ENERGY
FUTURES
R EA SONS TO B E C HEER F UL ?
ROYSTON SEL L MA N
Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own plans for the Severn Barrage - 1849
ABOUT ME
Physicist
• learnt to program computers (1974)
• seemed easier than physics
Programmer
• building models of things on computers
• sewage plant, epidemics, domestic energy use (1982)
Research at Apple and Hewlett Packard
• 2 or 3 years on Sustainability
Now work at Centre for Sustainable Energy in Bristol
• modelling government energy policies on computers
• currently researching how Smart Meters can help save energy
ASSUMPTIONS
Human-made Global Warming is real
• Will disrupt many systems (Agriculture, Transport, Health)
• Will be cheaper to reduce GHG emissions than to adapt to
warming on reasonable timescales
• We’ve already done some damage: “Past and future
anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to
warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the
timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere”
IPCC Summary for Policymakers
ASSUMPTIONS
Peak Oil is happening
There is lots of Coal and Gas
Goal is to get to zero carbon by 2050
To run our societies off renewable energy is more
elegant than burning fossil fuels or nuclear fission
PERSPECTIVES
THE
PROBLEM
THE PROBLEM
THE PROBLEM
CAN WE DO IT?
Car
200
Flights
150
Heating
Cooling 100
Lighting
Food
50
Goods &
Gadgets
0
Consumption (kWh per day)
CAN WE DO IT?
Car
200
200
Flights
Solar
Thermal
Solar PV
150
Heating
Cooling 100
Lighting
Food
50
Goods &
Gadgets
0
150
100
50
0
Biomass
(all)
Wind
(All)
Tidal &
Wave
Consumption (kWh per day) Renewables (kWh per day)
CAN WE DO IT?
CAN WE DO IT?
Car
200
200
Flights
Solar
Thermal
Solar PV
150
Heating
Cooling 100
Lighting
Food
50
Goods &
Gadgets
0
150
100
50
0
Biomass
(all)
Wind
(All)
Tidal &
Wave
Consumption (kWh per day) Renewables (kWh per day)
CAN WE DO IT?
Car
200
200
Flights
Solar
Thermal
Solar PV
150
Heating
Cooling 100
Lighting
Food
50
Goods &
Gadgets
0
150
100
50
0
Biomass
(all)
Wind
(All)
Tidal &
Wave
Consumption (kWh per day) Renewables (kWh per day)
CAN WE DO IT?
Car
200
200
Flights
Solar
Thermal
Solar PV
150
Heating
Cooling 100
Lighting
Food
50
Goods &
Gadgets
0
150
100
50
0
Biomass
(all)
Wind
(All)
Tidal &
Wave
Consumption (kWh per day) Renewables (kWh per day)
HE WHO TELLS YOU HE KNOWS THE FUTURE IS
LYING, EVEN IF HE TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT –
THE KORAN
WHAT WILL
HAPPEN?
NREAP
National Renewable Energy Action Plan
• The Coalition’s Fairly Ambitious Renewables Target
• 15% of UK Energy from Renewables by 2020
• 30% Reduction in GHG Emissions
Assumes we electrify our energy mix
Prodigious amounts of Wind
• Over a third of the total
NREAP
One Fifth is Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
• Not very clear where the fuel will come from
Expecting a lot from Heat Pumps
• I believe in the physics but…
• Expensive – can they catalyse electrification of energy use?
• We need hard data on these in the UK
EFFICIENCY IN
HOUSING
New Build
• BREEAM
• PassivHaus
Old Build
• Insulate, Insulate, Insulate
• Hard to treat houses (e.g. most of Edale)
• Solid wall insulation – internal and external
Draught Proofing
Boilers
Lighting
• Incandescent → Compact Flourescent → LED
EFFICIENCY IN
INDUSTRY
The Big Three:
• Steel
• Cement
• Chemicals
SMART 2020 Report
• 15% cut across the board by 2020 through improved use of IT
Cradle-to-Cradle Design
• Beyond recycling
EFFICIENCY IN
INDUSTRY
Number four emitter: Paper & Pulp Industry
Potential
GHG
Emissions
Savings:
120 Million
tonnes per
year
EFFICIENCY IN
TRANSPORT, FOOD
Electric Vehicles
• Grid Power is more efficient than internal combustion engine
• Regenerative Braking
Air Travel
• Air Passenger Duty does not incentivise efficiency
• Duty on Jet Fuel?
Food
•
•
•
•
•
Waste is huge
Beef, Lamb are Energy Intensive
Pork and Cheese lower and about the same
Chicken can be about the same as tomatoes
GM Crops?
