The Hydropower Workers’ Song Heave! Ho! Heave! Heave, ah Heave! Ho! Heave! Heave, ah Cut the mount, split the ridge, 1000 mountains, 10,000 rivers Our footprints, the iron dragon rolls, transmitting light; Let burning ambition illuminate Heaven and Earth, cherish the majestic hydropower! Man, winds, and rains, how many springtimes of lofty sentiment Written on the great Earth; ‘tis the springtime of hydropower The heavens ablaze with color, la! la! We’re a new generation, a new generation of hydropower workers, a new generation Our achievements endure a thousand years, good for the country, good for the people Morning is coming Bringing the people an undying star! The four seas are our home, we work night and day, seeking brilliance Our spirits, iron and steel our army, tenaciously advancing; Let the Jade Emperor above be struck with awe, pleased with the tribute of hydropower Man, hot blood forged into rivers, bold science and technology Creating a glorious industry, from the high ridges come plains The waters reflecting white clouds, la! A new generation of hydro workers, bringing fortune to the fatherland, to the people The march of modernized construction brings the people an undying star Morning! 1 Substations and Subregions Large-scale hydropower and local development in Yunnan and southwest China Darrin Magee, Ph.D. dmagee@u.washington.edu 2 Presentation Outline Regional Development: Yunnan peripheral, Yunnan central Details of Yunnan hydropower projects Decision-making & institutional challenges Economic, political, and cultural marginality Centrality to regional development policies Protection vs. Development Civil Society vs. Control Water Law vs. Bureaucratic Inertia Suggestions for further research 3 Centrality and Marginality Development Frameworks and Major Energy Infrastructure Projects 4 Regional Development: Domestic Western Development Strategy (西部大开发) Attempt to address coastal bias of reform era Emphases on transportation, power, & industry Pan-Pearl River Delta (凡珠三角) 2004 Discussion Forum and Trade Negotiations on Greater Pearl River Delta Cooperation & Development Nine provinces from Fujian to Yunnan, plus Macao and Hong Kong (“9+2 Region”) China Southern Power Grid (南方电网) 5 RD 1: China’s “West” Yunnan 6 Go West, Young Han? Viewpoints on Western Development range from critical to optimistic “Internal colonisation” Further entrenchment and legitimacy for longstanding patterns of resource extraction or… Real concern on behalf of Beijing leadership to seek more balanced development and address ~10:1 east/west gaps in per capita GDP 7 Western Development Strategy Official launch in 2000 Centerpiece of 10th FYP (2001-2005) Increased direct fiscal transfers to west, along with favorable loan terms for infrastructure projects Some critics argue that further subsidies are not the answer, call for new methods for financing capitalintensive projects (e.g., securities markets) Basic infrastructure, “ecological construction” Uncertainty about policies, but certainty that western resources play a key role 8 Key Projects (announced in 2000) Project Location Ningxia-Tibet Railway Ningxia Province to Tibet Chongqing-Huaihua Railway Chongqing Municipality to Huaihua City Western regions road construction Various areas Western regions airport construction Various areas Chongqing light rail Chongqing Municipality Sebei-Xining-Lanzhou gas pipeline Qinghai Province, Gansu Province Qinghai 300,000-ton potash fertilizer factory Qinghai Province Grain-for-Green project Various areas Higher education basic infrastructure Various areas Zipingpu Water Conservancy Sichuan 中国西部开发大事记 (2003) 9 Electricity & Western Development Send Western Electricity East (西电东送) Send Yunnan Power to Guangdong (滇电粤送) Among second set of major Western Development projects prioritized in 2001 Ultra-high-voltage DC transmission lines (800 kV) expected by 2010, aimed at