Moderator
Wendy McBay
Senior Director, Marketing
CMD
 18 years construction industry marketing
 Six Sigma Green Belt certification
 MBA, Auburn University
#CMDInfo
2
@CMD_GroupLLC
@AIANational
@AGCofA
Before we begin..…
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#CMDInfo
4
CMD is a registered provider with the American Institute of Architects Continuing Education Systems. Credit earned on
completion of this program is reported to CES Records for AIA members. Certificates of Completion for non-AIA
members are available upon request.
This program is registered with the AIA/CES for continuing professional education. As such, it does not include content
that may be deemed or construed to be an approval or endorsement by the AIA of any material of construction or any
method or manner of handling, using, distributing or dealing in any material or product. Questions related to specific
materials, methods and services will be addressed at the conclusion of this presentation.
Learning objectives
• Review the 2014 U.S. economy, including employment, interest rates,
materials, foreign trade and construction starts
• Understand and discuss historical data and key construction forecasts
for all segments of the industry
• Anticipate business opportunities, target growth markets, compare
sales performance against market performance and create more
informed and successful sales and business plans
• Understand the impact of current market conditions and how those will
impact the performance of various construction sectors
#CMDInfo
5
Speaker
Alex Carrick
Chief Economist,
CMD
 Recently named CMD’s North American Chief
Economist, Alex Carrick has served since 1985
as Chief Economist for CanaData and Reed
 Alex’s online analyses are a popular feature of
the Daily Commercial News and Journal of
Commerce.
 BA in Economics from the University of Western
Ontario and an MA in Economics from the
University of Toronto.
@Alex_Carrick
6
One in three Americans lives
in one of only four states
2014 Ytd Starts vs 2009 to 2013 averages (or vs Previous 5-yr average)
Total U.S.
+7.7% Non-res bldg
+11.5% Heavy Engineering/Civil
California
Texas
New York
Florida
+5.5%
-5.3%
+3.7%
-0.9%
+20.6%
+22.4%
-9.8%
-5.6%
#CMDInfo
7
The top 10 U.S. oil producing states
#CMDInfo
8
United States’ foreign trade:
goods and services balance
$0
-$200
-$400
-$600
-$800
-$1,000
02-J
M
S
03-J
M
S
04-J
M
S
05-J
M
S
06-J
M
S
07-J
M
S
08-J
M
S
09-J
M
S
10-J
M
S
11-J
M
S
12-J
M
S
13-J
M
S
14-J
M
Aug
Billions of current U.S.
dollars (monthly figure
at annual rate)
$200
Year and month
U.S. has reduced its oil import dependency from 2/3s to 1/2 of all
demand; approaching self-reliance in natural gas. Also, U.S. is
repatriating jobs in energy-intensive industries (e.g., petrochemicals).
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
9
Top 10 U.S. states by
manufacturing employment
1st place California has 40% more workers
in manufacturing than 2nd place Texas.
#CMDInfo
10
States with motor vehicle assembly plants
Michigan is the leader with 12.
Grand total = 45.
#CMDInfo
11
States with the most IT firms
Massachusetts, Washington and Maryland
also prominent in high-tech employment.
Source: Infoworld.
#CMDInfo
12
U.S. employment: computer systems
design services - level
Number employed (millions)
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
0.9
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
13
U.S. state population growth table:
2012 to 2013
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
North Dakota
D.C.
Utah
Colorado
Texas
Nevada
South Dakota
Florida
Arizona
Washington
South Carolina
Wyoming
Idaho
North Carolina
Hawaii
Montana
Delaware
3.14%
2.06%
1.61%
1.52%
1.49%
1.30%
1.30%
1.20%
1.15%
1.10%
1.09%
1.05%
1.04%
1.02%
1.00%
0.96%
0.95%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Oklahoma
Virginia
California
Oregon
Georgia
Minnesota
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Alaska
Tennessee
Indiana
Louisiana
Iowa
New York
Kentucky
New Jersey
0.91%
0.90%
0.88%
0.78%
0.77%
0.76%
0.75%
0.72%
0.71%
0.66%
0.64%
0.51%
0.51%
0.50%
0.38%
0.36%
0.36%
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Alabama
Missouri
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Kansas
Mississippi
Ohio
New Hampshire
Michigan
Connecticut
Illinois
Rhode Island
Vermont
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Maine
West Virginia
0.34%
0.33%
0.32%
0.32%
0.30%
0.16%
0.15%
0.14%
0.13%
0.12%
0.11%
0.11%
0.11%
0.08%
0.07%
-0.01%
-0.13%
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
14
U.S. median household income
#CMDInfo
15
Median age of the population in
U.S. states, census year 2010
#CMDInfo
16
U.S. total employment – level
(based on seasonally adjusted data)
Number employed (millions)
142
May 2014
the turning point
139
136
133
130
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
127
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
17
Number of Initial Jobless Claims (000s)
U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly data)
700
600
500
400
300
200
For the Week Ending...
The latest data point is for the week ending October 25, 2014 (287,000).
Data source: U.S. Department of Labor/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
18
U.S. construction unemployment rate
(not seasonally adjusted)
30%
25%
15%
10%
5%
0%
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
Per cent
20%
Year and month
Data source: Household Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
19
U.S. construction employment – level
(based on seasonally adjusted data)
Number employed (millions)
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
5.0
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
20
Ranking of labor markets in major U.S. cities
Best (#1) to Worst (#49) − Fall 2014
1
2
3
4
5
6
6
8
9
10
11
11
13
14
14
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
24
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Oklahoma City, OK
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
Jacksonville, FL
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
Richmond, VA
Columbus, OH
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
26
27
27
29
30
30
32
33
33
35
36
36
38
38
40
41
42
43
43
43
46
47
48
49
Based on year-over-year job growth (highest to
lowest) and unemployment rates (lowest to highest).
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN
Rochester, NY
Pittsburgh, PA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Baltimore-Towson, MD
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
Kansas City, MO-KS
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
St. Louis, MO-IL
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Providence-Fall River-Warwick, RI-MA
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
Source of original data: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics/Calculation of composite ranking and
table: CMD.
#CMDInfo
21
Q3 year-to-date U.S. construction starts ‒
CMD ‒ historical comparisons
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
2014 Q1 to Q3 vs
2014 Q1 to Q3 vs average Q1 to Q3,
average Q1 to Q3 previous 5 years,
in 2007-2008 peak
2009 to 2013
(B)
(C)
Type of structure
2014 Q1 to Q3
(A)
Single-Family
Roads
Multi-Family
Water and Sewage Treatment
Elementary / Pre School
All Other Civil
Shopping
Jr / Sr High School
College / University
Hospitals / Clinics
Offices
Bridges
Government Offices
Manufacturing
Military
Warehouses
Hotels
Transportation Terminals
Amusement
Dams / Canals / Marine Work
Sports Arenas / Convention Centers
Retail Misc.
Airport
Nursing Homes
Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs
Libraries / Museums
Medical Misc.
