NORTH DAKOTA UNIVERSITY SYSTEM
SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
PRESENTED
STATE BOARD
OF
TO THE
HIGHER EDUCATION
MAY 29, 2014
Dan Paulien
President
Paulien & Associates,
Inc.
(303) 832-3272
dpaulien@paulien.com
Peter Scanlon
Frank Markley
Principal
Paulien & Associates, Inc.
(303) 832-3272
fmarkley@paulien.com
Vice President, Professional Services
VFA, Inc.
(617) 772-8196
pscanlon@vfa.com
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
Section 1
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Figure 1
North Dakota Population Projections
Year
2025 projection
2020 projection
2015 Projection
2010 Census
2000 Census
1990 Census
1980 Census
1970 Census
1960 Census
State
Population
841,820
806,541
Yearly
Change %
• 1960 to 2010: Statewide
resident population increased by
6.3%
4.4%
750,023
672,591
7.5%
11.5%
642,200
638,800
652,717
617,761
632,446
4.7%
0.5%
-2.1%
5.7%
-2.3%
Source: U.S. Census and the Center for Social
Research at NDSU.
• 2010 to 2025: Statewide
resident population is expected
to increase by 25% (four times)
the 50-year rate due to the
impact of energy-related
employment
• U.S. Census counts permanent
residents. If temporary workers
who claim residency in other
states are factored into the
equation, the population
projections would be higher.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
4
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• Regions 2, 7, 8:
Double-digit
percentage
increases in
population
between 2000
and 2013
• Regions 1, 5:
Greatest
percentage of
population
increases
between 2000
and 2013
North Dakota Population by Planning Region
Planning Region
Planning Region 1,
Planning Region 2,
Planning Region 3,
Planning Region 4,
Planning Region 5,
Planning Region 6,
Planning Region 7,
Planning Region 8,
Total
Census
2000
Census Estimate % Change Projection % Change
2000-2013
2013-2025
2010
2013
2025
30,829
41,223
48.4%
83,874
103.5%
89,967
99,389
12.8%
125,002
25.8%
40,672
41,630
-3.6%
43,016
3.3%
88,519
90,559
-0.3%
95,125
5.0%
185,481 198,779
22.6%
218,799
10.1%
56,363
56,292
-8.4%
58,222
3.4%
141,864 151,455
16.1%
169,993
12.2%
38,896
44,066
14.9%
57,405
30.3%
27,781
88,089
43,168
90,798
162,127
61,454
130,418
38,365
642,200 672,591
723,393
Source:2000, 2010, and 2013 population data from the U.S. Census Bureau
851,436
Planning Regions 1, 2 and 8 population projections from NDSU Agribusiness and Applied Economics
Planning Regions 3 -7 population projections from the U.S. Census and the Center for Social
Research at NDSU.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
• Regions 1, 2, 8:
Will experience
disproportionate share of
the population growth by
2025
Moderate population
growth in Regions 5 and 7
by 2025, as these areas
include two of the larger
urban areas
5
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Percent Population Change by County: 2010-2013
20% to 47%
10% to 20%
5% to 10%
0% to 5%
-5% to 0%
The major population changes have occurred and will continue in the western
part of the state (Williams, Mountrail, and McKenzie Counties).
The balance of the state is projected to have modest growth. Population
growth is proportional to projections for oil field development in the
petroleum industry and future employment in the Williston Basin.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
6
REGION OF ORIGIN-FIRST TIME STUDENTS
Higher Education Attendance
Region of Origin of First-Time Students Directly Out of High School
Academic Years 2011-2013
Region
Bakken
Bismarck
Fargo
Grand Forks
Other
Total
2-year
465
1,091
256
69
1,854
3,735
4-year
Research
342
289
47
483
86
1,193
35
694
1,136
1,588
1,646
4,247
Total
% of Total
1,096
11%
1,621
17%
1,535
16%
798
8%
4,578
48%
9,628
100%
Source: NDUS Student Unit Data
• Students from the Bakken and Bismarck regions are more inclined to start their
higher education experience at a 2-year college, while students from Fargo and
Grand Forks are more likely to attend one of the research universities.
