Building Global Immunity:
Anticipating, Preventing and Responding to
Superempowered Individuals and Groups in a
Metaverse Society
Mad Scientist 2008 – Future Tech Seminar
August 2008  Portsmouth, VA
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) futures studies, a model of change that
proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and
trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we
may use to create unique and creative paths (many of
which will fail) on the way to these highly probable
developmental destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary
and Developmental Processes in the Universe
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of
physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social
scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested
in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and
developmental (significantly predictable) processes
in the universe and its subsystems.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):
The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
“Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism
Life Cycle, Growth Curves,
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
MEST Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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Palo Alto
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Development
Evo Devo
(Intersection)
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political
dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without continuous
change/creativity creates sterility, clonality,
overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability
creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally
stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Three Primary Foresight Skills
Future Creation, Discovery, and Management
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or
Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards
(low-probability but high-impact events).
In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage
(“CDM”) the future.
 Creation (“Possible”)
– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies
for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation,
exploratory research and development, creative thinking,
social networking
 Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)
– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of
prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems
theory, risk analysis, marketing research
 Management (“Preferable”)
– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,
scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging,
enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and
time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Three Primary Foresight Domains:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Futures Studies
– “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change
(scenarios, trends, strategy)
 Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)
– Predictable and statistically irreversible change
(emergences, phase changes)
 Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)
– Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback,
self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes
Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in
today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.
Nevertheless, there are few primary academic
programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years),
and none in DS or AS (by name at least).

© 2008 Accelerating.org
Wikipedia breeds Intellipedia and Eventually,
Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Understanding and
Managing Development
Predictable, Directional, Generally
Irreversible, Cyclical, Conservative
Human Development Studies:
Sequential Growth Stages
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are
sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map:
All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Paths
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Examples:
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Secularism (human-derived
values)
Ecumenicalism (seeing
wisdom in all faiths)
Rationality (logic+empiricism)
Self Expression
Subjective Well Being
Quality of Life
Sustainability
World Awareness
Future Orientation
Political Moderation
Interpersonal Trust
Casualness
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.
worldvaluessurvey.org
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Trend: Declining Global Violence
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Stephen Pinker, “The History of Violence,” 2007
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Civil society, positive-sum, empathy, immunity
20th Century war deaths of 100 million would have
been 2 billion (20X) if they had the relative mortality of
tribal warfare.
Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from 24 per
100,000 in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000
by the early 1960s.
Battle deaths in interstate wars have
declined from 65,000/yr in the 1950s
to 2,000/yr in 1990’s
See Human Security Brief 2006
(www.humansecuritybrief.info/)
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Trend: Avg US literacy scores projected to decline
between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 Literacy
By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category
A Flatter Curve Means
More Inequality
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New York
Palo Alto
Less Proficient
America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007
More Proficient
© 2008 Accelerating.org
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the
commercial digital world emerged.
New problems have emerged (population, human rights,
asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions
for each in coming waves of technological globalization.
“The human does not change, but our house
becomes exponentially more intelligent.”
We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their
human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,
who realized the core acceleration is due to
the intrinsic properties of technological systems.
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New York
Palo Alto
Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Likely Network Society Developments:
Staggered Closing of Global Divides
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of
the world now has access to a telephone*.
Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom
Education divide may close next (postConversational Interface, post-2020)
Income divide may close next. Developed
world plutocracy is still increasing, but slower
than before. We’ve been “rationalizing” global
workforce wages since 1990’s*.
Power divide is likely to close last. Political
change is the slowest of all domains.
*World Bank, 2005
© 2008 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression Implication:
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Technological (dominant since 1920-50)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in
itself, how easily it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
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New York
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Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 50,000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of
the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Angus Maddison’s
Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Services/Network/Information Society
Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)
Network 1.0
“McJobs” & Service
65% of Jobs, 2000’s
Network 2.0
New Middle Class
40% of Jobs, 2030’s
Network 3.0
Consolidation Again
15% of Jobs, 2060’s
Products/Manufacturing Society
Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)
Manufacturing 1.0
Exploitive Jobs
50% of Jobs, 1900’s
Manufacturing 2.0
New Middle Class
35% of Jobs, 1950’s
Manufacturing 3.0
Offshoring/Globalizing
14% of Jobs, 2000’s
Resources/Agricultural Society
Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)
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Agriculture 1.0
Subsistence Jobs
80% of Jobs, 1820’s
Agriculture 2.0
Family Farms
50% of Jobs, 1920’s
Agriculture 3.0
Corporate Farms
2% of Jobs, 1990’s
See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03
© 2008 Accelerating.org
China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Annual average GDP growth of 9.5%
(Some urban areas up to 20%!)
