Beyond Population: Everybody
Counts in Development
Joel E. Cohen
Rockefeller & Columbia Universities
Center for Global Development, Washington, DC, 2008-09-23
Population interacts with
economics, environment & culture.
population
culture
environment
economy
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
2
2008
world
population (billion) 6.7
GNP PPP/person
$9,600
% with <$2 / day
40%
% increase/year
1.2%
%15-59 HIV/AIDS 0.8%
infant mortality rate 0.049
children/woman
2.6
life expectancy (y) 68
% urban
49%
people/km2
49
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
rich
1.2
$31,200
0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.006
1.6
77
74%
27
poor
5.5
$4,760
48%
1.5%
1.0%
0.054
2.8
67
44%
66
3
Less developed regions have a bigger,
younger population, 2005.
Less developed regions,
More developed regions,
Age
5.3 billion
Male
300 200 100
1.2 billion
Female
0
100 200 300
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
300
Female
100
100
300
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
4
Future population trends to 2050
population
culture
economy
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
environment
5
Population from now to 2050
Bigger: 2-4 billion more people by 2050,
mostly in poor countries.
Slower: population growth could end,
depending on choices now.
Older: people 60+ years will outnumber
children 0-4 years.
More urban: added people will be in
cities of poor countries. Rural population
will peak at 3 billion & decline.
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6
1. Bigger (& different)
population in 2050:
2-4 billion more people,
mainly in poor countries.
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7
World population in 2050 depends
on what we do from now to then.
population (billion)
12 One child difference per
woman means ~3 billion
10 more or fewer people by
2050.
8
6
Almost all increase
will be in cities of
developing countries.
4
2
0
1950
1970
UN,2008-09-23
World Population
Prospects: 2006 Revision
1990
2010
year
2030
Joel E. Cohen
11.9 const.
10.8 high
9.2 med.
7.8 low
billion.
2050
8
Women who complete secondary school
average at least 1.5 fewer children than those
who complete primary, with cultural differences.
2008-09-23
< 1o
1o compl.
2o completed
Murphy & Carr, Pop Ref Bureau 2007
Demographic & Health Surveys data
Joel E. Cohen
9
Demography 2000-2050 simplified
Year 2000: 6.1 billion people
Rural 3 billion Urban 3 billion
Year 2050: 9.2 billion people
Rural 3 billion Urban 6 billion
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
10
India’s population size will outgrow China’s.
Africa’s will outgrow India’s & China’s.
2000
past
future
population (millions)
1600
China
1200
Africa
India
800
Europe
400
USA
0
1950
2008-09-23
1970
Chart: Joel E. Cohen, 2007
1990
2010
Joel E. Cohen
year
2030
2050
11
Medium & low projections, UN 2004
medium & low projections
Enough food for 3 billion more?
World grows ~1.9 billion tons of cereal
grains/year, enough to feed ~10 billion
people a vegetarian diet.
About 37-40% of grain is fed to domestic
animals to grow meat for those who
can afford it. Brown 2004 Outgrowing the Earth
Billions are chronically malnourished.
¾ billion are chronically undernourished.
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Joel E. Cohen
12
Rising food prices hurt the poor more.
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13
2. Slower:
population growth could end,
depending on choices now, from
lower fertility or higher mortality.
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Joel E. Cohen
14
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
15
children / woman
Total fertility rate
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
Least
Less
More
World
USA
1970
2008-09-23
“less
developed” excludes
“least developed”
1990
2010
2030
2050
Joel E. Cohen
16
United Nations Population Division, World
year
Population Prospects: 2006 Revision
Total fertility in north Africa
8
children per woman
7
6
Morocco
5
Algeria
4
Tunisia
Libya
3
Egypt
2
1
0
1950
2008-09-23
1960
1970
1980
Joel E. Cohen
United
year
1990
2000
17
Nations Population Division, World
Population Prospects: 2006 Revision
Total fertility in the Middle East
10
9
children per woman
8
7
Turkey
6
Lebanon
5
Jordan
4
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
3
2
1
0
1950
2008-09-23
1960
1970
1980
Joel E. Cohen
United
year
1990
2000
18
Nations Population Division, World
Population Prospects: 2006 Revision
Total fertility in western Asia
9
children per woman
8
7
6
Syria
5
Iraq
Iran
4
Afghanistan
Pakistan
3
2
1
0
1950
2008-09-23
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Joel E. Cohen
19
United Nations Population Division, World
year
Population Prospects: 2006 Revision
Slower growth, slow decline
Current population growth is ~78
million / year.
“Developed” countries absorb 5%,
developing countries 95%.
