CLIMATE CHANGE
and its EFFECTS on human behavior
and HEALTH
Can we actually determine whether the
climate is changing because of us and we are
suffering the consequences?
• Jim Lovelock’s theory;
• The human influence on the
climate;
• John Tyndall’s researches;
• Melting ice caps;
• Impacts on water availability.
Chris Rapley answers this key
question:
NO science has never completely
solved this dilemma!
However, all of the scientific world has
almost reached a consensus that our
climate system is CHANGING and
human activities are the DOMINANT
DRIVING FORCE!
Has the climate changed before?
Yes, on long time scales for many reasons. One of
these is because the energy output of the Sun varies. The
solar luminosity has increased by about 30% for four
billions and five hundred thousand years of life on the
planet.
In addition the very biosphere growth has altered the
chemical composition of the atmosphere.
Jim Lovelock has a theory on terrestrial
biology:
The amount of heat captured by the gas keeps the
surface of the planet much warmer than it should
be.
Changes in the content of the atmosphere have
had a major impact on global temperatures.
Also the slow drift of the continents changes the
way in which the heat is absorbed and reflected by
the surface of the planet. We know that, in recent
geological history, changes in the tilt of the Earth's
precession and the change in the shape of Earth's
orbit have caused cycles of ice ages and
interglacials.
Are the present circumstances unusual?
In 2011 the world's population has exceeded seven
billion people. We know that the human impact on
the planet has immediate consequences and reduces
the efficiency with which we use resources and
energy.
Paul Clutzen, described the
current era as the Anthropocene,
because future generations will be
characterized by the influence of
humans on the planet as
dominant. We have transformed
nearly 50% of the Earth's surface,
and the effects on habitat, species,
and on the nitrogen cycle of the
use of fertilizers are dramatic.
Our greatest impact, however, has been the combustion of half a
trillion tons of carbon of fossil fuels to power the wealth and prosperity
of the modern world and, in doing so, we have inadvertently increased
the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This amount
corresponds precisely to that responsible for the natural passage
between glacial periods and interglacial period, when global
temperatures vary by approximately 5° C.
But this has occurred in only 100 years!
John Tyndall, with his research, has
found that nitrogen and oxygen, that
compose the 98% of the atmosphere,
are transparent to heat. The remaining
2% of atmospheric gases (e.g. (carbon
dioxide, water vapour) prevent radiant
heat to go directly into space. Without
atmosphere, the Earth's surface would
be 30° C colder and the surface of the
planet would be icy.
How does the ocean affect the
climate change?
The ocean covers 70% of Earth's surface and
it is darker than earth.
It absorbs about 90% of the thermal
imbalance due to the greenhouse effect.
Melting ice caps
In the cryosphere, the water is
frozen, however there has been
an acceleration of its melting
and therefore the water flows
back into the ocean, raising sea
level.
Does it matter?
The planet waters must redistribute the
heat from warmer areas to colder areas,
creating winds that carry water vapor
around the planet.
We have used this to our benefit: for
instance for our water supply, our food
supply, our transportation systems, etc.
A massive climate change has had a big
impact on water availability.
Nick Stern noted that the climate has been
changing and that the interaction between
climate change and human beings is
mediated through the water:
- an extreme lack of water causes
drought
- an excess of water causes floods.
Both are indicative of climate change.
How long should we wait while the
statistics becomes more and more
alarming, before we act prudently?
What can we do?
We should limit the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, in order to avoid
climate change which is deemed dangerous for
mankind and we should do more than what we are
doing now.
Allegedly, the present change is ten times bigger
than the one that took place between the last ice
age and the current interglacial period, and it has
caused an increment in temperatures of more than
2° C, which is the safe threshold.
Only blind optimism can believe that humanity
might just adapt.
This is the time to make a change in human affairs,
to strengthen our responsibilities and ensure
effective and concrete action.
Climate change and
human health
•Effects of the climate changes on the
health;
• Prediction for the future;
• Africa’s weakness.
It is not easy to associate climate changes to possible effects
on health, because human beings are exposed to many
environmental factors that affect them in positive and
negative ways.