Largest global producer of toys,
clothing, consumer electronics.
Moving into cars, computers,
biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc.
1.5 billion hard workers “greatest
natural resource on the planet.”
High savings, factory wages start at
40 cents/hour
45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories
20,000 European Contract Factories
15,000 U.S. Contract Factories
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36
million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's
population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us.

From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail e-commerce
(business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for
the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5
million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current
projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per
capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4X
higher than China’s.

In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than
6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China
already had the single largest population of online gamers.

Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the
future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future.”
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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New York
Palo Alto
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace:
User-Modified 3D Persistent Worlds
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Global Collaboration and
Coexperience Environments
Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others
Streaming video coming 2008.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future Salon in Second Life
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Tech Development:
Finding and Funding the Bottlenecks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Li-Ion Nanobattery
80% recharge in 60 seconds
80X faster recharge (hi amp).
Duty to 2,500 vs 500 cycles
5X increase in duty length
Better at temp extremes
Cost competitive
Toshiba (2005)
A123/De Walt (2008)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable
and mobile electronics
 Military apps (FCS)
 Plug-in hybrids at home and
filling stations (“90% of an
electric vehicle economy”)

“The future’s already here. It’s just not
evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Innovation, Patents, and Policy
in Large vs. Small Companies
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no
incentive to implement unless:
a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents
b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing
c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened
d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence)
Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no
incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the
same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower
CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.
Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote
premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs.
effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).
Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid
until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers,
or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Some Solutions:
Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations
Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry
Mandate tough and increasing performance standards
Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies.
Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions
Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs
Promote corporate transparency
Promote public stock ownership
Toyota’s 1/X
Concept Car (2007)
1/3 the weight
2X the fuel efficiency
of the Prius
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Big Companies are Necessary But Counterinnovative,
So Fund Small and Mid-Size Companies Wherever Possible
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2008 Accelerating.org
IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator:
Lessons of Bose (2000) and Microvision (2003)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy
(often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).
© 2008 Accelerating.org
U.S. Army:
Development Challenges and Opportunities
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Security Leader
Development Partner
This makes institutional sense. A natural constraint.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Many development capability options:
 Specialization (Corps of Engineers, etc.).
 Unique Capacities (Fire and weather mgmt, FLEs)
 Competition (Cross services bidding)
 Incentives if under budget and before deadline with
quality (ex: Kowloon Tunnel (Hong Kong), Human
Genome Project, etc.))
 Networks (America’s Army: worldwide devel. recruits)
 Partnerships. Most obvious: USAID (long term
optimists). Many others as well (bottom up).
© 2008 Accelerating.org
“NISCB”: Five Substrates for Complexity
Development, Arranged “Fastest First”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Nanotech (nanoscale science and materials engrg)
Infotech (computing and communication, EE)
Sociotech (org. and social tech, mech eng./robotics)
Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors)
Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a
still-early technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older,
less centrally accelerating technologies.
Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and
diffusion. First and second mover advantages.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Disruptive MEST Compression in Inner Space:
Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Lasers today can made cheaply only in some
areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for
example, UV laser light for cancer detection
and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004
that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen
gas, a device known as a "photonic
crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the
wavelengths previously unavailable.
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic
array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle)
acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy
efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of
jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT
and networking revolutions.
Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in
physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why
they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we
remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Inner Space: Using Quantum Computers for the
Simulation and Investigation of Quantum Processes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 Quantum
Computing is a Vast, Uncharted
Investigation Space (‘Hilbert Space’).
 Today’s Early Quantum S&T Programs:
–
–
–
Crypto, Factoring, Search Algorithms
Jon P. Dowling
Secret Communications (Quantum Internet)
QST @ LSU
Imaging and Sensing (‘No Emission’ Imaging)
 No
Exponential Advantage of Quantum vs Classical
Computers for NP-Hard Problems (Scott Aaronson)
 So What is their Future “Killer Application”?
–
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
–
Modeling Quantum Processes (“Turning atoms into bits”)
Continue riding our Learning Curves in Materials Science
Positive feedback for nano, opto, quantum computing.
A 24 qubit quantum computer can instantly model ground
state of a Thorium atom. Far too difficult to do classically.
“Long run: “Programmable Matter?” (Wil McCarthy)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Automation and Artificial Intelligence
Empowering the Technology Infrastructure
Understanding Process Automation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Perhaps 80% of today's First World
paycheck is paid for by automation
(“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics
(Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
“7/8 comes from technical progress.”
Human contribution (20%?) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
Continual education and “taxing the
machines” are the final job descriptions
for all human beings.
Long-Term: Everyone becomes a service
provider, “famous to 15 people”.
Termite Mound
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
• AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry
― $1B in 1993 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI
― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing
faster than decision support, agents, evo AI
― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms
• Translation, Natural Language Processing, and
Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly
(Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems)
Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon.
• Coming: Conversational Interface (CI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture/Valuecosm
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Robo sapiens
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“Huey and Louey”
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Can get up when he falls or
when you knock him down)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Aibo Soccer
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Biologically-Inspired Technology and
Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Today we have weakly biologically-inspired computing
technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms,
developmental genetic programming, belief networks,
support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc.)
When such systems become:
 Strongly biologically-inspired
 Extensively self-improving (semi-autonomous)
 Leading strategies for creating complex systems
Only then may the “technological singularity” be near.
For more,
attend:
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2008 Accelerating.org
How do you get stability/safety in an evolutionary
system? Select for symbiosis.
Acceleration
Studies
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
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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Los Angeles
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Look at how we do it in
domesticated animals (10,000
years, 5,000 breeding cycles).
How many breeds of dogs and
cats can you trust with small
children?
Military will always have the
warbots (narrowly trustable)
Most breeds of robotic systems will
be generally trustable, all will be
trustable for their missions, or we
won’t build them using evolutionary
processes.
Boston Dynamics BigDog
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Saturation in Perceived Tech Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Question: Could the 21st Century provide equally as fundamental breakthroughs, in
terms of human impact? I would argue not. Once you’ve fed, watered, housed, transported,
connected, educated, entertained, and healed the masses of humanity, you’ve pretty much
maxed out the fundamental innovations you can expect in the human phase space.
In other words: From the average person’s perspective, we can expect “more, better, with less”
of each of the above in the 21st century, but increasingly less disruptive social change.
Increasingly, innovative 21st century developments must occur in technology intelligence
and autonomy —on the other side of the event horizon from common human experience.
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Palo Alto
Disagree? See: Measuring Innovation in an Accelerating World, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 72(8):988-995, John Smart, 2005
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Intelligence Amplification
Machine-Aided Individual
and Collective Intelligence
Digital Transparency:
Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie
clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam,
What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits
(2003) are early examples of “lifelogs,”
(aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for
recording, auto-archiving and autoindexing all life experience.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then
everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add
NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this
data begins turning into wisdom.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
The Conversational Interface (CI):
Circa 2015-2020 Developmental Attractor
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent
Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel is a more efficient
communication modality.
Ananova, 2002
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Post 2015-2025: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
 A time
when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Bracelet phone
(Nokia 2004)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2006)
Los Angeles
Wearcam.org’s
New York
Palo Alto‘sousveillance’
first-gen
cams (2001)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Valuecosm 2030:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2008 Accelerating.org
The Leader’s Challenge:
Guiding Us to “Plural Positive” Futures
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Pluralistic
Positive-Sum
Differentiated
“Both/And”
Social-Tech
versus
versus
versus
versus
Plutocratic
Zero-Sum
Homogeneous
“Either/Or” Futures
AND
Individual advance
(Top-Down, Devo)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Calculator Prolif.
Automation Incr.
Metaverse Adv.
Automated Cars
Digital Twins
Security
(Bottom-Up, Evo)
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
Math Skills
Work/Prod. Skills
Study/Reading Skills
Driving Skills
Self-Empowerment
Freedom (to & from)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Immunity and the Network Society
Key Metaphors for
Global Security and Development
Immune Systems
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
All Complex Systems are Protected By Them
 Molecular-level Surveillance (Transparency)
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Difficult to See, Can Fail Subtly (Subliminality)
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Ex: HLA sensing and birth control pills.
Multiple Overlapping Processes (Redundancy)
–
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Highly complex gene networks allow you to recognize
roughly 1 million protein antigens as “self” at birth. MHC
complex in each cell grinds up and presents to your immune
cells fragments of anything that is “nonself”.
Barriers, NK Cells, MHC, AP Cells, T-cells, B Cells,
Antibodies, Complement, etc.
Statistical Effects (Graceful Degradation)
Rapid response (Institutional Memory)
Strengthened by Catastrophe (Learning System)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
The Network Society
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
- Teilhard de Chardin, 1955
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition (“Singularity”)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap:
Our New Global Defense Paradigm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Core Countries vs the Technologically,
Culturally, and Economically Disconnected
Gap Countries, which together form a
socio-computational “Ozone Hole.”
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Why the Gap Shrinks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“He who can handle the quickest rate of change
survives.” -- Col. John Boyd, Military Strategist
MEST compression/Accelerating Change selects for
adaptiveness and to a degree, social complexity.
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Why Eurasia won the sociopolitical, technological,
military, and germ development race (Largest EastWest Axis, earliest domestication of animals, Jared
Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel).
Why Europeans decimated the Americas and Pacific
Islanders with a host of crowd infectious diseases,
and not the other way around.
Why the Gap will shrink to next-to-nothing as we
create a transparent global society this century.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
John Boyd: Energy-Maneuverability Theory
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Jet’s Maneuverability (Average Kinetic Energy) =
(Thrust minus Drag over Weight) x Velocity
Led Boyd and the USAF “Lightweight Fighter Mafia” to
strongly advocate radical lightweighting and design
improvements to the F-15 and F-16.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
For all Boyd briefs and commentary, visit Chet Richard’s site:
www.d-n-i.net/second_level/boyd_military.htm
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression and Reaction Time:
Boyd’s OODA Loop
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Rise of maneuver vs. attrition warfare (fast infantry > cavalry > ground vehicles > jet fighters > netwar)
Since Napoleon’s fast infantry, the best tech continually “gets inside the decision cycle” of the opponent.
Latest Manifestation: “Rapid Dominance/Shock and Awe” Strategy. Gulf War I and II (beginning).
-- Massive communication (land, air, space) and air power (recon, bombers, fighters, missiles).
-- Target enemy command and control.
A) Total command of the skies and B) overwhelming firepower are not enough. They must be C)
deployable inside the enemy’s OODA loop. Israel had A&B in the 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, but
Hezbollah had better and faster ground maneuverability and concealment. Stalemate.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Superior Energy-Maneuverability and Rapid OODA:
The Tactical Advantage of Small, Expert Teams
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Small teams can:
-- Rapidly innovate and adapt
-- Operate below the radar (stealth)
-- Have superior urgency and purpose
-- Ignore convention and pursue vision
-- Get hand-picked excellence and resources
-- Sustain their speed via redundancy and reserves
-- Be expendable, experimental, exploratory as needed
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
These are increasingly critical advantages in a globalized,
accelerating, network-centric world.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
COIN, RDF, and Special Forces:
A Leading Role in the Future Military
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future joint (JFCOM and International) operational priorities:
Countering global extended insurgencies (presently 120).
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Sometimes the more you protect your COIN/SOF
force, vs. the host populace, the less secure you are.
Sometimes the more force is used the less effective it is.
Sometimes doing nothing (in response) is the best action.
The more successful the counterinsurgency op, the less it must
be used (vs. police) and the more risk accepted.
The best counterinsurgency weapons (public support, economic
development, political participation, hope) do not shoot.
Usually, helping the host nation do something tolerably is better
(to the host public) than us doing it well.
Tactical success guarantees nothing. Tactics are highly time and
context dependent.
Many of the most important decisions are made by “strategic
corporals,” not generals.
From: Counterinsurgency, Army FM 3-24, David Petraeus, James Amos, et. al. (2006), p. 27
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Superempowered Individuals and Groups
Increasingly Pivotal
Threats and Catalysts to Global Immunity
Many High-Value Targets in Developed Societies
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Transport
(airways, ports, railways, bridges, tunnels)
 Energy (refineries, pipelines, oil wells, dams, grids)
 Commerce (skyscrapers, financial markets, malls)
 Entertainment (sports arenas, theatres, )
 Data (computing facilities, databases)
 Communications (cable, satellite, cellular, radio)
 Other (nuclear plants, prisons, water treatment)
When have we seen persistent systemic sabotage?
Primarily in independence/separatist/resistance
movements (IRA, Chechnya, Palestine, FARC, Iraq,
etc.).
Can we allow balkanization? What are the benefits/risks?
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Proportionate, Localized Response
(Well-Trained Immune Systems)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Bin Laden Tape (2004 US Election)
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Decentralized vs. Centralized Control and Response
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“We are not haters of freedom. We did not attack Sweden,
we attacked the US.” Specifically anti-US policy goals.
9/11 attackers cost Bin Laden $500K, ‘caused $500B in
indirect costs’ (“a million-to-one payoff”).
Bin Laden calculated we’d go to Afghanistan (and bleed like
the Russians did). We went to Iraq instead (much greater
ecnomic hit, by most estimates).
“Economic jihad” against the US. Fatwa to “bleed the US
financially, decrease its global insignificance.”
“Superpower baiting.” Seeking disproportionate response,
economic damage, bureaucracy.
“Resilient communities” (John Robb)
Local sensors, effectors, data processing
Brave New War, John Robb, 2007; Overblown, John Mueller, 2006
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Universal Game Theory and Global Security
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Economics (experimental econ, neuroecon, etc.),
anthropology, evolutionary biology, psychology, and
sociology are converging to provide a framework for
understanding the universal human urge to cooperate.
Universal game theory/cooperation theory/social contract
theory has been invigorated by Ernest Fehr’s Ultimatum
Game. Two people share a windfall (say $10). Person A gets
to propose the split, Person B must accept. Typical splits
are 5-5 or 6-4, never 9-1 (Homo economicus). In some
places (Lamalera, Indonesia) splits are consistently 4-6.
Equity is the rational economic choice under the right
conditions. Understanding how those conditions break
down is the key to effective law, policy, and national
security.
Moral Sentiments and
Material Interests, Herb
Gintis et. al. (2006)
All our economic, legal, and social structures (value of our fiat currency, stock
market, law, social custom) are best understood as iterated positive sum games.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
LA Times Homicide Map: A Geography of Violence
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Brazil’s Land and Housing Activist Movements:
Sem Terra (without land) and Sem Teto (without roof)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit


Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Slum dwellers need stable living space, security,
sanitation, clean water, affordable food. If they don’t get
these they may take them by mass civil disobedience, an
increasingly effective strategy in the Network Age.
Squatters (468 homeless families) took over an unused
22 story office building in Sao Paulo in 2002. "At first
glance Prestes Maia seems a chaotic shantytown;
cardboard spews out of its cracked windows, graffiti litter
its walls and children rattle through its wide corridors on bicycles. But the
community is meticulously organised. Residents contribute R$20 (£5) a
month to the upkeep of the building and cleaning communal bathrooms.”
Sem Teto, the Roofless Movement is the urban equivalent to Brazil's
Movimento dos Sem Terra (MST) or Landless Movement, which has
spearheaded the campaign for land reform since the 1980s. Sem Terra
defends Brazil's impoverished rural workers and reclaims unproductive and
unused land for the dispossessed. Movimento de Sem Teto do Centro,
MSTC reclaims buildings for the urban homeless and low-income workers.
Sem Terra and Sem Teto may be the start of much more networked,
activist squatter communities of the future. Smart mobs, indeed.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
SIMAD: Superempowered Individuals,
Massively Asymmetrically Destructive
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Post 9/11 Anthrax Attack (Bruce Ivins)
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“Ability of one person (or small group) to declare war
on the world… and win.” (John Robb)
This is particularly true if the SI’s are seeking:
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
One superempowered individual.
Five died, $5 billion spent by USPS alone ($1B per sorting
center), plus many billions more by homeland security
(hazmat suits, etc.).
Fortress America (or Fortress World)
Slower globalization
Specific policy goals (companies out of certain markets, etc.)
Money (blackmail, kidnapping)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
DIMAD: Duo of Individuals,
Massively Asymmetrically Destructive
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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
Folie à deux, troix, quatre, famille
(a madness shared by two, three, four, family)
Can be long-term stable, hard to detect
Genesis needs better study.
Always signs in the alienation of the duo, trio, etc.
One long term solution:
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
–
Social networks become Symbiont Networks (2020+)
Serious DSM-IV pathologies (psychopathologies,
schizophrenia, delusional disorders) are each typically
less than 1% of the population.
95+ percent of us have “normal” moral and social codes.
As connectivity improves, people ID’d with serious mental
problems, criminal rehab, executive performance, etc. will
all use symbiont networks (“networked to normalcy”). A
level of therapy just not possible today.
The challenge becomes the identification.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
BOGMAD: ‘Bunch of Guys,’
Massively Asymmetrically Destructive
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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
Hamburg Cell (9/11).
Escalating, group-fueled ideological,
conversation-driven radicalism.
Better bugs (video and audio) and
surveillance laws.
One Concern:
–
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Laws against and detection of devices that allow
BOGs, sitting in a room, to have wired or wireless
encrypted conversation by keystroke, while having
inocuous verbal conversations.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Valuable Paradigm: Think of
SIMADs, DIMADs, and BOGMADs as Entrepreneurs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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
These are people with ‘Revolutionary Ideas’ looking for
funding. They often can’t help their obsessions.
In network age, it’s easier every year for funders
(“Terror Capitalists”) to find and hire these individuals,
anonymously. Superempowerment by proxy.
Long run solutions:
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
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Identification, Monitoring, even Employment (“Find them First”)
There are comparatively few such individuals, they can be ID’d
(have a history), they want to tinker for someone.
Often loners, looking for social purpose.
Income/asset transparency (but money a 2ndary motivation).
Govt: US DoE’s Intiatives for Proliferation Prevention,
Govt-Industry: Megatons to Megawatts Program, etc.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Lesson of Timothy McVeigh
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Deadliest US terrorism prior to 9/11. (168 killed in Oklahoma City
Bombing, 1995).
Had been an excellent marksman in US Army, Bronze Star from
Gulf War.
After Army he applied to Special Forces (Green Berets), dropped
out, subsequently self-radicalized in talk, then action.
McVeigh took a Primary Leadership Development Course
(PLDC) prior to Desert Storm (1991). What more could we have
done?
DIMAD. Terry Nichols was an accomplice.
He was selectively influenced by (and sold at gun shows) the
Turner Diaries. He rejected the white supremacy aspects,
adopted the domestic terrorism-activism subplot.
Question: What if there’d been a special program for such highcapacity (and clearly downtrend) individuals? Conferences,
career transition help, social networks.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Nigeria’s Oil Delta:
A Lesson in BOGMAD Creation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
MEND: Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, emerged in 2006 as
the latest in a series of increasingly professional armed militia groups demanding
political reform and a ($1.5 billion) share in the oil profits for Nigeria’s impoverished 27
million Delta inhabitants
 Oil industry development has polluted Nigeria’s rivers, collapsing subsistence fishing
 Nigeria’s population boom and squatter city growth continues
 High levels of government corruption at all levels, a longstanding problem in Nigeria
 A small no. of very large corporations (Shell, ChevronTexaco, etc.) make big profits
while claiming no ability to collectively shape development policy in Nigeria
 No intergovernmental political or security agency (UN, G7, NATO, etc.) has
stepped forward to pressure for Nigerian governmental reforms
 Disenfranchised militant groups are an important global security problem

Al Haji Asari Dokubo and the
Los Angeles
Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force
New York
(2004, Bought-Out “Amateurs”)
Palo Alto
Jomo Gbomo, MEND, and the United Ijaw States
(2006+, Non-Purchasable “Professionals”)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Ilicit Small Arms, and Light Weapons (SALW)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
UN Definition: “any man-portable lethal weapon that expels or
launches, or may be readily converted to expel or launch a shot,
bullet or projectile by the action of an explosive. “
600 million SALW in circulation, perhaps half of these are illicit.
Typical Sources:
 Illicit brokering
 Smuggling
 Weapons left over from conflicts
 Leakage from military and police stockpiles
 Theft
 Illicit manufacturing
Many incredibly simple designs exist.
British WWII 9 mm Sten gun: only 47 parts.
Gun manufacture must be licensed, legal.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
High-Powered Rocketry – A High-End Hobby:
High Time to License? Confidential Sec Clearance?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
RocketMavericks, Black Rock Desert, NV
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Radio-Control Manufacturers:
Immune Systems Needed in RC Devices
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Dec. 17, 2003: TAM-5, an 11-pound RC plane flies
1,888 miles from Canada to Ireland in 38 hours, 53
minutes. (100 yr anniversary of Wright Brother’s first
12 second flight.)
When will guidance get sophisticated enough for
precise targeting?
Can we define, license and confidential clear the folks
who do such high-end RC?
DoD and Law Enforcement needs to hold RC
manufacturers accountable. These systems need:
– Presence: Urban Map of all RC Flyers
– Control: Ability to shut down all RC in urban area.
– Laws: Against RC without “presence and control.”
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Explosives, Rockets, COTS Tech, & Trial and Error:
Man-Portable Tactical Missiles
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Greatest Near-Term Threats:
Illicitly-Made Next-Gen Tele-IEDs
Illicitly-Made Man-Portable Missiles.
Look what US supplied Stingers did to USSR in
Afghanistan. Devastating capacity.
 270 confirmed aircraft kills so far.
 Infrared guided.
 Two Mfgrs (Raytheon, EADS)
 70,000 missiles produced to date. (Chipped?)
One Solution: Special ICC and US laws against
explosives production, missile production, multiple
persistent stings (entrapment). Legal entrapment
affordances.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Can a Sony PS2 Guide a Missile?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Export controls were placed by on PS2 by
Japan in 2000 due to its missile guidance and
other military capability. Obviously temporary.
Saddam Hussein purchased 4,000 in 2000
(considered “toys” not included in embargos).
Now on eBay for $100. 140 million units sold.
Untraceable COTS.
“Military fears over Playstation2,” BBC News, April 17, 2000
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Portable Missiles: DIY Cruise Missile Project
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
One man (Bruce Simpson, 2002+)
Interestingprojects.com/cruisemissile. Website still up.
“Watch me build one for under NZ $5,000.”
“I'm not publicizing anything not already on the net.”
Iran contacted him offering to pay
for details of his research.
Shut down 2003 by NZ Govt,
working with US intell. Violating the
international Missile Technology
Control Regime.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Nuclear Terrorism
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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US/Russian bilateral leadership needed on nuclear
nonproliferation.
This is the primary reason the two Cold War countries need each
other.
Russia is now the world’s #1 energy producer. Increasingly
independent politically.
They ask: Why do they need us? Ans: To safeguard their future.
Continued regulation and slowdown of ultracentrifuge, laser
isotope, EM, chemical, and other uranium separation technologies.
Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS).
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Exxon was working on this technology in 1980’s, shut down after
$200M investment.
USEC was working on this technology 1994-1999, also shut down after
$100M investment.
Iran had a secret AVLIS program prior to 2003, claims to have shut it
down since it was exposed.
Ocean water AVLIS possible in the basement in 2100? Bet on it.
But with appropriate transparency and immunity, we can keep our
civil liberties and manage this problem. Bet on it.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Bioterrorism
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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
There has never been a pathogen that has killed a
species. This is very difficult, at present.
Differential immunity, quarantining “put out the fires,”
spread the less lethal variants far more rapidly.
Best Long-Run Solutions:
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Understand the pathogens and their simple strategies
Build complex bioimmunity. Close the vulnerability window.
Will people be able to make superengineered pathogens and
kill hundreds of thousands with them in 2050? Very unlikely.
Vaccines, disease surveillance, molecular immunology will be
too powerful by then, in my bet.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Red Teaming the Urban Entropy Points
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Could you tip this
building with RC and
explosives?
Could you dominoe some
of these buildings by
tipping just one?
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Underground Technologies
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit


It is too easy to go underground.
Underground tunnels
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
Underground factories:
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Drug production, kidnapping, slavery
Some solutions:
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Smuggling, escape routes, “safe houses”.
Better power and sewer monitoring
Better arial imaging
Better ground penetrating sonar
Special laws against digging illegal basements,
human enclosures.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Selling and Building Immunity
How Much? How Fast?
Our Choice
Healthy Immunity Protects Privacy, Ends Anonymity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

A healthy living system is:
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There is no place your immune cells can’t go
Likewise, in late 21C society privacy,
compartments, secrets will abound, yet all
communications and actors must, by then,
be near fully immune-transparent.
The alternative just doesn’t work (as we’ll see).
And since information can asymmetrically protect
itself (far easier to encrypt than decrypt):
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
transparent to a trusted immune system
compartmentalized to everyone else.
–
All encryption keys must be breakable by trusted actors, with
due process.
Packet sniffing/channel sampling to find illicit economies.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Panopticon: Affordable, Balanced Transparency
is a Positive-Sum Game in Civil Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Surveillance (top-down tracking)
Souveillance (bottom-up tracking)
Ex: Lower Manhattan Security Initiative (2008):
- 3,000 new sec. cameras, 2/3 in private hands.
- Automated license plate readers (like UK).
Ex: Cameras in Police Cruisers (2003+)
- Sometimes at behest of officers (safety)
- Sometimes citizen initiatives (civil rights)
Balance is a ‘Panopticon’, all-watching-all in
public space. (Transparent Society, 2008)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for
paper currency (2003)
Tracking illicit economies
(a major global vulnerability)
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Visual Transparency: Speed Cameras,
Camera Traps and Mesh Networks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Red light camera
(Beaverton, OR)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Asiatic Cheetas (Iran, 2005)
WoodsWatcher, $285
We can buy $200 surveillance
cameras at Wal-Mart (2005).
When are we going to see $20
camera traps for personal use?
When in developing nations?
Rare and previously thought extinct
animals are being discovered.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
What are the Contingency Plans for SI’s and SG’s?
How Do We “Catalyze Immunity” from Catastrophe?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Lesson: Shell Oil Scenarios
foresaw and took advantage of:
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
OPEC Oil Embargo (1972)
Fall of Soviet Union (1989)
Be ready for rapid learning from catastrophe
with appropriate immune responses
Pay for Serious Foresight (Scenarios, Driving Forces)
Have the Best Plans on the Shelf
Have the Best R&D Strategy
Execute when Opportune
“People don’t change when they see the light,
they change when they feel the heat.”
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Anticipation Example:
Shotspotters and Next-Gen Security Cams
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 What
is the Contingency Plan for next Serial Sniper?
 Beltway Sniper Attacks
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Three weeks, ten deaths (Oct 2002)
Two individuals (John Muhammad, Lee Malvo)
Stealth technology (Caprice sedan w/ cutout)
 Subsidized
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Used in high-crime areas (LA, SF)
“Broken Windows” effect (police quickly knock on doors after, to
see what was seen). Measurable effects on CompStat.
Institutional resistance (far more prolific and accurate calls)
 Subsidized
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Sound-Sensitive Telephoto Security Cams
Swivel, 100X zoom, $700. Turn/zoom to screams or shots, $300.
Should be $100. Lawsuits against places that don’t have them.
 Lesson
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Shotspotters
to Shooters: They are building their own cage.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Anticipation Example:
NICS, Self-Censorship, Ballistic Shields
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

What’s the Contingency Plan for next Mass Shooting?
 Virginia
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Tech Massacre
Two hours, thirty-two deaths (Apr 2007)
One individual (Seung-Hui Cho)
Mental illness history
Relished the standoff (self-styled gunslinger)
NBC, CNN aired parts of his manifesto, still on YouTube today
 Stronger
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NICS (Nat’l Instant Criminal Background Check) strengthened
(those judged mentally unsound unable to purchase guns).
 Stronger
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NICS / Gun Control Laws (happened)
Media Self-Censorship Codes and Laws
Clarification of Glorification (Pandering)
 Subsidized
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Ballistic Shields
20-50lbs, stop ALL handguns, 90% of rifles.
Shotports, built in tasers.
$1500, should be $200. Avail. like fire extinguishers.
Lawsuits against places that don’t have them.
Home versions have integrated 911 cellphones.
 Lesson
to Shooters: Rapid takedowns.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Point-of-Contact Fingerprint PDAs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
UK’s Lantern (2006+) allows roadside scanning
wireless search of 6.5M fingerprint database.
 Under 5 mins in 2006. Under 2 mins (2008).
 Saves £2.2M annually (taking documentless
suspects to station for fingerprint identification).
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Significant fraction (“60%”) of documentless felons
stopped by police do not give their true identity.
Ten force pilot managed by Police Info Tech Org (2006).
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Institutionalized sandbox/trials space.
100,000 ordered at the cost of £50 million (2008)
 Trial Balloon for Legal Change
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
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Point-of-contact vs. station fingerprinting voluntary
Telegraphed desire to change the law, to give beat officers same
legal rights regarding fingerprinting as station-based officers
What’s the Best Context for launching this initiative in US?
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Asymmetric Transparency: Stratellites for Global
Security, Communications, Space Solar Power V. 1.0
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Stationkeeping at 70K feet for a year (Helios 1999+)
Space-to-stratosphere powered, relayed above most
atmosphere (high efficiency, no EMI or heating)
Many stratellites served by each satellite
Very high resolution radar and visual intelligence
Uses: Theatre ops, comm. relay, missile early
warning, border monitoring, city monitoring, etc.
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground)
of our 21st Century Global Security Paradigm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Sputnik (1957)
Humbot 0.1 (2005)
Humbot 1.0 (2035?)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: Will a U.S.-Japanese-led security consortium supply the world with Humbot 0.3?
A
Chinese-Korea-led Consortium? Major strategic uncertainty. The choice is ours.
Los Angeles
Humbot
1.0 will secure the Gap Countries, and may have the single greatest impact
New
York
Palo
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
on Alto
global armed forces structure of any 21st century tech. Are we planning
for this?
Networked Weapons:
Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters)
Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins)
Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours)
2005+: Video recording.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Networked Weapons (NWs)
convert security systems from
intrinsically offensive
intrinsically defensive assets.
• GPS-on-a-chip data recorders are doable today (but still expensive).
• Localizers later. 30 second ping intervals, like cellphone.
• Military, large weapons first? Global handguns next?
• Consumer versions with 911, audio, and video necklace (2025?)
• People who buy guns for defense want to be localized.
• Get a percentage using it voluntarily, have option to require ©it2007
later.
2008 Accelerating.org
Immunity Platform: Cellphones
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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


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
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Cell phone communication is a strategic
defensive asset, with intrinsically stabilizing,
self-balancing features.
Granular ability to monitor and locate, finegrained revocation of privileges.
Disaster warnings, public information.
3G platform allows cameraphones, video
recording, Neighborhood Watch.
Proliferation of citizen journalism,
entertainment, and entrepreneurship.
Can build in immune systems (Q-Zone)
CPA’s Iraq rollout was a profitmaking
venture, ensuring minimum civilian access.
No subsidization, no accelerated timetables,
no military control.
BlueLinx
TrafficWiSE, TrafficGauge
(Wireless Signal Extraction)
agg. realtime cellphone data
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Tech Immune Systems Example: Cellphones
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
An intrinsically defensive asset.
-- Monitorable (location and content)
-- Strengthen personal networks
-- The mean can self-police the extremes (report
scofflaws)
-- Granular privileges (given and revoked)
-- Can be built robustly (dynamo, shoe batts)
-- Chip provides superior ID (address books)
-- Hot button to security radio band
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Immunity Platform: Broadband Internet
Still a Wild West of Anonymity. Need:
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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Secure Digital ID
Packet transparency
ISP Accountability
Far better cybercrime policing
Speed! (100X). Soon speed will be in national interest
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Turnpike analogy: mandated highways, mandated FTTH
© 2008 Accelerating.org
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