The U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbon Agreement: Pending Issues George Baker, Mexico Energy Intelligence, 713-255-0000, g.baker@energia.com Overview The U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbon Agreement, signed February 22, 2012, represents the first such agreement covering mineral rights for either country. It is the result of low-profile discussions in meetings since 2009 that have been held in Cuernavaca, Villahermosa, New Orleans, Mexico City and Washington, DC. Discussions were attended by representatives of the U.S. State, Energy and Interior Departments (with input from industry and academic sources), and, on the side of Mexico, by representatives of the Foreign and Energy Ministries and Pemex. Assuming that a cross-border oilfield that has geological continuity and is deemed commercial, the agreement, which covers only such fields nine or more miles offshore, could play out in two ways: 1) A unitization agreement will fail, the Mexican side will not agree to a single operator with full authority on both sides of the border (and which, on account of its lack of experience, cannot be Pemex); in this case, the U.S.-side operator will proceed independently, with substantial opportunity costs compared to the economic efficiency of a unitized field. 2) A unitization agreement will be negotiated with corresponding changes in not only in Mexican legislation and regulations but also in relation to the nation’s Petroleum Narrative. The presentation will explain the architecture of cross-border oilfield administration, and focus on the critical issue of a unified authority under a single operator. Reference will also be made to the resistance that will be encountered arising from the restrictions of the Mexican Petroleum Narrative, as well as by the objections of some Mexican senators who have asked legitimate questions, such as the following: What is the intended role of the Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH) in the administration of the Agreement? And, How is Mexico supposed to negotiate a crossborder agreement within the initial nine (9) miles of the maritime border that extends eastward from Brownsville? Methods The terms and concepts of the Agreement were examined in relation to a) international practices regarding crossborder oilfields, b) Mexican petroleum legislation, c) Pemex deepwater drilling record and capabilities, c) Mexican regulatory institutions, d) the debate on cross-border oilfields in the Energy Forum of 2008 and e) Mexico’s Petroleum Narrative, which prohibits the participation of third parties in Mexico as producers of oil and gas on a market basis. May 30, 2012 Page 1 of 2 George Baker, The U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbon Agreement: Pending Issues (Abstract for USAEE North America Conference) Results 1) The Agreement is a very incomplete document, one that falls short of setting forth a framework for the development of a real-world, commercial discovery. The “falling short” reflected the practical, theoretical and ideological limits of what the two sides could agree on. 2) Nevertheless, the Agreement is an important agreement to negotiate in the probable case that a cross-border oilfield is discovered and determined to be commercial. 3) Ideally, the Agreement at some point in the future could be used as the template for a common Gulf of Mexico accord that includes Cuba. Conclusions By intent, the preliminary agreement was meant as a template could be applied globally to any cross-border mineral negotiations between two or more countries. The agreement, as written, cannot be implemented without additional text and a change in Mexican law and regulations. There will also need to be a change in the Mexican Petroleum Narrative; but this challenge will be made more difficult by virtue of Pemex’s opposition and by the inexperience of the new government that will come into office on Dec. 1, 2012. Nothing further will be done to tinker with the terms of the Agreement until a commercial discovery is made that establishes a cross-border oil or gas field. References Data sources included interviews with regulators as well as with persons who were familiar with the negotiations (sources who have requested anonymity). The author also draws on his prior publications on this topic (WORLD OIL, August 2007), in addition to an industry report that was issued on March 27, 2012. Mexican sources include the transcript of the hearing on April 12, 2012, of the Energy Commission of the Mexican Senate in relation to the approval of the cross-border agreement, as well as the Memorandum of the Foreign Ministry of March 12, 2012, concerning the rationale of the treaty. A paper was presented by Miriam Grunstein, “Cross-Border Reservoirs: The Fine Line between Fear and Cooperation,” to the Texas Energy Trade Mission, Aug. 27, 2008. During the Senate Debates on Energy Reform, there was a special session on June 5, 2008, on cross-border oilfields. http://www.senado.gob.mx/reforma_energetica/content/foros/foro8.htm May 30, 2012 Page 2 of 2