reducing voltage losses resulting from long-distance transmission Send Yunnan Electricity Outward (云电外送) Contract negotiations since late 1990s for power sales to Thailand and later Vietnam 10 China’s Hydro Bases: Baker’s Dozen? Northeast 11,983 U. Yellow 16,364.3 Yarlung 20,100 N. Yellow 6,408 Dadu 17,720 Jinsha 59,080 Wu R. 10,615 U. Yangtze 28,897 Min-Zhe 14,871 Nu 30,000 Huxi 7,735 Lancang 21,470 Nanpan/Red 12,012 11 Money for Megawatts Guangdong investment in infrastructure to support power transfers Early 1990s… 2.39 B Yuan for Yunnan and Guangxi power stations 35 M Yuan in design and planning work for Xiaowan Dam on the Lancang Guangdong currently receives 30-40% of power from external sources 12 (Mis)perceived synergy? Guangdong peak power demand occurs during summer Yunnan’s peak hydropower generation output occurs during monsoon season (summer!) yet… Need for flood control is also highest during times of peak runoff into rivers (summer!) 13 Three west-east corridors (通道) Northern Corridor From: Yalong Tsangpo & Yellow To: Capital area Beijing / Tianjin area Middle Corridor From: Jinsha/Upper Yangtze To: Shanghai area Southern Corridor Shanghai / Zhejiang / Jiangsu area Guangdong / PRD From: Lancang/Nu To: Guangdong area 14 RD 2: Pan-Pearl River Delta (PPRD) PPRD Region Pearl River Delta 15 PPRD & China Southern Power Grid Severe power outages in Guangdong in 2003; PPRD created in 2004, with power transfers as a key component Creation of new regions such as PPRD legitimize and naturalize certain policies and investment patterns 16 PPRD Initiatives Topic Key Initiatives Industry investment and basic infrastructure Science and technology, west-east electricity transmission, interprovincial highway construction Market construction Quality control, commodity prices, intellectual property, enterprise collaboration, market oversight, trademark protection Agriculture Agricultural technology, trade, key agro-industry promotion, specialized products, standardization of production bases, quality supervision and control Regional environmental protection Air quality monitoring in delta area, environmental monitoring network and reporting over PPRD area Tourism, labor, science, education, culture, sanitation, and health Tourism cooperation, educational exchange and resource sharing; food and medication security; infectious disease prevention and reporting Create a convenient platform for information exchange and a PPRD information network Information network interlinking and maintenance for government offices; website management groups Source: PPRD Office (2005) 17 Yunnan Electricity to Guangdong Pan-Pearl River Delta Core: Guangdong’s Pearl River Delta PPRD Region Pearl River Delta 18 Generation in the Southern Grid Yunnan Guizhou Guangxi Guangdong Total No. of Dams 145 81 56 41 323 Installed Capacity (MW) 88,200 14,663 14,515 2,680 20,058 Annual Output (Billion kWh) 437.3 65.64 64.4 9.68 577.07 Output as % of 4Province Total 75.6 11.4 11.2 1.7 Population (millions) 41.457 36.646 46.74 71.30 196.14 Per capita output (MWh/person) 10.55 1.79 1.38 0.136 2.94 Source: (Ji & Duan, 2001) 19 Thematic Map of Power Consumption Data source: China Electric Power Yearbook Editorial Committee (Ed.) (2005) 20 Yunnan: Guangdong’s Powershed? 2001-2005, some 24 B kWh sent from Yunnan to Guangdong, even while rolling blackouts affected Yunnan 1993-2004, increase in dedicated generation capacity from 300 to 1800 MW Much of Lancang (Mekong) cascade capacity will be for Guangdong Yunnan likely to become sole supplier in near future based on growing demand in Guangxi 21 Why “Powershed”? Obvious analogy to watershed; space over which a resource is collected/concentrated Underscores the fact that Yunnan hydro is not simply a Yunnan issue, and that familiar scalar analytics like provinces fail to capture the dynamics of interprovincial power transfers Challenges comfortable