SOLAR
PHOTOVOLTAIC
Learning Rate = 19% per doubling of production
Now
probably
under $1.50
per Watt
Production is doubling every 2 years
WIND
NREAP Goal is 117 TWh/year by 2020 ~4kWh per person per
day (ppd)
Other studies point a way to 20kWh ppd
Learning Rate also 18% (similar to PV but production only
doubles every 2.5 years to 2020)
BIOFUEL
Not Ethanol – neither non-cellulosic nor cellulosic
• Problematic even from sugar cane
Burning Our Waste
• Problems of location
Some Wood
• Can be good locally
• Pellets from wood waste
MICROGENERATION
IN YOUR OWN HOME
Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
• 4kWp (peak) now under £10,000 (~10 kWh per day)
• expect further big price falls (I am waiting for £1 per Watt)
• in future: integrate with Electric Vehicle e.g. 30 million cars at
50kWh = 1500GWh of electricity storage
Solar Thermal
PVT (Photovoltaic and Thermal)
FIT (Feed In Tariff)
RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive)
CHP?
Combined Heat and Power
OK in District Heating Schemes
• Not domestic CHP boilers
“Rejected heat from power stations could meet UK heating needs”
• Qualified yes from old power stations
• Not from new. Better to use it to generate more electricity
Check out the National Heat Map!
THE NATIONAL HEAT MAP
http://ceo.decc.gov.uk/nationalheatmap/
IT’S 2020.
HOW ARE WE DOING?
Car
200
200
Flights
Solar
Thermal
Solar PV
150
Heating
Cooling 100
Lighting
Food
50
Goods &
Gadgets
0
150
100
50
0
Biomass
(all)
Wind
(All)
Tidal &
Wave
Consumption (kWh per day) Renewables (kWh per day)
WHAT
COULD
POSSIBLY
GO WRONG?
THE JEVONS
PARADOX
William Stanley Jevons: if the efficiency with which a
resource is consumed increases, then consumption of that
resource tends to increase
Could be a concern as we electrify our energy mix
Current UK wind energy now essential but has not reduced
our FF burn
GAS GLUT
Natural Gas price has halved in the US from 2 years ago
• Back to dollar price of 2002
• Global effect
Caused by over-production, partly from fracking
• Use this to counter fracking here in UK
Affects economics of investment in other energy sources
• particularly renewables
Could last to 2030 or beyond (estimates very vague)
COAL LEARNING RATE ??
Being used to justify
investment in CCS –
Carbon Capture and
Sequestration
FOSSIL FUELS ARE
STILL CHEAP
Real costs are hidden, you can’t see greenhouse gases
They are subsidised
• UK mostly through tax (8% VAT)
• But also tax credits for much investment
• Airline fuel almost tax-free
Renewables tend to have higher CAPEX but lower OPEX and
environmental cost than fossil fuels
• Have to overcome the barrier to entry
• Offshore wind subsidy is about 7 pence / kWh
We need a carbon price
THE INCUMBENTS
ARE POWERFUL
They have had 150 years of close working with government
• entanglement is often complex (GazProm, EDF etc)
Mostly regulated industries
•
•
•
•
Clumsy
Many barriers to innovation
Skewed market conditions
Obsolete infrastructure
Renewables have a mountain to climb
THE ENERGY INCUMBENTS ARE POWERFUL
TALK THEIR
LANGUAGE
MACC, ERIC AND REF
This is a MACC:
MACC, ERIC AND REF
This is an ERIC:
I WENT TO PRISON
This is what an ERIC can do:
Santa Rita Jail
Alameda County
California
ASK THE REF 1
Renewable Energy Finance
•
•
•
•
Big financial companies are watching
CAPEX & OPEX go topsy-turvy
Justify CAPEX on basis of OPEX
Optimise Production and Investment Tax Credits for
renewables
Use Future Savings and Constant OPEX as a principle
•
•
•
•
Keep bills constant, fund renewables from future savings
Green Deal: Imperfect prototype
Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) flip-flop has been disaster
Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)
ASK THE REF 2
When politicians go flopsy-wopsy
• Demand stability
• Parity with fossil fuel burners
• Use equivalent financial arguments
For Example
• Question CAPEX, OPEX, ITCs and Carbon Credit of CCS
where the CO2 is used to recover more oil
HOW TO MAKE IT GO
RIGHT
Behaviour
• Back to my tank: it made me change
Japan
• Post-Fukushima “Setsuden”
• Consumption 20% off peak
• Wind & PV could replace 60% of turned off nuclear by 2020
• Shaking up their big power companies (even worse than ours)
• FIT driving 148GWp of renewables by 2030 (about 15kWh ppd)
Develop Pro-Renewable Arguments
• Wading birds or Severn Barrage?
• Are Wind Turbines ugly?
Talk their language MACC, ERIC, IRR, PTC, ITC
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
NUCLEAR?
WHY I’M AGAINST A
NUCLEAR SOLUTION 1
Government should aim primarily to get us to
Consumption/Renewables balance
• Economic forces will keep the lights on (primarily using gas)
Nuclear Risk?
• Radiation: Fukushima spent fuel nearly caught fire
• Cost: How much to make Fukushima reactors safe?
UK would need a new reactor fleet
• Need “breeder” reactors, cost unproven
• £2 billion per year current fleet decommissioning
Government can fund research (e.g. Thorium reactors)
WHY I’M AGAINST A
NUCLEAR SOLUTION 2
Nuclear Fusion
• ZETA →
• ITER - €1.4 billion per year EU project
AT LAST THE END
THANK YOU!