In the most developed countries, humans have adapted to
live in different places and climates. The knowledge of
treatment and management of diseases is better and this fact
complicates even more the ability to predict the
consequences of global warming.
Effects of the climate
changes on the health
Effects of heat and heat waves on health;
More deaths and illnesses caused by extreme weather events;
Earlier pollen season in the northern hemisphere;
More deaths and diseases caused by air pollutants;
Changes in the spatial distribution, in the intensity and
seasonality of the epidemics of diseases and vector-borne
diseases;
Increase of food-borne diseases and toxins produced by
the increase in the supply of algae;
Worsening of malnutrition of the population in developing
countries because of the drought and the decrease in
agricultural crops;
More vulnerability of people living in low coastal areas
due to the infiltration of salt water into sweet water
reserves, resulting in floods and consequent movements of
the population;
More vulnerability of the community who live in the Artic
due to changes of diet related to the migration and
distribution of animals.
Predictions for the future of
the Europe’s conditions
* In Europe we will experience a greater warming in
northern regions in winter, and an increase in the
annual average of rainfall in the centre and southern
summer.
* In the southern areas periods of drought will become
more frequent and the climatic conditions will be
hotter.
What can we do?
*The answer to counter the effects of climate changes is adaptation:
we should implement warning systems to predict in advance the
arrival of a hazard to public health and prevention programs
targeted at groups at risk.
*However some of the adaptation actions,
if carried out for long time, might increase
the energy and C O2 emissions.
*The optimal option for adaptation
to climate.
* change vary from region to region.
The most of the actions are to prepare for
disaster and improving health services.
Which will be the
continent most affected?
*As far as health is concerned, Africa is
the most vulnerable continent: an increase
in temperatures will decrease in
agricultural yields and will exacerbate
malnutrition of the population.
• The health impacts of heat
waves;
• Extreme weather events;
• The alteration of air quality;
• Yields food;
• The rates of bacterial growth;
• The range and activity of disease
vectors;
• The flow of water.
The immediate and direct risks include :
•the health impacts of heat waves,
•extreme weather events
•the alteration of air quality.
•The frequency of episodes of extreme heat will increase with the
increase in average temperatures, and the heat waves and
extreme weather events are also tending to become more
variable.
The indirect risks result from changes and disruptions of
ecological and biophysical systems, which affect:
• yields food;
• the rates of bacterial growth;
• the range and activity of disease vectors;
• the flow of water.
The increase in temperatures reduces the solubility of gases in water:
the oxygen concentration drops of 10% of saturation with an increase
of 3 degrees.
Yields food
Much attention has been paid to the influence of climate on
yields of food in relation to export earnings, livelihoods,
health of the community but the ultimate effect of a
decrease in the production of food is hunger, malnutrition,
vulnerable children, susceptibility to infection, decrease in
health and strength of adults and premature death. In
addition, the climate can bring about potentially disastrous
effects for the poor, in terms of food prices.
•
Agriculture and nutrition contribute by 10-12% to
the global greenhouse gas emissions, with important
contributions from deforestation and other land
usage. Also, many of the emissions are attributed to
farm animals which emit methane.
The rates of bacterial growth and the range
and activity of disease vectors
The changing climate conditions will affect many infectious
diseases and the maturation and multiplication of pathogens.
An example is the increase in cases of campylobacteriosis, and
of salmonella infection as a result of the rise in temperature.
These risks can be offset in countries with sufficient resources
to treat these diseases, but this may not be true in other
countries.
The flow of water
• Surface erosion is the result of the transport of material brought
by heavy rains, which are expected to increase in frequency, in
temperate countries, with the progress of climate change.
• The contamination of water is becoming widespread and
increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and humidity
may extend.
Risks associated with conflicts
•The principal causes of
conflicts;
•Types of diseas wich are
sensitive to climatic
conditions;
• The consequences of not
facing the problems;
Climate and weather may also affect the risk of conflict, this is evident from
history. Disease, hunger, drought, loss of habitat, loss of natural resources, and
the economic cracks are the principal causes of conflicts.