Fire and Police Stations
Parking Garages
Religious
Special / Vocational
Prisons
Courthouses
Power Infrastructure
$119,366,158,926
$36,160,735,430
$31,651,879,901
$19,389,036,566
$13,933,740,019
$13,926,603,456
$13,864,464,514
$13,715,967,136
$12,938,730,105
$10,068,140,178
$9,770,712,427
$8,132,342,745
$8,120,084,607
$6,924,301,513
$6,440,441,865
$5,418,604,799
$5,388,726,639
$5,180,680,385
$4,797,604,125
$3,258,290,188
$3,189,652,560
$2,872,607,429
$2,755,044,057
$2,606,516,244
$1,922,771,731
$1,873,774,265
$1,803,611,698
$1,296,958,590
$1,256,389,181
$1,078,063,084
$1,018,466,898
$910,076,092
$752,331,460
$163,252,090
-24.5%
42.7%
-18.6%
9.3%
-17.0%
37.9%
-21.9%
-11.8%
9.8%
-29.1%
-28.0%
15.8%
50.2%
5.2%
98.8%
-12.0%
-50.3%
-2.3%
-31.3%
87.9%
10.4%
-39.4%
51.1%
-18.0%
-15.4%
-16.5%
-37.6%
-21.2%
-33.2%
-57.4%
3.9%
-58.1%
-45.7%
-84.3%
28.6%
16.1%
51.6%
10.2%
-3.4%
18.2%
36.5%
7.6%
11.5%
-19.0%
11.9%
-1.8%
2.7%
46.1%
17.5%
50.4%
26.7%
-23.1%
12.4%
3.0%
48.9%
27.1%
33.0%
3.2%
30.2%
-9.8%
-7.9%
-3.4%
-8.5%
-29.5%
9.5%
-41.2%
-31.2%
-85.3%
TOTAL
TOTAL LESS RESIDENTIAL
$371,946,760,903
$220,928,722,076
-12.4%
-3.0%
17.6%
9.1%
Ranking Based on $ Volume
in Column (A)
Color coding: red is hot;
blue is cool; green separates
out residential.
Data source: CMD “Insight”/Table: CMD.
#CMDInfo
22
Q3 year-to-date U.S. construction starts ‒
CMD ‒ historical comparisons
Type of structure
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
2014 Q1 to Q3
(A)
2014 Q1 to Q3 vs
average Q1 to Q3
in 2007-2008 peak
(B)
2014 Q1 to Q3 vs
average Q1 to Q3,
previous 5 years,
2009 to 2013
(C)
Multi-Family
Warehouses
Sports Arenas / Convention Centers
Manufacturing
Shopping
Airport
Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs
Single-Family
Retail Misc.
Hotels
All Other Civil
Military
Roads
Amusement
Offices
College / University
Water and Sewage Treatment
Special / Vocational
Jr / Sr High School
Nursing Homes
Dams / Canals / Marine Work
Government Offices
Bridges
Fire and Police Stations
Elementary / Pre School
Medical Misc.
Parking Garages
Libraries / Museums
Hospitals / Clinics
Transportation Terminals
Religious
Courthouses
Prisons
Power Infrastructure
$31,651,879,901
$5,418,604,799
$3,189,652,560
$6,924,301,513
$13,864,464,514
$2,755,044,057
$1,922,771,731
$119,366,158,926
$2,872,607,429
$5,388,726,639
$13,926,603,456
$6,440,441,865
$36,160,735,430
$4,797,604,125
$9,770,712,427
$12,938,730,105
$19,389,036,566
$1,018,466,898
$13,715,967,136
$2,606,516,244
$3,258,290,188
$8,120,084,607
$8,132,342,745
$1,296,958,590
$13,933,740,019
$1,803,611,698
$1,256,389,181
$1,873,774,265
$10,068,140,178
$5,180,680,385
$1,078,063,084
$752,331,460
$910,076,092
$163,252,090
-18.6%
-12.0%
10.4%
5.2%
-21.9%
51.1%
-15.4%
-24.5%
-39.4%
-50.3%
37.9%
98.8%
42.7%
-31.3%
-28.0%
9.8%
9.3%
3.9%
-11.8%
-18.0%
87.9%
50.2%
15.8%
-21.2%
-17.0%
-37.6%
-33.2%
-16.5%
-29.1%
-2.3%
-57.4%
-45.7%
-58.1%
-84.3%
51.6%
50.4%
48.9%
46.1%
36.5%
33.0%
30.2%
28.6%
27.1%
26.7%
18.2%
17.5%
16.1%
12.4%
11.9%
11.5%
10.2%
9.5%
7.6%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
-1.8%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-7.9%
-8.5%
-9.8%
-19.0%
-23.1%
-29.5%
-31.2%
-41.2%
-85.3%
TOTAL
TOTAL LESS RESIDENTIAL
$371,946,760,903
$220,928,722,076
-12.4%
-3.0%
17.6%
9.1%
Ranking Based on %
Change in Column (C)
Color coding: red is hot;
blue is cool; green separates
out residential.
Data source: CMD “Insight”/Table: CMD.
#CMDInfo
23
U.S. employment: architectural and
engineering services - level
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
Number employed (millions)
1.50
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
24
U.S. construction starts forecasts ‒
current $ billions ‒ CMD/Oxford Economics
Single Family
Multi Family
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
Hotels,Motels
Shopping
Parking Garages
Amusement
Offices
Govenmental Offices
Industrial Labs,Labs,School Labs
Warehouses
Sport,Convention Center
Transportation Terminals
Misc Commercial
TOTAL COMMERCIAL
Manufacturing
Religious
Hospitals,Clinics
Nursing Homes,Assisted Living
Library,Museum
Courthouse
Police,Fire
Prisons
Total Court/Police/Prison
Military
College,University
Elementary,Pre School
Jr,Sr High School
Special,Vocational
Total Schools
MED misc
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL
Retail Miscellaneous
TOTAL NON-RES BLDG
Airport
Roads
Bridges
Dams,Canals,Marine Work
Water,Sewage and Treatment
All Other Civil
Power Infrastructure
Misc Civil
TOTAL ENGINEERING
GRAND TOTAL
2013 (actuals)
146.21
43.21
189.42
6.86
18.61
1.98
5.42
14.76
9.50
1.71
4.14
2.88
11.46
14.33
77.32
7.60
1.71
14.78
3.93
2.27
1.29
1.58
1.25
4.13
4.95
16.77
15.39
15.19
1.02
48.38
2.55
82.70
3.26
170.87
2.85
41.20
10.66
5.37
23.71
17.47
0.46
17.93
101.72
462.01
2014 (estimates)
158.10
41.42
199.52
7.15
18.15
1.65
6.95
13.24
10.89
2.45
6.77
3.86
6.85
10.71
77.96
8.63
1.61
15.25
3.56
2.69
1.11
1.81
1.34
4.27
8.55
16.93
18.03
17.57
1.33
53.86
2.47
92.27
3.98
182.84
3.32
45.31
11.09
4.20
27.48
18.64
0.29
18.93
110.33
492.69
2015
191.53
47.76
239.29
9.72
20.82
2.01
7.60
16.31
10.95
2.45
6.57
3.32
8.07
11.39
87.82
8.63
2.94
18.93
4.14
2.95
1.40
2.07
2.03
5.51
5.83
16.93
21.19
18.84
1.33
58.28
3.16
101.74
4.80
202.98
2.98
43.91
11.35
3.53
30.13
17.82
0.50
18.32
110.21
552.48
2016
212.91
51.31
264.22
10.81
22.26
2.08
7.77
17.70
11.38
2.74
6.98
3.57
8.86
12.43
94.14
9.25
3.11
21.52
4.37
3.05
1.46
2.26
2.10
5.81
5.93
17.41
22.77
19.31
1.37
60.86
3.62
108.27
4.98
216.64
3.16
45.32
11.54
3.38
30.62
17.52
0.52
18.03
112.05
592.91
2017
227.23
53.57
280.80
11.04
23.50
2.14
8.03
18.43
11.51
2.97
7.17
3.72
9.86
13.58
98.35
9.70
3.20
23.87
4.52
3.05
1.51
2.28
2.24
6.03
6.06
17.76
24.48
19.31
1.37
62.92
3.84
113.49
5.22
226.76
3.25
45.39
11.68
3.48
31.66
18.15
0.54
18.69
114.14
621.70
2018
239.73
55.66
295.39
11.38
24.55
2.19
8.28
19.28
11.73
3.14
7.30
3.84
10.61
14.45
102.31
10.11
3.26
25.51
4.67
3.12
1.52
2.32
2.29
6.13
6.13
18.04
24.88
19.74
1.40
64.05
4.03
116.89
5.38
234.70
3.35
46.34
11.87
3.50
32.40
18.60
0.55
19.15
116.61
646.69
Data source: CMD/
Oxford Economics.