rural-urban dichotomy Opens door for simultaneous examination of political economic power relations 22 Making the connection: grid linking Southern Grid: Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hainan, Guangdong 110-kV, 220-kV, 500-kV, and 800-kV (2010) transmission lines coexisting in porous grid Southern Grid and China Power Grid (中国南 方电网和中国电网) both formerly housed under the Ministry of Electric Power; split off in 2002 Goal to create national grid by ~2015 23 Challenges to grid interlinking Differing voltages necessitate step-down or step-up stations (调度站) Numerous local, low-voltage grids across Yunnan (and other provinces) Some in poor areas with little or no infrastructure Some in rich areas with sufficient infrastructure and little incentive (at present) to interconnect Debate about national grid architecture 网对网 (grid to grid) vs 点对网 (point to grid) 24 Regional Development: International Mekong River Commission (湄公河委员会) Greater Mekong Subregion (大湄公河次区域) Half-century history; re-established in 1995 Entrenched perception of “MRC vs China” Little incentive for China to join, yet some recent progress in technical cooperation Launched by Asian Development Bank in 1992 Seen as less of a political challenge than MRC ASEAN (东盟) 25 GMS: Naturalizing the Subregion Yunnan Myanmar 5 nation-states, one province-state; call for inclusion of second Chinese province (Guizhou), but not Tibet Laos Thailand Vietnam Cambodia GMS 26 GMS: Power, transport, tourism, trade First transborder power sales from Yunnan to Vietnam via Hekou/Lao Cai in fall 2004 Second GMS leaders summit held in Kunming in July 2005 Agreements on electrical grid development and interconnection, trans-border movement of people and goods, disease prevention, etc. Within Yunnan, GMS construct frequently deployed as justification for infrastructure investments (cf. Tibet) 27 GMS Projects Agriculture Energy Environment Human Resources Investment Telecom Tourism Trade Transport Multisector Second GMS Leaders Summit in Kunming, July 2005 28 GMS Transportation Loans to PRC 12/2004 Loan 2116: Dali-Lijiang Railway 9/2004 Loan 2094: Guangxi Roads Development Project II 10/2003 Loan 2014: Western Yunnan Roads Development Project 10/2001 Loan 1851: Guangxi Roads Development Project 9/1994 Loan 1325: Yunnan Expressway 29 GMS Transportation (partial) 3/2006 RETA 6310: Development Study on GMS North-South Economic Corridor 12/2005 TA 4742: GMS Northern Transport Network Improvement 9/2005 TA 4657: Preparing the Railway Development Project (Yunnan-Yuxi Mengzi Railway) 8/2005 RETA 6251: GMS Rehabilitation of the Railway in Cambodia 3/2005 RETA 6235: GMS Southern Coastal Corridor 12/2004 RETA 6227: Coordinating for GMS: North-South Economic Corridor Bridge Project (formerly Third Mekong Bridge) 12/2004 RETA 6228: Facilitating Cross-Border Trade and Investment in the GMS 10/2004 RETA 6193: GMS Infrastructure Connections in Northern Laos (SSTA); RETA 6195: GMS Transport Sector Strategy Study 12/2002 TA 4050: Prep Kunming-Haiphong Transport Corridor Project-Viet Nam 30 GMS Regional Power Trade (RPT) 1/2006 RETA 6304: GMS RPT Coordination & Development; Also RETA 6301: Developing the GMS Energy Sector Strategy 3/2004 RETA 4323: TA to the Lao PDR for Preparing the GMS: Nam Theun 2 (NT2) Hydropower Development Project- Phase II 12/2003 RETA 6147: Preparing the GMS Power Interconnection Phase I 1/2003 TA 4078: GMS: Cambodia Preparing the Power Distribution and GMS Transmission Project 11/2002 RETA 6100: TA to Study a GMS RPT Operating Agreement 7/2000 RETA 5920: Regional Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection 7/1999 RETA 3222: Se San 3 Hydropower – Viet Nam 7/1997 RETA 2926: Nam Ngum 500 kV Transmission – Lao PDR 8/1996 RETA 5697: Se Kong-Se San & Nam Theun Basins Hydro Dev Study 9/1995 RETA 5643: Subregional Electric Power Forum 31 Transboundary power sales Power sold to