• Student from the “Other” region attended 2-year colleges slightly more than
the research universities.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
7
REGION OF ORIGIN – FIRST TIME STUDENTS
Higher Education Attendance by Region - Directly Out of High School
Region
Bakken
Bismarck
Fargo
Grand Forks
Other
North
North
Lake
Williston
Dakota University Valley
Dakota
Minot
Mayville
Bismarck Dakota Dickinson Region
State
of North City State
State
State College of
State
State
State
State College at
Dakota University College
College Bottineau University University University University Science University
182
16.6%
1,025
63.2%
19
2.4%
5
0.6%
673
14.7%
10
0.9%
5
0.3%
5
0.6%
2
0.3%
183
4.0%
254
23.2%
18
1.1%
3
0.4%
1
0.1%
48
1.0%
2
0.2%
7
0.4%
6
0.8%
38
4.8%
324
7.1%
8
0.7%
2
0.1%
21
2.6%
27
3.4%
155
3.4%
68
6.2%
19
1.2%
4
0.5%
4
0.5%
678
14.8%
59
5.4%
51
3.1%
223
27.9%
24
3.0%
659
14.4%
156
14.2%
298
18.4%
915
59.6%
90
11.3%
877
19.2%
133
12.1%
185
11.4%
278
34.8%
604
75.7%
711
15.5%
12
1.1%
8
0.5%
58
7.3%
3
0.4%
255
5.6%
212
19.3%
3
0.2%
3
0.4%
0
0.0%
15
0.3%
Source: NDUS Student Unit Data
• In general, college attendance patterns are determined largely by the nature of
the institution(s) located within the region.
• This pattern is true for recent high school graduates and is even more
pronounced for part-time and adult students.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
8
PARTICIPATION RATES
North Dakota Higher Education Participation by Institution Type: 2003-2013
Institution Type
2003
Research Universities Headcount
24,657
Research Universities Participation Rate
3.9%
Regional Universities Headcount
Regional Universities Participation Rate
Two-Year Community Colleges Headcount
Two-Year Community Colleges Participation Rate
Total Headcount
2010
Census
28,601
2011
2012
2013
% Change
2003-2013
29,096
29,693
29,772
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
8,101
8,618
8,357
7,779
7,413
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
10,718
11,380
1.6%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
47,937
48,833
48,203
48,015
15.4%
14.6%
8,862
1.4%
41,620
10,731 10,830
State Population
631,225
672,591 684,867
701,345 723,393
Statewide Participation Rate
6.6%
7.1%
6.9%
7.1%
20.7%
-8.5%
22.2%
6.6%
Sources U.S. Census Bureau and NDSU Enrollment Reports from 2012 and 2013.
• Participation rates for the research universities have increased from 3.9% to 4.1% over
the 10-year period. Community colleges have also increased participation rates, but at a
slower rate of 1.4% in 2003 to a high of 1.7% in 2011. The regional universities
participation rate has remained flat and recently declined to 1.0%
• The 6.6% statewide participation rate is identical for 2003 and 2013, but spiked between
2009 and 2011
• For comparison, the 2012 statewide participation rate in Minnesota using Minnesota State
Colleges and University (MnSCU) System enrollments and state population data was 8.0%
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
9
DEMOGRAPHICS SUMMARY
North Dakota Higher Education Enrollment Projection 2015-2025
State Population
Total NDUS Headcount
Statewide Participation Rate
% Change
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2020
2025
Census Estimate Estimate Estimate Projection Projection Projection 2010-2025
672,591 684,867 701,345 723,393 750,023 806,541 841,820
25.2%
26.4%
47,937 48,883
48,203
48,015
50,252
54,845
60,611
7.1%
7.1%
6.9%
6.6%
6.7%
6.8%
7.2%
Sources U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Social Research at NDSU, and NDSU Enrollment Reports from 2012 and 2013.
Using participation
rate analysis, by 2025
it is estimated that
NDUS institutions
could enroll more than
60,000 students, an
increase of 26%
Source: WICHE
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
10
Section 2
WORKFORCE/PROGRAM
ALIGNMENT
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
11
WORKFORCE ALIGNMENT STRATEGY
Workforce Alignment was analyzed from three different
perspectives:
1) The 2012-2020 Workforce projections developed by the Georgetown
Center for Education and the Workforce (Demand-side Projections)
2) Entry-level education level and wages by education classification produced
by the North Dakota Labor Market Information Center
3) Analysis of Burning Glass data (Demand and Supply Side Analysis)
• Outcomes generally pointed in the same direction but differences in data
collection processes and projection methodologies produced discrepancies
• Occupational projections extend through 2020. Less predictable economic
circumstances make these forecasts less reliable over time.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
12
WORKFORCE ALIGNMENT
•
The Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce notes statewide job
openings requiring 41,000 Bachelor’s degrees and 22,000 Associate degrees.
•
If one presumes that, in addition to jobs requiring an associate’s degree, that many of
the jobs in the Some College No Degree category (40,000) will require individuals to
have certifications of some kind, the gap between baccalaureate and subbaccalaureate level diminishes considerably.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
13
WORKFORCE ALIGNMENT – BURNING GLASS
STATEWIDE: BACCALAUREATE AND ABOVE
Supply and demand are in general equilibrium at the
baccalaureate and above level. One area of slight under-supply
is Computer and IT Professionals, but there is no evidence of
lack of capacity at the four-year institutions.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
14
WORKFORCE ALIGNMENT – BURNING GLASS
STATEWIDE: SUB-BACCALAUREATE
At the sub-baccalaureate level, the findings indicate a substantial
unfilled demand for Maintenance, Repair & Installation workers
and for Nursing occupations. There is also a smaller unfilled
demand for Finance positions and lower-wage Clerical and
Support workers in the healthcare industry.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
15
WORKFORCE ALIGNMENT – BURNING GLASS
BAKKEN REGION: BACCALAUREATE AND ABOVE
Overall, there is under-supply in both baccalaureate and subbaccalaureate career fields in the Bakken Region. The
greatest need at the baccalaureate and above level is in the
Allied Health, Computer & IT, Nursing, and Management
career areas.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
16
WORKFORCE ALIGNMENT – BURNING GLASS
BAKKEN REGION: SUB-BACCALAUREATE
Overall, there is under-supply in both baccalaureate and subbaccalaureate career fields in the Bakken Region. The
greatest need at the sub-baccalaureate level is in the
Maintenance, Repair & Installation career area where the
needs in this region are driving the statewide need.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
17
WORKFORCE WAGES BY EDUCATION LEVEL
Source: Labor Market Information Center – Job Service of North Dakota
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
18
Section 3
FACILITY CONDITION
ASSESSMENT
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
19
1. REVIEW CAPITAL PROJECTS IDENTIFIED BY EACH NDUS
SCHOOL
ARE SCHOOLS NOMINATING PROJECTS THAT ARE NEEDED AND
ARE THEIR COST ESTIMATES CREDIBLE?
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
20
1. REVIEW CAPITAL PROJECTS IDENTIFIED BY EACH NDUS
SCHOOL
ARE SCHOOLS NOMINATING PROJECTS THAT ARE NEEDED AND
ARE THEIR COST ESTIMATES CREDIBLE?
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
21
2. REVIEW HEATING PLANTS’ CONDITION
WHICH PLANTS ARE MOST IN NEED OF URGENT REPAIR?
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
22
2. REVIEW HEATING PLANTS’ CONDITION
WHICH PLANTS’ NEEDS ARE MOST URGENT?
Replace-in-Kind
Renewal Estimate*
Heating Plant Needs
Immediate Needs
Subtotal
$ 21,345,000
Two schools have plants that experienced failures during the
2013-’14 winter and have immediate renewal needs:
VCSU
NDSU
12,426,000
8,919,000
Within 2 Years
6,252,000
Two schools have plants in need of major renewals within 2
years:
UND
WSC
6,037,000
215,000
Within 3-4 Years
12,436,000
Five schools have plants in need of renewals within 3-4 years:
NDSCS
DSU
MiSU
BSC
DCB
7,250,000
2,661,000
995,000
991,000
545,000
Good Condition
7,000
Two schools have plants currently in good operating condition:
MaSU
LRSC
TOTAL FOR ALL HEATING PLANTS
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
7,000
0
$ 40,040,000
23
3. ASSESS THE CONDITION OF SAMPLE BUILDINGS
System Lifecycle Assessment
• Visual + interviews
• “Replace-in-kind”
for existing use
• Costs from R.S. Means,
adjusted for local markets
• No upgrades for program,
use, capacity or hazmat, etc.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
24
3. ASSESS THE
CONDITION OF
SAMPLE BUILDINGS
WHICH SAMPLE
BUILDINGS ARE IN
BAD CONDITION?
