Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association
Adelaide, 16 April 2007
The Future Environment for
Energy Business
Jesse H. Ausubel
Program for the Human Environment
The Rockefeller University, New York City http://phe.rockefeller.edu
Acknowledgements:C. Marchetti, N. Victor, P. Waggoner, E. Yantovski

A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

Carbon Atoms per Hydrogen Atom in Hydrocarbons
Evolution from Wood to Methane Decarbonizes
(water removed; charcoal pure C)
Source: Ausubel, 2007

100
Decarbonization
Evolution of C:H Ratio in Global Fuel Mix
10
Wood C:H = 10:1
Coal C:H = 2:1
C:H
1
Oil C:H = 1:2
Methane C:H = 1:4
0.1
Methane Economy
NonFossil Hydrogen
Hydrogen Economy
2050 2100 2150
0.01
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
When viewed as market substitution, decarbonization is a 300-year process for H to rise from 10% to 90% market share, midpoint 1935
Source: Ausubel 2007, after Ausubel, 1996 and Marchetti, 1985

Decarbonization of Global Primary Energy
Viewed as Declining Carbon Intensity of All Primary Energy
25
Carbon/
Energy kg /GJ
20
15
35
30
10
5
0
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

Fuel Mass per Energy of Hydrocarbons economies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density and thus decarbonization
Fuel/
Energy kg/GJ
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
B ro w n
C oa l B
B ro w n
C oa l A
Fi re w oo d
B la ck
C oa l D
B la ck
C oa l C
B la ck
C oa l B
B la ck
C oa l A
C ru de
O il
LH
V
C ru de
O il
H
H
V
LP
G
N at ur al
G as
Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

Earth Luminosity 1996
Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain version of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System
(DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans
J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7)
Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp
Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004

100
10
US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range)
Total (average per decade)
Cars (
+ Buses + Motorcycles
)
Walking Air
1
Trains
0.1
Horses
0.01
1880 1900 1920 1940
Year
1960 1980 2000
J. Ausubel, P. Meyer, N. Victor, 2007
Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989; US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2006

Methane-fueled Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP)
Temperature up to 1,500 C, pressure to 400 atm
A spigot in the lower left might draw off the carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004

Bankside Power Station, London
Opened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000
100m tall
“Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares
Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10 th the space
Source: Ausubel 2004

Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER
J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004
US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s
Dell laptop, 2004
Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant
(date unknown)
Delivery of General Electric
480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000

Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland

A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m Source: ChEss
AquaPix, Bob Carney Bruce Strickrott Ian MacDonald Ian MacDonald

Storegga, Norway, 120 km offshore, 1000 m deep
Ormen Lange gas field, without conventional offshore platforms
Production expected October 2007

photographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft

Garbage collected in 4000 m depth in Ierapetra Basin south of Crete Source: CEDAMAR

There are no ocean deserts!
Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.

10 6
USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003 semi-log scale
10 5
10 4
1965 1970 1975 1980
Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006

Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003
10
1
10,000 100,000
Annual production, millions of cubic feet
1,000,000
J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005

USA: Fossil Fuel Production Prices and H2 Price Estimates, 1970-2003
25
20
15
10
5
Coal
Gas
Crude Oil
H2
Motor Gasoline
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005

fuel mass per energy including nuclear fuels economies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density, thus decarbonization
& thus finally nuclear sources 10,000 X more compact than hydrocarbons
1.00E+08
Fuel/
Energy kg/GJ 10
10
10
10
Uranium
10
B ro w n
C oa ls
Fi re w oo d
B la ck
C oa ls
C ru de
O ils
LP
G
N at ur al
G as
H yd ro ge n
N at ur al
L
W
R
N at ur al
C
A
N
D
U he d
E nr ic
3.
5%
L
W
R
N at ur al
F
B
R
To produce with solar cells the energy generated in 1 liter of core of a nuclear reactor, one needs ~ 1 hectare (10,000 square meters) of solar cells!
Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

• Hydro:
– Hoover Dam
– Hydro: All US dams
– Hydro: Ontario
• Biomass:
– ethanol from corn (net)
– New England forest
– Ocean biomass
– Corn (whole plant)
– Sugar cane (intensively farmed)
• Wind
• Solar thermal (actual)
0.0014
0.0049
0.012
0.047
0.12
0.6
0.75
3.7
1.2
3.2
Sources: Ausubel, Hayden

Diablo Canyon
2200 MW
Power Plant
5 Miles
10% Wind
Equivalent
Source: P. Grant

2017: Australian Methane Production and Exploration Association
Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007, Nature magazine, Stofan et al.
Text and figures posted at http://phe.rockefeller.edu