School of Business Montclair State University Upper Montclair, New Jersey 07043 The Role of Creative Innovation in Economic Growth: Some International Comparisons March 2007 Phillip LeBel Professor of Economics School of Business Department of Economics and Finance Montclair State University Upper Montclair, New Jersey 07043 Lebelp@mail.montclair.edu Abstract Export-driven policies in East Asia have thus far produced dramatic increases in real per capita income. At the same time, sustainable growth requires that technological innovation proceed at comparable rates if mutual gains from globalization are to be realized. In this paper, we derive a measure of innovation and test the extent to which institutional policy choices enhance or delay its diffusion. To do so we use a panel regression model, with data on a sample of countries for the 1980-2005 period. Our findings provide empirical evidence of the positive role of creative innovation in economic growth, and from which we derive several basic policy conclusions. Key words: economic growth, innovation, risk, institutional governance JEL codes: P48, 038, D02, D73 Growth Accounting: 1. Y=f(L,K,T) 2. Y=A(K,L) 3. R=s/k 4. Y=f(S,TRDEP) Optimal Innovation: r r 5. U e y( )dt e (t, )At x d t 0 0 0 6. 7. 8. ( n ) t n (t, ) e t! A0 (L n) a U(n) r n( 1) 1 1 L n* 1 r n* 1 9. g* n* ln 10. INNOVINDEX = (Per Capita Scientific Citations+Per Capita Net Royalty Ratio)/2 11. PPPRPCGDP = f(GNSGDP, TRDEP, RCRISK, INNOVATION) Table 1 Global Sample Basic Growth Equations Dependent Variable: PPPRPCGDP Fixed None Fixed None Fixed None C 6,061.29 318.27 4,461.10 7,616.09 4,461.10 7,616.09 GNSGDP 8.61 235.88 3.45 56.98 3.45 56.98 t (4.207) (33.915) (2.073) (16.182) (2.073) (16.182) TRDEP 28.21 33.76 14.44 14.15 14.44 14.15 t (26.551) (16.557) (17.344) (9.973) (17.344) (9.973) PCSCITES 27.09 24.61 t (55.021) (81.988) RCCRISK -17.02 -139.44 -17.02 -139.44 t (14.706) (38.512) (14.706) (38.512) INNOVINDEX 54.17 49.23 t (55.021) (81.988) Adjus ted R-s quared 0.9598 0.6655 0.9781 0.8510 0.9781 0.8510 F-Statis tic 615.45 2,664.04 1,129.94 3,823.33 1,129.94 3,823.33 Number of Cros s Sections 103 103 103 103 103 103 Number of Obs ervations 2678 2678 2678 2678 2678 2678 Method PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS Cross -Section Fixed None Fixed None Fixed None Period None None None None None None GLS Weights CS CS CS CS CS CS Granger null-values GNSGDP 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 pr. (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) TRDEP 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 pr. (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) RRCCRISK 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 pr. (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) PCSCITES 16.30 16.30 pr. (0.000) (0.000) INNOVINDEX 16.30 16.30 pr. (0.000) (0.000) Figure 1 Expanded Model of Institutional Innovation Global Innovation Institutional Model