Climate change thus acts as a force which amplifies the negative health effects
of other environmental stressors. Populations at high risk of diseases which
are very sensitive to climatic conditions: childhood diarrhea, malaria,
malnutrition and exposure to extreme heat in the workplace may increase, with
a detrimental impact on health even with relatively small changes in climate.
Not someone else problem!
The United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States of America are
facing many challenges such as the global economic crisis, so they tried to dismiss the
climate change issue and consider it as “someone else’s problem”.
However, events occurring miles away can have an impact on the interests and
security of our nations. A recent example is the negative repercussions on Europeans
and U.S. companies after the floods in Thailand. These floods have destroyed several
consumable goods, such as replacement batteries of cars or computer chips, thus
slowing down the production line. At the same time they have also suffered the loss
of rice crops.
The solutions
•Low carbon economy;
• Electricity production;
• Indoor air pollution;
•Potential health benefits of
mitigating actions.
Low carbon economy
Health has not been taken into account in
climate policies, there are many benefits to
health that are related to a low carbon
economy. This has often forgotten by
politicians.
The majority of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions
come from transports, electricity production, indoor air
pollution, agriculture and emissions from the production of
food.
Electricity production
Avoiding the combustion of coal to generate electricity will
reduce both carbon dioxide emissions and fine particulate
air pollution. A number of studies have estimated health
benefits from low carbon electricity production. In India
around 90000 premature deaths annually could be avoided
if coal combustion were reduced and new ways to generate
electricity were implemented.
Indoor air pollution
WHO estimates that in 2004 over half of the cases of
pneumonia in children were related to exposure to indoor
smoke from the combustion of biomass or coal in
inefficient cook stoves or open fires. Indoor air pollution
also causes chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases,
particularly in women.
The sudden changes between rain and drought period
have contributed to increase commodity prices,
threatening the nutrition of the world’s poorest
populations. At the same time the population of the rich
states continue to consume meat and dairy products
which can increase ischaemic heart diseases and strokes.
Potential health
benefits of mitigating
actions
Potential health benefits of mitigating actions
An increment in the use of public transport, bicycle or walking could increase
physical activity, reduce obesity and lead to better physical and mental
condition. In high-income countries, where the average daily consumption of
red meat in general is very high, a decrease in production and consumption of
meat could lead to health benefits with a reduced risk of cardiovascular
disease and cancer.
Resource security
•The armed forces’ roles;
• Our contributions;
• Humanitarian assistance;
Time for a strategic view
Time for a strategic view
To tackle climate change, nations should adopt a strategic approach. We
should not just focus on threats, but also identifying opportunities,
including that of economic growth.
The armed forces have a role to play in this process, both nationally and
internationally.
How can we contribute?
First, the armed forces can help in the development and understanding of the risks and
this will have an impact on global stability, and the interests of individual nations.
There is a need to improve our collective knowledge of how people react to the loss of
land and livelihoods. Realising the importance of these dangers, it is necessary to ensure
that they are included in the strategies of national security.
Humanitarian assistance in case of disasters
Second, the analysis of risks and impacts can be used to determine potential future
missions for the armed forces. An example is the provision of humanitarian assistance in
case of disasters, something that the military often have to do.
During the hurricane season, the ship of the Royal Navy operating in the Caribbean is
trained to perform this role and is often called upon to do so.
In the future, with the increased likelihood of extreme weather events, especially in the
Indian Ocean and South Asia, it might be necessary to have the same skills available in
all ships.
The choices made ​in the development of these resources must recognize the potential
impact on the environment and global security.
Contraction and Convergence
• Contraction and convergence’s
strategy;
• More solutions;
• What do we need to ensure the
projects?
Contraction and Convergence (C & C) is a
proposal of a global scheme for the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate
change. The strategy of contraction and
convergence was conceived by the Global
Commons Institute and points to the overall
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to a level
considered safe (contraction), obtained by making
the emissions of each country (convergence) at the
same level per capita. This strategy should form
the basis of an international agreement to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions.
