CHAPTER 1 LECTURE - THE UNITED STATES IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY 1 Learning Objectives • Explain how economists measure international economic integration. • List the three types of evidence to support the idea that trade supports economic growth. • Discuss the differences in international economic integration at the end of the nineteenth century and the current era. • Describe the major themes of international economics. 2 International Economics as a Field of Study in Economics Question: What makes economic relations among nation states different from economic relations within a nation state? Possible Answers: • Each country identifies itself by a geographical area over which it claims sovereignty. • • Each country has its own government and its own sets of rules and regulations. The political systems of most nation states are different. 3 Possible Answers Activities or transactions leading to movements of people, factors of production (i.e., labor, capital and raw materials), manufactured goods and services across a county's borders are often controlled or restricted and in some cases are prohibited. Most nation states have their own monies (currencies) and banking systems. Despite the basic commonalties among all human beings, people of different countries tend to have different cultures, speak different languages, and have different tastes and habits. ==>All of the above have restricting effects on economic interactions among nation states. 4 What is International Economics About? • International economics deals with economic interactions that occur between independent nations. – The role of governments in regulating international trade and investment is substantial. – Analytically, international markets allow governments to discriminate against a subgroup of companies. – Governments also control the supply of currency. • There are several issues that recur throughout the study of international economics. 5 What is International Economics About? • The Gains from Trade – Many people are skeptical about importing goods that a country could produce for itself. – When countries sell goods to one another, all countries benefit. – Trade and income distribution • International trade might hurt some groups within nations. • Trade, technology, and wages of high and low-skilled workers. • The Pattern of Trade (who sells what to whom?) – Climate and resources determine the trade pattern of several goods. – In manufacturing and services the pattern of trade is more subtle. – There are two types of trade: • Interindustry trade depends on differences across countries. • Intraindustry trade depends on market size and occurs among similar countries. 6 Interindustry and Intraindustry Trade Further Explained • Interindustry trade is a trade of products that belong to different industries. For instance, the trade of agricultural products produced in one country with technological equipment produced in another country can be classified to be an inter-industry trade. Countries usually engage in inter-industry trade according to their competitive advantages. • Intraindustry trade, on the other hand, is a trade of products that belong to the same industry. The term is usually applied to international trade, where the same types of goods or services are both imported and exported. 7 What is International Economics About? • How Much Trade? – Many governments are trying to shield certain industries from international competition. – This has created the debate dealing with the costs and benefits of protection relative to free trade. • Advanced countries’ policies engage in industrial targeting. • Developing countries’ policies promote industrialization: – Import substitution versus export promotion industrialization. 8 What is International Economics About? • The Balance of Payments – Some countries run large trade surpluses. • For example, in 1998 both China and South Korea ran trade surpluses of about $40 billion each. – Is it good to run a trade surplus and bad to run a trade deficit? • Exchange Rate Determination – The role of changing exchange rates is at the center of international economics. 9 What is International Economics About? • International Policy Coordination – A fundamental problem in international economics is how to produce an acceptable degree of harmony among the international trade and monetary policies of different countries without a world government that tells countries what to do. • The International Capital Market – There are risks associated with international capital markets: • Currency depreciation • National default 10 Globalisation • Definition: – An economic phenomenon? – A social phenomenon? – A cultural phenomenon? • Globalization: the process of integration among countries around the world with a vision of a single market entity. The movement towards the expansion of economic and social ties between countries through the spread of corporate institutions and the capitalist philosophy that leads to the shrinking of the world in economic terms. • Internationalization: the process of a business crossing national and cultural borders. 11 Globalisation http://wiki.ubc.ca/images/2/22/Globalisationmap.gif Globalisation could involve all these things! 12 International Economics – Is NOT about countries – It IS about interactions among countries Integration of Economies • The increasing reliance of economies on each other • The opportunities to be able to buy and sell in any country in the world • The opportunities for labour and capital to locate anywhere in the world • The growth of global markets in finance 13 International Economic Integration • International integration of national economies has brought many benefits to many nations – Technological innovation – Less expensive products – Greater investments in scarce resource regions • Today’s major economies are more integrated than they’ve been at any time in history – Instantaneous communications – Modern transportation – Relatively open trading systems • This allows most goods to move across boundaries without major obstacles and low relative costs 14 Elements of International Economic Integration There are four criteria or measures for judging the degree of integration: 1. 2. 3. 