PPPRPCGDP GNSGDP 4.76 (.0087) CORRUPAF 12.05 (.0000) JUDINDF 5.27 (.0052) RESIMPCOVRATIO 25.47 (.0000) RCCRISKF 10.09 (.0000) TRDEP 40.23 (.0000) INNOVINDEXF 16.50 (.0000) ECFREEF 12.28 (.0000) FDIGDP 2.84 (.0584) NETMIGPOPRATIO .90 (.4049) CORRUPAF 11.39 (.0000) PROPRT 10.40 (.0000) PROPRT 30.38 (.0000) JUDINDF 23.93 (.0000) POLRTS 7.07 (.0009) Table 2 Global Sample Expanded Model Regression Estimates Dependent Variable: PPPRPCGDP Fixed None Fixed None Fixed None C -516.68 -98.46 4,049.27 14,818.64 739.39 15,021.03 GNSGDP 7.93 100.57 10.15 19.42 6.88 16.79 t (3.836) (28.043) (6.854) (7.083) (3.291) (5.821) TRDEP 26.59 32.38 16.71 4.12 26.22 4.04 t (24.644) (22.825) (21.417) (3.800) (24.238) (3.514) PCSCITES 27.11 19.36 t (54.164) (61.734) RCCRISKF -13.30 -279.39 -15.39 282.78 t (3.722) (57.924) (3.090) (54.758) INNOVINDEXF 112.04 60.39 101.10 37.70 t (7.649) (83.282) (6.757) (50.008) Adjusted R-squared 0.9571 0.7506 0.9788 0.8671 0.9576 0.8098 F-Statistic 569.50 2,687.20 1,165.13 4,366.83 571.94 2,849.61 Number of Cross Sections 103 103 103 103 103 103 Number of Observations 2678 2678 2678 2678 2678 2678 Method PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS Cross-Section Fixed None Fixed None Fixed None Period None None None None None None GLS Weights CS CS CS CS CS CS Granger null-values GNSGDP 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 pr. (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) TRDEP 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 40.23 pr. (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) RCCRISKF 10.10 10.10 10.10 10.10 pr. (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) PCSCITES 16.30 16.30 pr. (0.000) (0.000) INNOVINDEXF 16.50 16.50 16.50 16.50 pr. (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Table 3 Expanded Model Regional Regression Estimates Dependent VariablePPPRPCGDP Global Africa C 15,221.50 1,487.01 GNSGDP 16.83 29.54 TRDEP RCCRISKF INNOVINDEXFA Adjusted R-Squared F-Statistic Panel Number Effects specification CS Period Weights Granger null F-Values GNSGDP Pr. T RDEP Pr. RCCRISKF Pr. INNOVINDEXF Pr. Asia CACARIB 13,400.41 5,492.98 13.37 5.60 WEurope EEurope 20,408.98 11,168.31 214.33 40.90 MENAf 3,684.88 32.85 (5.758) (12.450) (3.209) (9.174) (65.437) (17.989) (17.765) 3.82 6.16 28.23 7.05 48.74 4.46 25.21 (3.251) (7.681) (22.468) (17.449) (116.200) (4.616) (45.170) -286.73 -23.11 -458.38 -39.50 -384.99 -272.43 -63.61 (54.368) (6.590) (31.465) (26.870) (140.401) (24.351) (12.924) 37.54 267.35 6283.58 207.30 61.85 2367.92 618.46 (49.814) 0.8166 2862.14 103 (74.139) 0.9268 2737.07 30 (22.700) 0.9982 10568.36 13 (33.022) 0.9992 26310.19 17 (22.002) 0.9990 117019.20 11 (13.046) 0.9651 1884.21 13 (46.885) 0.9860 5065.68 12 None None CS None None CS Fixed None CS SUR Fixed None CS SUR None None CS SUR None None CS SUR None None CS SUR 4.76 (0.009) 40.23 (0.000) 10.10 (0.000) 16.50 (0.000) 14.48 (0.000) 13.09 (0.000) 16.62 (0.000) 