Table: CMD.
#CMDInfo
25
U.S. total construction starts – CMD
$800
$700
$ Billions
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
26
Key determinants of
residential construction
 Jobs;
U.S. total residential construction starts – CMD
 Incomes;
$450
$400
 Mortgage rates;
$350
 Home prices;
$300
 Second home demand;
 Move-up market;
 Empty-nester market;
 Foreign demand.
$ Billions
 Demographics;
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/
Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
27
U.S. total non-residential
building starts – CMD
$300
$250
$ Billions
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
28
U.S. total commercial
construction starts – CMD
$120
$100
$ Billions
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
29
Key determinants of
office building construction
U.S. employment: accounting and
bookkeeping services - level
 Office-based
employment;
 Well-being of financial
 “Cap” rates;
 Buy versus build;
 Public portion vs
private.
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
 Office vacancy rates;
Number employed (millions)
sector;
1.00
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of
Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
30
U.S. private office building
construction starts – CMD
$25
$ Billions
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
31
U.S. government office building
construction starts – CMD
$20
$ Billions
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
32
Key determinants of
retail construction
U.S. retail sales – three months smoothed
 Gasoline prices;
 Motor vehicle sales;
 Stock market prices;
 New electronic gadgets;
 Confidence.
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Total retail & food
Motor vehicles & parts
-30%
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
Sep
 Incomes;
Per cent change, year over year*
 Jobs;
Year and month
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau (Department of Commerce)/
Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
33
U.S. retail trade employment – level
(based on seasonally adjusted data)
15.5
15.0
14.5
14.0
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
Number employed (millions)
16.0
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
34
U.S. retail/shopping
construction starts – CMD
$30
$25
$ Billions
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
35
Key determinants of
warehouse construction
 Retail trade;
U.S. warehouse construction starts – CMD
 Foreign trade;
$10
 Internet trade;
$8
competitors;
 New border crossings;
 New port/airport
facilities.
$ Billions
 Arrival of new retail
$6
$4
$2
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/
Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
36
Key determinants of
hotel/motel construction
U.S. employment: leisure and
hospitality services - level
 Jobs and incomes;
 Business climate;
 Special events;
jet fuel;
 Value of U.S. dollar.
14
13
12
11
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
 Cost of gasoline and
Number employed (millions)
 Free trade agreements;
15
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of
Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
37
U.S. employment: autos and parts manufacturing
versus the gaming industry - level
1.600
1.400
1.300
1.200
1.100
1.000
0.900
0.800
Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing
0.700
Amusements, Gambling and Recreation
0.600
00-J
A
J
O
01-J
A
J
O
02-J
A
J
O
03-J
A
J
O
04-J
A
J
O
05-J
A
J
O
06-J
A
J
O
07-J
A
J
O
08-J
A
J
O
09-J
A
J
O
10-J
A
J
O
11-J
A
J
O
12-J
A
J
O
13-J
A
J
O
14-J
A
J
O
Number employed (millions)
1.500
Year and month
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
38
U.S. hotel/motel
construction starts – CMD
$20
$ Billions
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
39
Key determinants of
industrial construction
New York Stock Exchange –
Dow Jones Industrials (30)
 Capacity utilization
rates;
 Corporate profits;
16,000
 Stock markets;
outlook;
 Value of U.S. dollar;
11,497 Dec 1999
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
 World trade.
13,930 Oct 2007
91-Jan
July
92-Jan
July
93-Jan
July
94-Jan
July
95-Jan
July
96-Jan
July
97-Jan
July
98-Jan
July
99-Jan
July
00-Jan
July
01-Jan
July
02-Jan
July
03-Jan
July
04-Jan
July
05-Jan
July
06-Jan
July
07-Jan
July
08-Jan
July
09-Jan
July
10-Jan
July
11-Jan
July
12-Jan
July
13-Jan
July
14-Jan
July
Oct
 Resource demand
14,000
Index
 Commodity prices;
17,391
Oct 31
2014
18,000
Year and month
Data Source: Reuters/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
40
0
91-Jan
July
92-Jan
July
93-Jan
July
94-Jan
July
95-Jan
July
96-Jan
July
97-Jan
July
98-Jan
July
99-Jan
July
00-Jan
July
01-Jan
July
02-Jan
July
03-Jan
July
04-Jan
July
05-Jan
July
06-Jan
July
07-Jan
July
08-Jan
July
09-Jan
July
10-Jan
July
11-Jan
July
12-Jan
July
13-Jan
July
14-Jan
July
Oct
Index
New York Stock Exchange –
Standard and Poor’s (500)
2,100
1,517 Aug 2000
1,549 Oct 2007
1,800
2,018
Oct 31
2014
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
Year and month
Data Source: Reuters/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
41
U.S. total industrial/manufacturing
construction starts – CMD
$12
$10
$ Billions
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
42
U.S. total institutional
construction starts – CMD
$160
$140
$ Billions
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
43
U.S. total educational
construction starts – CMD
$80
$ Billions
$60
$40
$20
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
44
U.S. elementary and pre-school
construction starts – CMD
$35
$30
$ Billions
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
45
U.S. junior and senior high school
construction starts – CMD
$30
$25
$ Billions
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
46
Key determinants of
school construction
U.S. college and university
construction starts – CMD
 Demographics;
 Age distribution;
 Unemployment rate;
$25
 Financial health of
$20
boards;
 Bond markets;
 Stock markets;
 Endowment funds.
$ Billions
states and school
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/
Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
47
Key determinants of
health care construction
U.S. resident population
aged 65 and over
 Growing population;
 Aging population;
 Financial strength of
HMOs;
 Graduated seniors
care;
 Latest medical
advances.
Number of People (Millions)
 State balance sheets;
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
Source of actuals: U.S. Census Bureau/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
48
U.S. hospital and clinic
construction starts – CMD
$30
$25
$ Billions
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
49
Key determinants of
engineering construction
U.S. total heavy engineering/civil
construction starts – CMD
 Age of Infrastructure;
 Population change
(need for new
$150
infrastructure);
$125
 Financial health of all
 Commodity prices;
 Dedicated taxes.
$ Billions
levels of government;
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/
Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
50
U.S. bridge construction starts – CMD
$20
$ Billions
$15
$10
$5
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
51
U.S. roadwork construction starts – CMD
$60
$50
$ Billions
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
52
U.S. water and sewage treatment
construction starts – CMD
$40
$ Billions
$30
$20
$10
$0
Year
Source of actuals: CMD “Insight”/Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
53
0
91-Jan
July
92-Jan
July
93-Jan
July
94-Jan
July
95-Jan
July
96-Jan
July
97-Jan
July
98-Jan
July
99-Jan
July
00-Jan
July
01-Jan
July
02-Jan
July
03-Jan
July
04-Jan
July
05-Jan
July
06-Jan
July
07-Jan
July
08-Jan
July
09-Jan
July
10-Jan
July
11-Jan
July
12-Jan
July
13-Jan
July
14-Jan
July
Oct
Index
NASDAQ Composite Index
5,000
4,696 Feb 2000
4,631
Oct 31
2014
4,000
2,859 Oct 2007
3,000
2,000
1,000
Year and month
Data Source: Reuters/Chart: CMD.
