being vacated by Republican Saxby Chambliss. The picture isn't so clear in Kentucky, where incumbent Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4 percentage points overall, while Grimes tops him with women by 7 points. However, when asked which candidate would improve the lives of women, respondents chose Grimes by a 21-point margin. Likely voters with an income of less than $40,000 (undoubtedly mostly female, since women are the majority of low earners) favored Grimes by 17 points. One race where women could, but might not, make a difference is the contest for governor of Texas. Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis rocketed to national prominence last year when she mounted an 11-hour filibuster against punitive abortion restrictions (which later passed). Curiously, despite more than 20 abortion clinic closings in Texas in the past few months and ongoing legal challenges by women's groups, Davis has generally shied away from the issue that made her famous before she got on the campaign trail. Urging her early on to move abortion rights to the top of her agenda, the Texas Observer pointed out that a key group in 2014 will be suburban women who vote in high numbers and tend to support Republican candidates. And those women are some of the strongest abortion rights backers in the Lone Star state's electorate, with 44 percent believing that abortion should always be accessible. Trailing anti-abortion opponent Greg Abbott by 18 percentage points in the latest poll, Davis broke her near-silence in a dramatic way in early September. She released a campaign memoir with poignant language revealing that she has had two abortions, both for compelling medical reasons. No polls have emerged since the revelation, but she's been labeled "abortion Barbie" by opponents before. Whether the tactic will be seen as a dirty trick now is anybody's guess. These three races notwithstanding, there's a big question as to whether the Republican "War on Women" tarnished the party so much with female voters in 2012 it can't recover enough to tip the balance in 2014. Democrats have made sure women haven't forgotten about gaffes from past candidates about "legitimate rape" and how pregnancy from rape is "something God intended." And then there's the much-ridiculed effort to educate candidates on how to talk to women — you know, speak to them like your wives and daughters. This is no change in policy, mind you, just a campaign that's clumsily pandering to women. And it's no secret that women have been deserting the GOP for years. More women have registered as Democrats than Republicans since 1972, and the 2012 presidential election produced the largest gender gap in history. It doesn't look like anything has changed. A detailed report recently commissioned by two major Republican groups concluded that female voters view the party as "intolerant," "lacking in compassion" and "stuck in the past." Still, most pollsters are rating the chances of the Republicans winning a Senate majority in November as a tossup. If women get together, turn out strongly, and vote their own interests, the GOP will have nothing to celebrate on Election Day. GOP takeover causes Keystone approval and EPA rollback Alexander Bolton, The Hill, 9/12/14, GOP Senate's first 100 days, thehill.com/homenews/senate/217518-senate-gops-first-100-days Republicans are putting together an agenda for the first 100 days of 2015 in case they win control of the Senate. Authorizing the Keystone XL oil pipeline, approving “fast-track” trade authority, wiping out proposed environmental “Those would all be positive things. You could come up with a list of very positive things and all of us are thinking about those,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who is poised to become chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee under a GOP takeover. Other Republicans echoed Corker. “Those are four things that could happen that I believe would be great for the economy and enable us to move forward on a bipartisan basis,” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) said during a Thursday breakfast sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor. GOP senators insist they are not “measuring the drapes” after six years in the minority. Still, they’re preparing for what could be a brief, intense window of activity before 2016 presidential politics begin to dominate the landscape. “We will have to be prepared if we are in a position to govern,” Corker said. “You got to think about those things you’d like to produce.” To move their objectives, Senate Republicans must win in November and then work with a Democratic minority. Even in a best- case scenario, the party will be well short of a 60-plus majority able to block Democratic filibusters. But Republicans believe many of their priorities could be embraced by Democrats. Legislation endorsing the Keystone pipeline included Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) among its co-sponsors. And a bill to repeal the medical device tax has six Democratic cosponsors, including Sens. Al Franken (Minn.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Bob Casey (Pa.), Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Kay Hagan (N.C.) and Donnelly. “We should be able to do that in the first 30 days,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said of the measure. On regulatory reform, they note that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) halted action on the energy and water development appropriations bill earlier this year because he feared centrist Democrats were inclined to support an amendment curbing regulations on coal. Centrist Democrat Joe Manchin (W.Va.) introduced legislation at the beginning of the year requiring that new greenhouse gas standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency be realistically achievable by coal-fired power plants. Portman has introduced legislation that would require independent agencies to publish the assessed costs and benefits of proposed new rules deemed to be economically significant. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner (D-W.Va.) has cosponsored the measure. Trade is another possible area of bipartisanship — with the president. President Obama called for bipartisan trade promotion authority in his State of the Union address in January, though Reid, who has a close relationship with organized labor, put the kibosh on the request by declaring his opposition to “fast-track.” Sen. Roy Blunt (Mo.), a member of the Republican leadership, said Obama might back both Keystone and fast-track legislation approved by a GOP Senate. “Both of them if they were on his desk would be hard things for the president not to agree on,” he said. Republicans say they want to pass a budget in the first half of next year that would include special procedural instructions known as reconciliation to smooth the way for broader tax reform and entitlement reform. Under reconciliation, the majority party can pass legislation through the Senate with only a simple-majority vote instead of the 60 votes usually required. Democrats used it in 2010 to pass changes to the Affordable Care Act. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), who is poised to become chairman of the Budget Committee if the Senate flips, said the majority party “has an obligation to lay out a financial plan for America.” Portman, who served as director of the Office of Management and Budget under former President George W. Bush, said special procedural rules in the budget could “provide for something on the revenue side, which could lead to tax reform [and] something on the spending side, which could lead to some of the necessary changes to our incredibly important but unsustainable entitlement reform.” Sessions said he hopes Democrats who pursued a grand bargain on tax and entitlement reform in 2011 could be persuaded to sit down at the negotiating table next year. “We’re going to be working toward it,” he said of entitlement reform. “There’s no doubt about it that serious legislative reform of things like Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlement programs, food stamps, would need some bipartisan support.” Senate Republicans want to dispel the image painted by Democrats over the past four years that they are obstructionists bent on grinding government to a halt. They want to show they can get legislation passed after years of frustrating gridlock. “One guy is blocking all the legislation — that’s the majority leader. If we get rid of him, then the spigot opens an we start passing legislation again,” said a Republican leadership aide, referring to Reid. Keystone approval causes fast, catastrophic climate change Joe Romm, Think Progress, 6/5/11, James Hansen slams Keystone XL Canada-U.S. Pipeline: “Exploitation of tar sands would make it implausible to stabilize climate and avoid disastrous global climate impacts”, thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/05/236978/james-hansen-keystone-pipeline-tarsands-climate/ The Canadian tar sands are substantially dirtier than conventional oil as the chart above shows (longer analysis here). They may contain enough carbon-intensive fuel to make stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at non-catastrophic levels all but impossible. And that is the point of Dr. James Hansen in a must-read essay on the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline to bring that dirty fuel into this country, “Silence Is Deadly: I’m Speaking Out Against Canada-U.S. Tar Sands Pipeline.” Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been right longer about the climate than just about anyone else (see “Right for 27 years: 1981 Hansen study finds warming trend that could raise sea levels“). So he deserves to be heard. Here is his essay, to which I’ve added some commentary with links: The U.S. Department of State seems likely to approve a huge pipeline, known as Keystone XL to carry tar sands oil (about 830,000 barrels per day) to Texas refineries unless sufficient objections are raised. The scientific community needs to get involved in this fray now. If this project gains approval, it will become exceedingly difficult to control the tar sands monster. The environmental impacts of tar sands development include: irreversible effects on biodiversity and the natural environment, reduced water quality, destruction of fragile pristine Boreal Forest and associated wetlands, aquatic and watershed mismanagement, habitat fragmentation, habitat loss, disruption to life cycles of endemic wildlife particularly bird and Caribou migration, fish deformities and negative impacts on the human health in downstream communities. Although there are multiple objections to tar sands development and the pipeline, including destruction of the environment in Canada, and the likelihood of spills along the pipeline’s pathway, such objections, by themselves, are very unlikely to stop the project. For more on the pipeline controversy, see “WikiLeaks reveals State Department discord over U.S. support for Canadian tar sands oil pipeline.” An overwhelming objection is that exploitation of tar sands would make it implausible to stabilize climate and avoid disastrous global climate impacts. The tar sands are estimated (e.g., see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) to contain at least 400 GtC (equivalent to about 200 ppm CO2). Easily available reserves of conventional oil and gas are enough to take atmospheric CO2 well above 400 ppm, which is unsafe for life on earth. However, if emissions from coal are phased out over the next few decades and if unconventional fossil fuels including tar sands are left in the ground, it is conceivable to stabilize earth’s climate. Extinction Flournoy 12 (Citing Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA scientist at the Goddard Space Flight Center, in 2012, Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College @ Ohio University, Former Associate Dean @ State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications @ Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, Citing Dr. "Solar Power Satellites," Chapter 2: What Are the Principal Sunsat Services and Markets?, January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book) In the Online Journal of Space Communication, Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA scientist at Goddard Space Flight Center, a research center in the forefront of science of space and Earth, writes, “The evidence of global warming is alarming,” noting the potential for a catastrophic planetary climate change is real and troubling (Hsu 2010). Hsu and his NASA colleagues were engaged in monitoring and analyzing cli- mate changes on a global scale, through which they received first-hand scientific information and data relating to global warming issues, including the dynamics of polar ice cap melting. After discussing this research with colleagues who were world experts on the subject, he wrote: I now have no doubt global temperatures are rising, and that global warming is a serious problem confronting all of humanity. No matter whether these trends are due to human interference or to the cosmic cycling of our solar system, there are two basic facts that are crystal clear: (a) there is overwhelming scientific evidence showing positive correlations between the level of CO2 concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere with respect to the historical fluctuations of global temperature changes; and (b) the overwhelming majority of the world’s scientific community is in agreement about the risks of a potential catastrophic global climate change. That is, if we humans continue to ignore this problem and do noth- ing, if we continue dumping huge quantities of greenhouse gases into Earth’s biosphere, humanity will be at dire risk (Hsu 2010). As a technology risk assessment expert, Hsu says he can show with some confi- dence that the planet will face more risk doing nothing to curb its fossil-based energy addictions than it will in making a fundamental shift in its energy supply. “This,” he writes, “is because the risks of a catastrophic anthropogenic climate change can be potentially the extinction of human species, a risk that is simply too high for us to take any chances” (Hsu 2010). It was this NASA scientist’s conclusion that humankind must now embark on the next era of “sustainable energy consumption and re-supply, the most obvious source of which is the mighty energy resource of our Sun” (Hsu 2010) (Fig. 2.1).