14.42 (0.000) 9.53 (0.000) 4.62 (0.011) 3.84 (0.023) 10.86 (0.000) 4.13 (0.017) 1.68 (0.188) 12.53 (0.000) 1.10 (0.334) 3.52 (0.030) 18.40 (0.000) 0.15 (0.857) 16.41 (0.000) 0.23 (0.794) 1.81 (0.165) 3.06 (0.049) 1.39 (0.252) 0.08 (0.925) 4.65 (0.010) 0.84 (0.431) 0.56 (0.574) Table 4 Absolute Effect of a One-time One-Unit Change in Independent Variables on PPP Real Per Capita GDP Absolute change in Model Variable: Global Africa As ia CACARIB WEurope EEurope M ENAf POLRTS1 $187 $14 $379 $194 $3,052 $144 $95 PROPRT1 $308 $103 $319 $227 $509 $1,286 $257 RESIMPCOVRATIO1 $283 $125 $231 $81 $427 $279 $394 FDIGDP1 $14 $106 $243 $22 $409 $283 $93 GNSGDP1 $75 $30 $15 $27 $622 $41 $33 TRDEP1 $0 $6 $30 $29 $456 $4 $25 1 Unit Increase in MIGPOPGRATIO $60 $100 $59 $24 $419 $36 $14 1 Unit Decrease in RRCRISKF $283 $126 $425 $81 $679 $297 $64 1 Unit Increase in INNOVINDEXFA $38 $267 $6,209 $223 $469 $2,368 $618 Global Mean Predicted Base PPPRPCGDP $8,128 $1,944 $8,025 $5,408 $23,427 $7,157 $5,096 Table 5 Relative Effects of a One-time One-Unit change in Independent Variables on PPP Real Per Capita GDP Relative change: Global Africa Asia CACARIB WEurope EEurope MENAf POLRTS1 2.30% 0.71% 4.72% 3.58% 13.03% 2.01% 1.87% PROPRT1 3.79% 5.29% 3.97% 4.20% 2.17% 17.97% 5.04% RESIMPCOVRATIO1 3.49% 6.45% 2.87% 1.50% 1.82% 3.90% 7.73% FDIGDP1 0.18% 5.45% 3.03% 0.40% 1.74% 3.96% 1.82% GNSGDP1 0.92% 1.52% 0.19% 0.51% 2.65% 0.57% 0.64% TRDEP1 0.01% 0.32% 0.37% 0.53% 1.95% 0.06% 0.49% 1 Unit Increase in MIGPOPGRATIO 0.74% 5.13% 0.74% 0.44% 1.79% 0.51% 0.27% 1 Unit Decrease in RRCRISKF 3.49% 6.48% 5.30% 1.49% 2.90% 4.15% 1.25% 1 Unit Increase in INNOVINDEXFA 0.46% 13.75% 77.36% 4.13% 2.00% 33.08% 12.14% Table 6 Present Value Effects of One-Time One-Unit Changes in Independent Variables on PPP Real Per Capita GDP Global PV at Mean Rate of Interest 6.31% POLRTS1: $2,965 PROPRT1: $4,888 RESIMPCOVRATIO1: $4,493 FDIGDP1: $226 GNSGDP1: $1,189 TRDEP1: $7 1 Unit Increase in MIGPOPGRATIO: $951 1 Unit Decrease in RRCRISKF: $4,492 1 Unit Increase in INNOVINDEXFA $595 Africa 10.30% $135 $998 $1,217 $1,028 $287 $60 $968 $1,223 $2,596 Asia CACARIB WEurope EEurope MENAf 4.88% 7.46% 3.10% 11.77% 4.14% $7,763 $2,598 $98,404 $1,223 $2,303 $6,526 $3,046 $16,427 $10,923 $6,200 $4,720 $1,091 $13,775 $2,372 $9,518 $4,986 $291 $13,173 $2,407 $2,237 $311 $367 $20,052 $347 $793 $615 $386 $14,713 $38 $609 $1,208 $321 $13,517 $308 $337 $8,710 $1,083 $21,902 $2,525 $1,536 $127,143 $2,992 $15,136 $20,114 $14,937 Table A-1 Variable Definitions and Sources Scale Vari able Vari able Symbol Lowes t Highes t Defi nition Poli tic al Ri ghts POLRT S A supportive meas ure of democ ratic insti tutions. 