IPCC and
Carbon Management
Responding to Climate
Change, Spring 2011
Peter Schlosser, Juerg Matter
Carbon Reservoir Sizes
2
Carbon Cycle
3
The problem
• Developed and developing countries are using
increasing amounts of primary energy
• Most of this primary energy is produced by burning
of fossil fuel
• This has already led to significant increases in the
atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas
CO2 accounting for roughly one half of the
anthropogenically induced Greenhouse Gas Effect
• Future projections point towards at least doubling of
the natural atm CO2 concentrations (560 ppm)
• The projected global warming would be in the vicinity
of 3 degrees Celsius (IPCC 2007)
IPCC 2007
• Recognizing the problem of potential global climate change, the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
1988. It is open to all members of the UN and WMO.
• The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive,
objective, open and transparent basis the scientific,
technical and socio-economic information relevant to
understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced
climate change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out
research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant
parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and
published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation,
participation and general procedures are laid down in the
"Principles Governing IPCC Work"
http://www.ipcc.ch/index.html
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
Global Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions based on data of
Marland and Boden (DOE, Oak Ridge) and
British Petroleum.
Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 98, 14778, 2001.
Global Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne
or are soaked up by the ocean and land.
Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.
Primary Energy sources
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook, 2006
Keeling curve
http://asymptotia.com/wpimages/2009/01/700pxmauna_loa_carbon_dioxide.png
http://co2now.org/
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
Virgin Earth Challenge
http://www.virginearth.com/
Carbon Capture and Storage
Why And How?
Contributions from
Klaus S. Lackner
Columbia University
Earth Institute
School of Engineering & Applied Sciences
Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth
Primary Energy Consumption
(kW/person)
100
Norway
10
Russia
UK
China
1
India
USA
France
Brazil
$0.38/kWh
(primary)
0.1
0.01
100
1000
10000
GDP ($/person/year)
100000
EIA Data 2002
Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth
EIA Data 2002
IPCC Model Simulations of CO2 Emissions
Energy Will Not Run Out
H.H. Rogner, 1997
Fossil Fuel Resources
Source: BP, Stat. Review 2005
bnboe = billion barrels of oil equivalent
USA Total Oil Consumption: 7.5 billion barrels per year
U.S. Coal Facts
• currently world’s 2nd largest
producer and consumer
• 50% of U.S. electricity
generation
• total consumption projected
to increase ~30% by 2030
Coal Facts
 fastest growing energy source in the world
 plentiful and inexpensive compared to oil and natural gas
 10 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions per year (global CO2
emissions are 25 billion metric tons per year)
 USA: 154 new 500 megawatt, coal-fired electricity plants
between 2005 and 2030
 China: Construction of the equivalent of one large coal-fired
power plant per week
U.S. Coal Regions
Source: USGS, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1996/of96-092/index.htm
U.S. Electric Power Generation
Cumulative CO2 Emissions
 Lifetime fossil fuel emissions from existing
and planned power plants by 2030 will be
comparable to the sum of all emission from
the past 252 years
5
4
3
2
180ppm
increase in
the air
The
Mismatch
in Carbon
Sources
and Sinks
1
50%
increase
in
biomass
30% of
the Ocean
30%
increase in acidified
Soil Carbon
1800
2000
Fossil Carbon
Consumption to date
Carbon as a Low-Cost Source of Energy
US1990$ per barrel of oil equivalent
Lifting Cost
Cumulative
Carbon
Consumption
as of1997
Cumulative Gt of Carbon Consumed
H.H. Rogner, 1997
Fossil fuels are fungible
Coal
Shale
Tar
Oil
Natural
Gas
Carbon
Refining
Synthesis
Gas
Diesel
Jet Fuel
Ethanol
Methanol
DME
Hydrogen
Heat
Electricity
The Challenge:
Holding the Stock of CO2 constant
Extension of
Historic Growth
Rates
Constant emissions
at 2010 rate
560 ppm
33% of 2010 rate
10% of 2010 rate
0% of 2010 rate
280 ppm
What do we know?