4. Trade flows Capital flows People flows Similarity of prices in separate markets Various Issues arise as a result. Can you think of some? 15 Corporate Domination • • • • • • Damage to the environment? Exploitation of labour? Monopoly power Economic degradation Non-renewable resources Damage to cultures Other Issues • Accountability of Global businesses? • Increased gap between rich and poor fuels potential violent reactions • Ethical responsibility of business? • Efforts to remove trade barriers 16 Who Trades the Most? ($ billions & % share, 2013) Exporters Value Importers Value Share Share EU-28* China 2307 2209 15.3 14.7 US EU-28* 2329 2235 15.4 14.8 US Japan Korea, S. 1580 715 560 15047 10.5 4.8 3.7 100.0 China Japan Hng Kng 1950 833 622 15121 12.9 5.5 4.1 100.0 World World *EU external only Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2014, Table I.8 17 The Definition of an Open Economy Trade patterns • Openness – Rough measure of the importance of international trade in a nation’s economy – Nation’s exports and imports as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Measure of openness or the trade to GDP ratio is the ratio of trade to GDP 18 Importance of Trade for Countries? (GDP in US$ b., Exports % of GDP Country USA China Japan Germany France Brazil UK Italy Russia India Canada Australia Spain Mexico South Korea Indonesia Turkey Saudi Arabia Argentina South Africa Level 13.49% 26.40% 14.73% 50.67% 28.28% 12.55% 29.84% 28.56% 28.37% 24.82% 30.08% 19.88% 31.56% 31.75% 53.92% 23.74% 25.65% 51.79% 14.27% 31.14% Units % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP As Of 2013 2013 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 1Y Chg -0.08% -0.92% -0.40% -1.12% 0.20% -0.03% -0.41% 0.30% -1.23% 0.82% 0.05% -1.44% 1.24% -0.90% -2.42% -0.55% -0.65% -2.63% -1.53% 1.22% ~10Y Ago 9.63% 34.08% 11.87% 38.55% 25.91% 16.43% 24.36% 24.05% 34.42% 17.55% 37.46% 17.01% 25.18% 26.23% 38.30% 32.22% 23.55% 50.99% 21.50% 26.42% ~25Y Ago 8.91% 10.60% 9.76% 24.22% 21.48% 8.93% 22.59% 18.57% 21.90% 6.90% 25.12% 15.14% 16.68% 19.00% 28.53% 24.29% 16.20% 33.75% 13.06% 26.69% Source: https://www.quandl.com/collections/economics/exports-as-share-of-gdp-by-country http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=WDI&f=Indicator_Code%3ANE.EXP.GNFS.ZS http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS 19 Importance of Trade for Countries? A Few More of Interest Hong Kong Korea, South Korea, North (2009) Burma Syria Israel GDP 272 1198 28 59 65 273 Exports/GDP 168% 47% 7% 15% 6% 22% Source: CIA World Fact Book 20 The Rise of the Emerging Economies Lecture 1: Overview 21 A Little History - Waves of Globalization • First Wave of Globalization: 1870-1914 • Decreases in tariff barriers • Technological developments – Declining transportation costs • Shift from sail to steamships; railways – Driven by European and American businesses and individuals © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 22 Waves of Globalization First Wave of Globalization: 1870-1914 – Exports as a share of world income • Nearly doubled to 8% – Per capita incomes increased 1.3% per year • Previous 50 years: 0.5% per year – Nations that actively participated in globalization • Became the richest countries in the world – Brought to an end by World War I © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 23 Waves of Globalization • The Great Depression of the 1930s – Governments practiced protectionism • Raised tariffs on imports – Tried to shift demand into domestic markets in order to » Promote sales for domestic companies » Promote jobs for domestic workers – Exports as a share of national income • Falls from 8% to 5%, undoing 80 years of technological progress in transportation © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 24 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 25 Waves of Globalization Second Wave of Globalization: 1945–1980 • Horrors of the retreat into nationalism renewed incentive for globalization • Falling transportation costs • Decrease previously established trade barriers • Trade liberalization – not uniform – Which countries participated? Mainly developed countries – Which products were included? Manufactured goods © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 26 Waves of Globalization • Trade liberalization discriminated – Developed countries, manufactured goods • Largely freed of barriers – Greatly increased the exchange of manufactured goods – Raised the incomes of developed countries – Developing countries • Exports from developing countries faced no barriers only for agricultural/primary goods that were not produced in developed countries • Exports of manufactured goods - sizable barriers © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 27 Waves of Globalization • New kind of trade – Rich country specialization in manufacturing niches • Gained productivity through agglomeration economies – Firms clustered together – Some clusters produced the same product – Others were connected by vertical linkages • Agglomeration economies – Benefits only those that are in the clusters – No benefit for those that are left out © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 28 Waves of Globalization • Most developing countries – Did not participate in the growth of global trade in manufacturing and services • Continuing trade barriers in developed countries • Unfavorable investment climates • Antitrade policies in developing countries – Dependence on agricultural and natural-resource products • Developing countries as a group were being left behind; World inequality © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 29 Waves of Globalization Latest Wave of Globalization, began in 1980 • Many developing countries participated led by – China, India, and Brazil – Entered the world markets for manufactured goods • Other developing countries – Increasingly marginalized in the world economy – Decreasing incomes – Increasing poverty • Significant international capital movements © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 30 Waves of Globalization • Some developing countries – Competitive advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing • Bangladesh, Malaysia, Turkey, Mexico, Hungary, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and the Philippines • Tariff cuts and Lower barriers to foreign investment • Technological progress in transportation and communications • Protectionist policies in developed countries – More globalized - international trade, capital flows – Less globalization - labor flows • Foreign outsourcing – Certain aspects of a product’s manufacture are performed in more than one country – What has been the effect? 