Vietnam at higher tariff than to Guangdong or elsewhere in China Transboundary transmissions to Vietnam currently occur over low-voltage (110-kV) lines, but plans underway to complete 220-kV circuit to Vietnam by late 2006 and 500-kV circuit to Thailand via Laos Late 1990s negotiations between Thailand and Yunnan for joint investment in dams along with power purchase agreements; yet loud criticisms within Thailand of “Chinese” dams 32 Water to Watts Details of Lancang (Mekong) and Nu (Salween) hydropower development 33 River as Power Source Major push underway since mid-1980s to develop large-scale hydropower on Yunnan’s rivers Lancang-Mekong Nu-Salween 4800 km long (1200 in YN) 6 countries 2800 km long (600 in YN) 3 countries Jinsha-Chang-Yangtze Concern over impacts Great uncertainty Manwan Dam 34 Project Details Yunnan Guangdong 35 Background: Hydropower Potential China has half the world’s large1 dams (20K) TGP: 18,200 MW installed capacity Hoover Dam: 2,067 MW Grand Coulee: 6,809 MW Columbia River: 24,149 MW Lancang (Mekong) cascade: 16,150 MW Nu (Salween) cascade: 21,320 MW Concerns about downstream impacts and resettlement of thousands of villagers 1. WCD: >15 m high; China: >250 MW 36 Regional Power Consumption Trends 14000000 12000000 10000000 10,000 kWh Yunnan 8000000 Guangdong Fujian Shanghai 6000000 Tianjin Beijing 4000000 2000000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year 37 Urban Power Consumption Trends Urban Electricity Consumption Terawatt-hours (TWh) 30 25 Guangzhou 20 Shenzhen 15 Dongguan 10 Kunming 5 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year 38 Power Consumption by Region 6000 100 M kWh 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2002 2001 2000 0 N 1999 NE E SC 1995 SW NW 39 Middle & Lower Lancang Cascade Dam Name Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Output (Twh) Start Date End Date Dam Height (m) (Est.) Cost (Billion Yuan) Reservoir Volume (billion m3) Gongguoqiao 功果桥a 750 4.060 2006-2007 2010-2015 130 3.8 0.51 Xiaowan 小湾b 4,200 18.89 January 2002 2012 292 22.3 to 27.7 15.13 Manwan 漫湾c 1,500 7.805 May 1986 1995 132 3.4d 1.06 Dachaoshan 大朝山e 1,350 6.70 August 1997 October 2003 120.5 8.9 0.88 Nuozhadu 糯扎渡b 5,850 23.684* End of 2005 2017 260 35.3 22.74 Jinghong 景洪b 1,750 7.931 2004 2009-2013 107 17 1.23 Ganlanba 橄榄坝a 150 0.899 ? ? ? 0.6 ? Mengsong 勐宋a 600 2.888 ? ? 65 2.2 ? 40 Lancang (Mekong) River 澜沧江 41 Xiaowan Dam Site 292 m tall ~25 B Yuan (~ $3B US) 42 Middle & Lower Nu Cascade Dam Name Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Output (Twh) Songta 松塔 4,200 Bingzhongluo 丙中洛 Start Date (Est) End Date (Est) Dam Height (m) (Est.) Cost (Billion Yuan) 17.87 2006-2007 2020-2030 307 19.7 1,600 8.34 ? 2020-2030 54.5 5.2 Maji 马吉 4,200 18.97 2006-2007 2015-2020 300 18.5 Lumadeng 鹿马登 2,000 10.09 ? 2020-2030 165 9.1 Fugong 福贡 400 1.98 ? 2020-2030 60 2.3 Bijiang 碧江 1,500 1.18 ? 2015-2020 71.4 5.9 Yabiluo 亚碧罗 1,800 9.06 2006-2007 2015-2020 133 6.0 Lushui 泸水 2,400 12.74 ? 2015-2020 175 8.8 Liuku 六库 180 0.76 2006-2007 2015-2020 35.5 0.9 Shitouzai 石头寨 440 2.29 ? 2020-2030 59 2.3 Saige 赛格 1,000 5.37 2006-2007 2015-2020 79 3.6 Yansangshu 岩桑树 1,000 5.2 ? 2015-2020 84 4.4 Guangpo 光坡 600 3.15 ? 2020-2030 58 2.9 43 Nu (Salween) River 怒江 44 Institutional Challenges I: Environmental Impact Assessment Law vs. “Development First” Paradigm 45 Development vs. Protection Middle & Lower Nu River Hydropower Planning Report submitted to the NDRC in July 2003 Environmental Assessment Law promulgated in September 2003. Nu River (Upper Salween) widely seen as a test case for “teeth” of law and enforcement capabilities of State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) March 2004: Call for suspension of Nu projects November 2004: Lancang EIA meeting held, but closed to public October 2006: Minister of Water Resources Wang Shucheng calls Nu projects “predatory development” 46 Projects