Chapter 2 Analysis of Solvency, Liquidity, and Financial Flexibility Order Placed Order Received Sale Cash Received Accounts Collection < Inventory > < Receivable > < Float > Time ==> Accounts < Payable > Invoice Received Disbursement < Float > Payment Cash Sent Paid Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Learning Objectives To develop an understanding of liquidity Differentiate between solvency and liquidity ratios Conduct a liquidity analysis Assess a firm’s financial flexibility position Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Financial Statements Basic Source of Information Balance Sheet Income Statement Statement of Cash Flows Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Solvency Measures Current Ratio Quick Ratio Net Working Capital Net Liquid Balance Working Capital Requirements Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Current Ratio Current assets Current ratio = ------------------------Current liabilities $15,338 Current ratio = ------------ = 1.54 $9,973 Current ratio 1991 1.61 1992 1.71 1993 1.51 1994 1.64 1995 1.54 Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Quick Ratio Current assets - Inventories Quick ratio = ------------------------------------Current liabilities $15,338 - $14,064 Quick ratio = ------------------------ = .13 $9,973 Quick ratio 1991 .15 1992 .24 1993 .14 1994 .15 1995 .13 Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Net Working Capital Net working capital = CA - CL Net working capital = $15,338 - $9,973 = $5,365 ($000,000) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Net working capital $2,425 $3,571 $3,444 $4,709 $5,365 Grant’s NWC averaged about $371 million Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company NWC and its Component Parts CA CL CA CL CA Cash Cash Cash Mkt Sec Mkt Sec Mkt Sec CL A/R A/P A/R A/P A/R A/P Inventory N/P Inventory N/P Inventory N/P Prepaid CMLTD Prepaid CMLTD Prepaid CMLTD NWC = CA - CL Net Working Capital WCR = A/R + INV +Pre - A/P Working Capital Requirements Copyright NLB = Cash + M/S - N/P - CMLTD Net Liquid Balance 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Working Capital Requirements ($900+$14,064+$329) - ($5,907+$365+$1,819) WCR/S = ----------------------------------------------------------$82,494 $7,202 = ----------- = .09 $82,494 WCR/S 1991 .09 1992 .09 1993 .09 1994 .10 1995 .09 Grant’s WCR/S ratio averaged Copyright.42 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Net Liquid Balance Net liquid balance = Cash + Equiv. - (N/P + CMLTD) Net liquid balance = $45 - ($1,795 + $87) = ($1,837) ($000,000) Net liquid balance 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 ($413) ($463) ($1,636) ($1,626) ($1,837) Grant’s NLB ran at a deficit Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company What is Liquidity? Ingredients – – – Time Amount Cost Definition – Having enough financial resources to cover financial obligations in a timely manner with minimal costs Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company What is Liquidity Examples (Ludeman) Amount and trend of internal cash flow Aggregate available credit lines Attractiveness of firm’s commercial paper and other financial instruments Overall expertise of management Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Liquidity Measures Cash Flow From Operations (narrow) Cash Conversion Period (narrow) Current Liquidity Index (narrow) Lambda (broad) Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Cash Flow From Operations Wal - Mart’s Cash Flow From Operations ($ Billions) CFFO or OCF 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 $1.29 $1.37 $1.27 $2.19 $2.91 W.T. Grant’s CFFO was a deficit for 8 of its last 10 years. Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Cash Conversion Chart Inventory stocked Inventory sold Days inventory held Days payables outstanding Cash received Days sales outstanding Cash conversion period Cash disbursed Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Cash Conversion Period Calculations (Wal-Mart) Cash conversion period = DIH + DSO - DPO (Days) DIH DSO 1991 84.02 6.10 ------Operating cycle 90.12 DPO 38.46 ------Cash conversion period 51.66 1992 78.55 9.15 -----87.70 36.74 ------50.96 1993 77.68 5.51 -----83.19 32.46 ------50.73 1994 1995 76.40 79.57 4.87 3.98 ------ -----81.27 83.55 28.47 33.42 ------- ------52.80 50.13 Grant’s cash conversion period exceeded 200 days! Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company How Much Liquidity is Enough? Solvency - a stock or balance perspective Liquidity - a flow perspective Liquidity management involves finding the right balance of stocks and flows Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Current Liquidity Index Cash assets t-1 + CFFO t CLI = --------------------------------N/P t-1 + CMLTD t-1 $20 + $2,906 CLI = ------------------ = 1.78 $1,575 + $71 CLI 1992 3.21 1993 2.65 1994 1.34 1995 1.78 W.T. Grant’s current liquidity index ran at a deficit. Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Lambda Initial liquid Total anticipated net cash flow reserve + during the analysis horizon Lambda = ------------------------------------------------------------------Uncertainty about the net cash flow during the analysis horizon Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Financial Flexibility Sustainable Growth Rate Concept: Uses New Assets gS(A/S) = Sources = New Equity + New Debt = m(S+gS)(1-d) + m(S+gS)(1-d)(D/E) m(1-d)[1 + (D/E)] g = ---------------------------------(A/S) - {m(1-d)[1 + (D/E)]} .0346 x (1 - .1282) x (1 + 1.4590) g = ------------------------------------------------- = 23.30% .3926 - [.0346 x (1 - .1282)(1 + 1.4590)] calculation uses 1994 data to calculateCopyright the sustainable 1995 g. 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company Summary Chapter introduced basic concepts of: – – – solvency liquidity financial flexibility Solvency: an accounting concept comparing assets to liabilities Liquidity: related to a firm’s ability to pay for its current obligations in a timely fashion with minimal costs Financial flexibility: related to a firm’s overall financial structure and if financial policies allows firm enough flexibility to take advantage of unforeseen opportunities. Copyright 1998 by Harcourt Brace &Company