Global Warming
Energy Challenges
RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series
County of San Mateo
January 31, 2006
Overview
• Greenhouse effect
– Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise
– Forcing models / temperature predictions
• Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)
• Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
– Future and current energy challenges
• Energy equity – and the road ahead
Solar Energy and earth’s Heat
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
Global Warming - the 20th Century
http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions
It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll
burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
Rising CO2 over 50 Years
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
Carbon Emissions and CO2
Year
C burned
1900
12307
1910
19174
1920
28050
1930
37914
1940
48566
1950
62324
1960
83453
1970
115935
1980
164083
1990
219365
2000
283373
ppm CO2
295
300
305
310
310
315
320
325
340
350
370
• Carbon burned => CO2
• Linear from 1850 to 2000
- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C
+ 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
• ~ 50% of carbon goes
into atmospheric CO2
– 33% into the oceans
• Trend is constant over
150 years – is this how
the biosphere will react
over the next 150 years?
A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Projected Energy Demand
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
GHG Emissions by Source
Future CO2 – the Next 30 Yrs
Year
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emissions
283,373
318,465
357,209
399,986
447,216
499,360
556,932
CO2
369
378
388
399
411
424
439
Based on 2% annual growth in carbon emissions 2000 - 2030
Global Climate Models (GCM)
• Ab Initio modeling
– From first principles
• Modeling land and sea
temps from 1900 - 2000
• Complexity and data
– Climate is a dynamic
system – ‘complex’ math
• GISS study
– 10 year study over oceans
– Sea temps ~7,500 ft depth
– Satellite data for forcing
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm
Forcing Calculations
Some math is required….
1) Forcing (Watts) = atmospheric forcing factor multiplied by:
ln (ppm gas conc. current / ppm gas conc. historic)
2) ATM forcing factor for CO2 calculated (est.) to be 5.85 watts
3) For 2005, calculation = 5.85 W * ln (380 ppm / 280 ppm) = ~1.8W
4) For CO2, climate sensitivity = 2/3 degree C per 1 watt of forcing
5) 25 to 50 years for the climate to respond to 60% of this forcing
You can model this in Excel and predict temperatures from ppm [CO2]
Earth Out of Balance
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Forcing, Predicted Temperature,
and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Forcing
Felt
Owed
2000
0F
2025
2050
2075
2100
- Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
The Carbon Cycle
• Why atmospheric CO2 is the last thing on
earth humans should have interfered with!
• We are releasing CO2 at one million times
the rate that earth initially sequestered it at
• We inserted ourselves in the carbon cycle
• And are affecting the ‘thermostat of life’
– Earth uses CO2 to help maintain an optimum
temperature for the biosphere, for > 650K years
The Thermostat of Life
• Vostok ice core data show regular and repeating
cycles of temps and CO2 over last ~500,000 years
• Oscillate between 180 and 280 ppm CO2 and 100 C
• Hypothesis that earth regulates the temperature of
the planet through CO2 / greenhouse effect
– Biosphere maintains a precise level of CO2 for life
• But the biosphere isn’t really absorbing our CO2
– Y intercept of cum. carbon burn / CO2 is 297 ppm
• http://courses.washington.edu/pcc589/papers/Shackleton2000.pdf
Vostok CO2 and Temperature
• The relationship
between CO2 and
temperature is nearly
perfect (r2*100 = 99)
• However, the casual
relationship is the
basis for significant
(expert) controversy
• Why does this occur?
The Vostok Equilibrium
• Vostok ‘equilibrium’
• 100K year cycles
– earth’s orbital eccentricity
• Sun heats up the planet
– Biosphere expands
• CO2 maintains temp
– Otherwise earth would be
very cold ~ 0 degrees F
– CO2 has not exceeded
280 ppm in the last 500K
years and 4 major cycles
Crux of the Vostok Data
Temperature leads biomass CO2, then CO2 maintains temperature
Just One Degree F
• These examples will show the affect of
warming the earth at just one degree F
– And for less than 50 years!
– Warming has accelerated in last ~20 years
• The affect of temperature is cumulative
– Earth takes decades to centuries to react
• And we still owe an additional degree F!
Long Term Warming Effects
Not just increased temperature, but added heat, for a long, long, time!
Consequences of Warming
• Thinning of polar ice caps
– Thawing permafrost / release of methane
• Slowing of the thermohaline cycle
• Rising sea level, perhaps quickly
• Extreme weather events
– Extended regions of drought
– Extremes of temperature / duration
– Extremes of storms and hurricanes
All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
Storms on the Move
Katrina moving
across Florida
in late August 2005
finds warm water
in the Gulf of Mexico
And grows from a
category 1 to a
category 5 hurricane
in less than 2 days!
The Melting North Pole
The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html
Thermohaline Cycle
http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/om.html
NASA schematic view of ocean circulation. The light colored path shows the general movement of the surface waters
and the dark colored path shows the movement of water at depth. The numbers show the position of: 1. The Gulf
Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formation which
results from strong cooling. 3. Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea ice production around Antarctica.
Antarctica Cracking
Calving Ice Shelf Process
Antarctic holds >80%
of earth’s fresh water
Like the Arctic, it
moderates the climate
• Calving at the edge of the ice shelf
• Shelves hold the main ice flows back
• As they break, ice flows into the sea
• Melt water fills the ice crevice
• Water sinks, crevices expand • Fissuring the shelf into pieces
The Larsen B Ice Shelf was the size of Rhode Island!