#CMDInfo
54
Details
#CMDInfo
55
U.S. economic outlook – Fall 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
FORECASTS
2014est
2015
2016
(year-over-previous-year per cent change in annual average value)
Real GDP:
-2.8%
2.5%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.4%
3.2%
3.0%
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) -1.6%
1.9%
2.3%
1.8%
2.4%
2.7%
3.0%
3.2%
Durable goods
-5.5%
6.1%
6.1%
7.3%
6.7%
4.6%
3.8%
3.4%
Exports (goods & services)
-8.8%
11.9%
6.9%
3.3%
3.0%
3.8%
4.5%
5.2%
Imports (goods & services)
-13.7%
12.7%
5.5%
2.3%
1.1%
3.6%
4.7%
5.5%
Consumer price index (CPI-U)
(year-over-previous-year per cent change in annual average index value)
All items
-0.4%
1.6%
3.2%
2.1%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
Core
1.7%
1.0%
1.7%
2.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
(annual average per cent level)
Unemployment rate
9.3%
9.6%
8.9%
8.1%
7.4%
6.2%
5.8%
5.5%
(year-over-previous-year, millions of jobs based on annual average level)
Employment change
-5.479
-0.818
0.803
2.587
1.464
2.500
2.400
2.250
(year-over-previous-year per cent change in annual average value)
Corporate profits (pre-tax)
8.7%
25.0%
4.0%
11.4%
4.2%
1.0%
6.0%
6.5%
(millions of units)
Housing starts
0.554
0.587
0.609
0.781
0.925
1.075
1.265
1.396
(million of units)
Light motor vehicles sales
10.4
11.6
12.7
14.4
15.5
16.0
16.4
16.6
Federal Reserve
(annual average per cent level)
Federal funds rate
0.125% 0.125% 0.125% 0.125% 0.125% 0.125% 0.500% 2.000%
Data sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and
Department of Labor. Table and forecasts: CMD.
#CMDInfo
56
U.S. housing starts forecasts (units)
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total U.S. (units millions)
(year vs previous year)
2.073
1.812
1.342
0.900
0.554
6.3% -12.6% -25.9% -32.9% -38.4%
0.587
6.0%
0.609
3.7%
0.781
28.2%
0.925
18.4%
1.075
16.2%
1.265
17.7%
1.396
10.4%
1.485
6.3%
1.564
5.3%
Single-family (units 000s)
(yr/yr)
1,718.5 1,473.6 1,035.8
616.3
442.4
7.1% -14.3% -29.7% -40.5% -28.2%
472.4
6.8%
431.3
-8.7%
534.0
23.8%
616.0
15.4%
721.3
17.1%
862.1
19.5%
959.3 1,028.7 1,089.4
11.3%
7.2%
5.9%
354.4
2.5%
283.7
111.6
-7.3% -60.7%
114.1
2.2%
177.6
55.7%
246.8
39.0%
308.6
25.0%
353.7
14.6%
402.7
13.9%
437.1
8.5%
456.3
4.4%
474.1
3.9%
Northeast (units 000s)
(yr/yr)
189.3
170.3
142.8
119.6
60.9
8.6% -10.0% -16.1% -16.2% -49.1%
71.3
17.1%
68.2
-4.3%
79.7
16.9%
96.9
21.6%
130.0
34.2%
155.7
19.8%
168.7
8.3%
175.2
3.8%
182.0
3.9%
Midwest (units 000s)
(yr/yr)
357.3
284.1
206.2
134.4
95.2
0.5% -20.5% -27.4% -34.8% -29.2%
97.8
2.7%
102.9
5.2%
127.9
24.3%
149.6
17.0%
166.6
11.4%
193.1
15.9%
204.6
5.9%
218.1
6.6%
230.4
5.6%
912.0
675.6
450.8
280.8
-8.9% -25.9% -33.3% -37.7%
297.3
5.9%
306.0
2.9%
398.2
30.1%
463.5
16.4%
534.8
15.4%
635.0
18.7%
720.5
13.5%
776.8
7.8%
828.3
6.6%
525.8
445.5
317.3
195.2
117.2
2.5% -15.3% -28.8% -38.5% -40.0%
120.2
2.6%
131.8
9.7%
175.1
32.9%
214.8
22.7%
243.6
13.4%
280.9
15.3%
302.6
7.7%
315.0
4.1%
322.8
2.5%
West (units 000s)
(yr/yr)
1,000.6
10.4%
306.1
-9.5%
2008
Multi-family (units 000s)
(yr/yr)
South (units 000s)
(yr/yr)
338.3
-4.5%
2007
Source of actuals: Census Bureau / Forecasts: CMD/Oxford Economics "Insights". Table: CMD.
#CMDInfo
57
U.S. regional non-residential building construction
starts – CMD - through three quarters, 2014
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
Total New England
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Total Middle Atlantic
TOTAL NORTHEAST
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
Total East North Central
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Total West North Central
TOTAL MIDWEST
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
$2,725,256,738
$457,768,614
$4,393,897,809
$293,440,278
$251,111,852
$300,011,605
$8,421,486,896
$3,400,926,173
$10,693,865,876
$3,478,923,644
$17,573,715,693
$25,995,202,589
$4,502,832,951
$1,479,937,117
$2,453,160,700
$4,299,179,640
$1,344,564,514
$14,079,674,922
$1,361,789,377
$1,457,369,031
$2,219,928,092
$2,362,345,883
$995,441,787
$1,045,224,067
$385,012,479
$9,827,110,716
$23,906,785,638
$1,652,392,595
$589,961,179
$3,401,159,147
$349,063,191
$516,898,738
$180,565,050
$6,690,039,900
$2,867,420,308
$10,265,378,059
$4,497,380,122
$17,630,178,489
$24,320,218,389
$5,275,540,872
$2,395,310,817
$2,983,188,891
$3,561,106,809
$1,642,046,551
$15,857,193,940
$3,046,935,036
$1,489,153,586
$1,628,951,734
$2,720,823,889
$1,315,367,119
$1,202,759,876
$421,067,672
$11,825,058,912
$27,682,252,852
Data source: CMD/Table: CMD.
% Change
-39.4%
28.9%
-22.6%
19.0%
105.8%
-39.8%
-20.6%
-15.7%
-4.0%
29.3%
0.3%
-6.4%
17.2%
61.9%
21.6%
-17.2%
22.1%
12.6%
123.7%
2.2%
-26.6%
15.2%
32.1%
15.1%
9.4%
20.3%
15.8%
Jan-Sep 2013
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Maryland
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia
West Virginia
Total South Atlantic
Alabama
Kentucky
Mississippi
Tennessee
Total East South Central
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Texas
Total West South Central
TOTAL SOUTH
Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming
Total Mountain
Alaska
California
Hawaii
Oregon
Washington
Total Pacific
TOTAL WEST
TOTAL U.S.
