Joint SA-SEAP Ozone Officers Network Meeting
Pattaya, Thailand
15-18 October 2012
CHALLENGES FOR HCFC PHASE-OUT
IN AIR CONDITIONING
BACKGROUND
 HCFC phase-out in developing countries has started.
Short/medium term targets: Freeze in 2013, 10%
reductions from 2015, 35% reductions from 2020.
 HCFC-22 is the predominant refrigerant used in airconditioners in developing countries
 Consumption of HCFC-22 in manufacturing and
servicing of air-conditioners in major developing
countries is significant (typically >70% of total HCFC
consumption) and growing rapidly
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MARKET FOR AIR-CONDITIONERS
 Market for air-conditioners growing rapidly in developing
countries – low baseline market penetration
 Estimated HCFC-22 based room air-conditioner sales
(2011) in key developing countries in Asia-Pacific:
Country
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
2011 Sales
~36 million
3.30 million
1.40 million
1.00 million
0.75 million
1.25 million
0.50 million
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MARKET FOR AIR CONDITIONERS (CONT’D)
 By 2020, market for air-conditioners in Asia-Pacific could
reach >100 million units and sales >US$ 20 billion
 By 2025, ~1 billion city dwellers will “enter the global
consuming class”: an air-conditioner would be their first
purchase*
 Most booming cities are in tropical climates
 Refrigerant charge volumes for new air-conditioners
sold in Asia-Pacific (developing countries in 2011)
estimated at ~50,000 metric tonnes annually(!)
____________________________
* McKinsey Global Initiative
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ENERGY USE
 Electricity use for air conditioning in some cities with
tropical weather:
o
o
o
o
o
Bangkok, Thailand – 60%
Delhi, India – 55%
Miami, USA – 40%
Mumbai, India – 50%
And the list goes on …….
 Electricity use for air conditioning at the national level
can range from <5% (temperate zones) to over 80%
(some tropical/equatorial island states)
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DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMISSIONS
 Global air-conditioner population is estimated at about
500 million to 1 billion (and growing)!!
 Use HCFCs or HFCs as refrigerants, both high GWP
gases
 Each air-conditioner contains average 1-1.5 kg of
refrigerant and has 1.5 to 4 kw connected electrical load
 Annual direct and indirect CO2 emissions from air
conditioners globally, could be between 1 to 4 gt (1 to 4
billion CO2-eq tonnes)!!!
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BACKGROUND (CONT’D)
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BACKGROUND (CONT’D)
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BACKGROUND (CONT’D)
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BACKGROUND (CONT’D)
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TECHNOLOGY
 Need for lifecycle management approach in technology
selection
Manufacturing
Use
End of Life
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TECHNOLOGY
 MOP Decision XIX/6 urges maximizing climate benefits
when phasing out HCFCs
 Lifecycle CO2 emissions from air-conditioners are 6095% indirect and 5-40% direct. In developing countries
direct emissions are higher due to local conditions
 Both energy use and refrigerant GWP are critical
considerations to maximize climate benefits
 Currently there is no perfect alternative for HCFC-22.
HFC and HC candidates involve compromises and
trade-offs
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TECHNOLOGY (CONT’D)
 R-410A (GWP = 2,088*) has been the preferred
alternative in developed country markets since ~2000.
 Population of air-conditioners with R-410A is already
about 200 million (Dec 2010), mostly in developed
countries: about 200,000 metric tonnes of R-410A in
banks and increasing!
 R-410A energy-efficiency performance in general and in
high-ambient conditions in particular
 Is R-410A a sustainable alternative for minimizing
adverse climate impacts?
____________________________
* IPCC 4th Assessment Report
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KEY ISSUES AND CONCERNS
 Reducing HCFC-22 consumption in developing
countries without clear technology and policy signals,
will result in unintended and adverse climate impacts
 For example, if developing countries prohibit HCFC-22
based air-conditioners (manufacturing and imports),
automatic technology choice is likely to be R-410A.
 Major developed-country technology providers showing
preference for R-410A (e.g. R&D focus on optimizing R410 systems and components, new products based on
R-410A etc.)
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KEY ISSUES AND CONCERNS
 Significant expansion of HFC production facilities
 Extensive introduction of high-GWP technologies will
lead to rapid increase in population of air-conditioners in
developing countries, based on these technologies
 Considering prospective developing country markets by
2020, the net climate impact of HCFC phase-out with
high-GWP technology, is most likely to be negative!
 A better, more forward-looking and climate-conscious
approach to alternatives is needed!
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WAY FORWARD
What can industry do?
 Introduce and promote low-GWP, energy-efficient
alternatives (R-32, R-290, others) on priority
 Support sustained R&D for new, better and safer
molecules for substituting HCFC-22, as well as
optimized components (e.g. compressors).
 Cooperate with MP panels and implementing agencies
for sharing and disseminating latest technologies (e.g.
demonstration projects, technology workshops)
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WAY FORWARD
What can developing country governments do?
 Support incentives for better alternatives
 Support policies that ensure level playing field for the
industry players
‘
 Involve industry
regulations
in
formulation
of
policies
and
 Support targeted and clear regulations that take into
account GWP and energy efficiency
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Direct Emission
Reductions (lowGWP alternatives)
MLF
FUNDING
Indirect Emission
Reductions (EE
improvements)
GEF/
BILATERAL/
PRIVATE-SECTOR
FUNDING
Montreal Protocol
Measures (HCFC
Phase-out)
Maximum climate impact
WHAT WE ARE DOING
Design interventions with dual objectives of
ozone and climate protection
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THANK YOU!
Comments, suggestions and questions welcome
http://www.undp.org/chemicals/montrealprotocol.htm
nandan.chirmulay@undp.org
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