halted due to EIA Law Responsible Company Project Three Gorges Project Corp. Jinsha R. Xiluodu Hydro Station (12600 MW) Three Gorges Project Corp. TGP Underground Power Gen. (4200 MW) Three Gorges Project Corp. TGP Power Supply station (100MW)* Taicang Harbor Env. Prot. Power Gen. Co. Jiangsu Taicang Harbor 4th stage 2×600MW exp. Xuzhou Huaxin Power Gen. Co. Jiangsu Xuzhou 2×300 MW exp. Jiangsu Xutang Power Gen. Co. Jiangsu Xutang 2×300 MW exp. Jiangyin Sulong Power Gen. Co. Jiangyinxia Harbor 2×330 MW exp. Jiangsu Huadian Yangzhou Power Gen. Co. Thermal power & heat supply 2×300MW Xiamen Huaxia Int’l Electric Power Dev Co. Xiamen Songyu Stn. 2nd Stage 2×300MW exp. Baotou East China Thermal Power Co. Thermal power & heat supply 2×300 MW Qingyuan No. 1 Power Gen. Co. Gansu Qingyuan Stn. 3rd Stage 2×300 MW exp. Ningxia Power Generation Group Co. Ningxia Maliantai Stn. 2×330 MW Jiangsu Xinhai Power Gen. Co. Jiangsu Xinhai 2×300 MW Power & Heat Supply Exp. Datang Int’l Stock Co. Zhejiang Datang Wushashan Stn. 4×600 MW Inner Mongolia Huolin River Power Gen. Co. Inner Mongolia Huolin 2×300 MW 47 Projects halted due to EIA Law (cont’d) Responsible Company Project Qufu Shengcheng Thermal Power Co. Qufu Shengcheng 2×200MW Sichuan Electric Power Co. Nanchong-Wanxian 500-kV transmission project Sichuan Electric Power Co. Guang’an-Nanchong 500-kV transmission project Fujian Province Electric Power Co. Fujian Power Grid Xiamen Hepu R. Transformer Stn. 500-kV power conversion & transmission project China Guodian Group Ningxia Shizuishan 2×330 MW tech upgrade China Huadian Group Guizhou Dafang 4×300 MW Guodian Xuanwei Power Generation Co. Yunnan Xuanwei Stn. 7th Stage 2×300 MW exp. Henan Zhongfu Industry Stock Co. Henan Zhongfu 2×300 MW exp. Inner Mongolia Xinfeng Thermal Power Co. Xinfeng 2×300 MW power and heat supply Inner Mong. Zhungeer Dafanpu Power Stn. Dafanpu Power Stn. 2×300 MW Nanjing Suyuan Thermal Power Co. Suyuan Thermal Power Co. 2nd stage 2×300 MW power & heat supply China Nat’l Petroleum & Natural Gas Co. Lanzhou Petrochem Stock Co. 1.2 Megaton/year delayed coking project Foshan Huafeng Paper Industries Co. Upgrade to 300 kiloton/year high-grade paper project Inner Mongolia Transportation Bureau Portion of Dandong-Lhasa highway project Fuzhou City Development & Reform Comm. Fujian Min R. North Harbor Southside Flood Prev. Project and South R. road construction project 48 Institutional Challenges II: Civil society vs. Legal Regulations on Organizations 49 Civil Society Organizations Since late 1990s, increasing concern among NGOs in downstream countries about impacts of Chinese development of upstream waters Strong anti-dam NGO community in Thailand; no real analog in China Complicated by transboundary power sales More recent development of organizations mobilized around environmental and cultural preservation within China “Safe” topics, but idea of non-state organizations generally troubling to China’s leadership 50 Fine print: dual oversight CSOs could formerly register with industrial or commercial bureaucracy as “non-enterprise units” Registration with the Ministry of Civil Affairs Adoption by a professional bureaucracy (forestry, agricultural, transportation, science and technology, etc.) that agrees to oversee the organization Theoretically, only one organization at any one administrative level focused on same issue Many (80%?) exist peacefully below regulatory radar as long as focus of work is not considered sensitive (eg. poverty alleviation) 51 Fine Print 2 (2005) No longer allowed to register with industrial and commerce bureaucracy as non-enterprise (or nonprofit) units; instead, MUST register with civil affairs Law targeted unregistered organizations and those with “social science”, “research center”, or “research institute” in their names Two-week deadline given for re-registration with civil affairs administration Case of Green