$286,065,531
$931,702,864
$4,672,649,300
$3,649,665,853
$3,018,040,512
$2,593,377,244
$1,898,934,377
$3,187,054,299
$666,239,790
$20,903,729,770
$2,237,407,211
$1,690,398,823
$559,668,991
$2,028,653,029
$6,516,128,054
$1,941,457,860
$2,416,262,663
$1,486,865,459
$13,990,453,036
$19,835,039,018
$47,254,896,842
$1,654,762,363
$2,109,252,503
$407,272,162
$309,758,605
$607,207,496
$588,914,437
$1,330,575,825
$574,207,064
$7,581,950,455
$687,323,500
$13,685,296,755
$1,403,170,314
$4,554,609,965
$3,784,218,260
$24,114,618,794
$31,696,569,249
$128,853,454,318
Jan-Sep 2014
$244,345,355
$2,057,954,900
$5,433,805,490
$4,371,500,783
$4,501,496,878
$3,576,488,971
$2,050,279,421
$4,378,667,808
$552,244,891
$27,166,784,497
$2,263,784,590
$2,127,214,737
$1,344,682,617
$1,989,171,431
$7,724,853,375
$2,146,445,040
$1,668,007,938
$1,801,512,636
$12,603,669,294
$18,219,634,908
$53,111,272,780
$1,615,135,673
$2,024,915,509
$491,054,325
$389,479,807
$1,547,613,890
$692,479,027
$1,751,782,266
$711,816,109
$9,224,276,606
$662,089,269
$15,753,333,711
$1,165,459,304
$1,445,000,945
$3,779,513,688
$22,805,396,917
$32,029,673,523
$137,143,417,544
% Change
-14.6%
120.9%
16.3%
19.8%
49.2%
37.9%
8.0%
37.4%
-17.1%
30.0%
1.2%
25.8%
140.3%
-1.9%
18.5%
10.6%
-31.0%
21.2%
-9.9%
-8.1%
12.4%
-2.4%
-4.0%
20.6%
25.7%
154.9%
17.6%
31.7%
24.0%
21.7%
-3.7%
15.1%
-16.9%
-68.3%
-0.1%
-5.4%
1.1%
6.4%
#CMDInfo
58
U.S. regional heavy engineering/civil construction
starts – CMD - through three quarters, 2014
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
Total New England
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Total Middle Atlantic
TOTAL NORTHEAST
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
Total East North Central
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Total West North Central
TOTAL MIDWEST
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
$720,840,429
$370,165,324
$1,404,744,738
$200,820,399
$335,255,511
$199,554,285
$3,231,380,686
$2,397,647,744
$3,940,734,059
$3,496,308,502
$9,834,690,305
$13,066,070,991
$4,062,423,922
$1,715,307,284
$1,660,276,656
$2,933,482,952
$1,566,546,446
$11,938,037,260
$1,147,191,398
$1,151,050,772
$2,258,899,109
$1,245,737,257
$518,367,415
$1,073,052,576
$447,993,712
$7,842,292,239
$19,780,329,499
$740,255,855
$386,216,369
$1,674,436,502
$271,836,490
$269,249,831
$275,473,397
$3,617,468,444
$2,121,676,574
$4,028,530,276
$3,736,319,088
$9,886,525,938
$13,503,994,382
$4,649,114,406
$1,113,701,905
$1,831,248,206
$2,836,454,894
$1,625,981,537
$12,056,500,948
$1,257,203,438
$990,492,792
$2,267,591,069
$1,548,232,230
$902,013,024
$1,259,667,713
$415,971,074
$8,641,171,340
$20,697,672,288
Data source: CMD/Table: CMD.
% Change
2.7%
4.3%
19.2%
35.4%
-19.7%
38.0%
11.9%
-11.5%
2.2%
6.9%
0.5%
3.4%
14.4%
-35.1%
10.3%
-3.3%
3.8%
1.0%
9.6%
-13.9%
0.4%
24.3%
74.0%
17.4%
-7.1%
10.2%
4.6%
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Maryland
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia
West Virginia
Total South Atlantic
Alabama
Kentucky
Mississippi
Tennessee
Total East South Central
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Texas
Total West South Central
TOTAL SOUTH
Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming
Total Mountain
Alaska
California
Hawaii
Oregon
Washington
Total Pacific
TOTAL WEST
TOTAL U.S.
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
$182,763,844
$262,420,822
$3,960,342,986
$1,788,684,075
$1,637,793,886
$2,093,768,165
$867,942,529
$1,390,079,171
$592,639,011
$12,776,434,489
$1,026,040,125
$1,008,721,314
$880,071,457
$1,142,728,982
$4,057,561,878
$982,087,336
$1,760,446,953
$1,037,980,341
$6,285,223,606
$10,065,738,236
$26,899,734,603
$595,943,385
$998,302,524
$420,864,880
$474,266,169
$277,150,982
$345,408,595
$531,801,721
$385,014,907
$4,028,753,163
$625,106,197
$7,463,896,158
$756,233,044
$959,604,536
$1,988,212,303
$11,793,052,238
$15,821,805,401
$75,567,940,494
$179,841,137
$160,209,957
$3,443,222,408
$2,247,003,777
$2,216,851,003
$2,751,321,910
$1,228,687,868
$1,838,446,999
$473,701,986
$14,539,287,045
$1,287,367,846
$1,326,188,090
$795,107,838
$1,098,668,183
$4,507,331,957
$967,336,077
$1,847,231,354
$1,122,917,495
$7,318,357,104
$11,255,842,030
$30,302,461,032
$679,003,935
$1,354,470,884
$538,964,269
$359,306,180
$714,799,754
$604,616,501
$888,703,006
$641,146,187
$5,781,010,716
$873,602,053
$8,837,405,396
$512,188,533
$998,722,229
$2,278,247,903
$13,500,166,114
$19,281,176,830
$83,785,304,532
% Change
-1.6%
-38.9%
-13.1%
25.6%
35.4%
31.4%
41.6%
32.3%
-20.1%
13.8%
25.5%
31.5%
-9.7%
-3.9%
11.1%
-1.5%
4.9%
8.2%
16.4%
11.8%
12.6%
13.9%
35.7%
28.1%
-24.2%
157.9%
75.0%
67.1%
66.5%
43.5%
39.8%
18.4%
-32.3%
4.1%
14.6%
14.5%
21.9%
10.9%
#CMDInfo
59
U.S. Producer Price Index results ‒ Sept 2014
Product/Good/Service/Commodity
Sep 14 vs
Sep 13
(y/y)
Final Demand Construction
Construction for private capital investment
Construction for Government
New warehouse building construction
New school building construction
New office building construction
New industrial building construction
New health care building construction
Architectural & engineering services
Construction machinery & equipment
Asphalt
Plastic construction products
Softwood lumber
Hardwood lumber
Millwork
Plywood
Gypsum
Construction sand, gravel & crushed stone
Cement
Concrete products
Coal
Iron ore
Iron and steel scrap
Steel mill products
Fabricated structural metal products
Flat glass
Lighting fixtures
Plumbing fixtures & brass fittings
Heating equipment
Natural gas to electric utilities
Commercial electric power
Industrial electric power
Residential electric power
Commercial natural gas
Industrial natural gas
Residential natural gas
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
2.2%
3.5%
3.2%
3.3%
2.7%
2.1%
1.7%
10.1%
1.7%
10.2%
13.2%
2.9%
7.1%
7.5%
3.7%
5.7%
3.6%
-5.3%
2.5%
6.8%
4.7%
1.9%
1.5%
0.4%
3.1%
1.5%
10.0%
2.7%
6.7%
3.5%
7.3%
4.2%
6.2%
Sep 14 vs
Aug 14
(m/m)*
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.6%
0.3%
4.1%
-0.2%
2.7%
0.2%
0.3%
-1.9%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.3%
0.4%
-3.6%
2.3%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.8%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-0.2%
-0.9%
-1.3%
1.1%
* m/m is based
on seasonally
adjusted data.