1.00 7.00 Freedom Hous e, Freedom in the W orld Property Rights PROPRT A measure of the s trength of ec onomic freedom 1.00 5.00 T he Heri tage Foundation, T he Index of Ec onomi c Freedom J udici al Independenc e J UDINDA measure of the s trength of ec onomic freedom 1.00 10.00 T he Heri tage Foundation, T he Index of Ec onomi c Freedom Economi c Freedom ECFREE T he aggregate index of ec onomic freedom 1.00 5.00 T he Heri tage Foundation, T he Index of Ec onomi c Freedom Res erve Import Coverage RatioRESIMPCOVRAT IORati o of Reserves to Imports 0.00 1.00 T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators Foreign Direct Investment to GDP Ratio FDIGDP Rati o of FDI to GDP 0.00 1.00 T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators Net Mi gration to Population RatioNET MIGPOPRAT IONet Offic ial Mi gration to Population negati ve pos itive T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators Revised Country Composite Ris k RCCRISK An Index of Political, Ec onomic , Financial, 0.00 100.00 ICRG, as reported by the W orld Bank, and re-s caled and Envi ronmental Country Risk Nati onal Saving Rate GNSGDP Rati o of National Saving to GDP negati ve pos itive T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators T rade Dependency Rati o T RDEP Rati o of Exports and Imports to GDP 0.00 pos itive T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators Per Capi ta Sc ientific Ci tations PCSCIT ESPer capita Sc ientific Citati ons 0.00 pos itive T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators Innovation Index INNOVINDEXAverage of per c apita sc ienti fic ci tations 0.00 pos itive T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators and netroyalty ratio PPP per capita Real GDP PPPRPCGDP Real per capita GDP pos itive pos itive T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators at Purc hasi ng Power Parity Rates Real interes t Rate REALINRAT EReal disc ount rate of central bank in a country.negati ve pos itve T he W orld Bank, W orld Development Indi cators Corruption Index CORRUPA Corruption Perceptions Index, inverted sc ale 0.00 10.00 Corruption Perceptions Index, Inc. Table A-2 Expanded Regional Model 2005 Mean Original and Predicted Values Global 103 Africa Asia CACARIB 13 17 WEurope EEurope MENAf Panel number 30 17 11 12 Original Values POLRTS 4.8641 3.7667 4.2308 5.7059 7.0000 1.4558 2.3333 PROPRT 2.9107 2.3933 2.7692 2.5294 4.5882 3.3000 2.1667 JUDIND 5.1332 4.6963 5.2170 4.7220 7.6163 4.5296 3.4200 ECFREE 2.0085 1.5532 1.8377 2.0065 2.9135 1.8995 1.5108 RESIMPCOVRATIO 4.6408 4.3266 6.9832 4.8464 1.8222 0.7988 7.3979 FDIGDP 3.1164 3.0106 1.9420 3.0580 4.6752 0.0009 1.9623 NETMIGPOPRATIO 0.0000566 -0.0015440 0.0056350 -0.0059000 0.0146620 0.0024150 -0.0016480 RCCRISK 29.12 38.69 27.94 31.10 15.94 33.46 27.83 GNSGDP 19.7955 12.9247 30.8755 18.2433 23.2020 26.9792 22.0137 TRDEP 77.5171 64.3841 89.8601 65.9278 93.0468 73.2015 70.4656 INNOVINDEX 71.3280 2.5644 1.0440 4.5358 7.8070 2.9488 2.0193 PPPRPCGDP $10,652.78 $2,377.57 $9,270.38 $6,313.38 $30,405.65 $6,568.80 $6,126.92 REALINRATE 6.3069 10.3003 4.8831 7.4590 3.1015 -11.7728 4.1405 Predicted Values JUDINDF 5.0928 4.5202 5.0446 4.5043 7.8508 4.1275 3.4695 CORRUPAF 6.0196 7.2585 