AGEC 340 – International Economic Development Course slides for week 6 (Feb. 16 & 18) The Microeconomics of Development: Are low-income people “poor but efficient”?* – This starts proper microeconomics: a powerful way to explain peoples’ choices, particularly useful when looking over large numbers of people and long time periods * If you’re following the textbook, this is in chapter 5, pages 87-102. Are low-income people “inefficient”? • Why do the poor have low incomes? – Do they use what they have “inefficiently”? …or just have few resources? …or is something else holding them back? • Modern economics answers these questions in a very specific way! – Here we will use farming as an example, but same logic applies to any kind of production For example, • Why do farmers in a given place often use similar farming practices? • Why do farmers in different places use such different farming practices? How can we explain & predict production decisions? • We can start by describing what is possible, – then ask what is technically efficient, and – finally ask what is economically efficient. • With this approach we can understand differences and predict changes. As a farmer turns labor into crops, what levels of effort and yield might we see? crop yields (bu/acre) labor use (hrs/acre) This is our textbook “production function” or “input response curve” (IRC) The IRC defines a frontier of technical efficiency Qoutput crop to produce above the yields (bu/acre) the curve would be technologically impossible to produce below the curve would be inefficient labor use (hrs/acre) Qinput But what point along the IRC will people choose? Qoutput crop yields (bu/acre) point of maximum yields? segment with steepest slope? labor use (hrs/acre) Qinput Every point along the curve is technologically efficient, but not all are economically efficient • If producers want to maximize profit: = PoQo - PiQi (equation #1) • and then some algebra, to solve for Qo so we can draw a line like Y = mX+b: Subtract PoQo and from both sides -PoQo = - - PiQi and then divide both sides by –Po: Qo = /Po + (Pi/Po)Qi (equation #2) We can graph this equation... Qo crop yields (bu/acre) /Po The formula for this line is Qo = /Po + (Pi/Po)Qi labor use (hrs/acre) Qi … but there are there are as many of these lines as there are levels of profit. Qo crop yields (bu/acre) 3/Po 2/Po 1/Po Each line is Qo = /Po + (Pi/Po)Qi with the same slope (Pi/Po), but a different intercept (/Po) labor use (hrs/acre) Qi These lines are called “iso-profit” lines Qo crop yields (bu/acre) 3/Po 2/Po Slope = Pi/Po 1/Po labor use (hrs/acre) Qi …and we expect farmers will choose the point on IRC with the highest profit level This is the highest-possible level of profit */Po Slope = Pi/Po Because of diminishing returns, only one point can be economically optimal. Profits above * are technically impossible */Po Profits below * are economically inefficient At the optimal point, the isoprofit line crosses the IRC only once: the isoprofit line is “tangent” to the IRC We can do a similar analysis for farmer’s choice among outputs. Qty. of Corn per farm Holding all else constant! Qty. of Beans per farm What combinations of outputs do we expect to see? Qty. of Corn per farm Qty. of Beans per farm What combinations of outputs do we expect to see? Qty. of Corn per farm A “production possibilities frontier” (PPF) Qty. of Beans per farm We have a similar picture as before... Qty. of Corn per farm Technically impossible Technically inefficient Qty. of Beans per farm What is the economically efficient choice? • First the assumption that producers will maximize profit: = PcQc + PbQb (equation #1) • and then some algebra, to turn equation #1 into the equation for a line on our graph: Qc = /Pc - (Pb/Pc)Qb (equation #2) Graphing this equation we get: Qty. of Corn per farm Iso-revenue lines, of slope = -Pb/Pc Qty. of Beans per farm which we can use to find the efficient point: Qty. of Corn per farm Revenue (& profits) are highest; the iso-revenue line is tangent to the PPF Qty. of Beans per farm To apply this to choice among inputs… we can again hold all other things constant (both outputs and other inputs) tractor or animal use (hp-hrs) possible techniques to produce two tons of corn, using one acre of land, etc. labor use (person-hours) To apply this to choice among inputs… we can again hold all other things constant (both outputs and other inputs) tractor or animal use (hp-hrs) An “iso-quant” technically inefficient technically impossible labor use (person-hours) All points along the isoquant are “technically efficient”, but which is economically efficient? • In this case the assumption that producers maximize profit means minimizing costs: C = PlabQlab + PtracQtrac (equation #1) • and then some algebra, to turn equation #1 into the equation for a line on our graph: Qtrac = C/Ptrac - (Plab/Ptrac)Qlab (equation #2) Graphing this equation we get: tractor or animal use (hp-hrs) Iso-cost lines, of slope = -Plabor/Ptractor