Data source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Table: CMD.
#CMDInfo
60
Speaker
Kermit Baker
Chief Economist,
American Institute of Architects
 Originated AIA’s Architecture Billings Index and
AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
 Honorary member of the AIA
 Master’s degree in urban planning from Harvard
University; Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute
of Technology
@AIANational
61
Overview
- Broad trends in the construction activity;
- Tracking the housing recovery;
- Issues facing the nonresidential building industry;
- Outlook for the nonresidential sector for 2015 and beyond;
#CMDInfo
62
Since Downturn, Construction Activity Has Been a
Declining Share of Our Economy
Residential and nonresidential construction spending as a % of GDP
10%
8.4%
Residential
8.5%
8.0%
8%
Nonres
7.3%
3.7%
6.3%
4.0%
6%
5.4%
4.5%
5.1%
5.3%
5.4%
5.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
4.5%
4%
3.7%
2%
4.7%
3.4%
4.5%
3.5%
2.4%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.1%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014(e)
0%
2005
2006
2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
2008
#CMDInfo
63
Construction Recovery for This Cycle Has Been
Painfully Slow for Most Sectors
Spending at various points in the past construction cycle ($Billions)
$600
Peak
Trough
2014(p)
$501
$500
$434
$377
$400
$328
$337
$314
$276
$300
$193
$200
$105
$100
$53
$43
$15
$0
S-F construction
MF construction
Home improvements
Nonres bldg.
construction
Note; 2014 estimated through first three quarters; home improvement spending estimated from JCHS LIRA;
Source: JCHS and U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending Put-in-Place
#CMDInfo
64



Tracking the Housing Recovery
#CMDInfo
65
In Recent Years, Total Housing Demand Has Been
Well Below Trend of Past Several Decades
Residential completions plus mobile home placements, millions of units
2
1.74
1.61
1.70
1.5
0.96
1
0.82
0.70
0.64
0.70
0.5
2014(e)
2013
2012
2011
2010
2000s
1990s
1980s
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
#CMDInfo
66
House Prices Continue to Recover, Having Gained
Back More than 60% of Their Losses
Single-family house price index (Jan. 2000=100)
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
-32.5%
+30.5%
130
Source: CoreLogic National House Price Index (HPI), Single family attached and detached structures as of July, 2014
#CMDInfo
67
House Prices Are Recovering the Fastest in
Many Previously Distressed Markets
Change in Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) – Median estimated home value for all homes,
August 2013 – August 2014 (Percent)
10 metros with
largest increase
10 metros with
largest decrease
National change = 6.6%
Notes: Metro areas mapped are top 50 by 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Population
Source: JCHS calculations of Zillow, Median estimated home value for all homes (includes single family residence, condo/co-op).
#CMDInfo
68
House Price-to-Income Ratios Currently Close to
Historical Averages in Most Large Metro Areas
Residential single-family existing house price to household income, (ratio, SA)
4.0
Long Run Average (1989-2013)
2014-Q2
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR): Real Estate Outlook; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); U.S. Census Bureau (BOC); Moody's
Analytics (ECCA) Estimated
#CMDInfo
69
Housing Starts Expected to Increase Sharply, But Still
Years Away From Returning to Historical Levels
Total Housing Starts (millions)
Zelman
&
Assoc.
Standard
& Poor’s
0.99
1.02
1.02
1.28
1.12
1.18
1.28
NA
1.25
1.36
1.53
Fannie
Mae
Freddie
Mac
Moody’s
Analytics
2014
1.01
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.02
2015
1.17
1.30
1.53
1.16
1.24
2016
NA
NA
1.91
NA
1.54
Sep-14
Sep-14
F’cast
Date
Sep-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
MBA
NAHB
NAR
Oct-14
Wells
Fargo
Oct-14
Oct-14
Consensus
(average)
1.01
(+11%)
1.25
(+24%)
1.52
(+22%)
Sep-14
#CMDInfo
70
Nonresidential Building Trends and Outlook
#CMDInfo
71
Institutional Categories Account for Over Half the
Spending on Nonresidential Buildings
Share of U.S. nonresidential building construction spending, 2004-2013
Office, 12.4%
Commercial/Industrial =
$169.3 billion
Commun., 5.2%
Transportation, 8.7%
Amuse./Rec., 4.6%
Retail/Other Comm.,
16.2%
Public Safety, 2.6%
Religious, 1.6%
Health Care, 10.4%
Lodging, 4.7%
Institutional = $ 215.4
Education, 22.9%
Manufacturing,
10.7%
2004-2013 average = $384.7 billion
Source: Construction Spending Put-in-Place, U.S. Department of Commerce
#CMDInfo
72
Since the 2011 Market Bottom, Nonresidential
Building Spending Has Seen Only Modest Recovery
National spending, and annual percent change in spending, on nonresidential buildings*
$600
40%
$501
$500
$463
$390
$400
$309
$324
$346
6.7%
$300
$434
18.8%
20%
$348
$337
$356
$377
8.2%
12.7%
5.3%
5.0%
$200
$355
0.3%
5.9%
0%
-3.8%
-3.2%
-13.4%
-20%
-19.8%
$100
Spending
2014(e)
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-40%
2003
$0
Annual % Change
Note: Nonresidential construction categories covered include: commercial, office, lodging, manufacturing, health care, educational,
religious, public safety, amusement and recreation, transportation, communication.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Construction Spending Put-in-Place, estimate through June 2014.
#CMDInfo
73
Nonresidential Building Activity Improves Modestly
Through First Three Quarters of 2014
Billions of $, NSA, totals for Jan – Sep, 2014
Total Nonres. Bldg. Construction
Commercial/Industrial
Lodging
Office
Commercial (retail and other)
Manufacturing
Institutional
Sep 2014p
$276.4
Sep 2013
$263.8
% change
4.8%
123.7
109.4
13.1%
11.6
32.1
41.1
38.9
9.8
27.3
37.2
35.1
18.2%
17.6%
10.3%
11.0%
152.7
154.4
-1.1%
Health care
Educational
Religious
Public safety
Amusement and recreation
Transportation
28.9
60.1
2.7
6.9
12.0
30.3
31.1
60.1
2.8
7.2
11.3
29.4
-7.0%
0.0%
-3.5%
-4.6%
6.2%
3.0%
Communication
11.8
12.4
-5.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Value of Construction Put in Place
#CMDInfo
74
At Present, Coastal Markets Have Lower Office
Vacancy Rates
Overall Office vacancy rates for top 5 and bottom 5 major U.S. markets , Q3-2014
30%
25%
20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6%
22.3%
20%
15.2%
15%
11.5% 11.7%
10%
5%
8.3%
8.5%
4.2%
0%
Source: Cushman and Wakefield
#CMDInfo
75
Construction Employment Off From Peak; Heaviest
Losses in New Construction Oriented Occupations
Number of people employed in the construction industry (000s)
2007
Drywall Installers
2012
Percent Chg.
272
175
-35.7%
2,225
1,535
-31.0%
395
274
-30.8%
54
40
-26.9%
251
188
-25.3%
1,821
1,407
-22.7%
Painters & Paperhangers
798
677
-15.2%
Plumbers
593
510
-14.0%
2,469
2,224
-9.9%
695
646
-7.1%
Glaziers
34
33
-1.9%
Roofers
313
309
-1.3%
50
52
5.3%
9,969
8,068
-19.1%
Supervisors & Managers
Masons
Plasterers
Flooring Installers
Carpenters
Laborers & Helpers
Electricians
Insulation Workers
Total
Source: JCHS tabulations of the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS).