31 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Waves of Globalization • By the 2000s, foreign outsourcing of white-collar work – Information Age • Digitization, Internet, and high-speed data networks around the world – Sending upscale jobs offshore • Accounting, chip design, engineering, basic research, and financial analysis • Foreign outsourcing – Reduce costs of a given service: 30 to 50% © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. 32 Capital and Labor Mobility Two types of capital flows: • flows of financial capital representing paper assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and bank accounts, and • flows of capital representing physical assets such as real estate, factories, and businesses foreign direct investment (FDI). 33 Capital and Labor Mobility When comparing international capital flows today to a century ago, two points to keep in mind: 1.Savings and investment are highly correlated 2.Technology improvements increase capital flows Important quality differences in capital flows today: 1. Many more financial instruments available 2. Role of foreign exchange transactions 3. Costs of foreign transactions has fallen significantly (transaction costs) 34 The U.S. as an Open Economy • Labor mobility in U.S. has not risen in past 100 years – 1900, 14% of U.S. population: foreign born – 1920s to 1960s – immigration sharply curtailed • Foreign-born U.S. population: 6% – 1960s, liberalized restrictions; By 2014 • 12% the U.S. population was foreign born • Foreigners: 14% percent of the labor force – Half from Latin America and one quarter Asians Capital flows to the U.S. • Foreign ownership of U.S. financial assets – Risen since the 1960s • 1970s, OPEC - investments in U.S. financial markets • 1980s, major flows of investment funds to U.S. • By late 1980s – U.S. - consuming more than it produced • Net borrower from the rest of the world 35 The U.S. as an Open Economy International banking • Average daily turnover in foreign-exchange market – Today: almost $4 trillion – 1986: $205 billion • The trading day begins in Tokyo and Sydney and moves around world in unbroken 24 hour cycle • London - the largest center for foreign-exchange trading 36 The U.S. as an Open Economy • Commercial banking – U.S. banks • Worldwide branch networks, 1960s and 1970s • Loans, payments, foreign-exchange trading – Foreign banks • Increased presence in U.S., 1980s and 1990s • Today: 250 foreign banks • Securities firms - globalized their operations – By 1980s, U.S. government securities • Traded on a 24-hour basis 37 Features of Contemporary International Economic Relations Deeper integration (based on extent of tariffs and quotas) Two trends the second half of 20th Century: 1.Lower trade barriers exposed most countries with domestic policies as obstacles to international trade 2.Labels such as “Made in China” or “Made in the USA” are less and less meaningful 38 Features of Contemporary International Economic Relations Shallow integration • reduction of tariffs and the elimination of quotas Deep integration • negotiations over domestic policies that impact international trade • more contentious and harder to accomplish 39 Features of Contemporary International Economic Relations Multilateral organizations International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) United Nations (UN) World Trade Organization (WTO) (grew out of the GATT) - Host of smaller organizations - 40 Features of Contemporary International Economic Relations Regional trade agreements (RTAs) – North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – European Union (EU) – Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR) – Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) – More than 330 have been recorded by the World Trade Organization 41 Trade and Economic Growth Economists remain convinced the benefits of trade outweigh the costs pointing to three kinds of evidence: – Casual empirical evidence of historical experience – Evidence based on economic models and deductive reasoning – Evidence from statistical comparisons of countries While none of these is conclusive by itself, together they provide evidence 42 Twelve Themes in International Economics 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. The Gains from Trade and New Trade Theory Wages, Jobs and Protection Trade Deficits Regional Trade Agreements The Resolution of Trade Conflicts The Role of International Institutions 43 Twelve Themes in International Economics (cont.) 7. Exchange Rates and the Macroeconomy 8. Financial Crisis and Global Contagion 9. Capital Flows and the Debt of Developing Countries 10. Latin America and the World Economy 11. Export-Led Growth in East Asia 12. The Integration of the BRICs into the World Economy 44 Common Fallacies of International Trade • “Trade is a zero-sum activity” – False; Both partners gain from trade • “Imports reduce employment and burden the economy, while exports promote growth and employment” – False; Source of this fallacy is the failure to consider the link between imports and exports • “Tariffs, quotas, and other import restrictions will save jobs and promote a higher level of employment” – False; failure to recognize that a reduction in imports does not occur in isolation • Free trade – Increases competition, lowers prices – Makes better products available to consumers – Results in higher consumption 45 Backlash Against Globalization Proponents of free trade and globalization say: • Countries prosper • New ideas and technology flow freely around the world • Productivity growth • Increasing living standards • Lower consumer prices • Increased variety of goods and services 46 Backlash Against Globalization Critics of free trade and globalization say: • Benefits large corporations at the expense of average citizens • Environmentalists – Elitist trade organizations like WTO make undemocratic decisions • Undermine national sovereignty on environmental regulation • Unions – Unfettered trade permits unfair competition • Human rights activists • World Bank and International Monetary Fund support governments that: – Allow sweatshops – Pursue policies that bail out governmental officials at the expense of local economies 47 http://www.slideshare.net/sallyleehall/globalization-3161053 48