(SAMPLE BUILDINGS
SHOWN, RANKED WORST
TO BEST FCI)
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
25
3. ASSESS THE
CONDITION OF
SAMPLE BUILDINGS
WHICH SAMPLE
BUILDINGS NEED
THE MOST $$?
(SAMPLE BUILDINGS
SHOWN, RANKED MOST
TO LEAST $$ NEEDED)
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
26
3. ASSESS THE CONDITION OF SAMPLE BUILDINGS
WHAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR
NDUS?
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
27
3. ASSESS THE CONDITION OF SAMPLE BUILDINGS
WHAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR
NDUS?
• 41 Buildings sampled
(24% of Appropriated GSF)
• Def’d Maint:
“Fair”
Weighted:
$86/SF
$78/SF
• Def’d Maint. for
9.7M GSF:
$756M
• Heating Plants: $40M
• Site (NDSCS only):
$12M
• TOTAL:
$808M
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
28
3. ASSESS THE CONDITION OF SAMPLE BUILDINGS
WHAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR
NDUS?
Starting DM
Backlog
Biennial
Funding
6 YR Funding
Ending DM
Backlog
Maintain “Fair”
$808M
$266M
$798M
$808M
~2% of CRV
$808M
$100M
$300M
$1,512M
Target “Better”
$808M
$448M
$1,345M
$404M
Continue Current
$808M
$40M
$120M
$1,720M
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
29
3. ASSESS THE CONDITION OF SAMPLE BUILDINGS
WHAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR
NDUS?
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
30
Section 4
DEFERRED MAINTENANCE & CAPITAL
PROJECTS APPROVAL PROCESS
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
DEFERRED MAINTENANCE & CAPITAL
PROJECTS - KEY FINDINGS
• Modify the formula for the extraordinary repairs
budget
• Improve reporting on deferred maintenance
liability
• Documentation and central repository
• Assess the balance of the NDUS Type I/Type II facilities
• Remove the limit on projects that can be
submitted by each institution in a given
biennium
• Establish transparent prioritization and approval
criteria for maintenance & capital projects
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
32
DEFERRED MAINTENANCE & CAPITAL
PROJECTS – RECOMMENDATIONS
• Provide central resources for project
development and estimating
• Streamline consent agenda submittals for
approval
• Establish and communicate overall objectives
and priorities
• Evaluate all submitted projects on merits
according to prioritization criteria
• Reduce length of time between project submittal
and approval
• Increase the dollar levels for which a project
requires State oversight
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
33
Section 5
REVIEW OF
INDIVIDUAL MASTER PLANS
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
34
STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
• Develop System strategic goals
– Engage in inclusive strategic planning process
– Develop comprehensive evaluation of higher
education needs in the state
– Identify vision for the future (5-10 years) and design
strategies/policies to effectively achieve them
• Involve NDUS in determining most effective
strategic alliances between institutions
• Add narrative section discussing planning
process
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
35
IDENTIFY SPACE NEEDS
Given the value of the physical space assets and the fiduciary
responsibility to maintain them, investment in space management tools
and resources is merited, especially if one considers the cost of
constructing new buildings. For these fiscal reasons, space inventory
and management is an industry best practice.
• Facilitate development of an accurate space and
classroom inventory
• Require that plans include a space utilization study or
analysis
• Require that plans include a space needs analysis with a
projection of space needs and clearly communicate the
major drivers of facility needs (e.g., enrollment,
pedagogy, deferred maintenance, housing)
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
36
REVISE MASTER PLANNING PROCESS
• Align master planning with long-range strategic planning
horizons of 5-10 years ( 6 years with biennial cycle)
• Separate master planning from capital planning
– Perform capital planning on an annual or biennial cycle
• Within the biennial for capital planning, allow for annual
updates due to inflation, program changes, market
conditions and/or other factors
– Allow for an expedited process for campus self-funded projects
(e.g., funded from gifts, grants, auxiliaries, etc.)