Watershed and Yu Xiaogang 52 Institutional Challenges III: Bureaucratic Jockeying vs. Water Law 53 Analysis of decision making Decision making about hydropower. Who is at the table? What leverage do they have? How is this changing? Reforms in water and electricity sector since mid-1990s have left many conflicts, overlaps, and ambiguities Process depends on perspective 54 Perspective 1: Hydro Companies Formerly part of central ministry Restructuring from 1996 to 2002 changed the shape of hydropower development authorities, but perhaps not the way they do business Maintenance of direct connections to Energy Bureau of NDRC, and State Council 55 Ministry to SOE to Stock Company State Power Grid Southern Power Grid China Huaneng Grid Companies China Huadian Ministry of Electric Power (<1998) State Power Corp. of China (1998-2002) China Datang Generation Companies China Power Investment Design Companies China Guodian China Power Engineering China Hydro Consulting Sinohydro Corporation China Gezhouba Co. 56 Perspective 2: Basin Commission CWRC: One of seven watershed commissions that are neither local nor national in administrative scope 50 years as technical agency; less than five as an enforcement authority Chicken and egg: comprehensive plan vs. hydropower plan Hydro leading planning; authority of CWRC being skirted. 57 Watershed (Basin) Commission prepares comprehensive plan Survey & Design Institute(s) Developer solicits project pre-feasibility study Input from local gov’t & central ministries (forestry, transportation, navigation, agriculture water, SEPA) Pre-feasibility study approved by Basin Commission Survey & Design Institute(s) Decision-Making Process from CWRC Perspective Banks and other financiers Developer solicits technical plan & feasibility study Feasibility study & plan approved by Basin Commission Developer begins work on project (bidding, contracting) Construction Companies Developer submits project application report Survey & Design Institute(s) Potential State Council Intervention Basin Commission approves project application report 58 Developer makes initial project proposal Survey & Design Institute(s) NDRC approves project concept Developer prepares detailed proposal Input from local governments Input from local gov’t & central ministries (forestry, transportation, navigation, agriculture water, SEPA) Decision-Making Process from Company Perspective YDRC approves detailed proposal Survey & Design Institute(s) NDRC approves detailed proposal Developer submits project application Potential State Council Intervention NDRC approves project application Developer begins work on project (bidding, contracting) Banks and other financiers Survey & Design Institute(s) Construction Companies 59 Further Research Water, Power, Economic Development, Decision Making, Environmental and Human Health 60 Science and Sustainability 大型水电 = 可再生能源 (large hydro = renewable resource) Frequent conflation of scientific development sustainable development Implication: If it’s “scientific,” it’s sustainable Whose scientists produce the science? 61 Nu/Salween Hydropower Cascade Key arguments that have brought large-scale hydro into question If Nu 13-dam cascade is cancelled, implications for local development Implications for pluralization of decisionmaking processes regarding natural resources and local development 62 South-North Water Diversion Three routes Technical issues Eastern, Central, Western Pollution & human health impacts Environmental impacts High-altitude transfers Jurisdictional issues Basin commissions Provincial D & R commissions 63 Small-scale hydropower Often touted as benign alternative Run-of-river vs. impoundment Local and inexpensive technology Minimal investment Less oversight, more shortcuts Approval at prefecture/city level or lower Start first, approve later Few controls on construction Little incentive to integrate with grid 64