#CMDInfo
76
Average Age of Construction Workforce Has
Increased Since Downturn
Share of population in construction industry labor force
50%
2007
2012
40.6%
40%
32.9%
34.5%
31.0%
30%
20%
25.1% 24.4%
19.0%
13.3%
10%
3.5% 3.1%
0%
Age 55 & Over
Under Age 35
More Than HS
Education
Foreign-Born
Women
Notes: In 2007, 10.0 million people were occupied in the construction industry. This estimate fell to 8.1 million in 2012. Annualized earnings of
$15,000 a year is roughly equivalent to working year-round at the federal minimum wage.
Source: JCHS tabulations of the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS).
#CMDInfo
77
Though Volatile Recently, Architecture Billings Are
in the Midst of a Strong Upturn…
diffusion index: 50 = no change from previous month, seasonally adjusted
60
55
50
45
40
Source: AIA Architecture Billings Index
#CMDInfo
78
…And the Volume of New Design Contracts
Indicates That Billings Will Continue to Accelerate
diffusion index: 50 = no change from previous month, seasonally adjusted
60
Billings
55
New Design Contracts
50
45
40
Source: AIA Architecture Billings Index
#CMDInfo
79
Projects Stalled During Downturn
Starting to Resurface
% of responding firms
% firms - stalled projects
76%
% with projects resurfacing
43%
% of stalled projects likely to be completed
20%
0%
20%
Source: The American Institute of Architects Work on the Boards Survey, September, 2014.
40%
60%
80%
100%
#CMDInfo
80
Recent Upturn Has Lifted Business Conditions For
Firms Serving All the Major Construction Sectors
Billings scores since 2008; index: 50 = no change from previous month
60
Residential
Commercial/ Industrial
Institutional
55
50
45
40
Jan
'10
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
'11
Apr
Source: AIA Architecture Billings Index
Jul
Oct
Jan
'12
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
'13
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
'14
Apr
Jul
Oct
#CMDInfo
81
Commercial Construction Upturn Paces Broader
Nonresidential Building Recovery
Billions of $ of Construction Spending
$300
Annual Percent Change
$299
11.2%
9.9%
$200
10%
9.2%
8.1%
$100
15%
2013 Spending level
2014 % change
2015 % change
4.4%
7.6%
$147
5.8%
$102
5%
$49
$0
0%
-0.1%
-$100
-5%
Total Nonres.
Commercial
Source: AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel, July, 2014
Industrial
Institutional
#CMDInfo
82
Speaker
Ken Simonson
Chief Economist,
AGC of America
 AGC Chief Economist since 2001; 2012-13
President, National Association for Business
Economics
 Writes The Data DiGest weekly construction
economics bulletin with 47,000 subscribers
 BA in economics from the University of Chicago
and MA in economics from Northwestern
University
@KenSimonson
83
Construction spending & employment, 2006-14
Total spending, Jan. 2006-Sept. 2014
billion $, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)
$1,250
$1,000
$750
$500
$250
$0
2006
9/14: $951 bil.
2008
2010
2012
2014
12-month % change, Jan. 2006-Sept. 2014
30%
15%
0%
-15%
-30%
2006
2008
2010
2012
Total (9/13-9/14: 3%)
Res (1%)
Private Nonres (6%)
Public (2%)
Source: BLS, Census Bureau construction spending reports
Total employment, Jan. 2006-Sept. 2014
thousands, seasonally adjusted
7,500
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0
2006
9/14: 6,079,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
12-month % change, Jan. 2006-Sept. 2014
10%
0%
-10%
2014
-20%
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Total (9/13-9/14: 3.9%)
Residential (5.9%)
Nonresidential (2.7%)
#CMDInfo
84
Construction is growing, but unevenly
3 trends helping many sectors and regions:
• ‘Shale gale’
• Panama Canal expansion
• Residential revival, especially multifamily
3 trends holding down construction growth:
• Government spends less on schools, infrastructure
• Consumers switch from stores to online buying
• Employers shrink office space per employee
Source: Author
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85
One (or many) bright spot(s): the shale ‘gale’
Bakken
Marcellus
Niobrara
Haynesville
Permian
Eagle Ford
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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86
Shale’s direct and indirect impacts on construction
• Onsite: Each well requires access road, site prep, pad,
storage pond, support structures, pipes
• Nearby: Products, water require trucking, rail, pipeline,
processing
• Local spending by drilling firms, workers, royalty
holders
• Upstream: orders for fracking sand, rigs, compressors,
pumps, pipe, tanks, trucks, railcars, processing facilities
• Downstream: Petrochemical, power, steel plants; LNG
export terminals, fueling stations; LNG-powered vehicles
• Losers: coal; maybe wind, solar, nuclear & suppliers
Source: Author
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87
U.S. ports affected by Panama Canal expansion
Seattle & Tacoma
Columbia River at
Mouth, OR & WA
NY-NJ
Oakland
Baltimore
Norfolk
Los Angeles/
Long Beach
San Diego
Houston
Mobile
New Orleans
Charleston
Savannah
Jacksonville
Miami
Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
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88
Panama Canal expansion’s impacts on construction
• Ports: investing in dredging, piers, cranes, land
access
• Nearby: Storage, warehouse, trucking, rail facilities
• Bridge, tunnel, highway improvements
• Inland: possible changes in distribution,
manufacturing
Source: Author
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89
Private residential spending: MF still soaring,
SF slowing
Billion $
$450 Private residential spending, Jan. 2011-September 2014 (billion $, SAAR)
$375
Multifamily (MF)
$300
$225
Single family (SF)
$150
$75
$0
2011
Improvements
2012
2013
2014
12 month % change
12-month % change, Jan. 2011-September 2014
60%
45%
30%
Multifamily: 26%
15%
Single family: 10%
Total: 1%
0%
-15%
2011
Improvements: -17%
2012
Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports
2013
2014
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90
Housing outlook
• SF: rising for now but tight credit, fear of lock-in,
demographic shifts may limit increases
• MF: Upturn should last into 2015
– Vacancy rates near multi-year lows in most cities
– Preference for urban living adds to demand
– Condos have been slower to revive than rentals
– Government-subsidized market likely to worsen
• Improvements: should generally track SF sales
Source: Author
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91
Nonres segments, 2013 & 2014 forecast
(billion $, SAAR)
9/14 Total 2013 vs. 2012 2014 Forecast
Nonresidential
$596billion
Power (incl. oil & gas structures, pipelines)
95
Highway and street
80
Educational
80
Commercial (retail, warehouse, farm)
58
Manufacturing
55
Office
45
Transportation
40
Health care
38
Sewage and waste disposal
23
Lodging
17
Amusement & recreation
16
Other (Communication; water; public safety;
conservation; religious): 8% of total
Source: Census Bureau construction spending report; Author’s forecast
-1 %
-7
1
-8
8
0
0
5
-2
-3
25
0
4-8%
10+
0 to -5
0 to -5
0 to 5
10+
0 to 5
2 to 5
0 to -5
10+
-2
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92
Construction spending: public works
(billion $, SAAR)
$90
Highways (99.8% public)
Sewage/waste (99% public)
$30
$60
$20
$30
$10
$0
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: -1.7%
Latest 12-mo. change: 1%
Amusement & recreation (55% public)
Water supply (96% public)
$30
$30
$20
$20
$10
$10
$0
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: 1%
Latest 12-mo. change: -2%
Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports
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93
Construction spending: industrial, heavy
(billion $, SAAR)
$120
Power (88% private)
$60
$90
$45
$60
$30
$30
$15