By 2050, developed countries will
decrease by 1 million persons / year,
developing world will add 35 million /
year.
United Nations Population Division 2005 World Population Prospects: The 2004
Revision, medium variant
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
20
Lower fertility brings smaller families.
People will have fewer siblings,
cousins, aunts, uncles.
Reproduction, child-rearing will occupy
smaller portion of adult life.
Average number of people per
household will decline (unless
patterns of cohabitation change), so
numbers of households will rise faster
than numbers of people.
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21
3. Older:
numbers & fraction of older
people will increase
everywhere, first in rich
countries, then in poor.
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22
From now on, the world will have
fewer young than old people.
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Joel E. Cohen
23
% World Population
People aged 60+ outnumber children aged 0 - 4.
25
20
15
60+ years
0 - 4 years
10
5
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Graph by Joel E. Cohen from
United Nations Population Division estimates and projections (medium variant)
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
24
Child dependency 0-15 / 15-64
100
ratio
80
Least
Less
More
World
USA
60
40
20
0
1950
1970
2008-09-23
“less developed”
excludes
“least developed”
1990
2010
year
Joel E. Cohen
United
2030
2050
25
Nations Population Division, World
Population Prospects: 2006 Revision
Elderly dependency 65+ / 15-64
50
ratio
40
Least
Less
More
World
USA
30
20
10
0
1950
1970
“less2008-09-23
developed” excludes
“least developed”
1990
2010
2030
2050
Joel E. Cohen
26
year
United Nations Population Division, World
Population Prospects: 2006 Revision
A tsunami of population
ageing is on the way.
The number of people 60+ will
nearly triple by 2050.
The number of people 80+ will
more than quadruple by 2050.
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Joel E. Cohen
27
Median age will rise everywhere.
world median age (years)
more developed regions
less developed regions
2000
26.7
37.4
2050
38.1
45.7
24.1
36.9
UN Population Division, World Population Prospects 2006 Revision
Relative increase of elderly is most rapid
in some less developed countries.
Greatest numbers of elderly are in more
developed countries.
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Joel E. Cohen
28
Ageing results from 2 successes:
Lower fertility
Longer life
Fall in fertility contributes more to population
aging than increasing length of life.
If birth rates and death rates remain low,
population aging is irreversible.
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
29
life expectancy
Life expectancy rises with income
per person, up to a point.
90
80
70
60
50
40
Botswana
30 Swaziland
20
10
0
$0
$20,000
2008-09-23
Luxembourg
PRB 2007 estimates
$40,000
Joel E. Cohen
GNI PPP
per person US$
$60,000
30
A given
income buys
more life as
time passes.
Increasing
knowledge?
Better public
health
measures?
World
Bank, World
2008-09-23
Development Report 1993
Joel E. Cohen
31
Life expectancy will increase.
(One hopes.)
life expectancy at birth (both sexes)
90
85
80
Japan
More developed regions
75
70
Russia
65
60
55
World
Less developed regions
50
45
United Nations Population Division
year
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
Joel E. Cohen
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
2008-09-23
1955
1950
40
32
USA elderly disability rates fell 1.5%
per year in last 25 years.
30
25
NLTCS
(65+)
20
Age-Adjusted
15
Rate
NHIS
10
(70+)
5
0
'83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Year
2008-09-23
Sources: NLTCS, Manton, Gu, & Lamb (2006); NHIS, Schoeni,
Freedman, Martin (2006); graph from Robert Schoeni
Joel E. Cohen
33
Japan would have 1.1 million more disabled people
65+ in 2002 if disability prevalence had not fallen
Figure 1. Number of disabled Japanese if disability prevalence had not improved
since 1993.
8.0
If disability rate
had not changed since 1993
7.0
6.0
5.5
Millions of
disabled aged 4.0
65 and older
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.0
6.9
Actual
5.3
4.7
3.0
Sources: NLTCS, Manton, Gu, & Lamb (2006); NHIS, Schoeni,
Freedman, Martin (2006); graph from Robert Schoeni
2.0
1.0
Total population aged 65 and older in each year (in millions)
19.0
21.2
16.9
23.6
0.0
'93
2008-09-23
Source:
As for Table 1.