labor use (person-hours) and again only one choice can minimize costs (or maximize profits) Qtractors “iso-quant” iso-cost line (slope = -Plab/Ptrac) Qlabor So we have three kinds of diagrams... Qo Qo2 IRC Qi2 PPF Qi Isoquant Qo1 Qi1 The curves are fixed by nature and technology; they show the “frontier” of what is technologically possible to produce Qo Qo2 impossible Qi2 impossible inefficient inefficient inefficient impossible Qi Qo1 Qi1 The lines’ slopes are fixed by market values; they show the “relative prices” or what is economically desirable to produce Qo iso-profit lines Qo2 iso-revenue linesQi2 (slope = Pi/Po) (slope = -Po1/Po2) Qi Qo1 iso-cost lines (slope = -Pi1/Pi2) Qi1 The combination gives us the profit-maximizing combination of all inputs & all outputs Qo highest profit Qo2 Qi2 highest revenue Qi Qo1 lowest cost Qi1 Does profit maximization apply only to “modern” farmers? • No! We can do the same analysis using “values” (in any units) instead of prices. – the “values” cancel out, and the “price ratios” become a barter ratio at which the goods would be traded – For example, if the value of labor is $5/hr and the value of corn is $2.50/bushel, then the barter exchange ratio between them is 2 bushels/hour. – The “price ratio” or relative scarcity of two things does not depend on whether they are sold for cash. Profit-maximizing production choices depend only on relative prices or exchange ratios Qty. of corn (bu/acre) Qty. of corn (bu/acre) iso-profit line slope = Pl/Pc (corn exchanged for labor) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) iso-revenue line slope = -Pb/Pc (corn exchanged for beans) Qty. of beans (bushels/acre) iso-cost line slope = -Pl/Pm (machines exchanged for labor) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) With relative price lines and technological-possibilities curves we can predict the profit-maximizing combination of all inputs & all outputs. Qty. of corn (bu/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of corn (bu/acre) Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) Qty. of beans (bushels/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) We expect that farmers will try to be... • technically efficient on the curves • economically efficient at the point of highest profit: – highest profit along the IRC, – highest revenue along the PPF, – lowest cost along the isoquant. Putting the two ideas together... • with “technical efficiency” – a curve, representing what’s physically possible for a producer to do • and “economic efficiency” – a line, representing relative values • we get a specific prediction about what people are likely to choose What happens when prices change? • In developing countries, rapid population growth and few nonfarm job opportunities means that the number of people needing to work on farms rises; • If nothing else changes, labor becomes more abundant and its price goes down... …which graph(s) change? Qty. of corn (bu/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of corn (bu/acre) Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) Qty. of beans (bushels/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) We need to see where labor enters the picture... Qty. of corn Qty. of corn Qty. of machinery (bu/acre) (bu/acre) (hp/acre) iso-profit iso-revenue (slope=Pl/Pc) (-Pb/Pc) iso-cost (-Pl/Pm) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of beans (bushels/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) and ask what would be changed by more abundant (lower-priced) labor Qty. of corn (bu/acre) slope of isoprofit line = Plabor/Pcorn Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) slope of isocost line = -Plabor/Ptractors Qty. of labor (hours/acre) …in both cases the lines become less steep (a lower ratio, so a smaller slope) At the new prices, is the old choice still optimal? Qty. of corn (bu/acre) old slope = Pl/Pc new slope = Pl’/Pc Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) old slope = Pl/Pt new slope=Pl’/Pt Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Now, higher profits & lower costs could be reached if farmers move along the IRC & isoquant to a different technique, that was not optimal before. Qty. of corn (bu/acre) Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) higher profits more labor use, more corn production lower costs more labor use, less machinery Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of labor (hours/acre) In this way we can explain (and predict) how farmers respond to changing prices: Qty. of corn (bu/acre) a new price ratio a new optimum old optimum Qty. of labor (hours/acre) Qty. of machinery (hp/acre) a new price ratio old optimum a new optimum Qty. of labor (hours/acre) In summary… • Using these three simple diagrams helps you do the math on how an optimizing person would respond to change • Many studies find that real farmers do usually respond in these ways • Next week… if everyone’s already maximizing their profits, how can things improve?