• Demand for energy services will grow
– Increased demand can be accommodated
• Environmental constraints will tighten
– Bigger output, less tolerance for pollution
– Climate change threat
• Cost of carbon dioxide emissions will rise
– Very difficult to saturate demand for CO2 emission
reductions
What do we not know?
• Price of carbon
– Form of regulation is highly uncertain
– Time line is difficult to estimate
• could be very fast
• Tipping point has been reached
• Price of oil and gas
– Are we at Hubbert’s Peak?
– Gas could last much longer than thought
• Deep sources, hydrates
• Technology Advances
M. King Hubbert's original
1956 prediction of world
petroleum production rates
– Fuel cells, Carbon Capture and Storage, Nuclear
• Ultimate Efficiency and Energy Intensity
– Surprises could go both ways
Options
•
•
•
•
•
Greater efficiency / Reduction in consumption
Change fuel mix
Substitute renewables for fossil fuels
Nuclear
Carbon capture and storage
Introduction of Carbon Free Sources
• Renewable Energy
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Hydro Electricity
Tides and Waves
Wind
Geothermal
Biomass
Waste Energy
Solar Energy
• Nuclear Energy
– Fission
– Fusion
Driven by Fossil Fuel Prices
and
Carbon Price
Stabilization Wedges - A Concept and Game
"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next
50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow,
Science, August 13, 2004.
Historical Emissions
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
8
Historical
emissions
0
1950
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Stabilization
Triangle
8
Historical
emissions
Interim Goal
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Easier CO2 target
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
~850 ppm
Stabilization
Triangle
8
Historical
emissions
Interim Goal
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
8
Historical
emissions
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
2000
2050
2100
What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows
in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already
been commercialized at scale somewhere.
1 GtC/yr
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
50 years
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation (4)
16 GtC/y
Fuel Switching
(1)
CO2 Capture
& Storage (3)
Renewable Fuels
& Electricity (4)
Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle
8 GtC/y
2007
2057
Nuclear Fission (1)
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Forest and Soil Storage
(2)
Efficiency -> E, T, H / $
1. Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion
cars from 30 to 60 mpg.
2. Decrease the number of car miles
traveled by half.
E, T, H / $
Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T = Transport
H = Heat
3. Use best efficiency practices in all
residential and commercial buildings.
4. Produce current coal-based
electricity with twice today's
efficiency.
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Fuel Switching -> E, H / $
 Substitute 1400 natural gas
electric plants for an equal
number of coal-fired facilities.
 Requires an amount of natural
gas equal to that used for all
purposes today.
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) -> E, T, H / $$
Implement CCS:
• 800 GW coal electric
plants or
• 1600 GW natural gas
electric plants or
• 180 coal synfuels plants
or
• 10 times today’s capacity
of hydrogen plants
Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey
 There are currently three CCS projects that inject 1 million tons of
CO2 per year.
 We need 3500 CCS projects by 2055.
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Nuclear Electricity -> E / $$
 Triple the world’s nuclear
electricity capacity by 2055
 The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is
equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975 –
1990.
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Wind Electricity -> E, T, H / $-$$
 Install 1 million 2 MW
windmills to replace coal-based
electricity
 Use 2 million windmills to
produce hydrogen fuel
 A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing
current capacity by a factor of 30.
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Solar Electricity -> E, T, H / $-$$
 Install 20,000 square
kilometers for dedicated
use by 2054
Courtesey: www. nunetherlands.wordpress.com
 One wedge of solar electricity would mean a 700 times
increase in current capacity
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Biofuels -> T, H / $$
 Scale up current global
ethanol production by 30
times
 Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area
the size of India with biofuel crops.
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Carbon Capture and Storage
• Capture at the plant
• Capture from the air
• Long term disposal
Driven solely by carbon price
Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie
900 Gt C
total
Past
10yr
550 ppm
Removing the Carbon Constraint
5000 Gt C
total
Past
Options exist
• Triad of large options
• Myriad small contributors
How does one create the right incentives?
A Triad of Large Scale Options
• Solar
– Cost reduction and mass-manufacture
• Nuclear
– Cost, waste, safety and security
• Fossil Energy
– Zero emission, carbon storage and
interconvertibility
Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy
Small Energy Resources
• Biomass
– Sun and land limited
• Wind
– Stopping the air over Colorado every day?