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: 16%
Latest 12-mo. change: 2% (private 2%; public 0.1%)
$60
Transportation facilities (71% public)
Public & private transportation facilities
$60
$45
$45
$30
$30
$15
$15
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: 1%
Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports
Manufacturing (99% private)
Public
Private
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: private 6%; public -1%
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94
Construction spending: institutional
(private + state/local)
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Total education (79% public)
Education (state & local K-12, higher; private)
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
S/L preK-12
S/L higher ed
Private
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: 7%
Latest: state/local preK-12 6%, higher 12%; private
3%
Total healthcare (72% private)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: -8%
Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports
Hospitals (private, state & local)
$50
$40
$30 Private
$20
$10 S/L
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: private -10%; state & local -9%
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95
Construction spending: developer-financed
(billion $, SAAR)
$80
Retail (private)
$60
$60
$40
$40
$20
$20
$0
$0
$40
Office (83% private)
$80
Total
Private
Public
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: 5%
Latest 12-mo. change: 16% (private 18%; public
6%)
Warehouse (private)
$40
$30
$30
$20
$20
$10
$10
$0
$0
Lodging (private)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latest 12-mo. change: 56%
Latest 12-mo. change: 15%
Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports
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96
State construction employment change (U.S.: 3.9%)
9/13 to 9/14: 39 states up, 10 down
Over -10%
-5.1% to -10%
-0.1% to -5%
0%
0.1% to 5%
5.1% to 10%
5%
1%
10%
7%
-1%
-3%
7%
13%
4%
0.5%
1%
6%
3%
6%
4%
-6%
2%
2%
0%
5%
6%
1%
MA
1%
-0.1%
CT
6%
RI
4%
4%
DE
13%
NJ
-8%
4%
MD
3%
DC
0%
-6%
-1%
6%
9%
-3%
-2%
1%
3%
11%
3%
NH
-2%
VT
4%
5%
5%
Over 10%
2%
5%
8%
11%
Shading based on
unrounded numbers
HI
2%
Source: BLS state and regional employment report
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97
Construction employment, Sep. ‘14 vs. peak
• US: construction -21% (-1.6 million) below Apr. ‘06 peak
• States: La., Okla. and N.D. at new peak in 2014, 43 states >
10% below
• Metros: only 33 of 339 at new Sep. peak, not seas. adjusted
Peak in 2014
Within 10% of peak
>10% below peak
F
Source: Author, from BLS national and state & area employment data
(www.bls.gov/ces. www.bls.gov/sae)
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99
Construction spending, labor & prices, 9/10-9/14
Spending +19% but jobs only +10%. How do they do it?
• Contractors charging more: PPI +11% (nonresidential buildings)
• More hours per worker: aggregate hours +13% (+2% per employee)
• Implication: further spending growth will trigger larger pickup in
hiring—but will workers be available?
19%
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
Spending
% change 9/10-9/14
% change 9/10-9/14
20%
Employment
Source: Author, from Census Bureau (spending), BLS (employment, hours, PPI)
15%
10%
5%
19% total
11% price
change
13%
7% real
0%
Spending
Total hours worked
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100
Change in construction (un)employment, 10/10-10/14
• Construction unemployment fell sharply in past 4 years
• But industry employment rose much less
• Thus, workers left for other sectors, school, retirement
Unemployment rates
Change in unemployment & employment
(Not seasonally adjusted, Oct. 2010-Oct. 2014)
(Not seasonally adjusted, Oct. 2010-Oct. 2014)
20%
17.3%
In Millions
15%
1.00
10%
9.0%
5%
6.4%
5.5%
315,000
0.75
0.50
Workers who
have left industry
903,000
588,000
0.25
0.00
0%
October '10
Construction
Source: Author, from BLS
October '14
Total
Decrease in
construction
unemployment
Change in
construction
employment
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101
Hardest positions to fill
(% of respondents who are having trouble filling)
Craft
Carpenters
66%
Roofers
64
Equipment operators
59
Plumbers
54
Electricians
52
Professional
Project managers/supervisors
48%
Estimators
32
Source: AGC Member Survey, Jan. 2014
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102
Material & labor costs vs. nonresidential building
prices 12/10-9/14
112
PPI for nonres
buildings
9/13-9/14: 3.1%
December 2010 = 100
110
PPI for materials
9/13-9/14: 1.6%
108
ECI (empl. cost)
9/13-9/14: 1.4%
106
104
102
100 12/10
2011
2012
2013
Source: Author, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics for Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) and
Employment Cost Index (ECI); Federal Highway Administration for NHCCI
2014
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103
Producer price indexes for key inputs, 12/10-9/14
(Dec. 2010=100)
Steel mill products
Copper & brass mill shapes
140
140
120
120
100
100
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Latest 1-mo. change: 0.1%, 12-mo.: 5%
Latest 1-mo. change: -0.8%, 12-mo.: -2%
Gypsum products
Lumber & plywood
140
140
120
120
100
100
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Latest 1-mo. change: -0.1%, 12-mo.: 7%
Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Latest 1-mo. change: 0.3%, 12-mo.: 11%
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104
Producer price indexes for key inputs, 12/10-9/14
(Dec. 2010=100)
Diesel fuel
Concrete products
140
140
120
120
100
100
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Latest 1-mo. change: -1.4%, 12-mo.: -8%
Latest 1-mo. change: -0.3%, 12-mo.: 4%
Plastic construction products
Asphalt paving mixtures & blocks
140
140
120
120
100
100
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Latest 1-mo. change: -0.2%, 12-mo.: 2%
Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports
8012/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
Latest 1-mo. change: -0.1%, 12-mo.: 2%
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105
Best prospects for 2014-15
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Multifamily
Manufacturing, esp. petrochemical, oil/gas supply
Oil & gas fields
Pipelines
Warehouses
Lodging (hotels & resorts)
Rail
Data centers
Source: Author
#CMDInfo
106
Trends: 2014-2017
• Total construction spending: +6% to +10% per year
– less SF housing, retail; declining public spending
– new drivers: shale-based gas & oil; Panama Canal
widening; more elderly & kids, fewer young adults
• Materials costs: +1 to +3% (similar to CPI); rare spikes
• Labor costs: +2.5% to + 5%
• Labor supply: widespread shortages possible due to
retirements, competition from other sectors, fewer vets
Source: Author
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107
Summary for 2013, 2014-17
2013
actual
Total spending
2014
forecast
2015-17
ann. avg.
forecast
6%
6-9%
6-10%
Private – residential
20%
6-10%
1-10%
– nonresidential
1%
12-15%
1-10%
Public
-3%
-1 to +2%
Materials PPI
1.3%
1-2%
Employment cost index
2.0%
1.5-2.5%
Source: 2012: Census, BLS; 2013-17: Author’s ests.
0 or less
1-3%; rare spikes
2.5-5%
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108
AGC economic resources
(email simonsonk@agc.org)
• The Data DIGest: weekly 1-page email
(subscribe at www.agc.org/datadigest)
• monthly press releases: spending; PPI;
national, state, metro employment
• state and metro data, fact sheets
• website: http://www.agc.org/Economics
• webinars: Nov. 20 (email for details)
@AGCofA
109
This concludes The American Institute of Architects
Continuing Education Systems Program
Questions & Answers
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