• Separate capital program-driven projects from
maintenance-driven projects and develop a separate
prioritization process at the system level for each
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
37
DESIGN / CONSTRUCTION STANDARDS
• Promote development of campus and system
level standards for construction materials, and
include volume discount strategies.
• Consider best practices for sustainable design
and budget accordingly, especially where best
practices save energy and other future operating
expenditures.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
38
STANDARDS AND METRICS
• University System Office is in a unique position
to ensure consistency of software systems and
protocols, but central funding sources may be
needed.
– Many campuses had some level of implementation of the FAMIS work
order system, but did not have the resources to either purchase the
space and capital projects modules, implement the software migration,
and/or populate and maintain the databases
– Inconsistencies about how the classroom Scheduling software, Ad Astra,
was implemented and that database maintained and updated were
found
– Significant investments had been made at the System level regarding IT
systems and data center resources, but these were not fully utilized
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
39
Section 6
CAPITAL REQUEST EVALUATIONS
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
40
MACRO-LEVEL ANALYSIS APPROACH
•
Macro-level analytic takes a dozen or so major space types typical on a given campus
within the educational and general space normally funded by the State and gives the
campus a per student target number based on experience from other institutions
–
•
Results in a need or surplus analysis at current and agreed-to target years for each major
space type and an overall figure for each campus
–
–
•
Can be analyzed both as total square footage and as percentage of need
Helpful tool in determining whether a specific institution shows needs based on these metrics in the
categories for which they are requesting space
Data Issues: Facilities room inventory data was not available at most of the institutions.
–
•
Type of institution and unique system objectives, such as classroom and laboratory utilization
targets, that may be set are also taken into consideration
For such a process to be implemented, all institutions would need to develop room-by-room
facilities inventories
Calculations made of existing space per student for each of the categories would be
compared with a square foot per student number that the consultant recommends for that
institution and that category
–
Based on the consultant’s knowledge of what similar institutions are doing, an understanding the
specific role and mission of the North Dakota institutions, and providing institution-specific findings
within the broad categories of two-year, four-year, and research university institutions
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
41
CAPITAL REQUEST EVALUATIONS
• Implement a space inventory database
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
42
CAMPUS SPACE SUMMARIES
• Facilities information across the System was provided in gross square
feet by building
°
°
°
Type I – Direct Academic Space
Type II – Other State Supported Space
Type III – Auxiliary Space
• Total of Types I and II is most applicable for this kind of analysis
• This analysis is usually done in assignable square feet (ASF), so the
consultant used 65% of the GSF to approximate the ASF, which is
the percentage recommended by the NDUS project manager
• NDUS is urged to look to whether additional reporting tables should
be developed to more accurately reflect the onsite instruction
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
43
CAMPUS SPACE SUMMARIES
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
44
Section 7
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
ISSUES
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
45
R&D ISSUES
• Both NDSU and UND:
– Show rates of increased research activities that
exceed peers
– Have approximately one-half the faculty of their peers
• UND has relatively low research revenue in
comparison to benchmark universities
• NDSU has relatively high research revenue in
comparison to their benchmarked universities,
but over half of their research volume is in
Agriculture
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
46
Section 8
CONCLUSIONS
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
47
KEY FINDINGS
• Strong population growth will result in student
growth for NDUS
• Workforce needs will be strongest in the Bakken
area. Fargo area has second strongest needs.
• Deferred maintenance needs are significant.
• Heating plants need investment at most
campuses.
• Master plans do not have a needs component.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
48
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
• Substantially increase funding for deferred
maintenance, including heating plants.
• Develop a long-range plan to provide ongoing funding
for deferred maintenance.
• Develop a campus facilities inventory (room level) at
each campus.
• Conduct classroom utilization analysis at each campus.
• Tie strategic objectives, utilization, and needs
measures to campus master planning.
• Develop ranking criteria for deferred maintenance and
capital projects.
NDUS SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
49
NORTH DAKOTA UNIVERSITY SYSTEM
SYSTEMWIDE MASTER PLAN
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS/RECOMMENDATIONS
Presented to the
State Board of Higher Education
Thank you for your time and attention.
Are there any questions you would like to ask?