• Geothermal
– Geographically limited
• Tides, Waves & Ocean Currents
– Less than human power generation
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
Capture from power
plants, cement, steel,
refineries, etc.
CO2 from
distributed
emissions
Capture from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
Geological Storage
Mineral carbonate disposal
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
CO2
extraction
from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
Lake Michigan
21st century carbon
dioxide emissions
could exceed the mass
of water in Lake
Michigan
Storage Life Time
Slow Leak (0.04%/yr)
2 Gt/yr for 2500 years
Storage
5000 Gt of C
200 years at 4 times current rates of emission
Current Emissions: 6Gt/year
Underground Injection
statoil
Underground Injection
US Geologic Storage Capacity
 Assumption: only 1 – 4% of geologic capacity can be used for
CO2 storage.
 total estimated geological CO2 storage: 3,600 – 12,900 billion
tons of CO2.
 To put that in perspective, the United States’ current annual
CO2 emissions are about ~ 7 billion tons per year.
Risk of Leakage
Source: www.westcarb.org
Killer Lake
In 1986, an explosion of CO2 from Lake Nyos,
West of Cameroon, killed more than 1700
people and livestock up to 25 km away. Two
lakes still contain large amounts of CO2 (10 and
300 millions m3 in Monoun and Nyos,
respectively)
Gravitational Trapping
Subocean Floor Disposal
With Buoyancy Cap
Locations for injections
Energy States of Carbon
The ground state of
carbon is a mineral
carbonate
Carbon
400 kJ/mole
Carbon Dioxide
60...180 kJ/mole
Carbonate
Rockville Quarry
Mg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g)  3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l)
+63kJ/mol CO2
IPCC, 2005: Carbon Capture and Storage Special Report
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
CO2
extraction
from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
Zero Emission
Principle
CO2
H2O
SOx, NOx and
other
Pollutants
Air
Carbon
N2
Power Plant
Solid Waste
Many Different Options
• Oxyfuel Combustion (ready for sequestration)
– Naturally zero emission
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
– Difficult as zero emission
• AZEP Cycles (Advanced Zero Emission Plants)
– Mixed Oxide Membranes
• Fuel Cell Cycles
– Solid Oxide Membranes
Hydrogenation
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
CO2
extraction
from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
Relative size of a tank
gasoline
hydrogen
Electrical,
mechanical storage
Batteries etc.
Ca(OH)2 as an absorbent
Air Flow
CO2 diffusion
Ca(OH)2 Calcium hydroxide solution
CaCO3 precipitate
CO2 mass transfer is limited by diffusion in air boundary layer
1 m3of Air
40 moles of gas, 1.16 kg
wind speed 6 m/s
mv 2
 20 J
2
CO2
0.015 moles of CO2
produced by 10,000 J of
gasoline
Volumes are drawn to scale
Air Extraction can
compensate for CO2
emissions anywhere
2NaOH + CO2  Na2CO3
Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal
60m by 50m
3kg of CO2 per second
90,000 tons per year
4,000 people or
15,000 cars
Would feed EOR
(Enhanced Oil Recovery)
for 800 barrels a day.
250,000 units for
worldwide CO2 emissions
How much wind?
(6m/sec)
Wind area that
carries 10 kW
0.2 m 2
for CO2
Wind area that
carries 22 tons
of CO2 per year
50 cents/ton of CO2
for contacting
80 m 2
for Wind Energy
Hydrogen or Air Extraction?
Coal,Gas
Fossil Fuel
Hydrogen
Oil
Gasoline
Distribution
Distribution
Consumption
Consumption
CO2 Transport
Air Extraction
CO2 Disposal
Take Home Messages
• IPCC: certainty about connection between human
activity, increased greenhouse gases and global
warming is increasing
• Carbon Management: There are technical options to
influence the atmospheric CO2 concentration
– Sequestration schemes
– CO2 Extraction from atmosphere
• Hydrogen or Carbon based energy cycles?
• Virgin Earth Challenge: incentive for invention that leads to
action
• Real hurdles not in science and engineering but in policy