'94
'95
'96
'97
Joel E. Cohen
Year
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
34
Top 15 people-killers in 2002,
by disease or injury
1. Ischaemic heart
disease
2. Cerebrovascular
disease
3. Lower respiratory
infections
4. HIV/AIDS
5. COPD
6. Perinatal conditions
7. Diarrhoeal diseases
8. Tuberculosis
2008-09-23
9. Trachea, bronchus,
lung cancers
10. Road traffic accidents
11. Diabetes mellitus
12. Malaria
13. Hypertensive heart
disease
14. Self-inflicted injuries
15. Stomach cancer
Mathers & Loncar PLOS Medicine 2006
Joel E. Cohen
35
Tobacco is responsible for about
1 death in 10.
million deaths / year
tobacco
6
HIV / AIDS 3
tuberculosis 2
malaria
1
Mathers & Loncar PLOS 2006; The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
36
“Tobacco … world’s leading
preventable cause of death”
“The consumption of cigarettes and other
tobacco products and exposure to
tobacco smoke are the world’s leading
preventable cause of death, responsible
for about 5 million deaths in 2003,
mostly in poor countries and poor
populations. The toll will double in 20
years unless known and effective
interventions are urgently and widely
adopted.” World Health Report 2003:
Shaping the Future (WHO).
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Joel E. Cohen
37
Tobacco: poor people smoke,
poorest smoke most
Smoking rates have declined in high-income
countries.
Smoking rates have increased sharply in
many low-income & middle-income
countries.
Smoking rates are untouched by public
health measures in poorest nations.
Feldman & Bayer, eds. Unfiltered: Conflicts over
Tobacco Policy and Public Health. 2004
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38
4. More
urban:
virtually all
population
growth will be in
cities of poor
countries.
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39
People are concentrated in cities.
Half of all people (more than 3 billion) live in cities
on less than 3% of censused land area
> 500 people/km2,
> 1 person/(45m x 45m).
Least densely populated half of Earth’s censused
land area has less than 2% of people,
< 10 people/km2.
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Joel E. Cohen
40
Most urban people live in small cities.
Approximately 51% of all urban dwellers
in the world in 2005 lived in cities with
fewer than 500,000 people.
United Nations Population Division
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
41
Urban populations, 2000
Asia’s urban population exceeded
that of Africa, Europe, Latin America
and Caribbean combined.
2008-09-23
Africa’s urban population
exceeded that of North America and
Joel E. Cohen
Oceania combined.
42
From 2007- 2008 on, world will have
more urban people than rural.
rural
rural
urban
2008-09-23
Joel2003
E. Cohen
UN, World Urbanization Prospects
43
Urban population will grow faster
in less developed regions.
Less developed, urban
Less developed, rural
More developed, urban
More developed, rural
UN, World Urbanization Prospects
2008-09-23
Joel E.2003
Cohen
44
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
Montgomery et al. 2003
Total fertility rates decline
from rural to urban areas.
45
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
Montgomery et al. 2003
Modern contraceptive use increases
from rural to urban areas.
46
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
Montgomery et al. 2003
Unmet need for contraception is
greatest in rural & small urban areas.
47
Cities will face unprecedented
confluence of rapid increase
in total numbers of people and
numbers of elderly people.
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48
Cities old & new need to be
designed to accommodate
increasing numbers of the elderly.
Home, work, shopping
should be nearby.
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Joel E. Cohen
49
Cities have environmental impacts.
Cities located on coasts & at river
mouths affect wetlands & coastal &
offshore fisheries.
Many cities (~3% of land) are located
on prime agricultural land (~10% of
land). If urban area doubles with
doubled population, food production
could hurt.
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50
Michiko
Shimoda,
2008-09-23
Rice field, Fuji City 2005
Joel E. Cohen
51
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
Michiko Shimoda,
Fuji City 2005
52
20 “urban agglomerations” had
more than 10 million people in 2005.
On coast or coastal river (15)
Tokyo
New York-Newark
Mumbai
Shanghai
Kolkata
Buenos Aires
Dhaka
Jakarta
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana
Karachi
Rio de Janeiro
Osaka-Kobe
Al-Qahirah (Cairo)
Lagos
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
Manila
Inland (5)
Ciudad de México
São Paulo
Delhi
Beijing
Moskva
53
New Haven
Montauk
New York City
Long Beach
Sea Level +1M
Atlantic City
2008-09-23
Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona
Joel E. Cohen
Wildwood
from Sassen & Schroeder
54
Weiss & Overpeck
University of Arizona
from Sassen & Schroeder
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
55
Population interacts with
economics, environment & culture.
population
culture
environment
economy
2008-09-23
Joel E. Cohen
56
Further information
Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth
Support? (W. W. Norton, NY, 1995)
Cohen, Human population: the next half
century. Science 302:1172-1175, 14 Nov.
2003
Cohen, Human population grows up.
Scientific American special issue
“Crossroads for Planet Earth” September
2005.
Cohen, Bloom, Malin, Educating All Children:
A Global AgendaJoel(MIT
2008-09-23
E. Cohen Press, 2007)
57