6.5947 6.9075 2.5777 6.4242 7.2696 ECFREEF 1.9193 1.4461 1.7626 1.9631 2.7434 1.9380 1.2750 RCCRISKF 34.9219 43.5928 32.9869 38.8303 17.0240 34.4199 38.8532 INNOVINDEXF 60.3168 2.5644 1.0640 4.4257 7.6219 1.6622 2.2360 PPPRPCGDPF $8,065.11 $1,946.76 $8,025.12 $5,393.44 $23,834.80 $7,157.50 $5,096.00 Table A-3 Estimating Equations for Revised Expanded Global Model Dependent Variable C POLRTS JUDIND CORRUPA 4.84 0.05 9.79 ECFREE 4.50 RCCRISK INNOVINDEX 55.02 48.75 PPPRPCGDP 15021.03 (8.941) PROPRT JUDINDF -0.13 0.03 (5.178) (2.018) -0.67 -9.31 (9.210) CORRUPAF (3.717) -0.44 5.29 (6.144) (2.003) RESIMPCOVRATIO -0.98 (19.950) ECFREEF 5.25 (3.721) FDIGDP 0.48 (12.717) NETMIGPOPRATIO 11.85 (2.058) MIGPOPGRATIO RCCRISKF -219.58 (22.199) GNSGDP 24.34 (3.307) TRDEP 10.91 (4.875) INNOVINDEXF 47.65 (44.050) INNOVINDEXF1 Adjusted R-Squared 0.9954 F-Statistic 5,607.85 Number of Cross-Sections 103.00 Number of Observ ations 2678 Method PLS Ef f ects Cross-section Fixed Period None GLS Weights CS Granger F-Null v alues POLRTS 7.07 Pr. (0.001) PROPRT Pr. JUDINDF Pr. CORRUPAF Pr. RESIMPCOVRATIO Pr. ECFREEF Pr. FDIGDP Pr. NETMIGPOPRATIO Pr. MIGPOPGRATIO Pr. RCCRISKF Pr. GNSGDP Pr. TRDEPF Pr. INNOVINDEXF Pr. 0.9935 3,923.36 103.00 2678 PLS 0.9963 6,886.84 103.00 2678 PLS 0.8843 195.81 103.00 2678 PLS 0.9199 293.84 103.00 2678 PLS 0.8545 4,053.53 103.00 2678 TSPLS Fixed None CS Fixed None CS Fixed None CS Fixed None CS None Fixed CS 30.38 (0.000) 23.93 (0.000) 10.41 (0.000) 6.79 (0.001) 5.27 (0.005) 12.05 (0.000) 25.47 (0.000) 12.28 (0.000) 2.84 (0.058) 0.90 (0.405) 10.10 (0.000) 7.91 (0.000) 27.51 (0.000) 16.50 (0.000) Table A-4 List of Countries Used in Regional Panel Analyses South America and Middle East and Global Africa Asia West Europe East Europe the North Africa Caribbean Mexico Benin Bangladesh Belize Austria Albania Iran, Islamic Rep. Canada Botswana China Costa Rica Belgium Bulgaria Lebanon United States Burkina Faso India El Salvador Denmark Czech Republic Oman + all others C.Af. Republic Indonesia Guatemala Finland Estonia Qatar Cameroon Japan Honduras France Hungary Syrian Arab Republic Chad Korea, Rep. Nicaragua Germany Latvia Turkey Congo, Dem. Rep. Malaysia Panama Greece Lithuania Yemen, Rep. Congo, Rep. Pakistan Argentina Ireland Poland Egypt, Arab Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Philippines Bolivia Italy Romania Libya Ethiopia Singapore Brazil Luxembourg Slovak Republic Tunisia Gabon Sri Lanka Chile Netherlands Russian Federation Algeria Ghana Thailand Colombia Norway Morocco Guinea Vietnam Ecuador Portugal Kenya Paraguay Spain Madagascar Peru Sweden Malawi Uruguay Switzerland Mali Venezuela, RB United Kingdom Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Niger Nigeria Senegal South Africa Sudan Tanzania Togo Uganda Zam bia Zimbabwe 103 30 13 17 17 11 12 References • Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson (2001). 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