Greenland Melting
http://www.comcast.net/data/news/photoshow/html/news/246569.html
Retreating Glaciers
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
Sea Level Expansion
• Sea expands from water molecule
changing 0.0002 in volume for each 0C
• Over 5,000 to 7,500 meters, it adds up
• Thermal expansion is 1 – 2 cm / 10 yrs.
• But is accelerating to 2.5 cm / decade
• For every 1 0C, sea expands ~1 meter in
height - sea cannot expand ‘down or out’
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsProbability.html
Sea Level Rise
http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slr30mla/viewer.htm
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Projected Energy Demand
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
World Oil Production History
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil
Oil Discovery (3 year average past and projected) 1930-2050
http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htm
Oil Production – Reserves
Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Energy Equity
• Burning oil is burning money!
• Build an energy infrastructure with equity
• Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
– $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’
– Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in
manufacturing, and 8 for local installers
• Built in America, by Americans, for
America, what could be more economic?
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
10 Key Energy Challenges
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Fuel cells
Hydrogen
Solar energy
Batteries
Motors
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New power grid
Low power lighting
Insulation materials
Safer nuclear power
CO2 sequestration
Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy Economy
An Apollo style program on a Manhattan Project Timeline
Building a Solar Economy
• Solar power is a primary,
not alternative energy
• 25% of electricity could be
generated by solar in 2025
• Solar brings true energy
independence from carbon
• It requires a commitment,
not just an investment of $s
• Research in newer thin film
technology shows promise
Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry
Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005
One Million Solar Roofs – ‘California, the Solar State’
Cars - a Growing Global Problem
A New Auto Economy?
• New types of cars
– Electric cars
– Hydrogen cars
– Hydrogen hybrids
• Transportation is a key
area of growing CO2
– And one area where we
can individually make
key changes in the CO2
that we each produce
A Real Hybrid Vehicle
Gas Electric Synergy Drive™ - ‘plug-in hybrids’ coming soon
Flexible Fuel Electric
Plug-in Hybrids
• 1 KWhr will power this
‘hybrid’ car about 4 miles
• Burning natural gas for
electricity, will generate
about 1 lb. of CO2
• Compare to 2 pounds of
CO2 at 40 mpg (petrol)
• Recharge car at night,
when power rates are low.
• Put ‘power on the grid’
during the day with solar.
http://www.evworld.com/electrichybrid.cfm
A New Electron Economy
• $1 - 2 trillion for solar energy
• $1 trillion in a new power grid
• $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars
– $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery
technology for cars and other appliances
• Energy needs to join the digital age
– Networked and distributed power sources
Solar power is an ‘edge of network’ asset in a distributed power system
Move Differently
• SolarSegway™
• Range ~8 - 12 miles
• Battery packs can be
charged locally (~5 hrs)
• Emission free vehicle
– Solar panels ‘extra’
• Projected cost of
$2,500 in quantity
Zero Emission Economy
• Global population pressure creates a big
problem in controlling carbon emissions
• 8 billion people * 1.25 tons carbon / person
– 10 G tons of carbon burned per year
– 50% more than the 6.6 G tons of carbon today
• The only solution is zero-emission power
– Nuclear and solar are the long-term options,
and significant growth in wind generated power
Wind Power – Real Power
Wind Power Statistics
• Germany has over 14,000 MW installed
• North Dakota has only 70 MW installed
– And the same amount of wind as Germany
• Midwest has excellent wind resources
• Europe has made this commitment
• USA is poised to make similar choices
– GE and Clipper Wind are two key producers
The Complexity of the Problem
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Several variables
Population growth
Income rise and development
Energy mix (fuel type)
Manufacturing vs. service economies
– China has different challenges than the US
• Energy driven activities
– Production, consumption, transportation
Global Carbon Profiles
USA 6.0
Canada 4.0
Developing World
Mexico 1.0
Germany 2.2
England 2.5
France 2.0
North America
Europe
China 0.6
Africa & India 0.3
Tons of carbon per person in year 2000 => average = 1.1
The Population Problem
8 billion people @ 1.25 tons each = 10 G tons of carbon / year
That is 50% more carbon emissions than today!
Sense of Urgency, call to Action
• We are at the end of the oil age
– Need ‘energy equity’ in place soon
• Solar and wind energy are obvious
– Deployable now and in quantity
• Need to look at safer nuclear energy
– To replace coal and gas, augment solar
– Create hydrogen for transportation ‘fuel’
• Time to market is less than 25 years!
From Information to Choices
We can do this, but the clock is running!
Where Do We Want to Be?
• Deciding where we want to be
• Then planning how to get there
• Choosing our leaders based on
energy policy – California is a leader
• Bottom up leadership – tipping points
• 2006 is the year for you to be a leader!
Each one of us must be a leader in this technology revolution!
Disaster or Catastrophe?
Published in : IPCC Third Assessment Report - Synthesis Report Figure number : 9.3
What You Can Do
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Drive less, drive smart
Invest in solar energy
Conserve on energy use
We need to cut CO2 emissions by 80%
Be deeply aware of the problem
– This is the most significant problem facing
the planet over the next 50 to 100 years
– What we do in the next 25 years is critical!
Summary
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Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle
Forcing models – temperature lag
Effect of warming just one degree
Peak oil – declining energy production
Energy Equity – and the road ahead
– Our single biggest challenge
– Our single biggest opportunity
References
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http://www.realclimate.org/
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html
http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
http://www.nrel.gov/
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://www.architecture2030.org/
Sustainable Silicon Valley
Partnering with businesses,
nonprofits, cities and counties to
reduce CO2 emissions in San
Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda
and Santa Cruz Counties
http://www.sustainablesiliconvalley.org/