Module VI
Understanding Systems
System Behavior
Learning Objectives
• System Behavior and Structure
–Why we should care
–What system structure is
–Strategies to identify system structure
Events-oriented view of the world
Source: Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world
(Vol. 19). Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
Pattern-oriented view of the world
Source: Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world
(Vol. 19). Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
More structural view of the world…
Source: Adapted from Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a
complex world (Vol. 19). Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
Systems view of the world…
Source: Adapted from Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a
complex world (Vol. 19). Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
The Beehive Metaphor
Pattern
Event
System
The Beehive Metaphor
What could the organization do differently?
What could an individual do differently?
How can we better understand the changes we’ve made?
System Structure
• System structure is not readily visible
• Information is essential to identifying system
structure
• Successful change requires system-level
understanding
• System structure influences behavior
System Structure
• System structure is not readily visible
• Information is essential to identifying system
structure
• Successful change requires system-level
understanding
• System structure influences behavior
How We See Systems
Mental Models:
Our beliefs about system structure may or may
not reflect true system structure.
Revise
Model
Act
Observe
Mental Models: Language
The power of language in shaping mental
models:
“Pilot” was only supported for a short term trial
VS
“Project” implied beginning work that would be
sustained
Mental Models
Topic
“Fighting
Fires”
management
style
Mental Model
Actions
Putting out
“fires” at work
makes me feel
important – like I
have really
accomplished
something today.
Look for fires.
Act in a reactive,
rather than
proactive manner.
Manage day to day
rather than
strategically.
Encourage
employees to
depend on the
manager to solve
problems.
Alternative
Mental Model
If I am constantly
putting out
“fires”, there
must be work or
management
processes that
are not working
well.
Actions
Prevent problems rather
than react to problems
in the workplace.
Improve work processes
rather than continually
treat symptoms of
process breakdowns.
Encourage employees to
solve problems and
participate in
improvement efforts.
Mental Models
• “Information is power”
• “Teens should abstain from sex”
• “Better health technology is the
path to a healthy society”
• “Data are the foundation of performance
improvement”
• “Promote safe, protected sexual activity”
• “Prevention is the path to a healthy
society”
System Structure
• System structure is not readily visible
• Information is essential to identifying system
structure
• Successful change requires system-level
understanding
• System structure influences behavior
Child Fatality Reviews
• Child fatality reviews are one example of how
system structure cannot be identified without
information
• Data on child fatalities are collected from
multiple sources and reviewed by experts
from multiple disciplines
• By dedicating a group of people to review
shared data on child fatalities over time, we
allow them to develop a memory of system
behavior, and to uncover system structure
Mental Models
Focus:
Events
Investigate
child fatalities,
one at a time.
Actions
After
investigation is
complete,
determine any
“fault” and
take
appropriate
action.
Focus:
Patterns
Investigate
patterns in
child fatalities
over time.
Actions
If we see a
“cluster of
events” or
increasing
trend linked to
a certain
neighborhood,
institution, or
race/ethnic
group we will
figure out how
to minimize
risk moving
forward.
Focus:
System
Structure
Look for
patterns, and
attempt to
understand
events from a
systems
thinking
perspective.
Actions
With a much
deeper
understanding
of what
underlies
avoidable child
fatalities, we
can bring
community
stakeholders
together to
address causes
and prevent
future events
efficiently.
System Structure
• System structure is not readily visible
• Information is essential to identifying
systemic structure
• Successful change requires system-level
understanding
• System structure influences behavior
Going Below the Waterline
• Recognize the power of language
• Surface and reframe mental models within and outside
your organization
• Recognize the impact of past events on current
circumstances
• Reduce silos
• Build communication mechanisms across organization
compartments (and outside our organization!)
• Make information widely available
• Present data in graphs to identify trends and patterns
• Remember that systems never stop behaving, and ripple
effects matter!
System Structure
• System structure is not readily visible
• Information is essential to identifying system
structure
• Successful change requires system-level
understanding
• System structure influences behavior
Structure and Behavior
21
Building Blocks
• Variables
number of nursing
school graduates
• Causal
Links/Arrows
S
supply of
registered nurses
retirement rate of
nurses
O
• Signs
22
Feedback Loops
trust in medical
O
establishment by
substance-addicted women
S
number of women
receiving treatment for
their addiction
number of laws increasing the
negative consequences for women
who give birth to substance-exposed
infants
S
R
number of infants born
substance-exposed
O
System Archetypes
•
•
•
•
Limits to Growth
Success to the Successful
Fixes that Fail
Shifting the Burden
Limits to Growth
• A system is increasing consistently
• Then suddenly stops growing and might
even crash
• An unforeseen limiting factor finally
reigned in the growth; unless the limiting
factor is removed the system will not
grow past that peak
Limits to Growth
Number of people
smoking
S
Cap: Unacceptable number of
deaths from lung cancer prompt
research into causes
R
S
Public perception that
smoking is acceptable
O
B
S
S
Number of public
health messages
about the danger of
smoking
26
Success to the Successful
• Two or more organizations/methods/agents
are competing for a limited resource (like
funding or time)
• The allocation of that resource is based on
past successes
• But success is only possible if you have
resources
• Whichever organization initially succeeds will
have more and more resources allocated to it
Success to the Successful
Success of
formula feeding
S
R
S
Choosing formula
over breastfeeding
O
R
O
Success of
breastfeeding
Source: Michael R Goodman. "Applying
Systems Thinking and Common
Archetypes to Organizational Issues”.
www.iseesystems.com/Online_training
Fixes that Fail
• Quick-fix solution is applied to a problem
• Resolves the problem in the short term
• Unintended consequences of the quick fix
make the problem worse in the long term
Intersecting Loops
S
number of nursing
school graduates S
supply of
registered nurses
S
B
O
shortage of
registered nurses
R
real earnings of
nursing
S
O
supply of nurse
educators
The Fix that Fails…
S
number of nursing
S
school graduates
supply of
registered nurses
S
B
O
R
shortage of
registered nurses
real earnings of
nursing
S
RN retention grants
S
O
supply of nurse
educators
31
Shifting the Burden
• Choice between solving a problem by treating
the symptoms or applying a fundamental
solution (i.e. root cause)
• Symptomatic relief of the problem reduces
pressure to apply a fundamental solution
• Over time, side effects of the symptomatic
solution undermines the ability to apply the
fundamental solution
Shifting the Burden
S
requirements that
research has to be
conducted on DSM
disorders rather than
symptoms
number of new
disorders added to the
DSM
S
B
S
knowledge about how
to treat symptoms
O
S
number of patients
presenting with an array
of mental health
symptoms that cannot
be treated
B
research conducted to
S
understand biological basis
of symptoms
Lessons Learned
• Break the cycle
• Anticipate and prepare for delayed
consequences
• Anticipate and manage possible
unintended consequences elsewhere in
the system
Learning Objectives
• System Structure
– Why we should care
– What system structure is
– Strategies to identify system structure
• Common and important system structure
– Diagramming system structure using causal loop
diagrams
– Foundational cycles
– System archetypes
– Using causal loop diagrams to improve quality