The Transportation Demand Forecasting
Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System
(TCModel 2011)
Teresa Chang, Planner
Sept. 5, 2012
Presentation Outline





Background of the Study Area
What Do We Want to Know?
Why Do We Update?
How Do We Update?
Introduction of TCModel 2011
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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Background— Study Area
Taichung
Taichung(29)
Changhua(19)
Changhua
Nantou
Nantou(2)
•Study Area – Taichung Urban
Countys: Taichung, Changhua, Nantou
Towns: 50
Area: 3,062.3 KM2
Population: 3.95million people
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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$
Background -Railway Master Plan
$
 Operations
$
 Taiwan Rail(gray)
 Taiwan High Speed Rail
$
$
$
(yellow)
$
Taichung
$
Construction
$
 TR-Red Line
(the project
completion year is 2015)
 MRT-Green Line
(the project
completion year is 2017)
 Planning
$
$
$
$
$$
&
$
$
$
 MRT-Blue Line
 MRT-Orange Line
Nantou
Changhua
$
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai$
. Hong Kong . Macau
4
Background -Orange Line
Taichung
Airport
OA4
$
OA3
$
OA2
Taichung
MRT — Orange Line
$
$OA1
O1
O2
$
$ O3
$
O4/G7
$
O5 $ $O6
From
OA4
To
O17
Length,km (elevated)
14.7
Length,km (underground)
14.8
O7 $
O8 $
O10 $
$
O9/B9
$O11
$O12
O13
Changhua
$
$O14
O15
$
Total Length,km
Stations (elevated,
Stations (underground,
8
)
13
Total number of stations
21
$O16
MRT System
$O17
Depot
Depot
)
29.5
Transfer Stations (
MCT
1
,
)
2
Nantou
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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What Do We Want to Know?
1
• Percent of Private Trips to Total
2
• Orange Line Boarding (passengers/day) and Revenue
3
• Traffic Impact of the Surrounding Area
4
• Travel Time Savings (reduced travel time and new trips)
5
• Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (fuel and non-fuel
6
• Accident Cost Savings (safety benefits)
7
• Emission Reductions (CO, NOx PM10)
8
• Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies
operating cost reductions)
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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Why Do We Update?
Development of TC Model
•Tranplan+ Transport
•Base Year: 1988
•Future Year: 2020
•TAZs: 138(132+6)zones
•Household Travel
Survey: 1990
(Samples: 12,000)
•Tranplan+ Transport
•Base Year: 1994
•Future Year: 2021
•TAZs: 257 (253+4)zones
•Household Travel
Survey: 1995
•TransCAD
•Base Year: 2001
•Future Year: 2031
•TAZs : 257(253+4)zones
•Household Travel
Survey: No
•TransCAD
•Base Year: 2007
•Future Year: 2031
•TAZs: 257(253+4)zones
•Household Travel
Survey: No
(Samples: 1,700)
 The Household Travel Survey has been not conducted since 1995.
 TransCAD using dialog boxes to input which can’t take down all steps.
 Final model only has OD matries and the highway network.
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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How Do We Update ?
Major updates
Select a new
modeling
platform
(CUBE)
Update
screen line
survey and
cordon line
survey
Update travel
behavior
survey
Check and
adjust trip
generation
rates
Reconstruct the
highway
network and
transit network
Update and
forecast the
demographic
data
Check and
update the
Traffic Analysis
Zones
Better data and good tools can effectively improve model accuracy !
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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How Do We Update ? –
Model Methodology Outline
Model Structure: Sequential 4-step model
Module
Approaches
• Production: Cross-classification
• Attraction: Multiple Regression
•Gravity Model
•Impedance Function: Gamma Function
•Travel Behavior Survey: Stated Preference
•Multinomial Logit Model(MNL)
•HW: Multi-Modal Equilibrium Assignment Model
•PT: Best-Path
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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Introduction of TCModel 2011
–Model Structure
 4-step Travel Demand Modeling Procedure
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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Introduction of TCModel 2011
–Model Characteristics
•Internal: 320 zones
•External: 7 zones
•Reserve: 16 zones
•Total number of
zones: 343 zones
•Total number of
links: 42,681 links
•Transit Lines: 335
lines
•Car
•Motor
•Bus
•Taiwan Rail
•MRT
•Weekday
•24hrs
• Peak hour
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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Introduction of TCModel 2011
–Scenario Management Interface
This provides a convenient interface for defining
scenarios, editing and running the scenarios.
 Planning Year: 2021(Y110), 2031(Y120) , 2041(Y130)
 Scenarios:
 Land Use Policies: Without TOD , With TOD
 Traffic Policies: Bus headway, Oil prices, Parking fare
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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Introduction of TCModel 2011
–Applications of Model Outputs
 Boarding Passengers
 Passengers Per Hour in Peak
Direction(PPHPD or p/h/d)
 Passenger Kilometers Traveled
(PKMT)
 Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT)
 Vehicle Kilometers Traveled
(VKMT)
 Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT)
 Average Speeds
 Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratios
 Station Design
 Train Operation Plan
 Economic Benefit-Cost
Analysis
 Financial Viability
Analysis
 Policy Analysis
 Traffic Impact Analysis
 Sreen Line Analysis
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau
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The end
Thank you!
E-mail : teresa@thi.com.tw
Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau