Chapter Six Capital Allocation to Risky Assets INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright © 2014 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Chapter Overview • Risk aversion and its estimation • Two-step process of portfolio construction • Composition of risky portfolio • Capital allocation between risky and risk-free assets • Passive strategies and the capital market line (CML) 6-2 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Risk and Risk Aversion Speculation Gamble • Taking considerable risk for a commensurate gain • Bet on an uncertain outcome for enjoyment • Parties have heterogeneous expectations 6-3 • Parties assign the same probabilities to the possible outcomes INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Risk and Risk Aversion • Utility Values • Investors are willing to consider: • Risk-free assets • Speculative positions with positive risk premiums • Portfolio attractiveness increases with expected return and decreases with risk • What happens when return increases with risk? 6-4 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Table 6.1 Available Risky Portfolios Each portfolio receives a utility score to assess the investor’s risk/return trade off 6-5 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Risk Aversion and Utility Values • Utility Function • • • • • U = Utility E(r) = Expected return on the asset or portfolio A = Coefficient of risk aversion σ2 = Variance of returns ½ = A scaling factor 2 1 U E r A 2 6-6 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Table 6.2 Utility Scores of Portfolios with Varying Degrees of Risk Aversion 6-7 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Estimating Risk Aversion • Use questionnaires • Observe individuals’ decisions when confronted with risk • Observe how much people are willing to pay to avoid risk 6-8 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Estimating Risk Aversion • Mean-Variance (M-V) Criterion • Portfolio A dominates portfolio B if: ErA ErB and A B 6-9 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Capital Allocation Across Risky and Risk-Free Portfolios • Asset Allocation • The choice among broad asset classes that represents a very important part of portfolio construction • The simplest way to control risk is to manipulate the fraction of the portfolio invested in risk-free assets versus the portion invested in the risky assets 6-10 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Basic Asset Allocation Example Total market value Risk-free money market fund $300,000 $90,000 Equities Bonds (long-term) Total risk assets $113,400 $96,600 $210,000 $113,400 WE 0.54 $210,000 6-11 $96,600 WB 0.46 $210,00 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Basic Asset Allocation Example Let • y = Weight of the risky portfolio, P, in the complete portfolio • (1-y) = Weight of risk-free assets $210,000 y 0.7 $300,000 $113,400 E: .378 $300,000 6-12 $90,000 1 y 0.3 $300,000 $96,600 B: .322 $300,000 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS The Risk-Free Asset • Only the government can issue default-free securities • A security is risk-free in real terms only if its price is indexed and maturity is equal to investor’s holding period • T-bills viewed as “the” risk-free asset • Money market funds also considered risk-free in practice 6-13 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Figure 6.3 Spread Between 3-Month CD and T-bill Rates 6-14 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Portfolios of One Risky Asset and a Risk-Free Asset • It’s possible to create a complete portfolio by splitting investment funds between safe and risky assets • Let • y = Portion allocated to the risky portfolio, P • (1 - y) = Portion to be invested in risk-free asset, F 6-15 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS One Risky Asset and a Risk-Free Asset: Example rf = 7% E(rp) = 15% rf = 0% p = 22% • The expected return on the complete portfolio: E rc 7 y15 7 • The risk of the complete portfolio: C y P 22 y 6-16 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS One Risky Asset and a Risk-Free Asset: Example • Rearrange and substitute y = σC/σP: C 8 E rC rf E rP rf 7 C P 22 Slope 6-17 E rP rf P 8 22 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Figure 6.4 The Investment Opportunity Set 6-18 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Portfolios of One Risky Asset and a Risk-Free Asset • Capital allocation line with leverage • Lend at rf = 7% and borrow at rf = 9% • Lending range slope = 8/22 = 0.36 • Borrowing range slope = 6/22 = 0.27 • CAL kinks at P 6-19 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Figure 6.5 The Opportunity Set with Differential Borrowing and Lending Rates 6-20 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation • The investor must choose one optimal portfolio, C, from the set of feasible choices • Expected return of the complete portfolio: E rc r f y E rp r f • Variance: y 2 c 6-21 2 2 p INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Table 6.4 Utility Levels for Various Positions in Risky Assets 6-22 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Figure 6.6 Utility as a Function of Allocation to the Risky Asset, y 6-23 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Table 6.5 Spreadsheet Calculations of Indifference Curves 6-24 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Figure 6.7 Indifference Curves for U = .05 and U = .09 with A = 2 and A = 4 6-25 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Figure 6.8 Finding the Optimal Complete Portfolio 6-26 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Table 6.6 Expected Returns on Four Indifference Curves and the CAL 6-27 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Passive Strategies: The Capital Market Line • The passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect security analysis • Supply and demand forces may make such a strategy a reasonable choice for many investors • A natural candidate for a passively held risky asset would be a well-diversified portfolio of common stocks such as the S&P 500 6-28 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Passive Strategies: The Capital Market Line • The Capital Market Line (CML) • Is a capital allocation line formed investment in two passive portfolios: 1. Virtually risk-free short-term T-bills (or a money market fund) 2. Fund of common stocks that mimics a broad market index 6-29 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Passive Strategies: The Capital Market Line • From 1926 to 2012, the passive risky portfolio offered an average risk premium of 8.1% with a standard deviation of 20.48%, resulting in a reward-to-volatility ratio of .40 6-30 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS