Beyond Primary: Making the Case
for Universal Secondary Education
The American Academy of Arts & Sciences’
Project on Universal Basic & Secondary
Education (UBASE)
Joel E. Cohen
Rockefeller & Columbia Universities
cohen@rockefeller.edu
2007-12-18
2007-3-27
Joel E. Cohen
1
Population structures by age & sex,
more & less developed regions, 2005
Less developed regions,
5.3 billion
~0% live on <$2/day.
~53% live on <$2/day.
Male
300 200 100
Female
0
More developed regions,
1.2 billion
Age
100 200 300
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
300
Female
100
100
300
United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
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Joel E. Cohen
Chen & Ravaillon, WPS 3341 World Bank 2004, estimates for year 2001.
2
2006
world
population (billion) 6.6
GNP PPP/person
$9,190
% with <$2 / day
42%
% increase/year
1.2%
%15-59 HIV/AIDS 1.0%
infant mortality rate 0.052
children/woman
2.7
life expectancy (y) 67
% urban
48%
people/km2
49
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rich
1.2
$27,790
0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.006
1.6
77
77%
24
poor
5.3
$4,950
53%
1.5%
1.2%
0.057
2.9
65
41%
64
3
Proposed panaceas
Bigger pie
increase productive capacity
Fewer forks
slow population growth through voluntary
reductions in fertility
reduce unwanted material by-products of
consumption & production
Better manners
reduce violence, corruption, inequities,
barriers to efficiency
Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support? 1995
Educating all children well for 10-12
years could support all 3 approaches.
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Project on Universal Basic &
Secondary Education
(UBASE)
American Academy of
Arts & Sciences
Leslie Berlowitz
Joel E. Cohen &
David E. Bloom,
Co-Directors
1998-2007, phase I
Martin B. Malin, Staff
Director
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Aims of UBASE project
What would the world be like if
all children had 10-12 years of
high-quality education?
(not just primary school)
What would it take to achieve
such a world by 2050 or
sooner?
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Why is education important?
Conventional answers:
Society
Equity
Social
Political
Economic
Individual
Human
Development/
Human Rights
Democracy
Access to
Political Process
Income
Growth
Earnings/
Poverty
Conventional answers neglect:
Population (fertility, health, child survival)
Environment: capacity to cope with change
Gustavo
Bell Lemus. Vice-President & Joel
Defense
Minister of Colombia (1998-2002), 7
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E. Cohen
David E. Bloom, Harvard, & Patricia Craig, IBM Latin America
Why is universal secondary
education important?
Economic: productivity, new technology,
earnings
Source of new teachers for countries with
rapidly expanding access to primary schools
Opportunity & incentive for students who
complete primary school
Demographic impacts: reduced fertility,
improved survival of children
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World population in 2050 depends
on what we do from now to then.
One child difference per
woman means ~3 billion
more or fewer people by
2050.
11.7 const.
10.6 high
9.1 med.
7.7 low
billion.
Almost all increase
will be in cities of
developing countries.
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Joel E. Cohen
UN, World
Population
Prospects:
The 2004
Revision
9
Women who complete secondary school
average at least 1.5 fewer children than those
who complete primary, with cultural differences.
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< 1o
1o compl.
2o completed
Murphy & Carr, Pop Ref Bureau 2007
Demographic & Health Surveys data
Joel E. Cohen
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Children of better educated
mothers die much less
frequently before age 5.
Hannum & Buchmann 2007
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Number of children aged 5-14
billions of children aged 5-14
1.4
world
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
less developed regions
Almost all increases in numbers of
children will be in countries with least
means to fund education.
least developed regions
0.2
more developed regions
0
2000
2010
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Data: UN Pop.Div. 2006
2020
2030
Joel E. Cohen
year
2040
2050
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How much would Universal Basic &
Secondary Education cost?
Answer: Melissa Binder
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Kabul, Afghanistan 2002
13
Costing universal education is hard.
The cost per child who is NOT in school now
probably differs from the cost per child
ALREADY in school.
more remote, poorer, minority, disadvantaged
Access to schooling at present level of quality
may not suffice to induce parents to send
children.
costs of quality improvements, food incentives
Means of education may not be conventional
school.
information centers, homes, work & school
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Cost is not the only problem.
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Other obstacles to UBASE
Economic disincentives. Families value more the time
children spend working for income or handling chores
so other household members can work for pay.
Competing demands. Education competes for scarce
national resources with roads, medical care, & defense.
Lack of information. Internationally comparable, useful
data on quality of 1o & 2o education are lacking.
Political obstacles. Benefits of schooling accrue too
slowly to benefit political incumbents. Violence disrupts
schools.
Cultural barriers. Discrimination inhibits schooling for
girls, linguistic, religious, & ethnic minorities.
Historical context. History of education in a country
affects success of externally imposed solutions.
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5 changes needed
Improve effectiveness & economic efficiency of
education: use data on what & how children learn;
experiment with pedagogical alternatives; learn
from countries that perform best, by region, with
given funding.
Commit to high-quality secondary education for
all.
Recognize diversity of educational systems in
different countries, & adapt aid policies &
educational assessments to local contexts.
Discuss goals of education
nationally, regionally, internationally.
Give education more money & higher priority.
Source: Cohen & Bloom 2005 Finance & Development
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Universal, high-quality primary &
secondary education is achievable
by 2050. Educating all children well
is a worthwhile, affordable, &
achievable strategy to develop
people who can cope with problems
foreseen & unforeseen.
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Thank you!
School in Burkina Faso
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