• Another possible solution could be to produce
more energy from renewable sources, thus
reducing CO2 emissions.
• In 1991, for example, Germany introduced a
grant by which the government paid a sum
of money to produce energy from renewable
sources.
Any solution must reshape the global environment
and allow other projects to develop. To ensure that
these projects succeed we need:
• a constant effort to reduce CO2 emissions;
• a mechanism to transfer resources in the countries
where the use of fossil fuels is low;
• new developments that allow to make choices that
involve low emissions of carbon dioxide.
POLITICS AND POLICIES:
making change happen
Climate change is a global factor with
massive economic, legal, energy, and
financial implications, and it will be one of
the key determining factors of international
relations.
Commitments made in
the past in the world:
• 1972: first global conference of the UN at Stockholm is
held;
• 1972: the UNEP ( United Nations Environmental
Programme) is born: the program of the UN on
environmental problems aiming at coordinate and
promote the initiatives of the UN;
• 1988: the IPCC, a intergovernmental group of experts on
climate changes, is created;
• 1990: the first report of the IPCC which puts forward the
possibility that greenhouse gases, emitted by humans
activity, contribute to climate change, is published;
•
1992: at Rio de Janeiro the first
convention on climate change
(United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change,
UNFCCC) in which all heads of
state take parts is held.
1997: in Kyoto, 160 countries sign
an international treaty on global
warming.
2005: the Treaty of Kyoto becomes
effective.
2009: In Copenhagen the last
summit of UNFCCC takes place.
European political
position
•
- In 2008, the European Council approved the
cimate-energy package whose primary objectives
for 2020 are:
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, with
respect to 1990;
• Reach a share of 20% reusable energy
consumption of the European Union;
• Reduce by 20% the energy consumption,
compared to the projections for 2020.
Italian government
position
• 2002: the Ministry of Environment put forward the
national action plan to reduce emission of greenhouse
gases: Italy commits to reduce by 6,5% the greenhouse
gas emissions;
• 2008: EU lower Italy’s target of gas emission ( from
20% to 5,5% compared to 1990) and reusable energy
(from 20% to 17%);
• 2009: the Senate denis human responsibility for global
warming and replace actions to reduce greenhouses
gases with adaptive interventions. Moreover it aims at
reviewing the European agreement.
The geopolitical consequences of climate change are
real and imminent and they are an issue for Europe and
Europe's foreign services.
First, high level foreign policy forums need to engage with the
problem.
When the United Kingdom took the topic of climate change to
the United Nations Security Council in 2007 it met strong
opposition. Germany, also, had been explicit in its campaign for
a seat on the Security Council that climate change would be one
of the major topics for its time there, and reintroduced the topic
in July 2011.
The Security Council accepted a presidential statement that
climate change represents a threat to peace and security. The
topic was accepted by the Group of 77 nations (G-77).
Secondly, we need to find a balance between the interests of
industrialized countries and developing countries, between
exporters and importers of fossil fuels, technologically between
advanced and less advanced economies, and between vulnerable
and more robust regions.
The third suggestion is for dialogue with the public.
Politicians and Government representatives need to tell people that
climate change is a topic not only for scientists and experts but for
everybody.
People must be aware of the
problem so they can act to improve
the environment with a right
behavior.
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Health risks, present and future, from global
climate change BMJ2012;344:e1359 doi:
10.1136/bmj.e1359 (Published 19 March
2012);
2) A. Haines, C. Dora: How the low carbon
economy can improve health BMJ
2012;344:e1018 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e1018
(published 19 Marhch 2012);
3) R. Scott: Contraction and convergence: the
best possible solution to the twin problems of
climate change and inequity BMJ
2012;344:e1765 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e1765
(published 19 March 2012);
4) H. Thölken: Politics and policies: making
changes happen BMJ 2012;344:e1356 doi
10.1136/bmj.e1356 (published 19 March 2012);
5) C. Ralpey: The health impacts of climate
changes BMJ2012;344:e1026 doi:
10.1136/bmj.e1026 (published 19 March 2012);
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(6).